Jose Reyes is Back in New York…But How Should We Feel About It?
Figuring out the right way to receive Jose Reyes’ return to the New York Mets.
Jose, Jose, Jose, Jo…the whole “prodigal son returns” narrative takes a bit of a hit when the prodigal son is returning in the wake of a domestic abuse suspension, and no one else in the league will touch him, doesn’t it? Alright, let’s not dust off the old Jose Reyes jerseys just yet.
A week and a half after a team official said there was “virtually no chance” of a reunion, Reyes is once again a New York Met. His second stint with the ball club will (hopefully) serve as a much needed spark to an injury laden offense that currently ranks 29th in the league in batting average, 28th in runs scored, and 24th in on-base percentage. The move itself is a mutually beneficial one–it gives the Mets the unique opportunity of enhancing their bench mid season with a former all-star, and for Reyes, he’s found a team desperate enough to add him to their roster. He’s providing the team with an upgrade from the lowly, yet lovable Ty Kelly (currently hitting .148).
But the Reyes homecoming also provides the fanbase with a dilemma. During his 11 seasons in New York, Jose Reyes was a fan favorite, beloved for his energy and childlike demeanor on the diamond. He truly enjoyed playing the game, and it showed. And that’s what resonated so strongly with New York fans. But now he returns under a very different light. Reyes is the prodigal son returning home. But he’s also returning as a man who assaulted his wife in a Maui hotel room. He’s coming back not as part of a blockbuster deadline trade, or as a free agent on a 5-year deal, but as a spousal abuser making a prorated portion of the $507,500 MLB minimum.
So how are Mets fans supposed to receive a former all star coming home? What are they supposed to do when he makes his Citi Field debut? Does he get the standard standing ovation that any fan favorite would get? Does everyone sit on their hands in silence? Something uncomfortably in between?
It’s a sports dilemma we’ve become far too accustomed with handling over the past few years. Ray Rice, Greg Hardy, Jared Sullinger, Ray McDonald–the list goes on. Each incident forces us into deep moral thought, and questions and conversations about how we value the actions of our athletes off the field, and along side those ones on the field. For the teams that employ these guys, the decisions often seem to boil down to balancing on-field ability, with the potential image hit. Ray Rice wasn’t run out of the NFL just because he hit his then fiancee. He’s out of the league because the league possesses a seemingly unlimited number of capable running backs. On the other end of the spectrum, the Dallas Cowboys brought in Greg Hardy, who was ardently unapologetic about his role in alleged domestic violence incidents. But hey, he’s great at getting to the quarterback.
For the Mets it turns out, all it took was a few injuries around the infield for them to be swayed. And that’s okay. They saw a hole in their roster, and were presented with a rare, (relatively) easy fix. In the end, it is all about what happens on the field isn’t it? We can all make our moral stands about it now, but if in September Jose Reyes comes up with a huge game-winning hit, those same people who grandstand today, will be behind him then. And that too, is okay.
It’s an imperfect situation, and one that certainly doesn’t have to be absolute. It can be nuanced. Mets fans can 100% root for the man on the field, and still shy away from the one off of it. I’m sure there are plenty of people currently rummaging through their attics searching for their old Jose Reyes gear. And there are plenty of others who will recoil at the sight when Jose Reyes makes his debut. The one thing that can be said for sure, is that if he performs and this team makes another run in the playoffs, those “Jose” chants will be loud, and they will be sweet
Jose, Jose, Jose, Jo…the whole “prodigal son returns” narrative takes a bit of a hit when the prodigal son is returning in the wake of a domestic abuse suspension, and no one else in the league will touch him, doesn’t it? Alright, let’s not dust off the old Jose Reyes jerseys just yet.
A week and a half after a team official said there was “virtually no chance” of a reunion, Reyes is once again a New York Met. His second stint with the ball club will (hopefully) serve as a much needed spark to an injury laden offense that currently ranks 29th in the league in batting average, 28th in runs scored, and 24th in on-base percentage. The move itself is a mutually beneficial one–it gives the Mets the unique opportunity of enhancing their bench mid season with a former all-star, and for Reyes, he’s found a team desperate enough to add him to their roster. He’s providing the team with an upgrade from the lowly, yet lovable Ty Kelly (currently hitting .148).
But the Reyes homecoming also provides the fanbase with a dilemma. During his 11 seasons in New York, Jose Reyes was a fan favorite, beloved for his energy and childlike demeanor on the diamond. He truly enjoyed playing the game, and it showed. And that’s what resonated so strongly with New York fans. But now he returns under a very different light. Reyes is the prodigal son returning home. But he’s also returning as a man who assaulted his wife in a Maui hotel room. He’s coming back not as part of a blockbuster deadline trade, or as a free agent on a 5-year deal, but as a spousal abuser making a prorated portion of the $507,500 MLB minimum.
So how are Mets fans supposed to receive a former all star coming home? What are they supposed to do when he makes his Citi Field debut? Does he get the standard standing ovation that any fan favorite would get? Does everyone sit on their hands in silence? Something uncomfortably in between?
It’s a sports dilemma we’ve become far too accustomed with handling over the past few years. Ray Rice, Greg Hardy, Jared Sullinger, Ray McDonald–the list goes on. Each incident forces us into deep moral thought, and questions and conversations about how we value the actions of our athletes off the field, and along side those ones on the field. For the teams that employ these guys, the decisions often seem to boil down to balancing on-field ability, with the potential image hit. Ray Rice wasn’t run out of the NFL just because he hit his then fiancee. He’s out of the league because the league possesses a seemingly unlimited number of capable running backs. On the other end of the spectrum, the Dallas Cowboys brought in Greg Hardy, who was ardently unapologetic about his role in alleged domestic violence incidents. But hey, he’s great at getting to the quarterback.
For the Mets it turns out, all it took was a few injuries around the infield for them to be swayed. And that’s okay. They saw a hole in their roster, and were presented with a rare, (relatively) easy fix. In the end, it is all about what happens on the field isn’t it? We can all make our moral stands about it now, but if in September Jose Reyes comes up with a huge game-winning hit, those same people who grandstand today, will be behind him then. And that too, is okay.
It’s an imperfect situation, and one that certainly doesn’t have to be absolute. It can be nuanced. Mets fans can 100% root for the man on the field, and still shy away from the one off of it. I’m sure there are plenty of people currently rummaging through their attics searching for their old Jose Reyes gear. And there are plenty of others who will recoil at the sight when Jose Reyes makes his debut. The one thing that can be said for sure, is that if he performs and this team makes another run in the playoffs, those “Jose” chants will be loud, and they will be sweet
HardBallSports Podcast Ep: 4 (3-15-16)
As the NCAA tournament arrives, I talk college hoops with Hartford, Connecticut's Stockton Farmer. We discuss Stockton's UConn bias, the bracket, the teams we like this year, some upsets to look out for, one and done culture, and I even attempt to rationalize Syracuse making the tournament (I barely could).
7 Rules to Follow While Filling Out Your NCAA Tournament Bracket
By Eli Lederman
3-14-16
No sport is harder to get your arms around than college basketball. There is no conceivable way to follow 351 teams from 49 states (sorry, Alaska) that play 30 or so games every year. It's like trying to eat at an all-you-can-eat buffet with 13 bars and every style of cuisine imaginable. There’s no way to consume it all. How are you supposed to know that Notre Dame ranks 313th in 3-point defense? Or that Temple, who narrowly fit inside the bubble to earn a No. 10 seed, turns the ball over less than all but one team in the country, and that No. 2 seed West Virginia ranks 299th in turnovers?
When the field trims from 351 teams to 68, it gets a little bit easier. But before you start piecing together your NCAA Tournament brackets, here are 7 rules to follow while filling out your bracket. (First tip for free: Always do it in pencil first)
Trust the upperclassmen
In any given year, upperclassmen are a good bet. They’re talented, they’re smart, and they have far more experience than any one-and-done Freshman star does. Teams led by seniors always seem to stick around in the tournament. But this time around, seniors are to be given even more trust. This year, upperclassmen took college basketball back from the one-and-done culture that has permeated the sport over the last decade or so. Making up more than half of the finalists for the Wooden Award, seniors across the country dominated college basketball, and gave us the most entertaining regular season in recent memory. And there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue into the tournament. They’ve been center stage all season long, and I anticipate the Final Four to be made up of teams led by seniors. Caution: do not, under any cirrumstance pick against Buddy Hield, Denzel Valentine, Perry Ellis, or Brice Johnson any time before the Elite Eight. They all project as NBA talents, and they aren’t going to drop games to USC or Cincinnati. This is the year of the seniors.
Pay attention the last 10 games
I maintain to this day that in 2013, Syracuse had the best team in college basketball. They had the most talent, they beat all of the best teams, and they were the among the most well coached. They started off 25-0. They were for real. But they also ended the regular season 2-5 down the stretch, and got bounced in the second round of the tournament by Dayton. Teams that limp into the tournament are the ones to beware of. The tournament is not about who dominated in December, it’s about who is playing the best basketball in March. I'm afraid that this year it's Duke who you need to stay away from. They closed out the season 3-4 in their last 7 games, they don’t rebound well, and they have no real interior presence to take on a strong big man if they run into one. This is not their year. As far as teams who are coming in hot, I would look at UConn and Kentucky. Both teams are finally healthy, and are now firing on all cylinders coming out of their respective conference tournaments. The tournament is all about who the hot team is, and the way a team enters it can be a strong indicator of how they’ll fare.
3-14-16
No sport is harder to get your arms around than college basketball. There is no conceivable way to follow 351 teams from 49 states (sorry, Alaska) that play 30 or so games every year. It's like trying to eat at an all-you-can-eat buffet with 13 bars and every style of cuisine imaginable. There’s no way to consume it all. How are you supposed to know that Notre Dame ranks 313th in 3-point defense? Or that Temple, who narrowly fit inside the bubble to earn a No. 10 seed, turns the ball over less than all but one team in the country, and that No. 2 seed West Virginia ranks 299th in turnovers?
When the field trims from 351 teams to 68, it gets a little bit easier. But before you start piecing together your NCAA Tournament brackets, here are 7 rules to follow while filling out your bracket. (First tip for free: Always do it in pencil first)
Trust the upperclassmen
In any given year, upperclassmen are a good bet. They’re talented, they’re smart, and they have far more experience than any one-and-done Freshman star does. Teams led by seniors always seem to stick around in the tournament. But this time around, seniors are to be given even more trust. This year, upperclassmen took college basketball back from the one-and-done culture that has permeated the sport over the last decade or so. Making up more than half of the finalists for the Wooden Award, seniors across the country dominated college basketball, and gave us the most entertaining regular season in recent memory. And there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue into the tournament. They’ve been center stage all season long, and I anticipate the Final Four to be made up of teams led by seniors. Caution: do not, under any cirrumstance pick against Buddy Hield, Denzel Valentine, Perry Ellis, or Brice Johnson any time before the Elite Eight. They all project as NBA talents, and they aren’t going to drop games to USC or Cincinnati. This is the year of the seniors.
Pay attention the last 10 games
I maintain to this day that in 2013, Syracuse had the best team in college basketball. They had the most talent, they beat all of the best teams, and they were the among the most well coached. They started off 25-0. They were for real. But they also ended the regular season 2-5 down the stretch, and got bounced in the second round of the tournament by Dayton. Teams that limp into the tournament are the ones to beware of. The tournament is not about who dominated in December, it’s about who is playing the best basketball in March. I'm afraid that this year it's Duke who you need to stay away from. They closed out the season 3-4 in their last 7 games, they don’t rebound well, and they have no real interior presence to take on a strong big man if they run into one. This is not their year. As far as teams who are coming in hot, I would look at UConn and Kentucky. Both teams are finally healthy, and are now firing on all cylinders coming out of their respective conference tournaments. The tournament is all about who the hot team is, and the way a team enters it can be a strong indicator of how they’ll fare.
The Steph Curry factor
This wouldn’t be a piece of sports writing written in 2016 without mention of Stephen Curry. He had to make it in here somewhere. Players who possess the Steph Curry factor are capable of going off at any given time, and single handedly carrying their team on a deep tournament run. They need to be able to score in droves, defend well, and ultimately have the ability to just take over a game. Curry did it in 2008, Kemba Walker did it for UConn in 2011, and it may very well happen again in 2016. The guys in the tournament who possess all of those capabilities are Buddy Hield, Denzel Valentine, Kay Felder, and Daniel Hamilton. There’s a very solid chance Felder and Hamilton don’t even sniff the Sweet 16. They don’t play on the country’s best teams. But any of these guys has the ability to turn the switch on, and take over the tournament.
Style Matters
In the same way Marco Rubio seems to believe size matters in the race for the White House, style matters in March. In the tournament, teams face opponents they’ve never seen before, and often times it totally throws them off their games. Particular matchups in the tournament could spell doom for system teams who refuse to stray from their schemes no matter what. Virginia and Villanova are my two biggest concerns there. They stick to their game, and could possibly do so to a fault. Conversely, unorthodox systems like Holy Cross’ 1-3-1 zone come in handy for lower seeds looking to pull off an upset. (By the way, I absolutely love the fact that Holy Cross runs a 1-3-1 zone. It’s an old school system, by an old school university. It’s great.) Typically, teams who commit to their systems commit to them for a reason, because it works, and the best teams won’t be thrown off of their games. But the teams that get upset early on often lose not because they don’t have the talent, but because they can’t adjust to whatever ploy mid-major X throws at them.
Go with the strong guards
Outside of Karl-Anthony Towns, Frank Kaminsky, Jahlil Okafor, Mitch McGary, Anthony Davis, and Joakim Noah, when was the last time you saw a big man lead a team to the Final Four? Alright, fine big men are still alive and well in college basketball. But the real key to winning a title in college is a strong backcourt. If you look at recent history, it’s the talented guard combos that go far in March. Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier, Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Napier and Ryan Boatright, Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook–the list goes on. College basketball ultimately comes down to guard play, and teams with talented backcourts succeed in the tournament. This year, there are three guard combos with the ability to have the same type of impact as those from the recent past. Jamal Murray & Tyler Ulis (Kentucky), Melo Trimble & Rasheed Sulaimon (Maryland), and Tyrone Wallace & Jabari Bird (Cal), are all capable of taking this tournament over and propelling their teams to the top. Each of the past 5 NCAA champions have relied upon a pair star guards, I don’t see why this year will be any different.
The sleeper team with potential for a fun bench can be scary
If there’s a team seeded No. 10 or higher that you really like to make a deep tournament run, but are still a little unsure about, this rule may help as a deciding factor. Every mid-major that’s made a relatively deep run in the NCAA tournament over the past 5 years or so has had a bench full of guys with killer celebrations. I’m serious. Want some examples? The Florida Gulf coast team that knocked off Georgetown and San Diego State en route to the Sweet 16 in 2013 was equally, if not more talented on the bench than they were on the court.
Gonzaga University, easily the most successful mid-major in college basketball in recent history, has always had fun guys on it’s benches too.
I can’t prove that a fun, energized bench has an impact on the court (I spent some time trying), but the correlation between underdogs who go on deep tournament runs, and the fun benches that they almost always possess cannot be argued with. If you think about it, it makes sense. Basketball, more than any other sport, is about togetherness and team chemistry, and you’re not likely to find a group of guys that hate each other pulling off elaborate celebrations on the bench. Bench guys dabbing and falling into each other's arms is a solid indicator of the type of energy and chemistry a team has.
So what type of criteria are we looking for in determining a potentially fun bench? I’ve done my research, and a majority of benches in the past who have had great celebrations possess one of three archetypes: a 5’6 walk-on senior who has played a grand total of 3 minutes in his entire college career, a foreign dude with great hair, or a center with surprising gymnastic abilities. Every fun bench has one these three guys. The best have two. The day we see a team with all three of those guys is the day college basketball as we know it ends. The teams that fall under this umbrella for this year’s tournament? The obvious choice would have been Monmouth, but the committee screwed them, so we need some back ups. Green Bay showed some promise in its conference tournament, and there can’t be much to do in Arkansas-Little Rock other than come up with coordinated bench celebrations. Those are my two sleeper picks. Look, don’t cross off Kansas or Michigan State in favor of a team with a bench that can dance, but don’t sleep on the fun bench in the tournament.
Guess
Forget the first 6 rules. They don’t mean a thing. We’ve all been here before. You work tirelessly over your bracket, crunching matchups and algorithms until you have that bullet-proof bracket. Then you lose to the person in your pool who chose their final Four based on school colors. The NCAA tournament is a total crapshoot. There’s no way to predict it. I even did some math to prove it.
Fine, I found someone else’s math that proves it. Every year the tournament is getting more unpredictable. According to Bracketscience.com, 2015 set another record with a 21.4 percent deviation from “perfect high-seed dominance.” The previous record of 20.8 percent was set in 2014. In the first 25 years of the modern bracket, the average NCAA tournament deviated from higher-seed perfection by 13.6 percent. In the last five years, that deviation is 19.2 percent, more than 40 percent wilder. Coincidence? I don’t think so. There are lots of reasons that explain it: one-and-done, rise of the Mid-Majors, the three-point equalizer, the vanishing big man, mis-seeding mayhem, the perils of parity, havoc of shifting rules. Last year saw a record 15 significant upsets, defined as a seed gap of four or more. There’s no good way of picking your bracket, so don’t stress over it too much (I’ve already ripped up 4 of my own), and just have fun.
Enjoy the tournament everybody!
Knicks Future Brighter Than You May Think
By Eli Lederman
3-3-16
With picks and cap space galore on the precipice, the future of the New York Knicks is exciting–so long as the front-office can get out of its own way of course.
It’s March. I’m Spurs’d-out. I’m Clippers’d-out. I’m sick of talking about the dismal Sixers. I can’t stand to look at another 6-24 Kobe box score. I’m even growing a little tired of the Warriors hysteria–seriously, how many pieces with titles like “The Miracle of Steph Curry” or “Steph Curry Is On Pace To Hit 102 Home Runs” can one person read? Fine, the answer is an absurd amount, but I truly am starting to get bored with them. We’re 4 months into the NBA season, and by this point sports media has beaten nearly every storyline imaginable into the ground, much of it being done with the same subtlety and ferocity Blake Griffin exerted on his team’s equipment manager. Just like the league itself, basketball media gets sort of rundown in the month of March. There just aren’t many new storylines to talk about. So rather than giving you yet another timely, relevant piece about the underappreciated Spurs, or whether the Thunder can really challenge the Warriors in the playoffs, or if the Raptors can usurp the Cavs in the East or if it even matters (these were all potential topics. If that’s what you were looking for, I apologize now, and urge you to head over to RealGM.com) I’m going to take a look at one of the league’s most middling franchises, who possess about 0% ability to impact any aspect of the league for the remainder of the NBA season. Ladies and Gentleman, let’s talk some New York Knicks basketball.
(Before you rush to the comment section to bash me for that “ability to impact” statement, let me clarify. The Knicks aren’t involved in the playoff race, and they are on the losing end of a complex pick swap with Denver and Toronto that would give Neil deGrasse Tyson fits. They’re still solid enough to spoil a playoff team's seeding, or maybe even knock someone out in the season’s final week or so, but as far the playoffs and the draft go, the Knicks are irrelevant)
The New York Knicks essentially threw this season away the second they fired Derek Fisher, and left the team in the hands of Kurt Rambis. That’s not to say that Fisher wasn’t doing that himself; in that sense he was doing a great job. His mismanaged rotations, and the fact that he definitely stole an ex-teammates wife, and might have stolen one of his own player’s girlfriends filled the dysfunction quota necessary to run this team into the ground. But someone in New York’s front-office must have missed the fact that Rambis gave Ryan Gomes more minutes than Kevin Love on a 15-win Timberwolves team in 2010 before they offered him the interim job. That’s the type of thing that should get you blackballed for a little while.
By all accounts, Kurt Rambis is one of the nicest guys around the league, I’m just not sure he’s meant to be an NBA head coach. If Derek Fisher was a man playing checkers among others playing chess, then Kurt Rambis is playing Tic Tac Toe. In the 8 games since he’s has taken over the team, the reeling Knicks have won just 2 games, and have lost by double digits to the Brooklyn Nets. Even Carmelo Anthony, who has pledged his undying loyalty to the organization through everything short of a sharknado, reportedly will be taking some time after the season to think about his future. This season has essentially become a lost one for the New York Knicks, and worse yet, they have no control over their first-round pick (tied up in the aforementioned crazy pick swap with Toronto and Denver). Not having that first-rounder takes any comfort there might have been out of the Knicks’ struggles, and only makes the losing more torturous than it ordinarily would be.
3-3-16
With picks and cap space galore on the precipice, the future of the New York Knicks is exciting–so long as the front-office can get out of its own way of course.
It’s March. I’m Spurs’d-out. I’m Clippers’d-out. I’m sick of talking about the dismal Sixers. I can’t stand to look at another 6-24 Kobe box score. I’m even growing a little tired of the Warriors hysteria–seriously, how many pieces with titles like “The Miracle of Steph Curry” or “Steph Curry Is On Pace To Hit 102 Home Runs” can one person read? Fine, the answer is an absurd amount, but I truly am starting to get bored with them. We’re 4 months into the NBA season, and by this point sports media has beaten nearly every storyline imaginable into the ground, much of it being done with the same subtlety and ferocity Blake Griffin exerted on his team’s equipment manager. Just like the league itself, basketball media gets sort of rundown in the month of March. There just aren’t many new storylines to talk about. So rather than giving you yet another timely, relevant piece about the underappreciated Spurs, or whether the Thunder can really challenge the Warriors in the playoffs, or if the Raptors can usurp the Cavs in the East or if it even matters (these were all potential topics. If that’s what you were looking for, I apologize now, and urge you to head over to RealGM.com) I’m going to take a look at one of the league’s most middling franchises, who possess about 0% ability to impact any aspect of the league for the remainder of the NBA season. Ladies and Gentleman, let’s talk some New York Knicks basketball.
(Before you rush to the comment section to bash me for that “ability to impact” statement, let me clarify. The Knicks aren’t involved in the playoff race, and they are on the losing end of a complex pick swap with Denver and Toronto that would give Neil deGrasse Tyson fits. They’re still solid enough to spoil a playoff team's seeding, or maybe even knock someone out in the season’s final week or so, but as far the playoffs and the draft go, the Knicks are irrelevant)
The New York Knicks essentially threw this season away the second they fired Derek Fisher, and left the team in the hands of Kurt Rambis. That’s not to say that Fisher wasn’t doing that himself; in that sense he was doing a great job. His mismanaged rotations, and the fact that he definitely stole an ex-teammates wife, and might have stolen one of his own player’s girlfriends filled the dysfunction quota necessary to run this team into the ground. But someone in New York’s front-office must have missed the fact that Rambis gave Ryan Gomes more minutes than Kevin Love on a 15-win Timberwolves team in 2010 before they offered him the interim job. That’s the type of thing that should get you blackballed for a little while.
By all accounts, Kurt Rambis is one of the nicest guys around the league, I’m just not sure he’s meant to be an NBA head coach. If Derek Fisher was a man playing checkers among others playing chess, then Kurt Rambis is playing Tic Tac Toe. In the 8 games since he’s has taken over the team, the reeling Knicks have won just 2 games, and have lost by double digits to the Brooklyn Nets. Even Carmelo Anthony, who has pledged his undying loyalty to the organization through everything short of a sharknado, reportedly will be taking some time after the season to think about his future. This season has essentially become a lost one for the New York Knicks, and worse yet, they have no control over their first-round pick (tied up in the aforementioned crazy pick swap with Toronto and Denver). Not having that first-rounder takes any comfort there might have been out of the Knicks’ struggles, and only makes the losing more torturous than it ordinarily would be.
The blame for this particular lost Knicks season doesn’t fall on Rambis, or even Fisher, or any Knicks player for that matter. This poorly constructed roster, and the fact that the organization is once again without a potential top-ten lottery pick is on the front-office. The organization has attempted to pair Carmelo Anthony with passable surrounding talent by taking on risky big-money contracts, and has completely sabotaged their own ability to build from within by dealing away nearly every pick in their possession over the past 7 years. The last 15 years of the Knicks front-office belongs on the first page of the handbook Mikhail Prokhorov is going to give new Nets GM Sean Marks on how not to run an NBA organization. Between the feckless Isiah Thomas era, and the general dysfunction that’s been displayed since then, there may not be an organization that has been run worse than New York’s. But for as poorly as the Knicks have performed since the turn of the century, from the court to all the way up to the front-office, the future isn’t as bleak as you might think. Over the next five to eight years, the New York Knicks will have the opportunity to turn things around, and to turn themselves into a strong NBA team.
What is the one thing Knicks fans are constantly complaining about not having? Among many others, what is the reason New Yorkers detest James Dolan so much? How did Kristaps Porzingis end up in New York this year? The answer to all three questions? Draft Picks! I seriously believe that Daryl Morey convinced James Dolan over a few drinks in Vegas during the summer league in 2008 that having first-round draft picks was a bad thing. Tell me that doesn’t sound like both of them? I say this because after drafting Jordan Hill in 2009, the Knicks have drafted just three players with their own first-round pick, and Porzingis is one of them. Since then, Dolan and the Knicks have dealt away nearly every draft pick that they could. After this upcoming draft in June, the Knicks will have been without a first-round selection in five of the last eight NBA drafts. Unless you're consistently bringing in big-time free agents, and making particularly shrewd trades, neither of which the Knicks are known for, you can’t build a winning team this way.
The good news? After this year, the Knicks possess all of their first-round draft picks through 2023 and beyond. Assuming they hold onto all of these picks, the Knicks will be able to stock their roster first-round draft choices on rookie-level deals for a while– a stark contrast from what we’ve seen in the past. And while I don’t have faith in almost any other facet of the New York Knicks organization, I actually think that their scouting department drafts well. When they have had their first-round picks over the last seven years, the team has taken Iman Shumpert (2011), Tim Hardaway Jr. (2013), and of course Kristaps Porzingis this past summer–all three of whom have turned into solid NBA talents at the very least. That’s what makes the Knicks not having their picks even more frustrating. When they have the picks, they draft well. They just never have them. Smart draft choices are the first step to rebuilding a team, and with their picks, the Knicks will certainly have the opportunity to do so.
The other factor that has contributed to the peril of the New York Knicks organization in recent years has been bad contracts. While they traded away a majority of their picks, the Knicks also focused their efforts on taking on big-contracts, many of which just didn’t work out. Honestly, I can’t think of any that did. Take a second to think about the last time New York traded for a 28+-year old player, making over 9 figures who they were happy with in the end–I’ll wait.
*Twiddling my thumbs*
*Humming Born in the USA*
You couldn’t think of anyone right? That’s because it’s never happened. The team made these risky moves in an attempt to surround Carmelo Anthony with talent, but instead gutted the team, and hamstrung the front-office when they tried to reshuffle the roster. But for as rough as watching Jose Calderon or Andrea Bargnani has been, I promise you, the light at the end of this hellish bad-contract tunnel will soon be within the Knicks’ view.
The only contracts the Knicks have on the books past next season are Carmelo Anthony’s, Robin Lopez’s, and the rookie deals of Kristaps Porzingis, and Jerian Grant. That means the front-office will be free from Jose Calderon’s ball and chain contract, and will also have the freed up cap space provided by the expiring contracts of Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams. This leaves the team with loads of flexibility in free agency and in trades.
We’re also assuming in this scenario that Carmelo Anthony will still be on the team past next season. Melo is on the wrong side of thirty, and now finds himself in a situation with no real prospect of contending within the next few seasons. How long can he continue to say that New York is where he wants to win, when he knows it’s just not going to happen here? Carmelo may make a push for the team to send him elsewhere sometime in the near future, and if that did happen, it be wouldn’t such a bad thing for the Knicks either. Like I said, this team isn’t contending in the next year or two. There’s no logical way for them to propel themselves into contention without either giving away their picks and taking on big contracts (for some reason I feel like that won’t work out for them), and/or hopping Kristaps Porzingis up on PEDs...wait, I think they may already be doing that second part. If the Knicks aren’t going to be seriously contending for a championship, there’s no reason for them to be holding onto an aging star making big bucks. The best move for both parties would be to find a new home for Carmelo Anthony.
What is the one thing Knicks fans are constantly complaining about not having? Among many others, what is the reason New Yorkers detest James Dolan so much? How did Kristaps Porzingis end up in New York this year? The answer to all three questions? Draft Picks! I seriously believe that Daryl Morey convinced James Dolan over a few drinks in Vegas during the summer league in 2008 that having first-round draft picks was a bad thing. Tell me that doesn’t sound like both of them? I say this because after drafting Jordan Hill in 2009, the Knicks have drafted just three players with their own first-round pick, and Porzingis is one of them. Since then, Dolan and the Knicks have dealt away nearly every draft pick that they could. After this upcoming draft in June, the Knicks will have been without a first-round selection in five of the last eight NBA drafts. Unless you're consistently bringing in big-time free agents, and making particularly shrewd trades, neither of which the Knicks are known for, you can’t build a winning team this way.
The good news? After this year, the Knicks possess all of their first-round draft picks through 2023 and beyond. Assuming they hold onto all of these picks, the Knicks will be able to stock their roster first-round draft choices on rookie-level deals for a while– a stark contrast from what we’ve seen in the past. And while I don’t have faith in almost any other facet of the New York Knicks organization, I actually think that their scouting department drafts well. When they have had their first-round picks over the last seven years, the team has taken Iman Shumpert (2011), Tim Hardaway Jr. (2013), and of course Kristaps Porzingis this past summer–all three of whom have turned into solid NBA talents at the very least. That’s what makes the Knicks not having their picks even more frustrating. When they have the picks, they draft well. They just never have them. Smart draft choices are the first step to rebuilding a team, and with their picks, the Knicks will certainly have the opportunity to do so.
The other factor that has contributed to the peril of the New York Knicks organization in recent years has been bad contracts. While they traded away a majority of their picks, the Knicks also focused their efforts on taking on big-contracts, many of which just didn’t work out. Honestly, I can’t think of any that did. Take a second to think about the last time New York traded for a 28+-year old player, making over 9 figures who they were happy with in the end–I’ll wait.
*Twiddling my thumbs*
*Humming Born in the USA*
You couldn’t think of anyone right? That’s because it’s never happened. The team made these risky moves in an attempt to surround Carmelo Anthony with talent, but instead gutted the team, and hamstrung the front-office when they tried to reshuffle the roster. But for as rough as watching Jose Calderon or Andrea Bargnani has been, I promise you, the light at the end of this hellish bad-contract tunnel will soon be within the Knicks’ view.
The only contracts the Knicks have on the books past next season are Carmelo Anthony’s, Robin Lopez’s, and the rookie deals of Kristaps Porzingis, and Jerian Grant. That means the front-office will be free from Jose Calderon’s ball and chain contract, and will also have the freed up cap space provided by the expiring contracts of Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams. This leaves the team with loads of flexibility in free agency and in trades.
We’re also assuming in this scenario that Carmelo Anthony will still be on the team past next season. Melo is on the wrong side of thirty, and now finds himself in a situation with no real prospect of contending within the next few seasons. How long can he continue to say that New York is where he wants to win, when he knows it’s just not going to happen here? Carmelo may make a push for the team to send him elsewhere sometime in the near future, and if that did happen, it be wouldn’t such a bad thing for the Knicks either. Like I said, this team isn’t contending in the next year or two. There’s no logical way for them to propel themselves into contention without either giving away their picks and taking on big contracts (for some reason I feel like that won’t work out for them), and/or hopping Kristaps Porzingis up on PEDs...wait, I think they may already be doing that second part. If the Knicks aren’t going to be seriously contending for a championship, there’s no reason for them to be holding onto an aging star making big bucks. The best move for both parties would be to find a new home for Carmelo Anthony.
With or without Melo’s gargantuan contract on the books, the Knicks are still going to have a ton of cap space to work with in the near future. They could take their usual route with this new financial freedom, and try to go after big names and big money deals. But that’s never really worked out for them, and for all of the fanfare about stars wanting to come play in a big city like New York, the results really don’t back that notion up. Outside of Carmelo, who arrived via trade, name me the last big star who came to New York? Stephon Marbury? Yikes. The Knicks have tried extensively and have failed miserably, employing the big-name free agent strategy. It’s obvious that it’s not one that they can succeed with going forward. The better route for the Knicks to take is to build from within through the draft, and instead use their cap space to add strong team guys who can complement the core they build through the draft. Instead of throwing everything they have at big names like Kevin Love or Russell Westbrook, focus on bringing in a Paul Millsap type. The big name strategy hasn’t worked for the Knicks for years now.
It’s time to try something new.
Alright, so I’ve laid out the reasons why the Knicks future may actually have some promise to it. Picks and cap space are the building blocks for putting together a strong team, and the Knicks are going to have both in bulk. But that doesn’t mean New York is guaranteed a parade down the Canyon of Heros within the next 5-7 years. We’ve seen organizations who appeared to be set for the future with picks and cap space, and still manage to blow it. The Knicks themselves were in a pretty similar position around 2010 after they had sorted out the mess that Isaiah Thomas left them in. Evidently, they were unable to leverage their situation into success. Having the pieces to turn a team around does not guarantee success.
At this point, it’s hard to wholeheartedly trust that New York’s front-office will handle this opportunity correctly. They’ve done nothing this millennium to make anyone think that they’ll use their draft picks and cap space responsibly. But just like the dog that craps on the rug one too many times–and in the case of the Knicks about 78 times too many-the only way to prove itself is to not repeat the same mistakes. The Knicks will be in a unique situation (unique for them), and the only way to prove they can handle it is by being smart. The first few years of Phil Jackson’s time in New York would indicate that they can do that. Despite hiring Derek Fisher, and nearly trading the pick that turned into Kristaps Porzingis, Jackson has made some intelligent moves, and is beginning to show the rest of the league that the there’s a chance that the Knicks organization is not completely inept. Not exactly a momentous achievement, but relative to past iterations of the Knicks, it’s an improvement.
For the first time in a while, the future of the New York Knicks is actually in the hands of the organization. Finally with picks, cap space, and potential star in Kristaps Porzingis, the slate is nearly clean, and the Knicks can move forward into the future with a real plan to turn the team into a contender. The only question now is whether or not James Dolan and the front-office will be able to get out of it’s own way. And that’s one that no one has the answer to.
It’s time to try something new.
Alright, so I’ve laid out the reasons why the Knicks future may actually have some promise to it. Picks and cap space are the building blocks for putting together a strong team, and the Knicks are going to have both in bulk. But that doesn’t mean New York is guaranteed a parade down the Canyon of Heros within the next 5-7 years. We’ve seen organizations who appeared to be set for the future with picks and cap space, and still manage to blow it. The Knicks themselves were in a pretty similar position around 2010 after they had sorted out the mess that Isaiah Thomas left them in. Evidently, they were unable to leverage their situation into success. Having the pieces to turn a team around does not guarantee success.
At this point, it’s hard to wholeheartedly trust that New York’s front-office will handle this opportunity correctly. They’ve done nothing this millennium to make anyone think that they’ll use their draft picks and cap space responsibly. But just like the dog that craps on the rug one too many times–and in the case of the Knicks about 78 times too many-the only way to prove itself is to not repeat the same mistakes. The Knicks will be in a unique situation (unique for them), and the only way to prove they can handle it is by being smart. The first few years of Phil Jackson’s time in New York would indicate that they can do that. Despite hiring Derek Fisher, and nearly trading the pick that turned into Kristaps Porzingis, Jackson has made some intelligent moves, and is beginning to show the rest of the league that the there’s a chance that the Knicks organization is not completely inept. Not exactly a momentous achievement, but relative to past iterations of the Knicks, it’s an improvement.
For the first time in a while, the future of the New York Knicks is actually in the hands of the organization. Finally with picks, cap space, and potential star in Kristaps Porzingis, the slate is nearly clean, and the Knicks can move forward into the future with a real plan to turn the team into a contender. The only question now is whether or not James Dolan and the front-office will be able to get out of it’s own way. And that’s one that no one has the answer to.
HardBallSports Podcast Ep:3
(3-3-16)
On the official reboot of the HardBallSports Podcast, I have my brother Alex on to discuss NBA Basketball, a little soccer, OJ vs. The People, and even a little terrible stand up comedy. Enjoy and share the pod, and check out the links in our bio. Look for more pods to come on a consistent basis.
How the Oklahoma City Thunder Can Maximize the Value of Dion Waiters
Also published on SirCharlesinCharge.com
By Eli Lederman
2-24-16
Something in me always knew that Dion Waiters’ destiny was to have a full game’s-worth of his gaffes immortalized in a youtube clip set to Celine Dion’s My Heart Will Go On. No seriously, it really happened. Don’t believe me?
Watch the magical creation for yourself:
By Eli Lederman
2-24-16
Something in me always knew that Dion Waiters’ destiny was to have a full game’s-worth of his gaffes immortalized in a youtube clip set to Celine Dion’s My Heart Will Go On. No seriously, it really happened. Don’t believe me?
Watch the magical creation for yourself:
I really hope Dion knows some Mandarin, because my clairvoyant alter-ego sees his inevitable stint in China coming in the very near future. The man is terrible. His game has fallen completely off the map, his confidence is close to reaching Jeb Bush levels, and his play has become detrimental to the success of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Waiters’ problem?
He suffers from Jamal Crawford syndrome. In fact he’s the face of the disease. Don’t know what Jamal Crawford syndrome is? My bad. I’ll explain. Those affected by the affliction possess the unbecoming combo of Kobe Bryant’s ego, JaVale McGee’s basketball IQ, and Jimmer Fredette‘s talent (Jimmer really isn’t a fair comparison for Crawford or Waiters, but he’s back in the NBA for maybe a week, so I thought I’d give him a shoutout).
It’s afflicted numerous NBA players over the years. J.R. Smith is constantly coping with it, Kemba Walker has been terrorized by it, and I think Nate Robinson had it even before Jamal Crawford did. Dion is the proud spokesperson. I’m pretty sure that’s how he plans to subsidize his time in China. That and the money Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are almost definitely paying him NOT to shoot the ball right now.
Waiters has been an awkward fit from the start in Oklahoma City. There’s no doubt about it. His game doesn’t really fit in with the Thunder rotation and his big ego makes it difficult for him to successfully coexist alongside even one star (let alone two). In just over a year in OKC, Waiters has proven to be just another one of the square blocks that like an infant, Sam Presti has tried to push through a circular hole.
Despite being the poster child for the Jamal Crawford Syndrome, and being the poor fit that he really is, Billy Donovan and the Oklahoma City Thunder still have the opportunity transform him into a valuable rotation guy, and maybe, just maybe, save him from having to go to China.
The first step is under Dion’s control, although I’m not so sure how much control he actually has over it. One of the most infuriating aspects of Dion Waiters’ game is his affinity for the long-two. There’s no way anyone in 2016 would take that many deep mid-range jumpers without being under the mob’s thumb or something like that right?
It goes against everything that the advanced stats revolution stands for, and it absolutely infuriates NBA analytics nerds. The value of the long-two rivals only the Vietnamese Dong (Vietnam’s currency, I had to look it up), and my Phil Pressey rookie card in lack of value. Broken down by distance, Waiters’ shooting percentage between 16 feet from the basket and the 3-point line is brutal. He’s taken 113 shots from that area, the 3rd highest amount of any zone. Shooting 31% from there, it’s by far Dion’s worst spot to shoot from.
This shot chart illustrates just how bad he is from just inside the 3-point line:
Waiters’ problem?
He suffers from Jamal Crawford syndrome. In fact he’s the face of the disease. Don’t know what Jamal Crawford syndrome is? My bad. I’ll explain. Those affected by the affliction possess the unbecoming combo of Kobe Bryant’s ego, JaVale McGee’s basketball IQ, and Jimmer Fredette‘s talent (Jimmer really isn’t a fair comparison for Crawford or Waiters, but he’s back in the NBA for maybe a week, so I thought I’d give him a shoutout).
It’s afflicted numerous NBA players over the years. J.R. Smith is constantly coping with it, Kemba Walker has been terrorized by it, and I think Nate Robinson had it even before Jamal Crawford did. Dion is the proud spokesperson. I’m pretty sure that’s how he plans to subsidize his time in China. That and the money Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are almost definitely paying him NOT to shoot the ball right now.
Waiters has been an awkward fit from the start in Oklahoma City. There’s no doubt about it. His game doesn’t really fit in with the Thunder rotation and his big ego makes it difficult for him to successfully coexist alongside even one star (let alone two). In just over a year in OKC, Waiters has proven to be just another one of the square blocks that like an infant, Sam Presti has tried to push through a circular hole.
Despite being the poster child for the Jamal Crawford Syndrome, and being the poor fit that he really is, Billy Donovan and the Oklahoma City Thunder still have the opportunity transform him into a valuable rotation guy, and maybe, just maybe, save him from having to go to China.
The first step is under Dion’s control, although I’m not so sure how much control he actually has over it. One of the most infuriating aspects of Dion Waiters’ game is his affinity for the long-two. There’s no way anyone in 2016 would take that many deep mid-range jumpers without being under the mob’s thumb or something like that right?
It goes against everything that the advanced stats revolution stands for, and it absolutely infuriates NBA analytics nerds. The value of the long-two rivals only the Vietnamese Dong (Vietnam’s currency, I had to look it up), and my Phil Pressey rookie card in lack of value. Broken down by distance, Waiters’ shooting percentage between 16 feet from the basket and the 3-point line is brutal. He’s taken 113 shots from that area, the 3rd highest amount of any zone. Shooting 31% from there, it’s by far Dion’s worst spot to shoot from.
This shot chart illustrates just how bad he is from just inside the 3-point line:
(Shot chart courtesy of Pro Basketball Reference)
Were Waiters to eliminate the long-two out of his game completely, his shooting percentage would jump from 39% to 42%, and would improve his quality on the court in general. It would also greatly reduce the number of emergency room visits in the greater-OKC area by Thunder fans who injure themselves in Waiters-induced rages. By now, it’s got to be a box you can check off at most Oklahoma emergency rooms.
The next two steps go somewhat hand in hand, and are fully at the discretion of head coach Billy Donovan. The issue he has dealt with thus far in OKC is the same oneScott Brooks struggled with: Finding the right starting 5.
Between seemingly constant injuries to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka, and the crippling inconsistency of the Thunder rotation, putting out a strong starting 5 has been a challenge in OKC for several years. Donovan is beginning to get his permanent rotation straight, but in doing so, he’s actually making a big mistake.
Dion Waiters has started just 12 games all season, but he’s been in the starting lineup in each of the Thunder’s last 10 games. The idea appears to be not to force the pressure of starting onto rookie guard Cameron Payne, but the greater impact is felt by Waiters. For Dion, coming off the bench improves nearly every statistical aspect of his game. As a reserve, he takes fewer shots, shoots a higher percentage from behind the 3-point line, and he passes and rebounds better.
As a result, his win shares creep toward 1.0 from 0.3 to 0.9, and his PER improves by .7%. The advanced stat improvements seem marginal at best, but his increased value coming off the bench is unquestioned.
The other step, which could conceivably be executed by bringing Waiters off the bench, is limiting his minutes. In 56 games this season, he’s played 20-29 minutes 30 times, and 30-39 minutes 19 times.
Waiters’ numbers when he plays between 20-29 minutes are far better than when he plays any more than that. Playing 30+ minutes, Waiters averages 9.1 ppg, 36% shooting from the field, an offensive rating of 95, and a plus/minus of +.9. When he plays 20-29 minutes, his ppg jumps to 10.4, he shoots 42% from the field, his offensive rating is 100, and the team is +7.5 when he’s on the floor.
The other step, which could conceivably be executed by bringing Waiters off the bench, is limiting his minutes. In 56 games this season, he’s played 20-29 minutes 30 times, and 30-39 minutes 19 times.
Waiters’ numbers when he plays between 20-29 minutes are far better than when he plays any more than that. Playing 30+ minutes, Waiters averages 9.1 ppg, 36% shooting from the field, an offensive rating of 95, and a plus/minus of +.9. When he plays 20-29 minutes, his ppg jumps to 10.4, he shoots 42% from the field, his offensive rating is 100, and the team is +7.5 when he’s on the floor.
Proof that this works: Waiters as a starter averages 33.5 minutes per game. When he excels off the bench–26.9 minutes per game. Just like Macklemore and Nutella, Dion Waiters is best when used in small doses.
Arguing that these three steps are the keys to solving Dion Waiters’ issues would be a vast oversimplification of his challenges on the court. As I previously mentioned, he just doesn’t fit on this team, and at this point, that’s not something that will really change.
At this point, the best thing the Oklahoma City Thunder can do with Dion is attempt to maximize his talent, and these relatively small changes could have an impact on that. Honestly, if I’m OKC, my hope is just that Dion Waiters doesn’t become a net negative during the playoffs, and that he can avoid instances like this…
Were Waiters to eliminate the long-two out of his game completely, his shooting percentage would jump from 39% to 42%, and would improve his quality on the court in general. It would also greatly reduce the number of emergency room visits in the greater-OKC area by Thunder fans who injure themselves in Waiters-induced rages. By now, it’s got to be a box you can check off at most Oklahoma emergency rooms.
The next two steps go somewhat hand in hand, and are fully at the discretion of head coach Billy Donovan. The issue he has dealt with thus far in OKC is the same oneScott Brooks struggled with: Finding the right starting 5.
Between seemingly constant injuries to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka, and the crippling inconsistency of the Thunder rotation, putting out a strong starting 5 has been a challenge in OKC for several years. Donovan is beginning to get his permanent rotation straight, but in doing so, he’s actually making a big mistake.
Dion Waiters has started just 12 games all season, but he’s been in the starting lineup in each of the Thunder’s last 10 games. The idea appears to be not to force the pressure of starting onto rookie guard Cameron Payne, but the greater impact is felt by Waiters. For Dion, coming off the bench improves nearly every statistical aspect of his game. As a reserve, he takes fewer shots, shoots a higher percentage from behind the 3-point line, and he passes and rebounds better.
As a result, his win shares creep toward 1.0 from 0.3 to 0.9, and his PER improves by .7%. The advanced stat improvements seem marginal at best, but his increased value coming off the bench is unquestioned.
The other step, which could conceivably be executed by bringing Waiters off the bench, is limiting his minutes. In 56 games this season, he’s played 20-29 minutes 30 times, and 30-39 minutes 19 times.
Waiters’ numbers when he plays between 20-29 minutes are far better than when he plays any more than that. Playing 30+ minutes, Waiters averages 9.1 ppg, 36% shooting from the field, an offensive rating of 95, and a plus/minus of +.9. When he plays 20-29 minutes, his ppg jumps to 10.4, he shoots 42% from the field, his offensive rating is 100, and the team is +7.5 when he’s on the floor.
The other step, which could conceivably be executed by bringing Waiters off the bench, is limiting his minutes. In 56 games this season, he’s played 20-29 minutes 30 times, and 30-39 minutes 19 times.
Waiters’ numbers when he plays between 20-29 minutes are far better than when he plays any more than that. Playing 30+ minutes, Waiters averages 9.1 ppg, 36% shooting from the field, an offensive rating of 95, and a plus/minus of +.9. When he plays 20-29 minutes, his ppg jumps to 10.4, he shoots 42% from the field, his offensive rating is 100, and the team is +7.5 when he’s on the floor.
Proof that this works: Waiters as a starter averages 33.5 minutes per game. When he excels off the bench–26.9 minutes per game. Just like Macklemore and Nutella, Dion Waiters is best when used in small doses.
Arguing that these three steps are the keys to solving Dion Waiters’ issues would be a vast oversimplification of his challenges on the court. As I previously mentioned, he just doesn’t fit on this team, and at this point, that’s not something that will really change.
At this point, the best thing the Oklahoma City Thunder can do with Dion is attempt to maximize his talent, and these relatively small changes could have an impact on that. Honestly, if I’m OKC, my hope is just that Dion Waiters doesn’t become a net negative during the playoffs, and that he can avoid instances like this…
Clearly, fixing Dion Waiters entirely is almost impossible. But there definitely are measures the Oklahoma City Thunder can take from protecting him from himself.
The Change That Would Save NBA All-Star Weekend
Also published on SirCharlesinCharge.com
By Eli Lederman
2-16-16
This past weekend, I watched NBA All-Star Saturday Night with a group of friends. We sat through the painfully terrible Meet the Hoopers State Farm ads, and the parasitic presence of Kevin Hart that has seemingly taken over NBA All-Star weekend, and commented on how much DeMarre Carroll looked like a woman with his long-hair and mink accessories. It was all in all a fun night. But at the end of it, we came to a realization: NBA All-Star weekend has grown stale. Sure, this particular All-Star Saturday night wasn’t so bad; Aaron Gordon and Zach LaVine reinvigorated the dunk contest with some impressive creativity, and Steph and Klay each put on electrifying performances in the three-point contest. I’ll even admit that seeing Steve Nash in loafers and skin-tight pants trying to execute a soccer trick with a basketball was pretty great. But the excitement of this past weekend was only a slight break in the overall downward trend we’ve seen from All-Star weekends over the last 5 or so years. All-Star Saturday night has become a commercialized frenzy filled with truly overwhelming amounts of both sponsors and Walk the Moon (they were brutal), and the All-Star game itself has essentially become a dunk fest that features 0% defense. I think it’s safe to say that 60% of Americans exerted more energy watching the All-Star game than the players did playing in it. NBA All-Star weekend as a whole has become a watered-down procession of bland ploys and mostly boring events.
Watching the All-Star game on Sunday night, essentially with the same group as the night before, we brainstormed ways to improve All-Star weekend. Acknowledging that forcing DeAndre Jordan into a free-throw competition with a random fan from the crowd, or forcing Blake Griffin and the Clippers equipment manager to have a rematch at mid-court were both out of the realm of possibility, we came up with the perfect idea to save NBA All-Star weekend. There is only one way to the fill gaping void that felt ever-present on Saturday night. What is that fix? Well, what does any NBA Jam-playing millennial want to see more than anything in the world? You guessed it! The Super-Duper NBA All-Star One-on-One Championship for the Ages (to be known as the SDNBAAS1on1CA). This idea is dynamite. A one-on-one tournament played out by the NBA’s best during All-Star Weekend? Can you say sure fire? I’ve already got my lawyers working on getting me the exclusive rights to sell this to the NBA.
Alright, fine, the idea is nothing new. It turns out my lawyers had heard the idea about a hundred times before I pitched it. A one-on-one tournament has been suggested by bloggers, sports media personalities, and even active players themselves. But it’s still yet to be actualized. Why on earth are we televising the atrocity that is the celebrity game without even considering this as option? It’s not like it hasn’t been done before.
In 1972, the NBA had a one-on-one tournament for $15,000. They played by 2’s, to 20, win by four. There was even a "take-it-out" line that needed to be crossed on every change of possession just like any pick-up game. The NBA: Where weird but sorta awesome used to happen. The tournament culminated with the final matchup between Boston Celtic Jo Jo White and Detroit Piston Bob Lanier taking place at halftime of Game 5 of the NBA Finals in Los Angeles. Bob Lanier took home the title and the cash. Here’s the video showing what went down:
By Eli Lederman
2-16-16
This past weekend, I watched NBA All-Star Saturday Night with a group of friends. We sat through the painfully terrible Meet the Hoopers State Farm ads, and the parasitic presence of Kevin Hart that has seemingly taken over NBA All-Star weekend, and commented on how much DeMarre Carroll looked like a woman with his long-hair and mink accessories. It was all in all a fun night. But at the end of it, we came to a realization: NBA All-Star weekend has grown stale. Sure, this particular All-Star Saturday night wasn’t so bad; Aaron Gordon and Zach LaVine reinvigorated the dunk contest with some impressive creativity, and Steph and Klay each put on electrifying performances in the three-point contest. I’ll even admit that seeing Steve Nash in loafers and skin-tight pants trying to execute a soccer trick with a basketball was pretty great. But the excitement of this past weekend was only a slight break in the overall downward trend we’ve seen from All-Star weekends over the last 5 or so years. All-Star Saturday night has become a commercialized frenzy filled with truly overwhelming amounts of both sponsors and Walk the Moon (they were brutal), and the All-Star game itself has essentially become a dunk fest that features 0% defense. I think it’s safe to say that 60% of Americans exerted more energy watching the All-Star game than the players did playing in it. NBA All-Star weekend as a whole has become a watered-down procession of bland ploys and mostly boring events.
Watching the All-Star game on Sunday night, essentially with the same group as the night before, we brainstormed ways to improve All-Star weekend. Acknowledging that forcing DeAndre Jordan into a free-throw competition with a random fan from the crowd, or forcing Blake Griffin and the Clippers equipment manager to have a rematch at mid-court were both out of the realm of possibility, we came up with the perfect idea to save NBA All-Star weekend. There is only one way to the fill gaping void that felt ever-present on Saturday night. What is that fix? Well, what does any NBA Jam-playing millennial want to see more than anything in the world? You guessed it! The Super-Duper NBA All-Star One-on-One Championship for the Ages (to be known as the SDNBAAS1on1CA). This idea is dynamite. A one-on-one tournament played out by the NBA’s best during All-Star Weekend? Can you say sure fire? I’ve already got my lawyers working on getting me the exclusive rights to sell this to the NBA.
Alright, fine, the idea is nothing new. It turns out my lawyers had heard the idea about a hundred times before I pitched it. A one-on-one tournament has been suggested by bloggers, sports media personalities, and even active players themselves. But it’s still yet to be actualized. Why on earth are we televising the atrocity that is the celebrity game without even considering this as option? It’s not like it hasn’t been done before.
In 1972, the NBA had a one-on-one tournament for $15,000. They played by 2’s, to 20, win by four. There was even a "take-it-out" line that needed to be crossed on every change of possession just like any pick-up game. The NBA: Where weird but sorta awesome used to happen. The tournament culminated with the final matchup between Boston Celtic Jo Jo White and Detroit Piston Bob Lanier taking place at halftime of Game 5 of the NBA Finals in Los Angeles. Bob Lanier took home the title and the cash. Here’s the video showing what went down:
The key difference here is that the 1972 tourney went down over the course of the season, and not on All-Star weekend. But this isn’t too brainy, and I think the people at the NBA offices could figure it out.
The modern-day tournament would look somewhat similar to the 1972 one, with some differences. Of course, never missing a marketing opportunity, the NBA would get some killer sponsors. How does the GoPro Tesla Mandalay Bay Casino Super-Duper NBA All-Star One-on-One Championship for the Ages sound to you? I love it already. We’d also need a crack announcing team to call the tournament. Kevin Hart’s announcing performance during the Dunk Contest gets him relegated to the position of sideline reporter, where he’s forced to wear an ill-fitting Craig Sager-like suit. Doing the announcing would be Marv Albert on the play-by-play, Walt Frazier doing the color commentary, with Latrell Sprewell and Rob Gronkowski serving as the wild cards. What could go wrong there? So what would this tournament actually look like? Well, I spent an embarrassing amount of time thinking about it, and here’s what I came up with:
Overview of the rules of the Super-Duper NBA All-Star One-on-One Championship for the Ages
-The participants will include the NBA’s top 16 scorers, 2 rookies, 2 sophomores, and 12 Wild Cards selected by the tournament’s commissioner, making for a total of 32 players. In a dream scenario, the commish is Bill Russell.
-Seeding will be totally randomized.
-Games will be played by 1’s and 2’s, to 7, win by 2.
-Winners on any made basket.
-Take-out past the 3-point line on any change of possession (except when the ball fails to touch the rim)
-Joey Crawford must officiate any and all games.
-All cash winnings must go to charity (Derek Fisher’s “steal your girl” fund does not count as a charity)
-Winner gets ultimate bragging rights for one full year, and is given the right to take one item from each of the other 31 loser’s homes.
Sounds pretty great, right? So two games would take place at a time, on opposite ends of the court. For TV viewers there would be a split screen so that both of them could be watched at the same time. Once the tournament gets down to the Elite Eight, only one game will be played at a time. To further the marketing gold-mine, each “region” of the bracket will have to be sponsored. Each sponsor will be represented by an NBA legend who will be live-tweeting on location to further add to the hype of this internet shattering event. In order to give you a sense of just how special this would be, here is what this year’s Super-Duper NBA All-Star One-on-One Championship for the Ages could have looked like. Remember, all seeding and region placement is randomized.
The Field
Top 16 scorers
Stephen Curry
James Harden
Kevin Durant,
DeMarcus Cousins
LeBron James
Damian Lillard
Russell Westbrook
DeMar DeRozan
Anthony Davis
Paul George
Jimmy Butler
Isaiah Thomas
Carmelo Anthony
Klay Thompson
Kyle Lowry
Andrew Wiggins
Rookies
Kristaps Porzingis
Karl-Anthony Towns
Sophomores
Marcus Smart
Zach LaVine
Wild Cards
Kobe Bryant
Kawhi Leonard
Chris Paul
Draymond Green
Kyrie Irving
John Wall
Dwyane Wade
Chris Bosh
Andre Drummond
LaMarcus Aldridge
Kemba Walker
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Now for the regions:
The modern-day tournament would look somewhat similar to the 1972 one, with some differences. Of course, never missing a marketing opportunity, the NBA would get some killer sponsors. How does the GoPro Tesla Mandalay Bay Casino Super-Duper NBA All-Star One-on-One Championship for the Ages sound to you? I love it already. We’d also need a crack announcing team to call the tournament. Kevin Hart’s announcing performance during the Dunk Contest gets him relegated to the position of sideline reporter, where he’s forced to wear an ill-fitting Craig Sager-like suit. Doing the announcing would be Marv Albert on the play-by-play, Walt Frazier doing the color commentary, with Latrell Sprewell and Rob Gronkowski serving as the wild cards. What could go wrong there? So what would this tournament actually look like? Well, I spent an embarrassing amount of time thinking about it, and here’s what I came up with:
Overview of the rules of the Super-Duper NBA All-Star One-on-One Championship for the Ages
-The participants will include the NBA’s top 16 scorers, 2 rookies, 2 sophomores, and 12 Wild Cards selected by the tournament’s commissioner, making for a total of 32 players. In a dream scenario, the commish is Bill Russell.
-Seeding will be totally randomized.
-Games will be played by 1’s and 2’s, to 7, win by 2.
-Winners on any made basket.
-Take-out past the 3-point line on any change of possession (except when the ball fails to touch the rim)
-Joey Crawford must officiate any and all games.
-All cash winnings must go to charity (Derek Fisher’s “steal your girl” fund does not count as a charity)
-Winner gets ultimate bragging rights for one full year, and is given the right to take one item from each of the other 31 loser’s homes.
Sounds pretty great, right? So two games would take place at a time, on opposite ends of the court. For TV viewers there would be a split screen so that both of them could be watched at the same time. Once the tournament gets down to the Elite Eight, only one game will be played at a time. To further the marketing gold-mine, each “region” of the bracket will have to be sponsored. Each sponsor will be represented by an NBA legend who will be live-tweeting on location to further add to the hype of this internet shattering event. In order to give you a sense of just how special this would be, here is what this year’s Super-Duper NBA All-Star One-on-One Championship for the Ages could have looked like. Remember, all seeding and region placement is randomized.
The Field
Top 16 scorers
Stephen Curry
James Harden
Kevin Durant,
DeMarcus Cousins
LeBron James
Damian Lillard
Russell Westbrook
DeMar DeRozan
Anthony Davis
Paul George
Jimmy Butler
Isaiah Thomas
Carmelo Anthony
Klay Thompson
Kyle Lowry
Andrew Wiggins
Rookies
Kristaps Porzingis
Karl-Anthony Towns
Sophomores
Marcus Smart
Zach LaVine
Wild Cards
Kobe Bryant
Kawhi Leonard
Chris Paul
Draymond Green
Kyrie Irving
John Wall
Dwyane Wade
Chris Bosh
Andre Drummond
LaMarcus Aldridge
Kemba Walker
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Now for the regions:
The Fidelity Investments Draftkings Daily Fantasy Region
1- Kawhi Leonard
2- John Wall
3- Kevin Durant
4- Jimmy Butler
5- Paul George
6- Isaiah Thomas
7- Kyrie Irving
8- Zach LaVine
1- Kawhi Leonard
2- John Wall
3- Kevin Durant
4- Jimmy Butler
5- Paul George
6- Isaiah Thomas
7- Kyrie Irving
8- Zach LaVine
The Deutsche Bank Tostitos Region
1- Anthony Davis
2- LeBron James
3- Karl-Anthony Towns
4- Russell Westbrook
5- Andre Drummond
6- Kristaps Porzingis
7- Dwyane Wade
8- DeMar DeRozan
1- Anthony Davis
2- LeBron James
3- Karl-Anthony Towns
4- Russell Westbrook
5- Andre Drummond
6- Kristaps Porzingis
7- Dwyane Wade
8- DeMar DeRozan
The Applebee’s Viva Las Vegas Region
1- James Harden
2- DeMarcus Cousins
3- Draymond Green
4- Chris Paul
5- Kobe Bryant (Kobe gets in via the legacy clause-it’s hidden within the lengthy rule book-and on his sheer competitive fire. Wouldn’t stun me if he won)
6- LaMarcus Aldridge
7- Andrew Wiggins
8- Chris Bosh
1- James Harden
2- DeMarcus Cousins
3- Draymond Green
4- Chris Paul
5- Kobe Bryant (Kobe gets in via the legacy clause-it’s hidden within the lengthy rule book-and on his sheer competitive fire. Wouldn’t stun me if he won)
6- LaMarcus Aldridge
7- Andrew Wiggins
8- Chris Bosh
The Mercedes-Benz Hulu Region
1- Carmelo Anthony
2- Stephen Curry
3- Marcus Smart
4- Kemba Walker
5- Giannis Antetokounmpo
6- Klay Thompson
7- Kyle Lowry
8- Jimmy Butler
Tell me you wouldn’t be glued to the TV for this. Storylines galore, non-stop action, and uber-entertaining matchups no matter who wins. Let’s not forget that the NBA possesses the greatest concentration of ego-maniacs on the face of the earth. If you think anyone here is loafing it, and risking being publicly embarrassed in the GoPro Tesla Mandalay Bay Casino Super-Duper NBA All-Star One-on-One Championship for the Ages, you are dead wrong. Not a chance. Plus, there is the very present fear of what scorched-earth Kobe will take from your home when he inevitably wins the tournament, decapitating Marcus Smart in the process.
I won’t delve into which matchups I like, or whether or not there will be expansion when this inevitably succeeds (just like the NBA and conference imbalance, we’ll just act like it’s not an issue). I’ve gone on about this long enough. But whether you like the idea of the NBA’s best facing off one-on-one, or hate the idea, in which case you probably also rooted for the Cobra Kai dojo in The Karate Kid, you have to admit that this would make All-Star weekend far more interesting. Even with Kevin Hart still slightly involved.
1- Carmelo Anthony
2- Stephen Curry
3- Marcus Smart
4- Kemba Walker
5- Giannis Antetokounmpo
6- Klay Thompson
7- Kyle Lowry
8- Jimmy Butler
Tell me you wouldn’t be glued to the TV for this. Storylines galore, non-stop action, and uber-entertaining matchups no matter who wins. Let’s not forget that the NBA possesses the greatest concentration of ego-maniacs on the face of the earth. If you think anyone here is loafing it, and risking being publicly embarrassed in the GoPro Tesla Mandalay Bay Casino Super-Duper NBA All-Star One-on-One Championship for the Ages, you are dead wrong. Not a chance. Plus, there is the very present fear of what scorched-earth Kobe will take from your home when he inevitably wins the tournament, decapitating Marcus Smart in the process.
I won’t delve into which matchups I like, or whether or not there will be expansion when this inevitably succeeds (just like the NBA and conference imbalance, we’ll just act like it’s not an issue). I’ve gone on about this long enough. But whether you like the idea of the NBA’s best facing off one-on-one, or hate the idea, in which case you probably also rooted for the Cobra Kai dojo in The Karate Kid, you have to admit that this would make All-Star weekend far more interesting. Even with Kevin Hart still slightly involved.
Super Bowl Column 2016
By Eli Lederman
2-5-16
“Just a helpful hint, don't pick the Patriots to win this week.”
-Steven, Larchmont, NY
This is an email I received earlier this week from a reader of mine. I feel like I should be a little hurt by it. I mean, sure, I’ve picked the Patriots to win every single game I’ve attempted to predict since this blog started, but still, I’m offended. To think that my readers think so little of me that I would pick my team in a game they weren’t even playing in–it just flat out hurts...full disclosure, I did spend about 45 minutes yesterday trying to figure out how I could pick the Patriots in the Super Bowl. In reality, you guys just know me too well by now. I won’t pick the Patriots, but I also still won’t rule out the possibility that they somehow win this game. You can never rule out Brady and Belichick.
Before I get into the game, we’re going to start with my 3 favorite prop bets for Super Bowl 50.
Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge?
Yes: +110 (11/10)
No: -150 (2/3)
If you have watched even one NFL game on CBS this season, you’ve likely heard Mike Carey, the NFL ref turned rules analyst, botch a coach's challenge. For those of you who have missed it, Mike Carey is an absolute wreck. Not only is he not meant for TV, but his analysis is almost always wrong. The sequences usually go something like this: After one of the team’s head coaches challenges a ruling on the field, Jim Nantz welcomes Carey in. Despite the fact that he spends no more than 2 minutes on air during the 4+ hour telecast, Carey never struggles to be unprepared. He always stumbles in, and forces Nantz to break the situation down for him like he’s a child. Carey then proceeds to attempt to explain his call and the actual rule, never failing to trip or stammer on his words in the process. Finally, he makes a definitive statement about what the call on the field is going to be, and does so with a rate of success similar to Jeb Bush in Iowa. He’s just a mess on TV. Need more proof? During the AFC championship game, Peyton Manning threw a backwards pass that was initially called incomplete and the Patriots challenged the call claiming that it was a fumble. Carey limped in per usual, and I found myself rooting for him to suggest that the call would go in Denver’s favor, knowing that the refs on the field would make the opposite call. I was right, Carey was wrong, and the Pats got the football. I was that sure Mike Carey would blow it. Did I mentioned that this guy was the head official in a Super Bowl just a few years ago? Scary stuff. This is a sure bet. Wager the mortgage on this one.
Will there be an earthquake during the game?
Yes: 10/1
Notice how there isn’t a “no” option here? This is a terrible bet, and an even worse Karma move. Seriously, we’re betting on whether or not a natural disaster is going to hit a major US city during a major global event? Does no one remember how awful and devastating the earthquake during the 1989 World Series was? Or how disastrous the Bay Area earthquakes before and since have been? Making this bet is about 10,000X karmically worse than taking your time in a parking spot because you know someone is waiting for it, 1,000X worse than betting on Johnny Manziel’s next legal misstep, and about 100X worse than rooting against Cam Newton because he’s “cocky”. If you make this bet, be prepared to lose whatever money you put on it...and your home, your job, your car, and anything else you cherish. Karma is coming for you.
Brandon McManus Super Bowl MVP
100/1
Who is Brandon McManus you ask? Well he’s the kicker for the Denver Broncos of course. I know what you’re thinking, a kicker has never been named Super Bowl MVP in the 50 year history of the Super Bowl. I’ll even admit it, it’s a long shot. But hey, it’s been a wonky year of NFL football, why should the Super Bowl MVP be any different? Don’t forget that Brandon McManus singlehandedly won the Broncos that divisional round game against the Steelers. Against Pittsburgh, he went 5/5 on field goals, accounting for 15 of the Broncos 23 points, with a game-long of 51 yards. Throw in the sure touchback he provides on almost every kick off, and this guy sounds pretty valuable to me. I don’t know, the way this Denver team plays where no one really shines offensively, this is starting to look like a good bet to me. You know what, I’m throwing my next 3 paychecks down on this one. I’ll be writing my next column from Cabo...Who am I kidding? There’s no way they don’t give this award to Peyton Manning if Denver pulls this one out. Peyton could go 8 of 35 passing, throw for 108 yards, toss 3 picks, pick his nose during the national anthem, ruin the halftime show, and take a dump on the NFL logo at midfield, and you would still see a salivating Jim Nantz hand him the MVP trophy at the end of the game.
Denver Broncos (+5.5) vs Carolina Panthers
So this is my 4th picks column of the NFL playoffs. I’ve had a lot of fun writing it. Finding the stats and info has been a blast, and there truly are few things better in this world than bashing Andy Reid, which I did plenty of. One thing I have realized in trying to break down these games before they’ve even occurred, is that prediction articles, radio shows devoted to predicting what will happen, and any other sports media source that tries to break down “what could happen”, are all BS. I know, I’m undermining everything I’ve done over the last month, but I’m enlightened now. This wonky NFL season, and the generally unpredictable nature of NFL football has made me realize that there’s no real way to predict exactly what’s going to happen in a game. This isn’t just sour grapes. I went 8-2 predicting games over the first 3 playoff rounds. I’ll continue to make my game picks (I appear to be able to do that at least). But no matter how much research I do, and the same goes for anyone on ESPN, FOX, CBS or any other sports media organization, there is no way to really predict this stuff. I can talk about the Kansas City running game or the Arizona defense all I want, and back it up with strong numbers, but it has become evident to me that none of that actually means anything. It’s a waste of everyone’s time. So, from this point on, I refuse to dig too deep into Russell Wilson’s passer rating, or Eddie Lacy’s yards per carry numbers when predicting a game. Don’t worry, this just gives me more space to discuss Russell Wilson’s past marriages and Eddie Lacy’s incredible weight gain. It’s a win-win for everyone.
2-5-16
“Just a helpful hint, don't pick the Patriots to win this week.”
-Steven, Larchmont, NY
This is an email I received earlier this week from a reader of mine. I feel like I should be a little hurt by it. I mean, sure, I’ve picked the Patriots to win every single game I’ve attempted to predict since this blog started, but still, I’m offended. To think that my readers think so little of me that I would pick my team in a game they weren’t even playing in–it just flat out hurts...full disclosure, I did spend about 45 minutes yesterday trying to figure out how I could pick the Patriots in the Super Bowl. In reality, you guys just know me too well by now. I won’t pick the Patriots, but I also still won’t rule out the possibility that they somehow win this game. You can never rule out Brady and Belichick.
Before I get into the game, we’re going to start with my 3 favorite prop bets for Super Bowl 50.
Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge?
Yes: +110 (11/10)
No: -150 (2/3)
If you have watched even one NFL game on CBS this season, you’ve likely heard Mike Carey, the NFL ref turned rules analyst, botch a coach's challenge. For those of you who have missed it, Mike Carey is an absolute wreck. Not only is he not meant for TV, but his analysis is almost always wrong. The sequences usually go something like this: After one of the team’s head coaches challenges a ruling on the field, Jim Nantz welcomes Carey in. Despite the fact that he spends no more than 2 minutes on air during the 4+ hour telecast, Carey never struggles to be unprepared. He always stumbles in, and forces Nantz to break the situation down for him like he’s a child. Carey then proceeds to attempt to explain his call and the actual rule, never failing to trip or stammer on his words in the process. Finally, he makes a definitive statement about what the call on the field is going to be, and does so with a rate of success similar to Jeb Bush in Iowa. He’s just a mess on TV. Need more proof? During the AFC championship game, Peyton Manning threw a backwards pass that was initially called incomplete and the Patriots challenged the call claiming that it was a fumble. Carey limped in per usual, and I found myself rooting for him to suggest that the call would go in Denver’s favor, knowing that the refs on the field would make the opposite call. I was right, Carey was wrong, and the Pats got the football. I was that sure Mike Carey would blow it. Did I mentioned that this guy was the head official in a Super Bowl just a few years ago? Scary stuff. This is a sure bet. Wager the mortgage on this one.
Will there be an earthquake during the game?
Yes: 10/1
Notice how there isn’t a “no” option here? This is a terrible bet, and an even worse Karma move. Seriously, we’re betting on whether or not a natural disaster is going to hit a major US city during a major global event? Does no one remember how awful and devastating the earthquake during the 1989 World Series was? Or how disastrous the Bay Area earthquakes before and since have been? Making this bet is about 10,000X karmically worse than taking your time in a parking spot because you know someone is waiting for it, 1,000X worse than betting on Johnny Manziel’s next legal misstep, and about 100X worse than rooting against Cam Newton because he’s “cocky”. If you make this bet, be prepared to lose whatever money you put on it...and your home, your job, your car, and anything else you cherish. Karma is coming for you.
Brandon McManus Super Bowl MVP
100/1
Who is Brandon McManus you ask? Well he’s the kicker for the Denver Broncos of course. I know what you’re thinking, a kicker has never been named Super Bowl MVP in the 50 year history of the Super Bowl. I’ll even admit it, it’s a long shot. But hey, it’s been a wonky year of NFL football, why should the Super Bowl MVP be any different? Don’t forget that Brandon McManus singlehandedly won the Broncos that divisional round game against the Steelers. Against Pittsburgh, he went 5/5 on field goals, accounting for 15 of the Broncos 23 points, with a game-long of 51 yards. Throw in the sure touchback he provides on almost every kick off, and this guy sounds pretty valuable to me. I don’t know, the way this Denver team plays where no one really shines offensively, this is starting to look like a good bet to me. You know what, I’m throwing my next 3 paychecks down on this one. I’ll be writing my next column from Cabo...Who am I kidding? There’s no way they don’t give this award to Peyton Manning if Denver pulls this one out. Peyton could go 8 of 35 passing, throw for 108 yards, toss 3 picks, pick his nose during the national anthem, ruin the halftime show, and take a dump on the NFL logo at midfield, and you would still see a salivating Jim Nantz hand him the MVP trophy at the end of the game.
Denver Broncos (+5.5) vs Carolina Panthers
So this is my 4th picks column of the NFL playoffs. I’ve had a lot of fun writing it. Finding the stats and info has been a blast, and there truly are few things better in this world than bashing Andy Reid, which I did plenty of. One thing I have realized in trying to break down these games before they’ve even occurred, is that prediction articles, radio shows devoted to predicting what will happen, and any other sports media source that tries to break down “what could happen”, are all BS. I know, I’m undermining everything I’ve done over the last month, but I’m enlightened now. This wonky NFL season, and the generally unpredictable nature of NFL football has made me realize that there’s no real way to predict exactly what’s going to happen in a game. This isn’t just sour grapes. I went 8-2 predicting games over the first 3 playoff rounds. I’ll continue to make my game picks (I appear to be able to do that at least). But no matter how much research I do, and the same goes for anyone on ESPN, FOX, CBS or any other sports media organization, there is no way to really predict this stuff. I can talk about the Kansas City running game or the Arizona defense all I want, and back it up with strong numbers, but it has become evident to me that none of that actually means anything. It’s a waste of everyone’s time. So, from this point on, I refuse to dig too deep into Russell Wilson’s passer rating, or Eddie Lacy’s yards per carry numbers when predicting a game. Don’t worry, this just gives me more space to discuss Russell Wilson’s past marriages and Eddie Lacy’s incredible weight gain. It’s a win-win for everyone.
On that slightly depressing note, let’s talk about the historical significance of this game for Peyton Manning. When you win a Super Bowl as a quarterback, you are always going to be remembered for having led your team to a Super Bowl victory, no matter how you perform. When Trent Dilfer isn’t spewing his garbage on ESPN, he is flaunting the fact that he won a Super Bowl in 2001 with the Baltimore Ravens. Though when he talks about it, he always seems to ignore the fact that he threw just 150 yards, and one touchdown in a game that was won largely by his defense and special teams. Despite that, he’s still part of an elite class that includes Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Tom Brady. The same goes for Brad Johnson. He went 18 of 34 for 215 yards with the Bucs in 2001, and got 21 points from his defense, but he’s still remembered as someone who led a Super Bowl champion team. Can you imagine the way we’d talk about Rex Grossman if he’d pulled that Super Bowl out in 2007?
That’s why I have no doubt that if Peyton Manning wins this game, we’ll remember it as Peyton’s Super Bowl. Sure, after the win there might be plenty of talk about how the defense carried the load and really won this game for Denver, but when we look back on it in 20 years, we’ll forget about how much it hurt just to watch Peyton Manning throw a football, and the fact that he missed 15+ open receivers en route to victory. Want a comparison to prove it? Game 7 of the 1970 NBA finals is remembered as “The Willis Reed” game. Willis Reed shocked world by playing the game with a torn right thigh muscle, and “led” the Knicks to a Game 7 win. What actually happened? Reed put up 4 points and played solid enough D on Wilt Chamberlain for the first half, while Walt Frazier lit up the stat sheet and won the game for New York. But hey, screw Walt, Willis is the true hero. Regardless of how Peyton performs, or how much he is aided by his defense in Super Bowl 50, a win in Santa Clara would be the ultimate cherry on top for Peyton, and would undoubtedly elevate his legacy to a new height. Does it make sense? No.
What makes even less sense? The idea that Peyton will be known as a Super Bowl loser if he doesn’t win this particular game. Don’t get me wrong, Peyton is a Super Bowl choke artist who barely even showed up in the one Super Bowl that he did win. He’s one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, but he’s really struggled in the big ones. But saying that a loss this Sunday is what cements that legacy is unfair. We can all agree that the iteration of Peyton we’re looking at right now isn’t the same Peyton who was once capable of winning games on his own. The man accounted for 3 first downs in the second half against the Patriots two weeks ago, and made 4 good throws all game. It’s not fair to pin anything on him in this game. He’s a football genius who is being limited by his waning ability. For once, I actually have some sympathy for him.
It goes without saying, but Peyton is either going to win big, or lose big legacy-wise this Sunday. If he wins, he elevates his legacy to new heights. If he loses, he secures his spot as the best quarterback who couldn’t really cut it in the Super Bowl. I hate that that’s how it’s going to go down, because neither narrative should be impacted by this Super Bowl, but that’s just how it is.
That’s why I have no doubt that if Peyton Manning wins this game, we’ll remember it as Peyton’s Super Bowl. Sure, after the win there might be plenty of talk about how the defense carried the load and really won this game for Denver, but when we look back on it in 20 years, we’ll forget about how much it hurt just to watch Peyton Manning throw a football, and the fact that he missed 15+ open receivers en route to victory. Want a comparison to prove it? Game 7 of the 1970 NBA finals is remembered as “The Willis Reed” game. Willis Reed shocked world by playing the game with a torn right thigh muscle, and “led” the Knicks to a Game 7 win. What actually happened? Reed put up 4 points and played solid enough D on Wilt Chamberlain for the first half, while Walt Frazier lit up the stat sheet and won the game for New York. But hey, screw Walt, Willis is the true hero. Regardless of how Peyton performs, or how much he is aided by his defense in Super Bowl 50, a win in Santa Clara would be the ultimate cherry on top for Peyton, and would undoubtedly elevate his legacy to a new height. Does it make sense? No.
What makes even less sense? The idea that Peyton will be known as a Super Bowl loser if he doesn’t win this particular game. Don’t get me wrong, Peyton is a Super Bowl choke artist who barely even showed up in the one Super Bowl that he did win. He’s one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, but he’s really struggled in the big ones. But saying that a loss this Sunday is what cements that legacy is unfair. We can all agree that the iteration of Peyton we’re looking at right now isn’t the same Peyton who was once capable of winning games on his own. The man accounted for 3 first downs in the second half against the Patriots two weeks ago, and made 4 good throws all game. It’s not fair to pin anything on him in this game. He’s a football genius who is being limited by his waning ability. For once, I actually have some sympathy for him.
It goes without saying, but Peyton is either going to win big, or lose big legacy-wise this Sunday. If he wins, he elevates his legacy to new heights. If he loses, he secures his spot as the best quarterback who couldn’t really cut it in the Super Bowl. I hate that that’s how it’s going to go down, because neither narrative should be impacted by this Super Bowl, but that’s just how it is.
As far as the Panthers go, I like almost everything about them. They are cool, and confident, and have every reason to be. Need I remind you they’ve lost just once since Donald Trump has gained political relevance? Cam is the coolest NFL quarterback since, well, ever, and Carolina’s top cornerback is a different movie character every game. There’s nothing not to like about them. But my one concern is that the Carolina Panthers are too loose. There’s something to be said for treating the Super Bowl like it’s just another game, but I also don’t love seeing a group of players who are too comfortable heading into the biggest game any of them have ever played in. The recent ESPN 30 for 30 titled The Four Falls of Buffalo served to remind me of a few very important things. The first was that the Bills somehow lost 4 straight Super Bowls in the early 90’s. It’s one those things you know happened, but sort of don’t think of until you’re reminded of how absurd it is to make it to the Super Bowl 4 straight times, and to lose each one. Another important thing I was reminded of was just how important Tim Russert was as the symbol of the city of Buffalo. Tim Russert kept the oft-forgotten city of Buffalo on the map nationally with his fervent love of the city and the Bills. The last thing I was reminded of was how loose the 1990 Bills were when they were making their first Super Bowl appearance. Nearly every member of the team recalled how lightly they took it, and each and every one of them regretted the fact that they hadn't focused more on the task at hand. I’m not accusing the Panthers of not caring about this game, but their looseness scares me. I think there’s an inherent sense of insecurity about a team that focuses too hard on keeping up a certain image during Super Bowl week. It’s definitely a red-flag for me. I don’t know, I just feel like this is the sort of thing a team looks back on and regrets after they lose the Super Bowl. If I were a Carolina fan, I wouldn't be too freaked out, but the Panthers’ care-free attitude would definitely give me a little anxiety.
So when it comes down to it, who’s winning this game? Well, knowing this NFL season, the game will end on a hail-mary touchdown that sees the football bounce off of 3 different celebrities in the stands, Tony Siragusa’s belly, and will include at 2 least Mannings who aren’t on the field (my money is on Cooper and Archie). After everything that’s unfolded this year, this wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. In all seriousness, I feel like the Panthers have been the team of destiny from day 1, and that they are supposed to win this game. Losing their top receiver during training camp, all the ridicule directed at Cam Newton, having the best Spanish language announcers in the world, and everything else around the Panthers points to them winning this game. The Broncos are the perfect underdog story with The Sheriff riding Jim Nantz off into the sunset with a Super Bowl ring, but I don’t think the Broncos have the firepower to keep up with the Panthers. If Carolina comes out and scores 17 quick points as they have in their first two playoff games, the game will essentially be done in the first 5 minutes. I can’t pick against destiny, and I can’t pick against Cam.
Panthers (-5.5) over Broncos
So when it comes down to it, who’s winning this game? Well, knowing this NFL season, the game will end on a hail-mary touchdown that sees the football bounce off of 3 different celebrities in the stands, Tony Siragusa’s belly, and will include at 2 least Mannings who aren’t on the field (my money is on Cooper and Archie). After everything that’s unfolded this year, this wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. In all seriousness, I feel like the Panthers have been the team of destiny from day 1, and that they are supposed to win this game. Losing their top receiver during training camp, all the ridicule directed at Cam Newton, having the best Spanish language announcers in the world, and everything else around the Panthers points to them winning this game. The Broncos are the perfect underdog story with The Sheriff riding Jim Nantz off into the sunset with a Super Bowl ring, but I don’t think the Broncos have the firepower to keep up with the Panthers. If Carolina comes out and scores 17 quick points as they have in their first two playoff games, the game will essentially be done in the first 5 minutes. I can’t pick against destiny, and I can’t pick against Cam.
Panthers (-5.5) over Broncos
A Dab in the Wrong Direction
By Eli Lederman
2-2-16
The quarterback runs into the end zone, spikes the football and does his patented touchdown celebration. You’ve seen this one over and over on replays and commercials — even YouTube videos, because people love to imitate it. Yet Aaron Rodgers has never been given the title of “show boat.”
Surprised, aren’t you? It sounded a lot like Cam Newton, and, depending upon how you feel about him, you might have rolled your eyes or gritted your teeth at the thought of him dabbing and dancing, enjoying himself on the field.
How many times have you seen Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, J.J. Watt, or any member of the Green Bay Packers who still has the energy to hoist themselves into the stands after scoring a touchdown celebrate their big play with dance or a spike? More than you can count. Touchdown celebrations are a staple of football from playgrounds all the way to the NFL. Almost every Gronk spike, or Discount Double Check is met with cheering, praise, and sometimes maybe even a Vine. Yet anytime Cam Newton has the audacity to do a dance and hand the football to a child in the stands, it is he who has brought about the ruin of sportsmanship and civilization. But why?
If you’re a black athlete in this country, white America will cheer for you; they will attend your games; they’ll even buy your jersey so long as you make sure to display endless amounts of humility, meekness, and gratitude. The ire that has been seen directed at Cam Newton this season has come as a result of his alleged defiance of this ideal. To be fair, Newton has always been a divisive figure. From allegations that money influenced his decision to attend Auburn, to those contending that he should give back the Heisman trophy, Newton, for years, has been a lightening rod for judgement. When the Carolina Panthers drafted him as the first overall pick, some called him the “worst NFL draft pick ever.” That headline is laughable today, but it illustrates the kind of vitriol Newton attracts. Even as he’s led the Panthers to the Super Bowl this season, he’s faced heavy criticism. He was criticized for his dancing; he was criticized for his smile; many despised the towel over his head; some said he set a bad example by being an unwed father; and he was called ‘Classless Cam’ for tearing down a Seattle Seahawks 12th man flag. There is even a #BanTheCam Change.org petition stating that:
“Cam Newton is one of the most unprofessional, unsportsmanlike individuals on the face of the planet. So I say for the 2016-2017 when the Panthers come to play in Seattle he should be banned from entering the stadium. This should teach him to put his arrogance in check!”
The rants from ESPN personalities, the articles about his “aloofness”, and the racially coded letters written to editors calling him “a poor role model” have all come in response to Newton’s braggadocio. But his bombastic actions and his race alone aren’t the reason Cam has received such acrimony. Newton plays in a league where black athletes represent two-thirds of its players. And he’s hardly the first black football player to bring his confidence onto the field. Players like Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson turned touchdown celebrations and on-field personality into an art form long before Cam was even in high school. Newton does a lot of the same things Owens and Johnson did, but so have Randy Moss and Richard Sherman. What makes Cam Newton different is that he does all of the same things while playing the position of quarterback– a position that, until 25 years ago belonged almost exclusively to white players.
2-2-16
The quarterback runs into the end zone, spikes the football and does his patented touchdown celebration. You’ve seen this one over and over on replays and commercials — even YouTube videos, because people love to imitate it. Yet Aaron Rodgers has never been given the title of “show boat.”
Surprised, aren’t you? It sounded a lot like Cam Newton, and, depending upon how you feel about him, you might have rolled your eyes or gritted your teeth at the thought of him dabbing and dancing, enjoying himself on the field.
How many times have you seen Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, J.J. Watt, or any member of the Green Bay Packers who still has the energy to hoist themselves into the stands after scoring a touchdown celebrate their big play with dance or a spike? More than you can count. Touchdown celebrations are a staple of football from playgrounds all the way to the NFL. Almost every Gronk spike, or Discount Double Check is met with cheering, praise, and sometimes maybe even a Vine. Yet anytime Cam Newton has the audacity to do a dance and hand the football to a child in the stands, it is he who has brought about the ruin of sportsmanship and civilization. But why?
If you’re a black athlete in this country, white America will cheer for you; they will attend your games; they’ll even buy your jersey so long as you make sure to display endless amounts of humility, meekness, and gratitude. The ire that has been seen directed at Cam Newton this season has come as a result of his alleged defiance of this ideal. To be fair, Newton has always been a divisive figure. From allegations that money influenced his decision to attend Auburn, to those contending that he should give back the Heisman trophy, Newton, for years, has been a lightening rod for judgement. When the Carolina Panthers drafted him as the first overall pick, some called him the “worst NFL draft pick ever.” That headline is laughable today, but it illustrates the kind of vitriol Newton attracts. Even as he’s led the Panthers to the Super Bowl this season, he’s faced heavy criticism. He was criticized for his dancing; he was criticized for his smile; many despised the towel over his head; some said he set a bad example by being an unwed father; and he was called ‘Classless Cam’ for tearing down a Seattle Seahawks 12th man flag. There is even a #BanTheCam Change.org petition stating that:
“Cam Newton is one of the most unprofessional, unsportsmanlike individuals on the face of the planet. So I say for the 2016-2017 when the Panthers come to play in Seattle he should be banned from entering the stadium. This should teach him to put his arrogance in check!”
The rants from ESPN personalities, the articles about his “aloofness”, and the racially coded letters written to editors calling him “a poor role model” have all come in response to Newton’s braggadocio. But his bombastic actions and his race alone aren’t the reason Cam has received such acrimony. Newton plays in a league where black athletes represent two-thirds of its players. And he’s hardly the first black football player to bring his confidence onto the field. Players like Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson turned touchdown celebrations and on-field personality into an art form long before Cam was even in high school. Newton does a lot of the same things Owens and Johnson did, but so have Randy Moss and Richard Sherman. What makes Cam Newton different is that he does all of the same things while playing the position of quarterback– a position that, until 25 years ago belonged almost exclusively to white players.
The NFL has had plenty of black quarterbacks before. In that sense, Cam Newton is doing nothing revolutionary. There have been numerous black quarterbacks who’ve started in the NFL, and five who have played in the Super Bowl. Doug Williams, Warren Moon, Donovan McNabb, etc., have all played the role of black quarterback in the NFL. But none of them did so with the same brashness that Cam has. They fit more into the narrative of the typical quarterback– reserved, cliche-spitting, and unbearably bland. The difference between Newton and the black quarterbacks before him is in the way he is so subversively unapologetic in his embrace of black culture. He does everything he is supposed to do: he answers questions at the press conferences; he gives credit to his teammates; he does charity work in the community, but he does it all his way. That is, he does not try to hide the fact that he was reared in an all black, working class environment. If the press asks him a question, he answers them in a black southern vernacular that only emphasizes his confidence. As Bomani Jones has said, “He is the embodiment of everything black men are told you cannot be and achieve success.” He is uninterested in being “respectable.” He is not trying to prove he belongs. He only wants to make a statement that proves a black quarterback can succeed in the NFL with bravado and fearless individuality.
Sports culture is often seen as a microcosm of what is going on within our culture. Jason Collins and Michael Sam deciding to come out as the first active, openly gay athletes displayed the upward trend in support and acceptance of same sex relationships. The issue of concussions in the NFL has led to a rapid increase in concern regarding head injuries and brain damage. Even the the Donald Sterling incident, which saw the former Los Angeles Clippers owner make a number of racist comments on a secret recording, showed us that we were all sick of old, racist white guys. So what does the indignation toward Cam Newton and his attitude say? In my opinion, the fact that a black athlete being himself can cause a national outcry, despite all the progress that the African-American community has made in sports, and elsewhere, is an indication that there is still work to be done. Conversely, the steadily growing plethora of dabbing, Newton jersey-wearing fans that Cam has accumulated signals that the next generation of football fans is one who will appreciate a player like Newton. Either way, it’s hard to doubt that by the end of his career, Cam Newton will have had an major impact– both on football, and on our culture.
Sports culture is often seen as a microcosm of what is going on within our culture. Jason Collins and Michael Sam deciding to come out as the first active, openly gay athletes displayed the upward trend in support and acceptance of same sex relationships. The issue of concussions in the NFL has led to a rapid increase in concern regarding head injuries and brain damage. Even the the Donald Sterling incident, which saw the former Los Angeles Clippers owner make a number of racist comments on a secret recording, showed us that we were all sick of old, racist white guys. So what does the indignation toward Cam Newton and his attitude say? In my opinion, the fact that a black athlete being himself can cause a national outcry, despite all the progress that the African-American community has made in sports, and elsewhere, is an indication that there is still work to be done. Conversely, the steadily growing plethora of dabbing, Newton jersey-wearing fans that Cam has accumulated signals that the next generation of football fans is one who will appreciate a player like Newton. Either way, it’s hard to doubt that by the end of his career, Cam Newton will have had an major impact– both on football, and on our culture.
NFL Conference Championship Picks
By Eli Lederman
1-24-16
A majority of the comments I have received over the past few weeks have been about my skewering of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid. My readers pleaded with me about his coaching record, and his playoff appearances, and the success he’s had in Philly and now Kansas City. Well, in response, I refer you to his clock management in the final 3 minutes of last week’s game in New England. For those of you who don’t watch much Chiefs football (who does) this is what Andy Reid does. His schemes or gameplans or personnel moves are not what makes him a bad coach, it’s his damn clock management! He’s done it for years! His excuse after this one: “We didn’t want to leave any time on the clock for the Patriots.” As thankful as I was for Reid’s clock blunder, wouldn’t it have made more sense to score as quickly as possible, and leave that time on the clock for your defense to stop the Pats after you try the onside kick you have a 5% chance of recovering? I can’t believe he still has a job in the NFL. Sorry, just had to get one last Andy Reid crack in before the end of the season. Maybe I’ll somehow sneak another shot at him into my Super Bowl preview. We’ll see. Alright, here are my picks for today’s games:
1-24-16
A majority of the comments I have received over the past few weeks have been about my skewering of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid. My readers pleaded with me about his coaching record, and his playoff appearances, and the success he’s had in Philly and now Kansas City. Well, in response, I refer you to his clock management in the final 3 minutes of last week’s game in New England. For those of you who don’t watch much Chiefs football (who does) this is what Andy Reid does. His schemes or gameplans or personnel moves are not what makes him a bad coach, it’s his damn clock management! He’s done it for years! His excuse after this one: “We didn’t want to leave any time on the clock for the Patriots.” As thankful as I was for Reid’s clock blunder, wouldn’t it have made more sense to score as quickly as possible, and leave that time on the clock for your defense to stop the Pats after you try the onside kick you have a 5% chance of recovering? I can’t believe he still has a job in the NFL. Sorry, just had to get one last Andy Reid crack in before the end of the season. Maybe I’ll somehow sneak another shot at him into my Super Bowl preview. We’ll see. Alright, here are my picks for today’s games:
3:00
Patriots (-3) at Broncos
You know those movie series that just go on one movie too long? Rocky V? The Godfather: Part III? I have the same feeling about Brady v. Manning part XVII. That’s 17 for those of you who weren’t sure. Full disclosure, I had to look it up–roman numerals are hard. The first 16 installments of the Brady/Manning rivalry have each been given the billing of a prize match by the media, and almost every single meeting has met the expectation. Brady and Manning always play each other close. 11 of the 16 times they’ve played each other, the game has been decided by 10 points or less. The games are always memorable, whether it’s good or bad. As a Pats fan, I’m still not sure what’s worse, an hour long conversation about the Keith Faulk 4th and 2 play in Indy, or shock therapy. It’s a toss up. This week, the game has received the same billing it has in the past; the meeting of two of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, playing for the highest stakes possible, in a matchup that will only enhance the already immense legacy of the winner. Fortunately, I was able to keep myself from drowning in the overplayed narrative this time around. As much as the media, or all of America for that matter, want this to be the same Brady/Manning rivalry we’ve seen 16 times before, that’s not what we’re going to get in the AFC championship game. Just like the final episodes of the Rocky/Godfather series, this edition of the Brady/Manning saga is going to be so far from the standard of the previous ones that we universally agree to forget about it in 10 years when we discuss the Brady/Manning rivalry. Bet you didn’t even know there was a Jaws 3, did you? That doesn’t mean this game won’t be good. It could even be great. But it won’t be a Brady/Manning classic, I can promise you that. Peyton just isn’t skilled enough on his own anymore. If Denver wins this game, it will be on defense, and by running the ball (I can’t wait for Peyton to make me eat my words on that one).
Fact: Tom Brady has thrown more touchdown passes (3) in Denver this season than Peyton Manning (1). Is that stat relevant? Absolutely not. But I found it and felt the need to throw it in somewhere. We can all agree that the NFL’s worst nightmare is the idea of Roger Goodell having to hand the Lombardi trophy to Brady, Belichick and Kraft, right? It would be the ultimate cherry on top of the embarrassment that Deflategate was for the NFL. That’s why I’m 100% convinced that the NFL purposefully assigned Ed Hochuli to be the head official for this game. Since 2008, the Denver Broncos are 6-0 in games officiated by Ed Hochuli. The Patriots? 3-4 in Hochuli games since 2010. This had to have come down from the top. This has Fidel Goodell written all over it. Alright, I get how ridiculous this must seem to those of you outside of New England and the annex of Massachusetts that is my home. But New England Patriots fans, after a year filled with insults, accusations, and a smear campaign directed by the NFL to besmirch the image of an American hero, have developed a persecution complex, and a fear that the NFL is always someway, somehow conspiring to take down Tom Brady and the Pats. But, as with everything the NFL has thrown at the Patriots over the past year, the Pats will be able to overcome the hurdle of Ed Hochuli. Do I sound crazy/biased enough yet?
When the Patriots have had all of their offensive weapons available to Tom Brady this season, the team hasn’t scored less than 27 points in any game. With the trio of Edelman, Amendola, and Rob Gronkowski, the Pats move the ball too well for any defense to really keep them off of the scoreboard. Watching Peyton and the Denver offense operate last week, it’s going to take Peyton Manning using something like, I don’t know, let’s say HGH, to put up the 28+ points necessary to hang with the New England offense. The only way for the Broncos to stick around is by disrupting the Patriots passing game, and keeping this a low-scoring game. Anyone who’s watched Pats football since about week 12 knows that they threw their running game out the window after losing both Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount for the season. They’ve since been reduced to Brandon Bolden and what appears to be a 54-year old Stephen Jackson at running back. It’s honestly hard to watch. The Patriots offense right now is entirely contingent upon their passing game. Thus the way for Denver to stay in this game is to get to Tom Brady, and throw a wrench into the New England aerial attack. And the Broncos are built to do exactly that. Finishing the season with an adjusted sack rate of 8.1%, Denver compiled 52 sacks during the regular season. They got to opposing quarterbacks more than any other defense, and if they can get to Tom Brady, and throw the Patriots off of their offensive rhythm, the Broncos can hang around in this game.
I’ll admit, I don’t like that this game is in Denver. Every Patriots fan knows the two places that Tom Brady struggles are Denver and Miami. I don’t know what it is about those cities, maybe it’s the thin air, or the club scene, or the weed, or the humidity, but things always go wrong there. Heading into this game, Tom Brady is 2-6 all-time in Denver. Since 2009, the Patriots have gone 1-2 At Mile High. In the two losses, Tom Brady was totally hamstrung when it came to his receiving options. Here were his top targets:
2013 AFC Championship game: Julian Edelman, Austin Collie, Shane Vereen, Aaron Dobson, and Matthew Mulligan.
2015, Week 12: Scott Chandler, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon LaFell.
Any passing attack that features Austin Collie and Matthew Mulligan is certainly suspect. This week, Brady will have his full arsenal of weapons at his disposal. That’s a huge difference that needs to be considered. Last week’s offensive performance against Kansas City was definite proof of how different the Patriots offense is with Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola in it. It’s also worth noting that the Patriots had the 9th best run defense this season, allowing just 98.8 yards per game. The Broncos are going to be running the ball primarily, and they’ll get their fair share of yardage. But if the Patriots can contain the run, and force Peyton Manning to make big throws, the Broncos won’t be able to move the ball effectively. It’s what the Steelers did for 3 quarters last week, and it worked well for them until Mike Tomlin decided to phone in the 4th quarter. I can’t see Denver’s banged up secondary containing the New England offense, and I don’t think they can keep up with the Pats if they hit their patented 27+ points. I’d also like to remind you that the Broncos have won 10 of their 13 games this season by a touchdown or less. They don’t dominate teams. They kick field goals, run the ball, hang around, and then pounce on the opposing team’s late mistakes. The Patriots don’t really make many mistakes. We’ve seen plenty of crazy things transpire throughout the Brady v. Manning rivalry, but I think this one is pretty black and white. By the way, I’ll be watching Saw VI, The Hangover 3 and a few other disappointing sequels in preparation for this game if anyone wants to join me.
Patriots (-3.5) over Broncos
6:40
Cardinals (+3) at Panthers
I’ll apologize now to my Carolina and Arizona readership, I’m not going to write 1,000+ words about this game like I just did with Patriots/Broncos. It’s not happening. There just aren’t the same storylines here for me to talk about. That being said, this is an intriguing game. With weird performances last week, the Panthers and Cardinals have left us with a lot of questions. The Panthers played an absolutely flawless first quarter last week, and then scored just 10 points the rest of the game, leaving the door open for a Seattle comeback. I’m not going to put too much stock into that–it’s hard to keep your foot on the pedal, especially when the opposing team is desperate and your defense spends the entire second half on the field–but it’s still concerning. The Cardinals played an uncharacteristically weak game against Green Bay, and were beaten on two do-or-die Hail Mary’s in the Packer’s final drive. I don’t remember a lot of Super Bowl teams who let that happen. Then again, I don’t really remember ever seeing anything like that happen anyway. That sequence of consecutive Hail Mary’s was pretty unbelievable. I’ve never seen anything like it! How did we not get Aaron Rodgers the ball again in that game! WE NEED TO CHANGE THE OVERTIME RULES!
Sorry, the sensationalist sports media personality in me came out for a second. My bad. I’ll try extra hard to contain myself during this game when Cam Newton has the audacity to celebrate a touchdown and then subsequently hand the ball to a child in the stands. I’ll tell you, it’s going to be tough. Honestly, since about week 10, this has felt like Cam Newton’s year to make the Super Bowl. He and the Panthers have consistently dominated nearly everyone they’ve played so far, and have been doubted and questioned the whole time. Doesn’t all sports movie history point to the black quarterback, who has been chastised all year by the media for being “cocky”, proving all of the haters wrong and getting to the championship game? If that doesn’t, here’s what might: The Panthers are 9-0 at home this season, and haven’t lost there since 2014. Cam Newton has accounted for 27 touchdowns and just 1 interception in his last 9 starts. The Panthers defense boasts not one, but two potential defensive player of the year candidates in Josh Norman and Luke Kuechly. The Panthers are now 16-1 on the season in games in which at least half of the media is doubting them. I think that they may finally actually be good. I don’t know, just a hunch.
For you Cardinals fan who are still upset about how poor your defense looked on that final drive, I have a stat to cheer you up. Since 1975, the Arizona Cardinals are undefeated in games in which they give up two, 50+ yard Hail Marys on one drive in the final minute of regulation. Fine, that’s only happened once, and it was last week when they won, but still. One thing no one (including me) had considered going into last week’s game was that Carson Palmer had never won a playoff game. I built him up before that game figuring he’d look just as strong and confident as he had in the regular season. He could not have looked more lost going up against the aggressively average Packers D. His throws were off, he was mistiming his receivers’ routes, and the errant interception he threw late in the game was indefensible. I was pretty disappointed with the way he played. If that’s how he looked going up against the Packers’ secondary, I’m concerned about how he’ll play against Carolina’s DBs. At the same time, Arizona’s secondary has the personnel to smother Cam Newton’s receivers. Outside of Greg Olsen, the Panthers posses a group of nothing-to-write-home-about wideouts who have miraculously performed particularly well with Cam Newton this year. But I don’t care what anyone tells me, Ted Ginn Jr. is as run of the mill as run of the mill gets. If I’m Bruce Arians, I let Greg Olsen get his yards, and I make sure my defensive backs take the receivers out the game. Take away Cam’s options, and you’ll force him into mistakes.
Here’s what I know about Charlotte, NC: They just got slammed by snow. The storm hit them overnight Friday into early Saturday morning , so by game time it will have been over 24 hours since the snow subsided, but that doesn’t mean the field conditions are going to be great. Last week in the divisional round, the field was an absolute mess, and it neutralized a lot of the speed on both sides. This week the field is going to be frozen and torn up. I have a feeling it’s going to be a really ugly, really close game. I don’t know who to go with here. They’re both really strong teams, but I don’t actually know how strong either is. Had either one played complete games last week, this would be a lot easier. With the bad weather and strong defenses, I anticipate this game coming down to a play or two on offense, and if that’s the case, I’ll take Cam’s athleticism and playmaking ability over anything Carson Palmer can do. And hey, it only took me 919 words to break this game down. Under 1,000 words, just like I promised. To quote Sarah Palin, “I’ve never been known for my brevity”.
Panthers (-3) over Cardinals.
By the way, when you’re watching the AFC Championship Game listen to how Nantz and Simms commend Peyton’s impeccable audibles and hand-offs. It’s unbelievable. They could not be more in the bag for the Manning family. On an unrelated note, Peyton and Nantz employ the same agent, share a cabin in Deer Valley, and spend their June Sundays feeding each other seedless fruits.
Enjoy your weekend football everyone!
Divisional Round NFL Picks
By Eli Lederman
1-16-16
Well, I was supposed to have an exclusive with El Chapo, but then Sean Penn beat me to it, and got him caught. I guess you’ll just have to read another one of my NFL playoff picks columns instead.
Saturday
4:35
Chiefs at Patriots (-5)
1-16-16
Well, I was supposed to have an exclusive with El Chapo, but then Sean Penn beat me to it, and got him caught. I guess you’ll just have to read another one of my NFL playoff picks columns instead.
Saturday
4:35
Chiefs at Patriots (-5)
I’m not sure that I can continue to totally discount the Kansas City Chiefs (that’s exactly what I’m about to do). 11 straight wins is a significant accomplishment in the NFL no matter who you beat, or how much you win by, or how inconceivable it is. The Chiefs streak has been impressive; there’s no way around it. That being said, I’m also not going to let a win over the Houston Texans shift any of thoughts about them. They’re not a scary playoff team. Yeah, their defense is pretty great. They rank 7th in opponent's plays for a loss, stopping opposing offenses behind the line of scrimmage on 22% of their plays, and they ranked 4th in the league this season in sacks with 47. There is no debating the strength of the KC defense. What the Chiefs defense has done though, is mask Kansas City’s 25th ranked offense. Over the last 11 games, Alex Smith has been as average as ever, throwing for just 182.3 YPG during the team’s winning streak. The rushing trio of Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, and Knile Davis has been surprisingly formidable, carrying the team offensively, but of their 11 wins, 8 of them have come against bottom-half rushing defenses. Lost in last week's drubbing of the Texans, was the fact that the Chiefs scored just 6 points off of 5 Houston turnovers. Strong playoff football teams do much more with much less. Their offensive execution has been suspect, and without Jeremy Maclin, their leading pass catcher, at full-strength I’m concerned they’ll struggle offensively this week.
Anyone who watches the New England Patriots knows how vital Julian Edelman is to their offense. He’s Tom Brady’s go to receiver, who provides Brady with a sure ten yards whenever he wants, no question about it. When Edelman went down in week 11 with a small fracture in his left foot, the expectation was that the Pats offense would take a hit. Even so, I don’t think anyone was able to fully comprehend the impact that Edelman has on the field until he wasn’t out there. In the ten games he played during the regular season, the Patriots offense averaged 418.6 YPG. Without him, just 317.6 YPG. The Pats offense went off the deep end in December without Julian Edelman. Sure, their relative offensive struggles weren’t helped by injuries to other key guys, especially on the O-line, but the efficiency this offense carried over the first 10 games of the season was gone the second Edelman left the lineup. His superior blocking down field was also sorely missed in the Patriots running game. With Edelman returning to the lineup this week, I expect to see a far more efficient Patriots offense.
The Pats threw everyone off of their scent finishing the season 2-4, and it’s great. I know, I know, leave it to the Pats fan to figure out a way to justify the team finishing the regular season losing 4 of their last 6. They looked super un-Patriot-like (unpatriotic?) in December, and totally stumbled their way into the playoffs. I’ll admit it, it’s not exactly how I hoped they would close out the regular season. But you can’t tell me that the New England team that lost those 4 games is the same one you’re going to see in Foxboro this weekend. Over their last 6 games, the Pats were without 13 different starters for a minimum of 2 games each. The team who missed the second-most starters? The Texans, who were missing 6. New England was especially snake bitten by injuries this year. This week, 12 of those 13 starters will be back for the Patriots (Dominique Easley is done for the season with a thigh injury). At full-strength, the Pats are a completely different football team, and you know it. So what that the Patriots limped into the playoffs? All that did was give people the chance to sleep on them for a second. Now Kansas City is heading to Foxboro after ripping off 11-straight wins. They’re the trendy pick! This team is “built to beat Brady!”. How many times have we seen this movie before? Give me a break. I’ll leave you with this: Brady > Smith. Belichick > Reid. ‘Nuff said.
Patriots (-5) over Chiefs
8:30
Packers at Cardinals (-7.5)
Is something like a false rumor about him and Olivia Munn getting engaged the type of thing that could shake Aaron Rodgers’ psyche before a playoff game? These are the types of things I spend my time thinking about. For those of you with better things to worry about, it was reported earlier this week that Rodgers and Munn were engaged. ESPN even spent some time on it once their all-star collection of former players stopped whining about everything that happened in Cincinnati. Munn squashed the report, and the rumor was dropped quicker than the Peyton Manning/HGH story was. I don’t know about you, but there’s something fishy about this. Something must have happened. Maybe they got in a fight. Maybe she got post-engagement jitters. Maybe she discovered the lifetime's worth of hair clippings in his closet like that chick did in Fever Pitch. Something had to have happened. That, or it was just another baseless tabloid rumor. It could really go either way. Hmmmmmmmmm...I guess we’ll never know.
Regardless of whether or not Aaron Rodgers is emotionally shaken, this should be a solid game. The Packers overcame a slow start in Washington last week, coming from behind to win 35-18, finishing the game on a 35-7 run. The Washington pass rush really didn’t show up, leaving Rodgers ample to time to throw. When I wrote last week about Aaron Rodgers’ struggles, it wasn’t an indictment of his ability, it was a gripe against all of the other players around him, who had somehow forced one of the league’s best quarterbacks to look incredibly ordinary. Give Aaron Rodgers enough time to throw, and he’s going to find a way to beat you. The DC Grudens did just that, hitting him twice, and sacking him just once, and he made them pay for it.
The issue for Rodgers and the Pack is that few teams are going to give him that much time in the pocket; and the Arizona Cardinals are not one of them. When the teams faced off in week 16, the Cards tore Green Bay’s O-line apart, sacking Rodgers 9 times, and forcing 4 turnovers. I don’t anticipate this week being such a colossal struggle for the Packers, but Aaron Rodgers’ difficulty going up against strong pass rushes this season just can’t be ignored. In Green Bay’s 6 games played against top-5 pass rushes, including their matchup with Arizona, Aaron Rodgers has averaged 208 YPG, and has completed just 60.3% of his passes. The Packers’ offensive success last week was more of an anomaly that it was the awakening of a sleeping giant. As I mentioned, this isn’t me trying to bury Aaron Rodgers. He’s really not the problem. The problem is that he has weak receivers who don’t really get open very quickly, and an offensive line that doesn’t give him a lot of time to work. That’s not a recipe for success, and going up against the Cardinals, who give opposing quarterbacks just 2.66 yards per dropback on average, I’m concerned that Rodgers and the Packers are going to struggle to move the ball.
The Packers made me pay for picking against them last week. It was classic Aaron Rodgers killing me when all I needed was a Green Bay loss to go 4-0 with my weekend picks. This week, I just can’t back him and the Pack with the way they looked in Arizona 3 weeks ago. The Cards tout one of the league’s best defenses, giving up just 19.6 PPG, with a secondary that can lockdown Green Bay’s limited receiving core. Throw in the league’s most balanced offense, who finished with the most yards in the league, plus home-field, and there’s no way I can go with Green Bay. Hopefully Olivia Munn will be there to support Aaron Rodgers after the loss. Although, I think I saw on the cover of People that she pawned off his engagement ring to take a Hawaiian vacation. That rumor has to be true!
Cardinals (-7.5) over Packers
Sunday
1:05
Seahawks at Panthers (-3)
Regardless of whether or not Aaron Rodgers is emotionally shaken, this should be a solid game. The Packers overcame a slow start in Washington last week, coming from behind to win 35-18, finishing the game on a 35-7 run. The Washington pass rush really didn’t show up, leaving Rodgers ample to time to throw. When I wrote last week about Aaron Rodgers’ struggles, it wasn’t an indictment of his ability, it was a gripe against all of the other players around him, who had somehow forced one of the league’s best quarterbacks to look incredibly ordinary. Give Aaron Rodgers enough time to throw, and he’s going to find a way to beat you. The DC Grudens did just that, hitting him twice, and sacking him just once, and he made them pay for it.
The issue for Rodgers and the Pack is that few teams are going to give him that much time in the pocket; and the Arizona Cardinals are not one of them. When the teams faced off in week 16, the Cards tore Green Bay’s O-line apart, sacking Rodgers 9 times, and forcing 4 turnovers. I don’t anticipate this week being such a colossal struggle for the Packers, but Aaron Rodgers’ difficulty going up against strong pass rushes this season just can’t be ignored. In Green Bay’s 6 games played against top-5 pass rushes, including their matchup with Arizona, Aaron Rodgers has averaged 208 YPG, and has completed just 60.3% of his passes. The Packers’ offensive success last week was more of an anomaly that it was the awakening of a sleeping giant. As I mentioned, this isn’t me trying to bury Aaron Rodgers. He’s really not the problem. The problem is that he has weak receivers who don’t really get open very quickly, and an offensive line that doesn’t give him a lot of time to work. That’s not a recipe for success, and going up against the Cardinals, who give opposing quarterbacks just 2.66 yards per dropback on average, I’m concerned that Rodgers and the Packers are going to struggle to move the ball.
The Packers made me pay for picking against them last week. It was classic Aaron Rodgers killing me when all I needed was a Green Bay loss to go 4-0 with my weekend picks. This week, I just can’t back him and the Pack with the way they looked in Arizona 3 weeks ago. The Cards tout one of the league’s best defenses, giving up just 19.6 PPG, with a secondary that can lockdown Green Bay’s limited receiving core. Throw in the league’s most balanced offense, who finished with the most yards in the league, plus home-field, and there’s no way I can go with Green Bay. Hopefully Olivia Munn will be there to support Aaron Rodgers after the loss. Although, I think I saw on the cover of People that she pawned off his engagement ring to take a Hawaiian vacation. That rumor has to be true!
Cardinals (-7.5) over Packers
Sunday
1:05
Seahawks at Panthers (-3)
Did you guys know that Russell Wilson had been married before? Who knew? I was aware of his relationship with Ciara, and the whole “waiting for marriage so we can cleanse each other” thing, but I had no idea he’d been previously married. Man, the things you find when you do some research! So does that mean that he has...but wait...did he...how...what? I’m sufficiently confused. Give me a second to regroup here.
Alright, back to football. If you’re a Panther fan you can’t be happy with who you just drew. You go 15-1, dominate all of your competition, earn a top-seed, and end up playing the team that represented the NFC in the Super Bowl 2 years running? Right now, there’s no one you want to see in January less than Russell Wilson. The man just knows how to win in the playoffs. At this point I’m convinced that he somehow played a role in that missed kick last weekend. I’ve also decided to give up trying to poke holes in this Carolina team. There’s no conceivable reason they should be this good, but they are. I seriously have no idea how Cam Newton put together an MVP caliber season throwing to Ted Ginn Jr. and Philly Brown. Regardless of my skepticism about their roster, here are some numbers that I can’t argue with: 142.6 YPG on the ground, 88.4 rushing yards allowed per game, an adjusted sack rate of 7.1%, and 31.3 PPG offensively. Those are some serious numbers. From this point on I’ll reserve all of my negative judgements on this team. Questionable roster or not, they’re for real.
Do I give the Seahawks a break for putting up just 10 points last Sunday because it was hellishly cold in Minnesota, or do I penalize them for it because it was like the 6th time they’ve put up a clunker like that this year? I guess you can chalk last week up to the arctic chill and the fact that beer was freezing before it could be consumed. Anyway, it’s not like the Seattle offense is what’s going to win them this game. We all know that Russell Wilson will pull off some improbable sequence in the 4th quarter where the football bounces off of 4+ different players and somehow ends with no-name receiver X running into the endzone for a score. The key for the Seahawks will be their defense. It’s been the team’s trademark during their playoff campaigns, and it’s no different for them this year. Seattle led the league in both points allowed and rushing defense this season, and have given up just one touchdown in their last 6 road games. When they faced off against the Panthers in week 6, the Seahawks handled Cam Newton relatively well. They pressured him into 2 turnovers, and kept him under 200 yards of total offense until the final 4 minutes of the game. Keeping him at bay would certainly keep the burden off of the Seattle offense.
This is a tough game to pick. Seattle’s D, and Russell Wilson’s experience are really enticing, especially with the potential for rain. But I can’t go against Carolina after I just decided to back them. As much as I like the Seahawks in bad weather, I never like picking against the “We’re really good but no one believes in us” angle. It’s never a good idea. I’ll take the Panthers. How do I feel knowing one of my picks rests on Cameron Artis-Payne and a 33-year old Jerricho Cotchery, you ask? Not great.
Panthers (-3) over Seahawks
4:05
Steelers at Broncos (-7.5)
Alright, back to football. If you’re a Panther fan you can’t be happy with who you just drew. You go 15-1, dominate all of your competition, earn a top-seed, and end up playing the team that represented the NFC in the Super Bowl 2 years running? Right now, there’s no one you want to see in January less than Russell Wilson. The man just knows how to win in the playoffs. At this point I’m convinced that he somehow played a role in that missed kick last weekend. I’ve also decided to give up trying to poke holes in this Carolina team. There’s no conceivable reason they should be this good, but they are. I seriously have no idea how Cam Newton put together an MVP caliber season throwing to Ted Ginn Jr. and Philly Brown. Regardless of my skepticism about their roster, here are some numbers that I can’t argue with: 142.6 YPG on the ground, 88.4 rushing yards allowed per game, an adjusted sack rate of 7.1%, and 31.3 PPG offensively. Those are some serious numbers. From this point on I’ll reserve all of my negative judgements on this team. Questionable roster or not, they’re for real.
Do I give the Seahawks a break for putting up just 10 points last Sunday because it was hellishly cold in Minnesota, or do I penalize them for it because it was like the 6th time they’ve put up a clunker like that this year? I guess you can chalk last week up to the arctic chill and the fact that beer was freezing before it could be consumed. Anyway, it’s not like the Seattle offense is what’s going to win them this game. We all know that Russell Wilson will pull off some improbable sequence in the 4th quarter where the football bounces off of 4+ different players and somehow ends with no-name receiver X running into the endzone for a score. The key for the Seahawks will be their defense. It’s been the team’s trademark during their playoff campaigns, and it’s no different for them this year. Seattle led the league in both points allowed and rushing defense this season, and have given up just one touchdown in their last 6 road games. When they faced off against the Panthers in week 6, the Seahawks handled Cam Newton relatively well. They pressured him into 2 turnovers, and kept him under 200 yards of total offense until the final 4 minutes of the game. Keeping him at bay would certainly keep the burden off of the Seattle offense.
This is a tough game to pick. Seattle’s D, and Russell Wilson’s experience are really enticing, especially with the potential for rain. But I can’t go against Carolina after I just decided to back them. As much as I like the Seahawks in bad weather, I never like picking against the “We’re really good but no one believes in us” angle. It’s never a good idea. I’ll take the Panthers. How do I feel knowing one of my picks rests on Cameron Artis-Payne and a 33-year old Jerricho Cotchery, you ask? Not great.
Panthers (-3) over Seahawks
4:05
Steelers at Broncos (-7.5)
I’m not going to waste anyone’s time with a breakdown of how Ben Roethlisberger, with his shoulder hanging on by a thread, has the edge over the Broncos. Nor will I try to throw out some wonky stat that proves that in the event Big Ben doesn’t play, Landry Jones will be able to dissect the league’s best pass defense. The Steelers are missing everyone. Antonio Brown? Out. DeAngelo Williams? Out. Roethlisberger? Questionable. If he plays, he’ll be so hopped up on painkillers and Denver air that he thinks his name is Byron. The fact of the matter is that the Steelers are going to be shorthanded, and have no chance of winning this game by being conventional and just outplaying the Broncos. But that doesn’t mean they can’t win. Whether they’ll have a shot all depends on Peyton Manning.
Other than the fact that he’s America’s darling who has massaged the media for the past 19 years, is there any reason that we’ve just accepted that Peyton Manning is going to be good this week? Did we all forget how poorly he played earlier this season? In his 9 starts, he threw 9 TD’s and 17 interceptions, with a completion percentage of 59.8%. Why will anything be better now when it’s freezing in Denver and he can’t feel his hands? I’m not sure that he’s going to be able to really show up this time around. In order for the Broncos to succeed, they’ll need their tandem of running backs, C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, to carry a significant load offensively. I honestly had no idea about this prior to this game, but the Steelers actually have the league’s 5th best rushing defense, allowing just 91.2 YPG on the ground. So say the Steelers contain the running backs, how confident are you in 39-year old Peyton Manning with 4 neck surgeries behind him, in below freezing weather? Throw in early playoff exits in 2 of his last 3 postseasons, and I’m not particularly confident in Peyton.
Of course, the running backs could come out strong, run all over Pittsburgh, and end the game after one quarter. There’s no way anyone can take the Steelers right now based on their personnel. They’re just not healthy. That being said, if they can contain Denver offensively, and keep themselves in it deep into the contest, they might be able to steal the game. I can’t pick against the NFL’s second best defense, but don’t be surprised if Denver struggles a bit this week.
Broncos (-7.5) over Steelers
Enjoy this weekend's game everybody!
Wild Card Weekend Picks
By Eli Lederman
1-9-16
I hated week 17 of the NFL season. Is that a bad way to start this seeing as how my last article was about how awful this season has been? Trust me I’m not a depressed NFL fan. I’m doing fine. It was just another terrible week of football. The Pats lost in a game where Tom Brady threw 21 passes, Seahawks/Cardinals was over after the first 3 Seattle drives, and the 4-11 Chargers gave the Broncos all they could handle because of course they did. Even seeing the Jets lose wasn’t very satisfying. My heart actually stopped for a solid 6 seconds after Ndamukong Suh took a shot at Tom Brady’s knees, with Brady subsequently lying on the ground, as I too lay down in agony. Easily the scariest moment of 2016. Must have been Goodell and the karma gods getting back at me for the article I put up that morning. But the playoffs are here now, and it’s time for a fresh start. The regular season was a bust, but now is football’s chance to redeem itself. Here’s to a great postseason. Now here are my picks for Wild Card Weekend.
Saturday
4:35
Chiefs (-3.5) at Texans
For any of you who want to go see The Revenant, or go to the gym, or maybe get an impromptu colonoscopy, this is the time to do it. I promise, you won’t miss anything if you skip this one. Few things will be more unpleasant than this game. There’s something about watching a team quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer going up against a team without anyone to throw the ball to that just makes you never want to watch football again. This game reeks of 13-6. With that, I want you to read the 400+ words I have to say about this borefest!
Swallowed up in the fact that the Chiefs play in Kansas City, and that their quarterback is whiter than white bread, and that they don’t have any receivers, and that they play boring football, is the fact that they play stellar defense. Finishing 3rd in total points allowed, the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 23 points to an opponent since week 4. Over that span, they’ve played the Broncos, Steelers, and Vikings, who are all in the top-half of the league offensively, and held each to under 15 points. This team runs a solid west-coast offense, and plays incredible defense. That’s a formula we know can work in the playoffs.
Am I supposed to congratulate the Texans for winning the AFC south? Seriously, 5 of this team’s 9 wins came against the Colts, Titans, and Jaguars. There’s nothing to be excited about with this team. The Texans turned their season around after starting 1-4, and slowly overtook the AFC South with 4 different quarterbacks taking snaps. With a healthy Brian Hoyer under center, DeAndre Hopkins making superhuman plays downfield, and the dangerous pass rush we all expected from JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, I guess this team was deserving of a playoff spot. The key for them is to keep the game close. They aren’t going to win a shootout where the two teams combine for 80+ points. Their offense just can’t keep up in those kind of games. They need to keep this game close going into the fourth quarter, and hope that the game breaks their way.
When healthy, Brian Hoyer has been relatively stable for the Houston Texans. That is unless he’s facing a tough pass rush. In his 3 games against top-10 pass rushes this season, week 1 against Kansas City, week 10 against Cincinnati, and week 14 against New England, Hoyer threw for an average of 177 yards and completed just 52.4% of his passes, with a total of 1 TD, and 3 picks. This week he’s going up against the league’s 4th best pass rush in the Chiefs, who finished only behind the Broncos, Patriots, and Titans in adjusted sack rate, at 7.7%. Without Pro Bowl tackle Duane Brown, I really don’t feel good about Hoyer against the pass rush. Add the Texans inability to run the ball well, and I feel even worse about them. Alex Smith can be trusted so long as he doesn’t need to throw more than 15 yards, and the Charcandrick West/Spencer Ware running back combo should keep the Texans on their toes. Barring Brian Hoyer turning into Cam Newton overnight, or Andy Reid sabotaging his own team with a streak of terrible coaching decisions (very much within the realm of possibility), the Chiefs will extend their winning streak to 11. Enjoy your high intensity acupuncture session, and make sure you get back for the late game.
1-9-16
I hated week 17 of the NFL season. Is that a bad way to start this seeing as how my last article was about how awful this season has been? Trust me I’m not a depressed NFL fan. I’m doing fine. It was just another terrible week of football. The Pats lost in a game where Tom Brady threw 21 passes, Seahawks/Cardinals was over after the first 3 Seattle drives, and the 4-11 Chargers gave the Broncos all they could handle because of course they did. Even seeing the Jets lose wasn’t very satisfying. My heart actually stopped for a solid 6 seconds after Ndamukong Suh took a shot at Tom Brady’s knees, with Brady subsequently lying on the ground, as I too lay down in agony. Easily the scariest moment of 2016. Must have been Goodell and the karma gods getting back at me for the article I put up that morning. But the playoffs are here now, and it’s time for a fresh start. The regular season was a bust, but now is football’s chance to redeem itself. Here’s to a great postseason. Now here are my picks for Wild Card Weekend.
Saturday
4:35
Chiefs (-3.5) at Texans
For any of you who want to go see The Revenant, or go to the gym, or maybe get an impromptu colonoscopy, this is the time to do it. I promise, you won’t miss anything if you skip this one. Few things will be more unpleasant than this game. There’s something about watching a team quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer going up against a team without anyone to throw the ball to that just makes you never want to watch football again. This game reeks of 13-6. With that, I want you to read the 400+ words I have to say about this borefest!
Swallowed up in the fact that the Chiefs play in Kansas City, and that their quarterback is whiter than white bread, and that they don’t have any receivers, and that they play boring football, is the fact that they play stellar defense. Finishing 3rd in total points allowed, the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 23 points to an opponent since week 4. Over that span, they’ve played the Broncos, Steelers, and Vikings, who are all in the top-half of the league offensively, and held each to under 15 points. This team runs a solid west-coast offense, and plays incredible defense. That’s a formula we know can work in the playoffs.
Am I supposed to congratulate the Texans for winning the AFC south? Seriously, 5 of this team’s 9 wins came against the Colts, Titans, and Jaguars. There’s nothing to be excited about with this team. The Texans turned their season around after starting 1-4, and slowly overtook the AFC South with 4 different quarterbacks taking snaps. With a healthy Brian Hoyer under center, DeAndre Hopkins making superhuman plays downfield, and the dangerous pass rush we all expected from JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, I guess this team was deserving of a playoff spot. The key for them is to keep the game close. They aren’t going to win a shootout where the two teams combine for 80+ points. Their offense just can’t keep up in those kind of games. They need to keep this game close going into the fourth quarter, and hope that the game breaks their way.
When healthy, Brian Hoyer has been relatively stable for the Houston Texans. That is unless he’s facing a tough pass rush. In his 3 games against top-10 pass rushes this season, week 1 against Kansas City, week 10 against Cincinnati, and week 14 against New England, Hoyer threw for an average of 177 yards and completed just 52.4% of his passes, with a total of 1 TD, and 3 picks. This week he’s going up against the league’s 4th best pass rush in the Chiefs, who finished only behind the Broncos, Patriots, and Titans in adjusted sack rate, at 7.7%. Without Pro Bowl tackle Duane Brown, I really don’t feel good about Hoyer against the pass rush. Add the Texans inability to run the ball well, and I feel even worse about them. Alex Smith can be trusted so long as he doesn’t need to throw more than 15 yards, and the Charcandrick West/Spencer Ware running back combo should keep the Texans on their toes. Barring Brian Hoyer turning into Cam Newton overnight, or Andy Reid sabotaging his own team with a streak of terrible coaching decisions (very much within the realm of possibility), the Chiefs will extend their winning streak to 11. Enjoy your high intensity acupuncture session, and make sure you get back for the late game.
Chiefs (-3.5) over Texans
8:15
Steelers (-3) at Bengals
I can’t wait for 3 years from now when I see the NFL Network's Pittsburgh Steelers Road to the Super Bowl documentary that spends 20 minutes on the Jets gifting them a spot in the playoffs. Fine, the Steelers aren’t going to win the Super Bowl, but we’ll probably be able to swing a 30 for 30 about the Jets. “What if i told you that a team was in, but never really was? What if I told you that the only thing keeping a team from a new beginning, was an old foe? What if I told you that a bearded quarterback said his heart hurt, even though his ego hurt more?. Sorry, I got carried away. The Steelers absolutely should not be in the playoffs right now. Healthy, playoff teams don’t drop week 16 games against the Ravens. Pittsburgh got bailed out. But now that they’re in, Cincinnati is exactly where they want to be playing. The Steelers own the Bengals in Cincy. At Paul Brown Stadium, Pittsburgh has won 15 of their last 18 games, winning those 15 games by an average of 13.9 points. Speaking of points, I love Pittsburgh’s offense, even without DeAngelo Williams. Ranked 3rd in total offense this season, the Steelers are capable of putting up points that the Bengals just can’t match. I’m always wary of divisional matchups in the postseason-they’re just so unpredictable-but if I’m a Steelers fan, I’m feeling pretty confident going into this game.
If you’re a Cincy fan you can’t tell me you feel good about entering a playoff game with AJ McCarron as your starting quarterback. It’s been 25 years since your team has won a playoff game, and if you couldn’t do it with Jon Kitna, Carson Palmer, or Andy Dalton, what makes you think you’ll do it with McCarron? But there is some slight hope for you. For the most part, AJ McCarron hasn’t been that impressive in his 4 games since Andy Dalton went down. He’s only thrown for 2 touchdowns twice, and more than 200 yards just once. Who did he throw for more than 200 yards AND 2 touchdowns against? The Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers secondary, who allowed McCarron to throw for 280 yards in week 14, is ranked 30th in the NFL in pass defense. If the Bengals can run well with their dynamic tandem of backs, they may be able to open up the secondary further, and give McCarron a chance to make some big throws. Otherwise, I’m concerned they won’t be able to keep up with the Steeler offense.
Ultimately, I like Pittsburgh’s offensive firepower over anything the Bengals can throw at the Steelers. Yeah, I know the Bengals have one of the league’s best D-lines, and that they have the second best scoring offense in the NFL, giving up just 17.4 PPG. I just don’t the like matchup for them. Nope, I don’t have any advanced stat to back up this pick. Let’s just call this my one “I’ve got a feeling” pick. Kind of like the 6’4 guy who insists on playing point guard in a game of pickup basketball because he’s “feeling it”. Trust me, I’ve got this.
I wanted to include the video of Antonio Brown jumping right into a goal post, but the NFL wouldn't let me use the Youtube video. I'm not even trying to make a joke. Every video was blocked. Thanks Goodell. Heres the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUxlmgKUJhY
8:15
Steelers (-3) at Bengals
I can’t wait for 3 years from now when I see the NFL Network's Pittsburgh Steelers Road to the Super Bowl documentary that spends 20 minutes on the Jets gifting them a spot in the playoffs. Fine, the Steelers aren’t going to win the Super Bowl, but we’ll probably be able to swing a 30 for 30 about the Jets. “What if i told you that a team was in, but never really was? What if I told you that the only thing keeping a team from a new beginning, was an old foe? What if I told you that a bearded quarterback said his heart hurt, even though his ego hurt more?. Sorry, I got carried away. The Steelers absolutely should not be in the playoffs right now. Healthy, playoff teams don’t drop week 16 games against the Ravens. Pittsburgh got bailed out. But now that they’re in, Cincinnati is exactly where they want to be playing. The Steelers own the Bengals in Cincy. At Paul Brown Stadium, Pittsburgh has won 15 of their last 18 games, winning those 15 games by an average of 13.9 points. Speaking of points, I love Pittsburgh’s offense, even without DeAngelo Williams. Ranked 3rd in total offense this season, the Steelers are capable of putting up points that the Bengals just can’t match. I’m always wary of divisional matchups in the postseason-they’re just so unpredictable-but if I’m a Steelers fan, I’m feeling pretty confident going into this game.
If you’re a Cincy fan you can’t tell me you feel good about entering a playoff game with AJ McCarron as your starting quarterback. It’s been 25 years since your team has won a playoff game, and if you couldn’t do it with Jon Kitna, Carson Palmer, or Andy Dalton, what makes you think you’ll do it with McCarron? But there is some slight hope for you. For the most part, AJ McCarron hasn’t been that impressive in his 4 games since Andy Dalton went down. He’s only thrown for 2 touchdowns twice, and more than 200 yards just once. Who did he throw for more than 200 yards AND 2 touchdowns against? The Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers secondary, who allowed McCarron to throw for 280 yards in week 14, is ranked 30th in the NFL in pass defense. If the Bengals can run well with their dynamic tandem of backs, they may be able to open up the secondary further, and give McCarron a chance to make some big throws. Otherwise, I’m concerned they won’t be able to keep up with the Steeler offense.
Ultimately, I like Pittsburgh’s offensive firepower over anything the Bengals can throw at the Steelers. Yeah, I know the Bengals have one of the league’s best D-lines, and that they have the second best scoring offense in the NFL, giving up just 17.4 PPG. I just don’t the like matchup for them. Nope, I don’t have any advanced stat to back up this pick. Let’s just call this my one “I’ve got a feeling” pick. Kind of like the 6’4 guy who insists on playing point guard in a game of pickup basketball because he’s “feeling it”. Trust me, I’ve got this.
I wanted to include the video of Antonio Brown jumping right into a goal post, but the NFL wouldn't let me use the Youtube video. I'm not even trying to make a joke. Every video was blocked. Thanks Goodell. Heres the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUxlmgKUJhY
Steelers (-3) over Bengals
Sunday
1:05
Seahawks (-5) at Vikings
The best part of the Vikings/Seahawks game may just be watching from your couch in your heated home as 52,000 people in Minnesota freeze their butts off in -7° wind chill weather. It’s going to be brutal there. As you’re reading this, the grounds crew in Minnesota is struggling just to keep the field from freezing over. Regardless of the temperature, this may be the weekend's best game.
I don’t want to put too much stock into the week 13 meeting between these 2 teams, which saw Seahawks kill the Vikings 38-7. The Seattle game was right in the middle of Minnesota’s toughest stretch of the season, and there are so many factors that have changed since then. One aspect of that game that I will hang onto is Adrian Peterson’s rushing performance. Against Seattle, Peterson ran for just 18 yards, getting bottled up by the Seahawk defense. Sure, once the Vikings went down big in that game, they had to throw the ball more to attempt to get back into it, but AP was still stifled by the Seattle D. And it’s not the first time he’s struggled against top defenses this year. In the Viking’s 4 games against top-10 rushing defenses, Peterson has averaged just 57 yards with just one total touchdown. Without the running game to balance the offense, Teddy Bridgewater has completed 60.7 of his passes in these games, rendering the Viking offense pretty weak. Unsurprisingly, Minnesota went 1-3 in those 4 games. Without being able to establish a strong running game with their star running back, the Vikings haven’t been able to succeed this season, and against the league’s best run defense, I’m concerned they may fall into that familiar hole.
People have gotten really high on the Seahawks over the last month or so. They’re obviously this year’s “Hot Wild Card team that is capable of winning the conference” pick, and they have steam rolled almost everyone on their way to the playoffs. But they also lost to the St. Louis Rams just a couple of weeks ago. I know how weird divisional matchups can be, but doesn’t that bother you? If this team is capable of losing to the Rams, why can’t they lose to any of the NFC’s division winners? I’m not as into this team as everyone else seems to be. But, this matchup is perfect for them. Russell Wilson has been at his best this season when going up against run of the mill defenses, which is ultimately what he’ll get from the Vikings. If he can whether the pass rush, he should be able to do his thing. The Seahawk’s defense will be their true advantage here though. They finished the regular season giving up the fewest points per game in the NFL, and there is nothing on this Minnesota offense they haven’t seen before. If Seattle can contain Adrian Peterson, and force Teddy Bridgewater to throw a ton of passes, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on the Viking offense, which has averaged just 22.8 points per game.
I really want to go with the Vikings at home here. I just feel like it’s the perfect situation for them to win this game-they’re underdogs at home, the temps. could potentially be below 0°, and the ‘Hawks have been overhyped by everyone. I want to take the Vikings, but I can’t. The Seahawks just have more firepower on both sides of the ball, and in a big situation, so long as it’s not on the goal line in the Super Bowl, I trust Russell Wilson more than I do Teddy Bridgewater. Sorry, Minnesota. Please prove me wrong.
Sunday
1:05
Seahawks (-5) at Vikings
The best part of the Vikings/Seahawks game may just be watching from your couch in your heated home as 52,000 people in Minnesota freeze their butts off in -7° wind chill weather. It’s going to be brutal there. As you’re reading this, the grounds crew in Minnesota is struggling just to keep the field from freezing over. Regardless of the temperature, this may be the weekend's best game.
I don’t want to put too much stock into the week 13 meeting between these 2 teams, which saw Seahawks kill the Vikings 38-7. The Seattle game was right in the middle of Minnesota’s toughest stretch of the season, and there are so many factors that have changed since then. One aspect of that game that I will hang onto is Adrian Peterson’s rushing performance. Against Seattle, Peterson ran for just 18 yards, getting bottled up by the Seahawk defense. Sure, once the Vikings went down big in that game, they had to throw the ball more to attempt to get back into it, but AP was still stifled by the Seattle D. And it’s not the first time he’s struggled against top defenses this year. In the Viking’s 4 games against top-10 rushing defenses, Peterson has averaged just 57 yards with just one total touchdown. Without the running game to balance the offense, Teddy Bridgewater has completed 60.7 of his passes in these games, rendering the Viking offense pretty weak. Unsurprisingly, Minnesota went 1-3 in those 4 games. Without being able to establish a strong running game with their star running back, the Vikings haven’t been able to succeed this season, and against the league’s best run defense, I’m concerned they may fall into that familiar hole.
People have gotten really high on the Seahawks over the last month or so. They’re obviously this year’s “Hot Wild Card team that is capable of winning the conference” pick, and they have steam rolled almost everyone on their way to the playoffs. But they also lost to the St. Louis Rams just a couple of weeks ago. I know how weird divisional matchups can be, but doesn’t that bother you? If this team is capable of losing to the Rams, why can’t they lose to any of the NFC’s division winners? I’m not as into this team as everyone else seems to be. But, this matchup is perfect for them. Russell Wilson has been at his best this season when going up against run of the mill defenses, which is ultimately what he’ll get from the Vikings. If he can whether the pass rush, he should be able to do his thing. The Seahawk’s defense will be their true advantage here though. They finished the regular season giving up the fewest points per game in the NFL, and there is nothing on this Minnesota offense they haven’t seen before. If Seattle can contain Adrian Peterson, and force Teddy Bridgewater to throw a ton of passes, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on the Viking offense, which has averaged just 22.8 points per game.
I really want to go with the Vikings at home here. I just feel like it’s the perfect situation for them to win this game-they’re underdogs at home, the temps. could potentially be below 0°, and the ‘Hawks have been overhyped by everyone. I want to take the Vikings, but I can’t. The Seahawks just have more firepower on both sides of the ball, and in a big situation, so long as it’s not on the goal line in the Super Bowl, I trust Russell Wilson more than I do Teddy Bridgewater. Sorry, Minnesota. Please prove me wrong.
Seahawks (-5) over Vikings
4:40
Packers (-1) at Washington Racial Slurs
(Wait, I just saw the NFL blow a car up in Concussion, maybe I shouldn’t poke fun at one of the league’s most delusional owners by taking shots at his team’s outdated and offensive nickname. From this point on, I’ll just call them “Washington” or maybe the “DC Grudens”)
With the weekend’s final game, comes our 4th road favorite! What did home teams do to you Vegas? For those of you looking for some historical context, the last time 3 home teams entered Wild Card weekend as underdogs was 1990. 4 home dogs? It’s never happened. I guess this is what you get when you give AJ McCarron and Brian Hoyer home games in January. Wouldn’t have expected anything less from this wonky NFL season.
As for this game, let’s start with a comparison from week 8 on…
Quarterback 1: 275 YPG, 23 TD’s, 3 Int’s, 73.4% completion percentage
Quarterback 2: 233 YPG, 16 TD’s, 6 Int’s, 57.5% completion percentage
Quarterback 1 has to be 2-time MVP, Super Bowl Champ Aaron Rodgers, right? Nope. Ladies and Gentleman, you’re looking at Kirk Cousins. The Washington quarterback came on strong in the second half of the season, and led his team to a division title. Without him, we might be watching the Giants this weekend while I crapped my pants at the idea of a potential Pats/Giants Super Bowl rematch. Thanks Kirk! In his first full year as a starter, Cousins threw for over 4,000 yards and 29 TD’s, completing nearly 70% of his passes. The jump he made was almost as surprising as the Peyton Manning HGH accusations. Whoops, wasn’t supposed to talk about that. The NFL just blew my car up. The DC Grudens pass rush has also been a pleasant surprise, finishing with a top-10 adjusted sack rate of 7.3%. Ryan Kerrigan and Chris Baker proved themselves to be dangerous pass rushers, and will be able to get after Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. With the emergence of Kirk Cousins and a strong D-line, the Grudens have turned themselves into a slightly scary playoff team.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on the other hand, have really struggled. Losing 6 of their last 10 after starting the season 6-0, the Packers have limped into the playoffs hard. They really don’t have much going for them. Whoever ate Eddie Lacy has become the league’s most inconsistent runner, the O-line is a disaster, and their defense, strong at times this season, has shown some gaping holes over the past month and a half. Ordinarily this wouldn't be an issue. The Pack have Aaron Rodgers to bail them out. The unwritten laws of the NFL dictate that any team with a top-5 quarterback is capable of winning any game, at any moment. I’m like 85% sure I once saw Drew Brees beat the Falcons throwing passes to Richard Simmons and Jake from State Farm as Thor and the Mountain from Game of Thrones tried to chase him down. Top-5 QB’s are capable of almost anything. Too bad Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played like one since last year’s NFC title game. This season Rodgers threw for 3,821 yards, completing just 60.7% of his passes, both career lows in seasons he played all 16 games. His thin receiving corps and his weak O-line have made Aaron Rodgers look incredibly un-Rodgers-like.
After November 8th, the Packers points per game average dropped 7.1 points, and their quarterback was sacked more than anyone else in the NFL. In that same time frame Kirk Cousins was top-5 in yards, touchdowns, and completions percentage. Throw in the Washington pass rush going up against the Packers paper thin O-line, and Aaron Rodgers’ near .500 playoff record, and I’ll take the Racial Slurs.
4:40
Packers (-1) at Washington Racial Slurs
(Wait, I just saw the NFL blow a car up in Concussion, maybe I shouldn’t poke fun at one of the league’s most delusional owners by taking shots at his team’s outdated and offensive nickname. From this point on, I’ll just call them “Washington” or maybe the “DC Grudens”)
With the weekend’s final game, comes our 4th road favorite! What did home teams do to you Vegas? For those of you looking for some historical context, the last time 3 home teams entered Wild Card weekend as underdogs was 1990. 4 home dogs? It’s never happened. I guess this is what you get when you give AJ McCarron and Brian Hoyer home games in January. Wouldn’t have expected anything less from this wonky NFL season.
As for this game, let’s start with a comparison from week 8 on…
Quarterback 1: 275 YPG, 23 TD’s, 3 Int’s, 73.4% completion percentage
Quarterback 2: 233 YPG, 16 TD’s, 6 Int’s, 57.5% completion percentage
Quarterback 1 has to be 2-time MVP, Super Bowl Champ Aaron Rodgers, right? Nope. Ladies and Gentleman, you’re looking at Kirk Cousins. The Washington quarterback came on strong in the second half of the season, and led his team to a division title. Without him, we might be watching the Giants this weekend while I crapped my pants at the idea of a potential Pats/Giants Super Bowl rematch. Thanks Kirk! In his first full year as a starter, Cousins threw for over 4,000 yards and 29 TD’s, completing nearly 70% of his passes. The jump he made was almost as surprising as the Peyton Manning HGH accusations. Whoops, wasn’t supposed to talk about that. The NFL just blew my car up. The DC Grudens pass rush has also been a pleasant surprise, finishing with a top-10 adjusted sack rate of 7.3%. Ryan Kerrigan and Chris Baker proved themselves to be dangerous pass rushers, and will be able to get after Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. With the emergence of Kirk Cousins and a strong D-line, the Grudens have turned themselves into a slightly scary playoff team.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on the other hand, have really struggled. Losing 6 of their last 10 after starting the season 6-0, the Packers have limped into the playoffs hard. They really don’t have much going for them. Whoever ate Eddie Lacy has become the league’s most inconsistent runner, the O-line is a disaster, and their defense, strong at times this season, has shown some gaping holes over the past month and a half. Ordinarily this wouldn't be an issue. The Pack have Aaron Rodgers to bail them out. The unwritten laws of the NFL dictate that any team with a top-5 quarterback is capable of winning any game, at any moment. I’m like 85% sure I once saw Drew Brees beat the Falcons throwing passes to Richard Simmons and Jake from State Farm as Thor and the Mountain from Game of Thrones tried to chase him down. Top-5 QB’s are capable of almost anything. Too bad Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played like one since last year’s NFC title game. This season Rodgers threw for 3,821 yards, completing just 60.7% of his passes, both career lows in seasons he played all 16 games. His thin receiving corps and his weak O-line have made Aaron Rodgers look incredibly un-Rodgers-like.
After November 8th, the Packers points per game average dropped 7.1 points, and their quarterback was sacked more than anyone else in the NFL. In that same time frame Kirk Cousins was top-5 in yards, touchdowns, and completions percentage. Throw in the Washington pass rush going up against the Packers paper thin O-line, and Aaron Rodgers’ near .500 playoff record, and I’ll take the Racial Slurs.
DC Grudens (+1) Over Packers
Enjoy Wild Card weekend everyone.
PS- I’ll be at the DMV during the Texans/Chiefs game if anyone wants to join me.
Enjoy Wild Card weekend everyone.
PS- I’ll be at the DMV during the Texans/Chiefs game if anyone wants to join me.
11 Reasons We Know The NFL Has Been Bad This Season
By Eli Lederman
1/3/2016
New Years Eve: High expectations. Lots of build up. Lots of time spent in front of the TV. Even more time spent with people you’d never spend time with in any other situation. The ultimate let down that the night itself is; the one that leaves you saying “Hey, it can only be uphill from here!”. Remind you of anything else? The 2015 NFL season maybe?
(I don’t want you to think I’m some sort of New Years Grinch. I had a great time with some great friends on Thursday night. I just don’t find the night to be that magical. It’s just a countdown and then a ton of shouting. I would have been fine starting my new year without Kathy Griffin or Ryan Seacrest.)
Sure, this season has been good for some. The Jets may actually make the playoffs barring a Jet-like mishap. The fans who’ve been calling for more parity in the NFL have finally gotten their wish (are you happy guys?). And the people of Tampa Bay can finally say they rank top 5 in injuries caused by illegally owned pets per capita AND rushing yards! What a year for Tampa Bay! But the fact of the matter is that the NFL has truly sucked this season. I wanted to find a better term than “sucked”, but not only was it fitting, but I ripped my thesaurus to shreds 3 weeks ago after Pete Morelli blew another game with one of his patented colossal refereeing mistakes. Don’t believe me about just how rough this year has been? Here are 11 reasons why this season has been the NFL’s worst in recent memory.
1) Where did all of the good primetime games go?
Up until last Sunday night, I had never considered watching Jack and Jill over NFL football. You know, Jack and Jill, the movie where Adam Sandler plays both himself, and a 300-pound woman. That’s what Vikings-Giants on SNF did to me. It was that bad. And it wasn’t the first time this season I turned off a Sunday or Monday night football game. This season, prime time football has seen far too many games featuring the sub-.500 Dallas Cowboys, or a backup quarterback, or Chris Collinsworth. Even worse than each of these factors were the matchups themselves. Since November 1st, in a combined 19 games between Sunday Night Football and Monday Night football, there have been just 5 match-ups featuring two teams with winning records. The matchups NBC and ESPN have gotten for their premier time slots have been suboptimal to say the least. And don’t think I forgot about Thursday Night Football and the atrocity that is Color Rush uniform. Because TNF wasn’t good enough already with it’s stale AFC South divisional matchups, the NFL decided to spruce the games up even more with Color Rush uniforms. What did this attempt to sell more jerseys entail? Having the Jets and Bills wear monochromatic green and red uniforms that ostracized the league’s color blind viewers, and covering the Rams’ and Bucs’ uniforms with ketchup and mustard. Watching that ugly Jets-Bills game, I honestly envied the color blind crowd a little bit. Prime time football has just been stale and ugly this season, and it’s something no one will miss. By the way, when the Packers-Vikings game with playoff implications on SNF inevitably becomes a 72-0 blowout within the first 5 minutes, Caddyshack 2 is on TBS at 9:00 eastern.
1/3/2016
New Years Eve: High expectations. Lots of build up. Lots of time spent in front of the TV. Even more time spent with people you’d never spend time with in any other situation. The ultimate let down that the night itself is; the one that leaves you saying “Hey, it can only be uphill from here!”. Remind you of anything else? The 2015 NFL season maybe?
(I don’t want you to think I’m some sort of New Years Grinch. I had a great time with some great friends on Thursday night. I just don’t find the night to be that magical. It’s just a countdown and then a ton of shouting. I would have been fine starting my new year without Kathy Griffin or Ryan Seacrest.)
Sure, this season has been good for some. The Jets may actually make the playoffs barring a Jet-like mishap. The fans who’ve been calling for more parity in the NFL have finally gotten their wish (are you happy guys?). And the people of Tampa Bay can finally say they rank top 5 in injuries caused by illegally owned pets per capita AND rushing yards! What a year for Tampa Bay! But the fact of the matter is that the NFL has truly sucked this season. I wanted to find a better term than “sucked”, but not only was it fitting, but I ripped my thesaurus to shreds 3 weeks ago after Pete Morelli blew another game with one of his patented colossal refereeing mistakes. Don’t believe me about just how rough this year has been? Here are 11 reasons why this season has been the NFL’s worst in recent memory.
1) Where did all of the good primetime games go?
Up until last Sunday night, I had never considered watching Jack and Jill over NFL football. You know, Jack and Jill, the movie where Adam Sandler plays both himself, and a 300-pound woman. That’s what Vikings-Giants on SNF did to me. It was that bad. And it wasn’t the first time this season I turned off a Sunday or Monday night football game. This season, prime time football has seen far too many games featuring the sub-.500 Dallas Cowboys, or a backup quarterback, or Chris Collinsworth. Even worse than each of these factors were the matchups themselves. Since November 1st, in a combined 19 games between Sunday Night Football and Monday Night football, there have been just 5 match-ups featuring two teams with winning records. The matchups NBC and ESPN have gotten for their premier time slots have been suboptimal to say the least. And don’t think I forgot about Thursday Night Football and the atrocity that is Color Rush uniform. Because TNF wasn’t good enough already with it’s stale AFC South divisional matchups, the NFL decided to spruce the games up even more with Color Rush uniforms. What did this attempt to sell more jerseys entail? Having the Jets and Bills wear monochromatic green and red uniforms that ostracized the league’s color blind viewers, and covering the Rams’ and Bucs’ uniforms with ketchup and mustard. Watching that ugly Jets-Bills game, I honestly envied the color blind crowd a little bit. Prime time football has just been stale and ugly this season, and it’s something no one will miss. By the way, when the Packers-Vikings game with playoff implications on SNF inevitably becomes a 72-0 blowout within the first 5 minutes, Caddyshack 2 is on TBS at 9:00 eastern.
2) Cam Newton ranks behind Blaine Gabbert in completion %
...and Tyrod Taylor, and Brian Hoyer, and a 65-year old Matt Hasselbeck. This wouldn’t really mean anything if Cam Newton wasn’t considered the front-runner for MVP right now. At 58.5%, Cam is currently 31st in the league in completion percentage. That’s 31st out of 32 starting QB’s in the NFL. In case you’re wondering what an MVP-caliber completion percentage looks like, of the last 5 QB’s to win the award, the lowest completion percentage was 65.6%. I get that Cam is throwing to Ted Ginn Jr., Philly Brown, and at this point Ron Rivera’s nephew, but 58.5% is a paltry number for an MVP. I don’t really care if Cam wins the MVP with a number like that, but it’s certainly an indication of how thin the MVP field is that that number isn’t tanking his chance to win it. Can we institute a rule that bars you from winning the MVP if you can’t complete more passes than the 85-year old QB on the Colts? Please?
3) The 4-11 Cowboys were only eliminated from playoff contention in week 15
Here are some facts about the Dallas Cowboys’ season. Tony Romo has played in a total of 4 games. Dez Bryant has played in 9. At one point, the Cowboys lost 7 straight games. Kellen Moore still looks like he should have been trying to steal Matt Saracen’s starting job in season 2 of Friday Night Lights. Somehow this team was still in playoff contention in week 15. At 4-9 the Cowboys were still only 2 games out of first place in the division. They were also only a game from being in position to get the first overall pick. That’s when you know things are bad. I’m glad that the Redskins have since won a couple of games to give themselves a respectable record and the NFC East title. Although I have to say, the Matt Cassell/Kellen Moore QB tandem in the playoffs would probably be more interesting than watching Aaron Rodgers try to throw to Davante Adams and Jeff Janis.
4) More than half is under .500
Heading into week 17, 18 of the NFL’s 32 teams have records below .500. If that number holds, it will be the first time since 1982 that there are more losing teams in single season than winning teams. I don’t care what any parity-loving Jaguars fan tells me, there is nothing good about this. Parity is good to a certain extent, but you can’t tell me that potentially having double digit 6-win teams is a plus for anyone. This is an indication that no one is really that good. You have your 4-5 Super Bowl Contenders (I’m not even sure there are that many), and after that, it’s just a hell storm of fledgling franchises stuck in neutral. The NFL needs its 2-win teams just as badly as it needs its juggernauts. All a bunch of 6-win teams gets you is a ton of really boring games that no one is really into. Trust me, you’ll never hear anyone say “Lions-Saints is must watch TV”. Of course that is unless you work for the NFL’s scheduling department who made that game prime time football in week 15.
5) The Chiefs are in. The Steelers are not.
Let’s compare:
Team A has a Super Bowl winning quarterback, a running back who at 32 is somehow having a career year, the league’s best receiver, and two other receivers who can hurt you big time when you’re paying too much attention to the first one.
Team B has a QB who won’t throw past 15 yards, a second-string running back who was bagging groceries 5 months ago, a receiving core with 3 guys who have more than 30 receptions, and a coach who manages his time better at all you can eat buffets than he does in the final 2 minutes of a game.
Which team isn’t making the playoffs? If you’re thinking Team B, you’re wrong. C’mon, haven’t I already shown you how wonky and absurd this season has been? Of course they’re making the playoffs! Team A is the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Team B is the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite starting 1-5, the Chiefs have gone on a 9-game winning streak, propelling them into a playoff spot. The Steelers, whose season began with Super Bowl aspirations, have found themselves snake bitten by injuries, something that has weighed their season down almost as much as Mike Tomlin has. As it stands going into Sunday, the Chiefs are in the playoffs as the 5-seed in the AFC, and the Steelers, unless the Jets lose in Buffalo, are out. Nothing about this makes sense. Not even a little bit. I’m still in awe that Andy Reid hasn’t figured out a way to sink his team yet. It’s very un-Reid-like, and it’s very concerning. There’s no way he’s become a good NFL coach in his 17th year of coaching, right? Sorry, I got carried away a little bit. Not a chance. Good coach or not, Reid has his team in the playoffs without any discernible talent on his roster-the ultimate signal of how messed up this season has been.
...and Tyrod Taylor, and Brian Hoyer, and a 65-year old Matt Hasselbeck. This wouldn’t really mean anything if Cam Newton wasn’t considered the front-runner for MVP right now. At 58.5%, Cam is currently 31st in the league in completion percentage. That’s 31st out of 32 starting QB’s in the NFL. In case you’re wondering what an MVP-caliber completion percentage looks like, of the last 5 QB’s to win the award, the lowest completion percentage was 65.6%. I get that Cam is throwing to Ted Ginn Jr., Philly Brown, and at this point Ron Rivera’s nephew, but 58.5% is a paltry number for an MVP. I don’t really care if Cam wins the MVP with a number like that, but it’s certainly an indication of how thin the MVP field is that that number isn’t tanking his chance to win it. Can we institute a rule that bars you from winning the MVP if you can’t complete more passes than the 85-year old QB on the Colts? Please?
3) The 4-11 Cowboys were only eliminated from playoff contention in week 15
Here are some facts about the Dallas Cowboys’ season. Tony Romo has played in a total of 4 games. Dez Bryant has played in 9. At one point, the Cowboys lost 7 straight games. Kellen Moore still looks like he should have been trying to steal Matt Saracen’s starting job in season 2 of Friday Night Lights. Somehow this team was still in playoff contention in week 15. At 4-9 the Cowboys were still only 2 games out of first place in the division. They were also only a game from being in position to get the first overall pick. That’s when you know things are bad. I’m glad that the Redskins have since won a couple of games to give themselves a respectable record and the NFC East title. Although I have to say, the Matt Cassell/Kellen Moore QB tandem in the playoffs would probably be more interesting than watching Aaron Rodgers try to throw to Davante Adams and Jeff Janis.
4) More than half is under .500
Heading into week 17, 18 of the NFL’s 32 teams have records below .500. If that number holds, it will be the first time since 1982 that there are more losing teams in single season than winning teams. I don’t care what any parity-loving Jaguars fan tells me, there is nothing good about this. Parity is good to a certain extent, but you can’t tell me that potentially having double digit 6-win teams is a plus for anyone. This is an indication that no one is really that good. You have your 4-5 Super Bowl Contenders (I’m not even sure there are that many), and after that, it’s just a hell storm of fledgling franchises stuck in neutral. The NFL needs its 2-win teams just as badly as it needs its juggernauts. All a bunch of 6-win teams gets you is a ton of really boring games that no one is really into. Trust me, you’ll never hear anyone say “Lions-Saints is must watch TV”. Of course that is unless you work for the NFL’s scheduling department who made that game prime time football in week 15.
5) The Chiefs are in. The Steelers are not.
Let’s compare:
Team A has a Super Bowl winning quarterback, a running back who at 32 is somehow having a career year, the league’s best receiver, and two other receivers who can hurt you big time when you’re paying too much attention to the first one.
Team B has a QB who won’t throw past 15 yards, a second-string running back who was bagging groceries 5 months ago, a receiving core with 3 guys who have more than 30 receptions, and a coach who manages his time better at all you can eat buffets than he does in the final 2 minutes of a game.
Which team isn’t making the playoffs? If you’re thinking Team B, you’re wrong. C’mon, haven’t I already shown you how wonky and absurd this season has been? Of course they’re making the playoffs! Team A is the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Team B is the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite starting 1-5, the Chiefs have gone on a 9-game winning streak, propelling them into a playoff spot. The Steelers, whose season began with Super Bowl aspirations, have found themselves snake bitten by injuries, something that has weighed their season down almost as much as Mike Tomlin has. As it stands going into Sunday, the Chiefs are in the playoffs as the 5-seed in the AFC, and the Steelers, unless the Jets lose in Buffalo, are out. Nothing about this makes sense. Not even a little bit. I’m still in awe that Andy Reid hasn’t figured out a way to sink his team yet. It’s very un-Reid-like, and it’s very concerning. There’s no way he’s become a good NFL coach in his 17th year of coaching, right? Sorry, I got carried away a little bit. Not a chance. Good coach or not, Reid has his team in the playoffs without any discernible talent on his roster-the ultimate signal of how messed up this season has been.
6) The Panthers were undefeated until last week.
Since 1972, just 4 teams have started 14-0, and if you’re telling me the Panthers are one of the best 4 teams of the past 45 years, I’m laughing in your face. Carolina is a fine football team. They might be a very good football team. There’s the slightest chance they may be a very very good football team. But it was a fluky 14-0. There’s no debating the talent this team possess with Cam Newton at QB, and with their defense. But they also have 1.5 receivers whose names you actually know, and are currently on their 3rd-string running back. There are definite holes on the Panthers roster, and the fact that it took this long for someone to beat them (playing in the NFC South helped) proves how weak the competition has been in the NFL this season. The Panthers are one of the league’s strongest teams, but I certainly won’t be bouncing my grandkids on my knee, telling them about how great the Cam Newton/Ted Ginn Jr. combo was.
7) The Colts could still make the playoffs
Yeah, I know that it would take a minor miracle, but the 7-8 Indianapolis Colts aren’t officially out of the playoffs yet, and that’s absurd. With a win Sunday, and the help of about 7 different tie-breakers, 105-year old QB Matt Hasselbeck could be playing in a playoff game. How has the rest of the league not been able to close the door on this team yet? The Colts defense ranks in the bottom five defensively in both passing and rushing defense, and offensively, they have virtually no running game. There’s nothing good about this team, and I seriously can’t believe there is even a modicum of a chance that they could still make the playoffs.
Since 1972, just 4 teams have started 14-0, and if you’re telling me the Panthers are one of the best 4 teams of the past 45 years, I’m laughing in your face. Carolina is a fine football team. They might be a very good football team. There’s the slightest chance they may be a very very good football team. But it was a fluky 14-0. There’s no debating the talent this team possess with Cam Newton at QB, and with their defense. But they also have 1.5 receivers whose names you actually know, and are currently on their 3rd-string running back. There are definite holes on the Panthers roster, and the fact that it took this long for someone to beat them (playing in the NFC South helped) proves how weak the competition has been in the NFL this season. The Panthers are one of the league’s strongest teams, but I certainly won’t be bouncing my grandkids on my knee, telling them about how great the Cam Newton/Ted Ginn Jr. combo was.
7) The Colts could still make the playoffs
Yeah, I know that it would take a minor miracle, but the 7-8 Indianapolis Colts aren’t officially out of the playoffs yet, and that’s absurd. With a win Sunday, and the help of about 7 different tie-breakers, 105-year old QB Matt Hasselbeck could be playing in a playoff game. How has the rest of the league not been able to close the door on this team yet? The Colts defense ranks in the bottom five defensively in both passing and rushing defense, and offensively, they have virtually no running game. There’s nothing good about this team, and I seriously can’t believe there is even a modicum of a chance that they could still make the playoffs.
8) Almost half the league has had to start a backup QB
This has been an unprecedented year for injuries in the NFL. Combined, NFL players have spent 3,292 weeks on the injured reserve this season, more than in any other before it. I wonder why more and more players are getting hurt. Is it maybe because each week two teams get 4 days of rest before they have to play again on Thursday Night football? Or maybe because 3/4 of the league is pumping themselves up with steroids? No there’s no way. The NFL has never knowingly done anything that has hurt its players right? Oh wait...
Quarterbacks haven’t avoided the brunt of the hit. This season, 15 of the 32 opening day starting QB’s have missed at least one game. Prior to this year, the highest number of injury related quarterback replacements had been 10. The result of all these injuries? Really really bad football. I’ve seen way more Austin Davis and Luke McCown this season than I had ever wanted to see. Combined they played 3 games. Trust me, no one needs to see that much of those two. The loss of starting quarterbacks has made numerous games unbearable to watch, and has brought the whole NFL product down. For those of you wondering, I’m skipping A.J. McCarren v.s. Matt Schaub this week. I don’t even care if Katherine Webb is going to be there.
9) Jim Tomsula, Jeff Fisher, Lovie Smith, and Jim Caldwell still have head coaching jobs
I’m personally of the belief that teams around the NFL are too quick to fire their coaches. Had Chip Kelly not been the Eagles GM, and in turn had not dealt away every piece of talent on that roster, I would have said he deserved another year as head coach in Philly. It’s really hard to build a team that fits your mold in just a couple of seasons. For the most part, coaches deserve time to settle-in in this league. These 4 coaches do not. How many times do we need to see Jim Caldwell throw long on 3rd and 3 to know that he’s incompetent? Did the Lions think that the air in Detroit was so much better than in Indy, and that it would suddenly make him a good coach? Caldwell needs to go. Jeff Fisher is regarded as one of the best coaches in the league, but he’s literally been a .500 coach for the last 15 years. He can’t win more than 8 games. Time for the Rams to get rid of him. Lovie Smith has been asleep at the wheel in Tampa since he got there, and Jim Tomsula looks more like he should be trying to make bets at an AAU basketball game than he should be running an NFL team. Having better teams in the NFL starts with finding better coaches, and we can start by canning these 4.
This has been an unprecedented year for injuries in the NFL. Combined, NFL players have spent 3,292 weeks on the injured reserve this season, more than in any other before it. I wonder why more and more players are getting hurt. Is it maybe because each week two teams get 4 days of rest before they have to play again on Thursday Night football? Or maybe because 3/4 of the league is pumping themselves up with steroids? No there’s no way. The NFL has never knowingly done anything that has hurt its players right? Oh wait...
Quarterbacks haven’t avoided the brunt of the hit. This season, 15 of the 32 opening day starting QB’s have missed at least one game. Prior to this year, the highest number of injury related quarterback replacements had been 10. The result of all these injuries? Really really bad football. I’ve seen way more Austin Davis and Luke McCown this season than I had ever wanted to see. Combined they played 3 games. Trust me, no one needs to see that much of those two. The loss of starting quarterbacks has made numerous games unbearable to watch, and has brought the whole NFL product down. For those of you wondering, I’m skipping A.J. McCarren v.s. Matt Schaub this week. I don’t even care if Katherine Webb is going to be there.
9) Jim Tomsula, Jeff Fisher, Lovie Smith, and Jim Caldwell still have head coaching jobs
I’m personally of the belief that teams around the NFL are too quick to fire their coaches. Had Chip Kelly not been the Eagles GM, and in turn had not dealt away every piece of talent on that roster, I would have said he deserved another year as head coach in Philly. It’s really hard to build a team that fits your mold in just a couple of seasons. For the most part, coaches deserve time to settle-in in this league. These 4 coaches do not. How many times do we need to see Jim Caldwell throw long on 3rd and 3 to know that he’s incompetent? Did the Lions think that the air in Detroit was so much better than in Indy, and that it would suddenly make him a good coach? Caldwell needs to go. Jeff Fisher is regarded as one of the best coaches in the league, but he’s literally been a .500 coach for the last 15 years. He can’t win more than 8 games. Time for the Rams to get rid of him. Lovie Smith has been asleep at the wheel in Tampa since he got there, and Jim Tomsula looks more like he should be trying to make bets at an AAU basketball game than he should be running an NFL team. Having better teams in the NFL starts with finding better coaches, and we can start by canning these 4.
10) The Broncos might not even be that good
When games begin Sunday, the Broncos will be in position to get a first-round bye in the playoffs, and will even have the opportunity to gain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win against the Chargers, and a New England loss. At 11-4, the Broncos appear to be one of the AFC’s strongest teams. But are we sure they’re actually good? Of the 11 games the Broncos have won this year, 8 of them have been decided by a touchdown or less. 3 of those wins came in OT. That’s a lot of either/or games. By comparison, the 6-9 New York Giants who could potentially end up with a top-ten draft pick, have lost 7 games by six points or less. What kept the Giants from being 10-5, and the Broncos from being 4-11? Chance or talent? I say chance. The Broncos haven’t really dominated anybody on their way to that 11-4 record. You could look at this and say that the Broncos are a team that knows how to win close games, which may be be true. But I see it as a team who has squeaked out a lot of games, that could lose at any time. The fact that this team could be the AFC’s top seed is ridiculous.
11) Jack Del Rio not wearing a leather jacket anymore
Arguably the greatest travesty of this NFL season outside of the Deflategate saga, Greg Hardy, and the countless injuries, has been Jack Del Rio’s decision not to wear a leather jacket on the sidelines anymore. For those of you who have forgotten Jack Del Rio’s rather forgettable tenure in Jacksonville, he wore a leather jacket on the sideline every Sunday. How this isn’t still discussed regularly to this day is beyond me. It was amazing. After being fired by the Jaguars, Del Rio tossed the jacket and became the defensive coordinator of the Denver Broncos. When he was hired as the head coach of the Oakland Raiders, I figured the leather jacket would finally make a return to an NFL sideline. I’ve been greatly disappointed by Del Rio’s plain, non-leather, Raiders polo all season long. There was something unintentionally funny about the idea of the coach of the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars wearing a leather jacket. I know the jacket will return to the the sideline soon. I even put down some money on it in Vegas. If Kirk Cousins ever becomes an NFL head coach, and happens to wear a leather jacket while doing it, I will be one rich dude. The absence of Jack Del Rio’s leather jacket cast a pall over this season from day one, and has been a bad omen on this season ever since. Next time your quarterback sails a pass over a receiver's head, or a 300+ pound D-lineman rolls over your franchise left-tackle’s ankle, you can blame Del Rio.
On the bright side, we don’t have any 2-win teams, and the playoffs are shaping up to be pretty exciting. Although knowing this season, all of the favored teams will lose, and the Rams will somehow win the Super Bowl by default after the league figures out a way to connect the Patriots, and by association, 15 others teams, to the Colombian drug cartel. Enjoy week 17 everybody.
When games begin Sunday, the Broncos will be in position to get a first-round bye in the playoffs, and will even have the opportunity to gain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win against the Chargers, and a New England loss. At 11-4, the Broncos appear to be one of the AFC’s strongest teams. But are we sure they’re actually good? Of the 11 games the Broncos have won this year, 8 of them have been decided by a touchdown or less. 3 of those wins came in OT. That’s a lot of either/or games. By comparison, the 6-9 New York Giants who could potentially end up with a top-ten draft pick, have lost 7 games by six points or less. What kept the Giants from being 10-5, and the Broncos from being 4-11? Chance or talent? I say chance. The Broncos haven’t really dominated anybody on their way to that 11-4 record. You could look at this and say that the Broncos are a team that knows how to win close games, which may be be true. But I see it as a team who has squeaked out a lot of games, that could lose at any time. The fact that this team could be the AFC’s top seed is ridiculous.
11) Jack Del Rio not wearing a leather jacket anymore
Arguably the greatest travesty of this NFL season outside of the Deflategate saga, Greg Hardy, and the countless injuries, has been Jack Del Rio’s decision not to wear a leather jacket on the sidelines anymore. For those of you who have forgotten Jack Del Rio’s rather forgettable tenure in Jacksonville, he wore a leather jacket on the sideline every Sunday. How this isn’t still discussed regularly to this day is beyond me. It was amazing. After being fired by the Jaguars, Del Rio tossed the jacket and became the defensive coordinator of the Denver Broncos. When he was hired as the head coach of the Oakland Raiders, I figured the leather jacket would finally make a return to an NFL sideline. I’ve been greatly disappointed by Del Rio’s plain, non-leather, Raiders polo all season long. There was something unintentionally funny about the idea of the coach of the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars wearing a leather jacket. I know the jacket will return to the the sideline soon. I even put down some money on it in Vegas. If Kirk Cousins ever becomes an NFL head coach, and happens to wear a leather jacket while doing it, I will be one rich dude. The absence of Jack Del Rio’s leather jacket cast a pall over this season from day one, and has been a bad omen on this season ever since. Next time your quarterback sails a pass over a receiver's head, or a 300+ pound D-lineman rolls over your franchise left-tackle’s ankle, you can blame Del Rio.
On the bright side, we don’t have any 2-win teams, and the playoffs are shaping up to be pretty exciting. Although knowing this season, all of the favored teams will lose, and the Rams will somehow win the Super Bowl by default after the league figures out a way to connect the Patriots, and by association, 15 others teams, to the Colombian drug cartel. Enjoy week 17 everybody.
A Tortured Mets Fan's Attempt to Comprehend a Playoff Victory
By Eli Lederman
October 16th 2015
Remember when the Mets actually won a big game? Oh yeah, that was last night!
I don’t even know where begin. (Seriously, how would you start this column?)
To get the ball rolling, here are 5 things I wont miss from the NLDS:
1.Lucas Duda striking out 11 times
2.Justin Turner’s beard
3.Zack Grienke’s hair
3a. Clayton Kershaw’s hair
3b. A.J. Ellis’ lack of hair
4. Cal Ripken’s opinions
5. The endless stream of McConaughey/Lincoln commercials we saw a minimum of 500 times over the 5-game series.
The New York Mets have done nothing in the last 25 years to make us believe that they could win game 5. Maybe it was Kenny Rogers walking in Andruw Jones in the bottom of the 11th in the ’99 NLCS, or losing to the Yankees in the World Series in ’00, or watching Endy Chavez save the game in Game 7 of the ’06 NLCS, only to see Yadier Molina stick the knife into that magical Mets season one inning later, or maybe it was either of the two collapse in ’07 and ’08. Any single Oliver Perez moment from 2006-2011 could have made you think that this franchise was destined never to win again.
(Side note: The only reason Oliver Perez ever put on a New York Mets uniform was because Duaner Sanchez was injured in a taxi cab accident in Miami just days before the 2006 trade deadline. Seldom remembered fact: Duaner was an absolute stud as Billy Wagner’s set-up man through the first half of the season in 2006. The Mets were forced to trade for Perez at the deadline to sure up the bullpen. I blame the Mets not winning it all in ’06, and the ensuing 5 years of abysmal pitching that Mets fans were forced to endure on that Miami cab driver. For those wondering, my 10-year long Liam Neeson level search for that driver has yet to yield any meaningful results.)
Historically, there was no reason for Mets fans to expect anything different in Game 5, and the Mets really never should have won that game. Jacob deGrom certainly didn’t have his best stuff, battling and worming his way out of at least four potentially game-ending innings. The offense couldn’t generate much of anything-just 4 hits from their top seven hitters (3 of those hits coming from Daniel Murphy whose religious zeal finally paid its dividends), and a total of 11 K’s.
The Dodgers on the other hand, looked as though they were destined to win. After the Mets gained the momentum by getting a run off of Zach Grienke in the top of 1st, LA took it right back in the bottom half, scoring 2 runs of their own. The Dodgers seemingly had a runner in scoring position for the entirety of the next 4 innings, and former Met Justin Turner appeared to have turned into the second coming of Ted Williams. It felt like a game LA was supposed to win. But they didn’t.
In a sense, the Mets played the perfect game. Jacob deGrom was unconventionally masterful-walking a tight rope for 6 innings, wobbling with the wind, forcing most of Mets nation to pop Zantacs like they were Tic Tacs, but he never fell. In each of the first 5 innings, LA was able to get a man into scoring position, but every time except for the 1st inning, deGrom was able to dig deep, and make the pitches he need in order to get out of it. Offensively, Daniel Murphy would end up being all we needed. I don’t think I’m being a prisoner of the moment when I say that Murphy may have displayed one of the best individual performances in Mets history. Without Murph, the Mets aren’t winning that game-no question about it. The relief efforts of Noah Syndergaard and Jeurys Familia helped lock the game down, with Familia starting off the 9th by getting Darth...sorry, Chase Utley to fly out to right field.
The Mets just barely did what they had to do to win that game, but they came away with the win. Would it have been nice if deGrom had just thrown a non-stressful gem? Sure. Do I wish that Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes and Lucas Duda had combined for better than 1 for 15? Absolutely. But the Mets did what they needed to do to advance, and we should really all just consider ourselves lucky that Daniel Murphy stopped at just thanking his Lord and Savior postgame.
That game was stressful; there’s no two ways about it. But this is what we do it for right? We watch these games, and subject ourselves to all of that stress and anguish just for moments like these. You lived through all of the bad moments-the blown late-game leads, the Opening Day lineups that included guys like Gary Matthews Jr., Willie Harris, and Andres Torres, and the knee-buckling collapses that made you reconsider your life choices-all for a big win, and a feeling like this one. If you’re a true Mets fan, you can’t tell me you didn’t wake up this morning, and despite getting under 6 hours of sleep (You were so jacked up after that win last night, there is no chance you fell asleep before 1:00 AM), shot right up. This is what we have waited for-and now it’s here.
When you watch a team for a long enough time, you feel a certain connection to it. You see these people celebrating who you feel like you know, and you sort of feel like you’re part of it. Last night, I watched David Wright pouring champagne all over his teammates, and I thought to myself, “There’s a guy who been to hell and back, he deserves this. This is what he came back for”. When you stick with a team for 6 months, and everything culminates in a champagne party, it feels pretty damn good. Even if you aren’t covered in bubbly.
October 16th 2015
Remember when the Mets actually won a big game? Oh yeah, that was last night!
I don’t even know where begin. (Seriously, how would you start this column?)
To get the ball rolling, here are 5 things I wont miss from the NLDS:
1.Lucas Duda striking out 11 times
2.Justin Turner’s beard
3.Zack Grienke’s hair
3a. Clayton Kershaw’s hair
3b. A.J. Ellis’ lack of hair
4. Cal Ripken’s opinions
5. The endless stream of McConaughey/Lincoln commercials we saw a minimum of 500 times over the 5-game series.
The New York Mets have done nothing in the last 25 years to make us believe that they could win game 5. Maybe it was Kenny Rogers walking in Andruw Jones in the bottom of the 11th in the ’99 NLCS, or losing to the Yankees in the World Series in ’00, or watching Endy Chavez save the game in Game 7 of the ’06 NLCS, only to see Yadier Molina stick the knife into that magical Mets season one inning later, or maybe it was either of the two collapse in ’07 and ’08. Any single Oliver Perez moment from 2006-2011 could have made you think that this franchise was destined never to win again.
(Side note: The only reason Oliver Perez ever put on a New York Mets uniform was because Duaner Sanchez was injured in a taxi cab accident in Miami just days before the 2006 trade deadline. Seldom remembered fact: Duaner was an absolute stud as Billy Wagner’s set-up man through the first half of the season in 2006. The Mets were forced to trade for Perez at the deadline to sure up the bullpen. I blame the Mets not winning it all in ’06, and the ensuing 5 years of abysmal pitching that Mets fans were forced to endure on that Miami cab driver. For those wondering, my 10-year long Liam Neeson level search for that driver has yet to yield any meaningful results.)
Historically, there was no reason for Mets fans to expect anything different in Game 5, and the Mets really never should have won that game. Jacob deGrom certainly didn’t have his best stuff, battling and worming his way out of at least four potentially game-ending innings. The offense couldn’t generate much of anything-just 4 hits from their top seven hitters (3 of those hits coming from Daniel Murphy whose religious zeal finally paid its dividends), and a total of 11 K’s.
The Dodgers on the other hand, looked as though they were destined to win. After the Mets gained the momentum by getting a run off of Zach Grienke in the top of 1st, LA took it right back in the bottom half, scoring 2 runs of their own. The Dodgers seemingly had a runner in scoring position for the entirety of the next 4 innings, and former Met Justin Turner appeared to have turned into the second coming of Ted Williams. It felt like a game LA was supposed to win. But they didn’t.
In a sense, the Mets played the perfect game. Jacob deGrom was unconventionally masterful-walking a tight rope for 6 innings, wobbling with the wind, forcing most of Mets nation to pop Zantacs like they were Tic Tacs, but he never fell. In each of the first 5 innings, LA was able to get a man into scoring position, but every time except for the 1st inning, deGrom was able to dig deep, and make the pitches he need in order to get out of it. Offensively, Daniel Murphy would end up being all we needed. I don’t think I’m being a prisoner of the moment when I say that Murphy may have displayed one of the best individual performances in Mets history. Without Murph, the Mets aren’t winning that game-no question about it. The relief efforts of Noah Syndergaard and Jeurys Familia helped lock the game down, with Familia starting off the 9th by getting Darth...sorry, Chase Utley to fly out to right field.
The Mets just barely did what they had to do to win that game, but they came away with the win. Would it have been nice if deGrom had just thrown a non-stressful gem? Sure. Do I wish that Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes and Lucas Duda had combined for better than 1 for 15? Absolutely. But the Mets did what they needed to do to advance, and we should really all just consider ourselves lucky that Daniel Murphy stopped at just thanking his Lord and Savior postgame.
That game was stressful; there’s no two ways about it. But this is what we do it for right? We watch these games, and subject ourselves to all of that stress and anguish just for moments like these. You lived through all of the bad moments-the blown late-game leads, the Opening Day lineups that included guys like Gary Matthews Jr., Willie Harris, and Andres Torres, and the knee-buckling collapses that made you reconsider your life choices-all for a big win, and a feeling like this one. If you’re a true Mets fan, you can’t tell me you didn’t wake up this morning, and despite getting under 6 hours of sleep (You were so jacked up after that win last night, there is no chance you fell asleep before 1:00 AM), shot right up. This is what we have waited for-and now it’s here.
When you watch a team for a long enough time, you feel a certain connection to it. You see these people celebrating who you feel like you know, and you sort of feel like you’re part of it. Last night, I watched David Wright pouring champagne all over his teammates, and I thought to myself, “There’s a guy who been to hell and back, he deserves this. This is what he came back for”. When you stick with a team for 6 months, and everything culminates in a champagne party, it feels pretty damn good. Even if you aren’t covered in bubbly.
A Relatively Unbiased Response to Deflategate and the Judge Berman Ruling
By Eli Lederman
September 9th 2015
7 months of whatever the hell this whole thing was, and we still haven't really gotten anywhere. But hey, my QB is playing tomorrow night.
After 228 days, 1 “independent” investigation, a ruling, an appeal, court proceedings, and all of the BS that came with Deflategate, I have one thing to say…
Me? Bitter? No! Of course not! Does it bother me that my team’s quarterback has had his name and legacy dragged through the mud for the past 7 months, and that the entire time there was little to no real evidence that he had actually done anything? Sure it does. But am I bitter? Alright, Fine! Yes I’m very bitter.
As a New England Patriots fan living in New York, this saga has not been fun for me. Even spending the summer in Massachusetts didn’t provide me with any solace, thanks to the Giants, and Steelers fans I worked with. So now that this whole thing is settled (at least for the time being), I would like to set a few things straight.
There is still no concrete evidence that Tom Brady did a thing. Anything that anyone has on him is circumstantial. People argue that the text messages between the ball boys are enough to incriminate Brady, but if that were the case, then the NFL would have used them. There is no way that the guy you talk to at the water cooler or the bar, has any hard evidence on Tom Brady that the NFL did not. Sure, the court of public opinion has him found guilty based on flaky ESPN reports, and false leaks with damaging verbiage about the Patriots, that the NFL just decided never correct. But we need to remember that there is no hard evidence here.
There are also media types and regular fans alike who still insist that Tom Brady did something: Tom Brady testified in a federal court, under oath, that he had absolutely nothing to do with any deflation scheme-do you really think that Tom Brady would risk perjuring himself, and going to jail over this? Think about it…
Alright now that I have that out of my Super Bowl Champion system (whoops, did I just say that?), here is my more level-headed take.
Whether you think Tom Brady is a cheater who personally deflated footballs, or you think that this is some grand conspiracy set up by the NFL to make up for the weak punishment from Spygate, or fall somewhere in between, you have a pretty decent argument to back you up. The anti-Brady side can point to the Patriots’ questionable past of bending the rules, and to Brady’s destroyed cell phone. The pro-Brady movement can tell you that there is no definitive proof that he had anything to do with it, and that it was beyond ridiculous for Roger Goodell not to understand the conflict of interest that came with levying a suspension on Tom Brady, and then ruling as the sole arbitrator on Brady’s appeal.
But here’s the thing; this is no longer about footballs. We are never going to know exactly what happened. Brady will never say. The league won’t concede anything that might hint at this being a witch-hunt. Even when Jastremski and McNally-the Patriots suspended ball boys-write some tell-all book that they’ll cash-out on, there will still be some unanswered questions about all of this.
No matter what the truth is-whether you believe that Tom Brady played a direct role in the deflation of footballs, or you think the balls just quivered at the sight of his deep blue eyes (I happen fall into the latter category…)-Deflategate was a bad situation that the NFL handled with the grace and subtlety of Donald Trump on a campaign stop. The only reason Tom Brady is playing on Thursday night is because Roger Goodell and the NFL botched the situation. This should have been a slam-dunk for them. Despite Roger Goodell’s questionable performance as the NFL’s disciplinarian last year, the court of public opinion was still 100% behind him for the entirety of this ordeal. The absurd clause in the CBA that the NFLPA somehow agreed to, which allowed Roger Goodell to act as the arbitrator, even on cases on which he had previously ruled, left the league with a lot of latitude to screw this case up and still come out looking fine. But somehow, Goodell and the other MENSA members that he works with still found a way to mishandle this case to the point that a federal court judge determined that despite what the CBA clause appeared to say that the NFL had overstepped its authority in disciplining Brady.
All I can say at this point, as a loyal and embittered New England Patriots Fan, is thank god this is over (for now), and please, can we stop theorizing about PSI, destroyed Cell Phones, and what equipment managers might be doing for 90 seconds inside a bathroom when in all likelihood they’re just taking a piss, and start talking about football?
This is the last you’ll hear from me on Deflategate, I promise…probably…maybe…don’t hold me to that.
September 9th 2015
7 months of whatever the hell this whole thing was, and we still haven't really gotten anywhere. But hey, my QB is playing tomorrow night.
After 228 days, 1 “independent” investigation, a ruling, an appeal, court proceedings, and all of the BS that came with Deflategate, I have one thing to say…
Me? Bitter? No! Of course not! Does it bother me that my team’s quarterback has had his name and legacy dragged through the mud for the past 7 months, and that the entire time there was little to no real evidence that he had actually done anything? Sure it does. But am I bitter? Alright, Fine! Yes I’m very bitter.
As a New England Patriots fan living in New York, this saga has not been fun for me. Even spending the summer in Massachusetts didn’t provide me with any solace, thanks to the Giants, and Steelers fans I worked with. So now that this whole thing is settled (at least for the time being), I would like to set a few things straight.
There is still no concrete evidence that Tom Brady did a thing. Anything that anyone has on him is circumstantial. People argue that the text messages between the ball boys are enough to incriminate Brady, but if that were the case, then the NFL would have used them. There is no way that the guy you talk to at the water cooler or the bar, has any hard evidence on Tom Brady that the NFL did not. Sure, the court of public opinion has him found guilty based on flaky ESPN reports, and false leaks with damaging verbiage about the Patriots, that the NFL just decided never correct. But we need to remember that there is no hard evidence here.
There are also media types and regular fans alike who still insist that Tom Brady did something: Tom Brady testified in a federal court, under oath, that he had absolutely nothing to do with any deflation scheme-do you really think that Tom Brady would risk perjuring himself, and going to jail over this? Think about it…
Alright now that I have that out of my Super Bowl Champion system (whoops, did I just say that?), here is my more level-headed take.
Whether you think Tom Brady is a cheater who personally deflated footballs, or you think that this is some grand conspiracy set up by the NFL to make up for the weak punishment from Spygate, or fall somewhere in between, you have a pretty decent argument to back you up. The anti-Brady side can point to the Patriots’ questionable past of bending the rules, and to Brady’s destroyed cell phone. The pro-Brady movement can tell you that there is no definitive proof that he had anything to do with it, and that it was beyond ridiculous for Roger Goodell not to understand the conflict of interest that came with levying a suspension on Tom Brady, and then ruling as the sole arbitrator on Brady’s appeal.
But here’s the thing; this is no longer about footballs. We are never going to know exactly what happened. Brady will never say. The league won’t concede anything that might hint at this being a witch-hunt. Even when Jastremski and McNally-the Patriots suspended ball boys-write some tell-all book that they’ll cash-out on, there will still be some unanswered questions about all of this.
No matter what the truth is-whether you believe that Tom Brady played a direct role in the deflation of footballs, or you think the balls just quivered at the sight of his deep blue eyes (I happen fall into the latter category…)-Deflategate was a bad situation that the NFL handled with the grace and subtlety of Donald Trump on a campaign stop. The only reason Tom Brady is playing on Thursday night is because Roger Goodell and the NFL botched the situation. This should have been a slam-dunk for them. Despite Roger Goodell’s questionable performance as the NFL’s disciplinarian last year, the court of public opinion was still 100% behind him for the entirety of this ordeal. The absurd clause in the CBA that the NFLPA somehow agreed to, which allowed Roger Goodell to act as the arbitrator, even on cases on which he had previously ruled, left the league with a lot of latitude to screw this case up and still come out looking fine. But somehow, Goodell and the other MENSA members that he works with still found a way to mishandle this case to the point that a federal court judge determined that despite what the CBA clause appeared to say that the NFL had overstepped its authority in disciplining Brady.
All I can say at this point, as a loyal and embittered New England Patriots Fan, is thank god this is over (for now), and please, can we stop theorizing about PSI, destroyed Cell Phones, and what equipment managers might be doing for 90 seconds inside a bathroom when in all likelihood they’re just taking a piss, and start talking about football?
This is the last you’ll hear from me on Deflategate, I promise…probably…maybe…don’t hold me to that.
I'm Pretty Sick of Matt Harvey, Aren't You?
By Eli Lederman
September 9th, 2015
MATT HARVEY IS IN A TERRIBLE SPOT. BUT HE HAS NO ONE TO BLAME BUT HIMSELF...AND SCOTT BORAS
For the first time ever, it’s not the Mets’ fault, I promise.
For nearly the entire season, Matt Harvey has whined and complained about 6-man rotations, and about being pulled from games that he ordinarily would finish off. In his first season back since undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Mets have been very careful with Harvey, trying to keep his workload down, and reducing the stress on his surgically repaired arm. The understanding that most fans had was that Harvey would be limited in the regular season, and would then be given free reign come October. Everything the Mets were doing-removing him from games early, skipping his starts, adding other pitchers to the rotation, etc.- pointed to that being the case.
Then last week, everyone’s favorite agent, Scott Boras, made the sweeping declaration to the Mets that Harvey’s innings limit was 180 innings, and that his client would not surpass it. This statement led to a few days of confusion, frustration, and anger, for the Mets and their fans.
It was classic Boras, and it’s what makes him the best in the business. He’ll do whatever it takes for his clients. And while this whole situation may be in his client’s best long-term health interests, what Boras neglected to consider was the impact that this would have on Matt Harvey’s image.
As a Mets fan, I have no doubt that Harvey will pitch in October (IF they make the playoffs…Wow, your team is good for a month and you start to forget about that whole collapsing & blowing late-season leads thing they like to do). This Boras stunt is nothing more than him trying to transfer the liability onto the team if/when Harvey re-injures himself. That’s fair. It’s what any good, morally bankrupt agent should do.
And honestly, I don’t even think Mets fans are that upset about the innings limit, and the potential for Matt Harvey to miss the playoffs. Obviously it’s not ideal-we’d love to have him-and we also certainly thought that this was all figured out in February, but ultimately, I think people can respect his caution. Matt has his body, and his future to worry about. The major outcry from this situation is not about innings limits or vile agents. Yeah, that’s what sparked it, but this fan frustration with Matt Harvey has been mounting for a while.
The more we’ve watched his body language, and have heard the way he has spoken to the media, the more we have seen the disconnect between Matt Harvey and the rest of his team. I have always gotten the sense with the Mets that it’s Matt Harvey, and then 24 other guys. He has really has never made an effort to A) sacrifice a part of himself for the good of the team, and B) To even be a part of it. Maybe it’s just his machine-like focus and competitive fire, but he just doesn’t seem to ever be all that engaged or connected with the rest of the team. I feel like he’s the guy who walks into the locker room right on time, not a minute early, in a pair of $800 dollar jeans, goes out, pitches a gem, and then gets out of there as soon as possible, in his blue Maserati. That’s just what sense I have gotten from watching him interact with both his teammates, and the media.
He also didn’t help himself with the way he handled the Tommy John process. When the injury first occurred, the two options he was presented with were either to rehab the injury, or to have surgery on his elbow. Harvey took his time to decide, and was publicly adamant about the fact that it was his choice, and not the team’s. And at a certain point, that is the truth, he’s the one who should have final say about his health, but perception is everything, and people perceived this as the team being absolutely powerless.
That notion was only perpetuated post-surgery, when he publicly feuded with the team over his desire to rehab in New York, so he could go to Ranger playoff games and stay in the New York City, rather than recover with the rest of the injured Mets in Port St. Lucie, Florida. It’s hard to blame him for that, the average age in Port St. Lucie is 51-years old (Yes, I looked it up), and the city does not exactly compare to New York from a night-life standpoint, but once again he made the team look weak.
Then this season came around. Harvey was finally healthy. All the BS that we had dealt with was going to pay off-we had our ace back. And Matt did look as good as anyone could have expected him to coming off of the surgery. But at the same time, he was dramatic about being pulled from games in the 7th inning, and the 6-man rotations which of course were put in place to keep his innings down (The irony and hypocrisy of this situation is not lost on me by any means).
On Saturday, the day after this situation unfolded, Matt had the opportunity to right the ship, and to at least feign his regard for the team. When he addressed the media, he should have come out and told them, and the fans, that he was ready to pitch, and that he would be out there in October. Not only would that have affirmed his commitment to the team, but it also would have inspired hope in the fans. It just would have been the right thing to say. Instead it was this:
Harvey later told reporters that he “could not commit” past his Tuesday start in Washington.
This entire thing never should have happened. But what is really unacceptable, and ultimately selfish, is Matt Harvey letting it happen in the midst of a playoff race. Right now, this team’s sole focus should be on holding onto its lead in the division, and Matt Harvey, and his drama, have taken away from that focus.
The common thread running through each of these disputes is Matt Harvey’s choice not to deal with them behind closed doors. No reporter forced him to say something about the latest problem. He gladly let it slip, knowing that the historically stingy and poorly-managed Mets front office would take the hit once it was reported. Each of these issues could have been handled in-house, and behind close doors. But time after time, he has had no problem publicly antagonizing the team, and making them look like the villains.
In my opinion, Matt Harvey is out there every 5th day pitching for Matt Harvey, not the New York Mets. It’s hard to say that you as a fan can feel used by an athlete that you pay to watch, but I sort of feel that way. For Matt, Citi Field is just a platform for him to showcase Matt Harvey. Yes, I understand that this sport at its core, is a business, but there is no one who understands that more than him.
So listen up Matt: The fact of the matter is that Mets fans are going to cheer you on when you are mowing guys down in October (whoops, I did it again. IF…). But know this, Mets fans have long memories, and we won’t forget this one any time soon.
September 9th, 2015
MATT HARVEY IS IN A TERRIBLE SPOT. BUT HE HAS NO ONE TO BLAME BUT HIMSELF...AND SCOTT BORAS
For the first time ever, it’s not the Mets’ fault, I promise.
For nearly the entire season, Matt Harvey has whined and complained about 6-man rotations, and about being pulled from games that he ordinarily would finish off. In his first season back since undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Mets have been very careful with Harvey, trying to keep his workload down, and reducing the stress on his surgically repaired arm. The understanding that most fans had was that Harvey would be limited in the regular season, and would then be given free reign come October. Everything the Mets were doing-removing him from games early, skipping his starts, adding other pitchers to the rotation, etc.- pointed to that being the case.
Then last week, everyone’s favorite agent, Scott Boras, made the sweeping declaration to the Mets that Harvey’s innings limit was 180 innings, and that his client would not surpass it. This statement led to a few days of confusion, frustration, and anger, for the Mets and their fans.
It was classic Boras, and it’s what makes him the best in the business. He’ll do whatever it takes for his clients. And while this whole situation may be in his client’s best long-term health interests, what Boras neglected to consider was the impact that this would have on Matt Harvey’s image.
As a Mets fan, I have no doubt that Harvey will pitch in October (IF they make the playoffs…Wow, your team is good for a month and you start to forget about that whole collapsing & blowing late-season leads thing they like to do). This Boras stunt is nothing more than him trying to transfer the liability onto the team if/when Harvey re-injures himself. That’s fair. It’s what any good, morally bankrupt agent should do.
And honestly, I don’t even think Mets fans are that upset about the innings limit, and the potential for Matt Harvey to miss the playoffs. Obviously it’s not ideal-we’d love to have him-and we also certainly thought that this was all figured out in February, but ultimately, I think people can respect his caution. Matt has his body, and his future to worry about. The major outcry from this situation is not about innings limits or vile agents. Yeah, that’s what sparked it, but this fan frustration with Matt Harvey has been mounting for a while.
The more we’ve watched his body language, and have heard the way he has spoken to the media, the more we have seen the disconnect between Matt Harvey and the rest of his team. I have always gotten the sense with the Mets that it’s Matt Harvey, and then 24 other guys. He has really has never made an effort to A) sacrifice a part of himself for the good of the team, and B) To even be a part of it. Maybe it’s just his machine-like focus and competitive fire, but he just doesn’t seem to ever be all that engaged or connected with the rest of the team. I feel like he’s the guy who walks into the locker room right on time, not a minute early, in a pair of $800 dollar jeans, goes out, pitches a gem, and then gets out of there as soon as possible, in his blue Maserati. That’s just what sense I have gotten from watching him interact with both his teammates, and the media.
He also didn’t help himself with the way he handled the Tommy John process. When the injury first occurred, the two options he was presented with were either to rehab the injury, or to have surgery on his elbow. Harvey took his time to decide, and was publicly adamant about the fact that it was his choice, and not the team’s. And at a certain point, that is the truth, he’s the one who should have final say about his health, but perception is everything, and people perceived this as the team being absolutely powerless.
That notion was only perpetuated post-surgery, when he publicly feuded with the team over his desire to rehab in New York, so he could go to Ranger playoff games and stay in the New York City, rather than recover with the rest of the injured Mets in Port St. Lucie, Florida. It’s hard to blame him for that, the average age in Port St. Lucie is 51-years old (Yes, I looked it up), and the city does not exactly compare to New York from a night-life standpoint, but once again he made the team look weak.
Then this season came around. Harvey was finally healthy. All the BS that we had dealt with was going to pay off-we had our ace back. And Matt did look as good as anyone could have expected him to coming off of the surgery. But at the same time, he was dramatic about being pulled from games in the 7th inning, and the 6-man rotations which of course were put in place to keep his innings down (The irony and hypocrisy of this situation is not lost on me by any means).
On Saturday, the day after this situation unfolded, Matt had the opportunity to right the ship, and to at least feign his regard for the team. When he addressed the media, he should have come out and told them, and the fans, that he was ready to pitch, and that he would be out there in October. Not only would that have affirmed his commitment to the team, but it also would have inspired hope in the fans. It just would have been the right thing to say. Instead it was this:
Harvey later told reporters that he “could not commit” past his Tuesday start in Washington.
This entire thing never should have happened. But what is really unacceptable, and ultimately selfish, is Matt Harvey letting it happen in the midst of a playoff race. Right now, this team’s sole focus should be on holding onto its lead in the division, and Matt Harvey, and his drama, have taken away from that focus.
The common thread running through each of these disputes is Matt Harvey’s choice not to deal with them behind closed doors. No reporter forced him to say something about the latest problem. He gladly let it slip, knowing that the historically stingy and poorly-managed Mets front office would take the hit once it was reported. Each of these issues could have been handled in-house, and behind close doors. But time after time, he has had no problem publicly antagonizing the team, and making them look like the villains.
In my opinion, Matt Harvey is out there every 5th day pitching for Matt Harvey, not the New York Mets. It’s hard to say that you as a fan can feel used by an athlete that you pay to watch, but I sort of feel that way. For Matt, Citi Field is just a platform for him to showcase Matt Harvey. Yes, I understand that this sport at its core, is a business, but there is no one who understands that more than him.
So listen up Matt: The fact of the matter is that Mets fans are going to cheer you on when you are mowing guys down in October (whoops, I did it again. IF…). But know this, Mets fans have long memories, and we won’t forget this one any time soon.
2/10/15
By Eli Lederman
The 2014-2015 NBA season has been everything an NBA fan could ask for so far. In the first 4 months of the season, we’ve watched teams like the Cavs and Hawks already complete full transformations, seen Klay Thompson drop 37 points in 1 quarter for the all-time greatest Heat Check, and observed as GM Doc Rivers made moves that infuriated head coach Doc Rivers. It’s been a fascinating season full of juicy storylines thus far, and it’s shaping up to be one of the most interesting in recent memory.
But as we approach the All-Star break, and the end of the season creeps closer, there is one burning question that is going to have to be answered: Which team will secure the 8th seed in the Western Conference? With the first 7 seeds all but locked up by Golden State, Memphis, Houston, Portland, Dallas, San Antonio, and the L.A. Clippers, the battle for the 8th seed has come down to 3 teams-the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Phoenix Suns, and the New Orleans Pelicans. 2 of those 3 teams are going to miss the playoff, that’s as sure a thing as an ill-advised crunch time 3-pointer from Josh Smith. And barring any sort of Larry Sanders-esque collapse, whichever 2 teams do end up going home in May and June will finish with a record above .500, and will be forced to watch from their couches as multiple sub-.500 teams from the Eastern conference get eviscerated by the East’s top teams.
You see, there is a competitive imbalance that has been growing in the NBA over the last 5 or so years, and each year it has become more and more of a pronounced problem. As the Western Conference has gotten exponentially more competitive, the East has gone the other way, as poorly assembled and underperforming teams have destroyed the competiveness of the conference. And this year is prepared to give us the most devastating basketball injustice we’ve seen yet, as at least 2 weak Eastern Conference teams will undeservingly make the playoffs as other, more skilled teams in the West, will miss out. This is a problem that needs to be fixed.
My central issue with the current playoff format is that because the East has been so shallow for so long, you rarely get the 16 best teams in the league into the playoffs. Beyond that, teams in the West have a much tougher road to the Finals than their counterparts in the East every single year. A more fair system would simply take the 16 best teams and drop them into a playoff bracket. The best solution would be to abandon the conference system all together. But it's tough to end conferences without also dealing with the underlying schedule imbalance. Teams currently play the 14 other teams in their conference a total of 52 times per season and the 15 teams from the other conference a total of 30 times. That allows the really good East teams to goose their records and further depresses their Western counterparts. If you seeded the top 16 teams while keeping the current schedule, the East teams would still get a persistent advantage due to having many more cupcake opponents every single year.
So let's blow up the schedule.
Here's my idea to reorganize the NBA into five regions in order to reduce in-season travel, boost rest, and balance the system competitively. And also, I just like making maps.
By Eli Lederman
The 2014-2015 NBA season has been everything an NBA fan could ask for so far. In the first 4 months of the season, we’ve watched teams like the Cavs and Hawks already complete full transformations, seen Klay Thompson drop 37 points in 1 quarter for the all-time greatest Heat Check, and observed as GM Doc Rivers made moves that infuriated head coach Doc Rivers. It’s been a fascinating season full of juicy storylines thus far, and it’s shaping up to be one of the most interesting in recent memory.
But as we approach the All-Star break, and the end of the season creeps closer, there is one burning question that is going to have to be answered: Which team will secure the 8th seed in the Western Conference? With the first 7 seeds all but locked up by Golden State, Memphis, Houston, Portland, Dallas, San Antonio, and the L.A. Clippers, the battle for the 8th seed has come down to 3 teams-the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Phoenix Suns, and the New Orleans Pelicans. 2 of those 3 teams are going to miss the playoff, that’s as sure a thing as an ill-advised crunch time 3-pointer from Josh Smith. And barring any sort of Larry Sanders-esque collapse, whichever 2 teams do end up going home in May and June will finish with a record above .500, and will be forced to watch from their couches as multiple sub-.500 teams from the Eastern conference get eviscerated by the East’s top teams.
You see, there is a competitive imbalance that has been growing in the NBA over the last 5 or so years, and each year it has become more and more of a pronounced problem. As the Western Conference has gotten exponentially more competitive, the East has gone the other way, as poorly assembled and underperforming teams have destroyed the competiveness of the conference. And this year is prepared to give us the most devastating basketball injustice we’ve seen yet, as at least 2 weak Eastern Conference teams will undeservingly make the playoffs as other, more skilled teams in the West, will miss out. This is a problem that needs to be fixed.
My central issue with the current playoff format is that because the East has been so shallow for so long, you rarely get the 16 best teams in the league into the playoffs. Beyond that, teams in the West have a much tougher road to the Finals than their counterparts in the East every single year. A more fair system would simply take the 16 best teams and drop them into a playoff bracket. The best solution would be to abandon the conference system all together. But it's tough to end conferences without also dealing with the underlying schedule imbalance. Teams currently play the 14 other teams in their conference a total of 52 times per season and the 15 teams from the other conference a total of 30 times. That allows the really good East teams to goose their records and further depresses their Western counterparts. If you seeded the top 16 teams while keeping the current schedule, the East teams would still get a persistent advantage due to having many more cupcake opponents every single year.
So let's blow up the schedule.
Here's my idea to reorganize the NBA into five regions in order to reduce in-season travel, boost rest, and balance the system competitively. And also, I just like making maps.
Here’s how the schedule would work:
1. You would play two teams in your region five times each. Most of the regions are extremely tight geographically, with a couple of unavoidable exceptions. This accounts for 10 games.
2. You would play the other three teams in your region four times each. This accounts for 12 games, for a running total of 22.
3. You would play teams from two other regions three times each. This accounts for 36 games, for a running total of 58.
4. You would play teams from the remaining two regions twice each. This accounts for 24 games, for a running total of 82.
What two regions would you face thrice a year? That would rotate annually, much like the way NFL handles interconference play. In Year 1, the teams of the Pacific would theoretically face the teams of the Lakes and Big West regions three times each and the teams of the Atlantic and Southeast regions twice each. In Year 2, the Pacific teams would face the Big West and Southeast thrice each and the Lakes and Atlantic twice each. In Year 3, they'd face the Southeast and Atlantic thrice each and the Lakes and Big West twice each. In Year 4, they'd face the Atlantic and Lakes thrice each and the Southeast and Big West twice each. And the cycle repeats.
Let’s use a real live team as an example! We’ll use the Blazers. Under this plan, Portland would face the Kings and Warriors five times each, the Lakers, Clippers and Jazz four times each, the 12 teams in the Big West and Lakes regions three times each and the 12 teams in the Southeast and Atlantic regions twice each. Next year, the schedule against the other Pacific teams would remain, but they'd get three games against each of the 12 Big West and Southeast teams and two games (a home-and-home) against each of the 12 Lakes and Atlantic teams. And so on.
So now that we’ve got a brand new regular season, we can give the playoffs a face-lift as well. The new playoff system will include the 16 best teams in the NBA. No conferences, no one left out who shouldn’t be. We still have to reward division the winners somehow, so the winners of the 5 regions, along with the teams with the 3-next best records will gain home court advantage in the first round. After that, the top 8 remaining teams will fall into place as the 9-16 seeds. Here’s what it would look like if the season ended today:
No teams under .500, no matchups that look like definite sweeps, just 8 first round playoff matchups that all look exciting. Warriors-Thunder as the #1-#16 matchup? Are you kidding me? Right now we’re looking at the 21-win Miami Heat going up against the #1 seeded Hawks in the East.
One legitimate concern I understand with ending conferences and seeding the best 16 teams in the league is that it could lead to nightmare playoff travel. My counterargument would be that you already have some nightmare playoff travel in the West, which (surprise!) benefits elite East teams. Not only do they have a perennially easier path to the Finals due to poor competition beyond the top four teams or so, but they are likely to travel much less in the first three rounds of the playoffs. Sure, Portland-Miami in the first round would make for hellacious travel. But Portland-Houston wasn't exactly a picnic either.
This system doesn't achieve perfect balance -- nothing that maintains 82 games and respects the logistic and emotional need to emphasize regional play can do that. You're still at a disadvantage if your region is strong. You're still at a disadvantage if you happen to roll the Thrice Dice against two power regions.
But there is macro balance in this system. Over the course of four years, the peaks will soften and we'll approach something like fairness.
This is not a perfect system. You might end up with a perennially bad region which unbalances the schedule on a year-to-year basis. Some rivalries may lose their luster without repeat playoff pairings. Casual fans might get annoyed by the time zone issues in the playoffs. Myopic East franchises might oppose reform that could reduce their chances of ̶b̶e̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶a̶c̶r̶i̶f̶i̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶l̶a̶m̶b̶ making the playoffs.
But something like this -- tweaked heavily by folks smarter than me -- would be a real improvement on the imbalanced system currently in place.
2/2/15
By Eli Lederman
We’ll never understand it. We’re never going to be able to explain Pete Carroll’s play call at the end of last night’s Super Bowl. It was a play call that turned Carroll into the goat, made Malcolm Butler a New England folk hero, and it helped the Patriots win the Super Bowl. But it wasn’t just that play that won it for them. The Patriots won that game on Dont’a Hightower stopping Marshawn Lynch inches shy of the goal line in the final minute, on Rob Ninkovich getting a clutch 3rd down sack that got the Patriots the ball back and started their 4th quarter comeback, on Julian Edelman gutting through a hip injury, extending drives late in the game, and this game was won on the shoulders of Tom Brady, who pulled off the greatest 4th quarter comeback in Super Bowl history. They won this game playing the same type of gutsy football they played all season long. That comeback was classic Brady, operating in his element, and at his best.
Over the past 14 years, we’ve seen Tom Brady go from being just another 6th round draft pick, to becoming one of the most accomplished players in NFL history. The pretty boy from San Mateo, California somehow became the gritty quarterback that New England had always craved. In that time, no one in the NFL has won more games, no one has played in, or won as many Super Bowls, and no one has evolved more than he has.
Throughout his storied career, we’ve seen 5 different iterations of Tom Brady, here’s the breakdown:
Version #1 (2001- early-2003)
The Age of Innocence
The first iteration of Tom Brady is the least sexy of them all. He was more of a game manager at that point, but was still blessed with the instinct and skill that has never left his game. He didn’t wow you with his stats, or with his arm strength, but he was a winner, and he was an integral part of the Patriots first Super Bowl victory.
Version #2 (mid-2003-2006)
The Reche Caldwell Era
That’s really the best way to describe it. At this point, Brady was beginning to blossom into a star quarterback, and he was doing it with a historically weak receiving core. His top two receivers at the time were Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney… lets just say he wasn’t playing with Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Dallas Clark…Whoops, sorry Peyton. He abandoned that game manager title, and began to win games by ruthlessly controlling them rather than just relying on his teams’ running game and defense. This Tom Brady won 2 Super Bowls, and became one of the NFL’s biggest stars.
Version #3 (2007-2009)
The Close But No Cigar Era
This was Brady’s prime. That is not to say that he hasn’t been in his prime for the last 10 years or so, but this was Tom Brady at his statistical best. He tore defenses apart. He just couldn’t be stopped. This period saw Tom have his best season; the 2007, 18-1 season was by far his best, breaking Peyton Manning’s single-season touchdown record, and winning an MVP award. Somehow this era didn’t see Brady and the Patriots win a Super Bowl, partially due to Brady missing the entire 2008 season with a torn ACL.
Version #4 (2010- week 4 2014)
The “Everyone in New England is hoping Brady doesn’t get fed up with the lack of support and leaves” Era
This was a seasoned Tom Brady. He had a decade of experience under his belt, and he made up for his slightly declining skill set with his veteran quarterback savvy. He won another MVP award, played in 3 conference championship games, but still couldn’t bring in that 4th Super Bowl title. This was the most heartbreaking Tom Brady. Surrounded by weak supporting casts, Patriots fans everywhere got scared as we thought we were seeing the end of our star’s prime being wasted.
That’s the first 13 years of Tom Brady’s career in a nutshell.
The 5th iteration of Tom Brady is the one that we saw this season, and will hopefully continue to see for at least another year or two. This version is the one that came alive after the blowout in Kansas City, that put all of the doubters back in their place when he steamrolled through the AFC to another 1-seed, and this is the same version of Tom Brady who persevered through the last two weeks, as rumors swirled about deflated footballs, and brushed all of that off to win himself another Super Bowl. This Tom Brady took the good things from the first 4 versions of himself, threw in a little bit of attitude, and became an even better version of himself. And after watching him for an entire season, fist-pumping, f-bomb dropping, third down scrambling, sideline stomping Tom Brady, or version #5 Tom Brady, is my favorite Tom Brady.
And last night that Tom Brady delivered. The way that game played out was the only way it could’ve for this year’s Patriots, and for this year’s Tom Brady. Down 10 points in the 4th quarter, Tom brought the team back in front with 2 masterful drives; drives that were extended by big 3rd down conversions and gutsy plays, both of which were standard with this year’s team. And to top it off in the most 2014-2015 Patriots way possible, the game was ended on a goal line interception by a cornerback that most Patriots fans didn’t know of prior to that moment.
There was something special about watching Tom Brady this season. You could tell he wanted it, more than ever before. And the fans wanted it for him too, at least one last time. You could feel it during the Cincinnati game, when Gillette Stadium erupted in a “Brady” chant. And you felt it again when he left to a standing ovation in the AFC title game, Patriots fans unsure of when we might see Tom Brady, our guy, again, playing in another conference championship on our own turf. And you felt it a million times in between. Maybe it was that uncertainty that made this season so special. As a fan base, we felt our dynasty slipping away from us after the loss in Kansas City, and once we got it back, we weren’t going to let go, not yet. That’s why the corny 80’s song Your Love by the Outfield became our playoff anthem. Let’s ignore the fact that the song is actually about cheating (Oy!), and look at the chorus…
I don't wanna lose your love tonight
I just wanna use your love tonight
I don't wanna lose your love tonight
I just wanna use your love tonight
I don't wanna lose your love tonight
After the Pats had finally taken the lead in the 4th quarter of the divisional round against Baltimore, right before a pivotal 4th down on defense, you could here everyone in Gillette Stadium, all 69,000 strong, belting the chorus at the top of their lungs on the NBC broadcast.
By Eli Lederman
We’ll never understand it. We’re never going to be able to explain Pete Carroll’s play call at the end of last night’s Super Bowl. It was a play call that turned Carroll into the goat, made Malcolm Butler a New England folk hero, and it helped the Patriots win the Super Bowl. But it wasn’t just that play that won it for them. The Patriots won that game on Dont’a Hightower stopping Marshawn Lynch inches shy of the goal line in the final minute, on Rob Ninkovich getting a clutch 3rd down sack that got the Patriots the ball back and started their 4th quarter comeback, on Julian Edelman gutting through a hip injury, extending drives late in the game, and this game was won on the shoulders of Tom Brady, who pulled off the greatest 4th quarter comeback in Super Bowl history. They won this game playing the same type of gutsy football they played all season long. That comeback was classic Brady, operating in his element, and at his best.
Over the past 14 years, we’ve seen Tom Brady go from being just another 6th round draft pick, to becoming one of the most accomplished players in NFL history. The pretty boy from San Mateo, California somehow became the gritty quarterback that New England had always craved. In that time, no one in the NFL has won more games, no one has played in, or won as many Super Bowls, and no one has evolved more than he has.
Throughout his storied career, we’ve seen 5 different iterations of Tom Brady, here’s the breakdown:
Version #1 (2001- early-2003)
The Age of Innocence
The first iteration of Tom Brady is the least sexy of them all. He was more of a game manager at that point, but was still blessed with the instinct and skill that has never left his game. He didn’t wow you with his stats, or with his arm strength, but he was a winner, and he was an integral part of the Patriots first Super Bowl victory.
Version #2 (mid-2003-2006)
The Reche Caldwell Era
That’s really the best way to describe it. At this point, Brady was beginning to blossom into a star quarterback, and he was doing it with a historically weak receiving core. His top two receivers at the time were Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney… lets just say he wasn’t playing with Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Dallas Clark…Whoops, sorry Peyton. He abandoned that game manager title, and began to win games by ruthlessly controlling them rather than just relying on his teams’ running game and defense. This Tom Brady won 2 Super Bowls, and became one of the NFL’s biggest stars.
Version #3 (2007-2009)
The Close But No Cigar Era
This was Brady’s prime. That is not to say that he hasn’t been in his prime for the last 10 years or so, but this was Tom Brady at his statistical best. He tore defenses apart. He just couldn’t be stopped. This period saw Tom have his best season; the 2007, 18-1 season was by far his best, breaking Peyton Manning’s single-season touchdown record, and winning an MVP award. Somehow this era didn’t see Brady and the Patriots win a Super Bowl, partially due to Brady missing the entire 2008 season with a torn ACL.
Version #4 (2010- week 4 2014)
The “Everyone in New England is hoping Brady doesn’t get fed up with the lack of support and leaves” Era
This was a seasoned Tom Brady. He had a decade of experience under his belt, and he made up for his slightly declining skill set with his veteran quarterback savvy. He won another MVP award, played in 3 conference championship games, but still couldn’t bring in that 4th Super Bowl title. This was the most heartbreaking Tom Brady. Surrounded by weak supporting casts, Patriots fans everywhere got scared as we thought we were seeing the end of our star’s prime being wasted.
That’s the first 13 years of Tom Brady’s career in a nutshell.
The 5th iteration of Tom Brady is the one that we saw this season, and will hopefully continue to see for at least another year or two. This version is the one that came alive after the blowout in Kansas City, that put all of the doubters back in their place when he steamrolled through the AFC to another 1-seed, and this is the same version of Tom Brady who persevered through the last two weeks, as rumors swirled about deflated footballs, and brushed all of that off to win himself another Super Bowl. This Tom Brady took the good things from the first 4 versions of himself, threw in a little bit of attitude, and became an even better version of himself. And after watching him for an entire season, fist-pumping, f-bomb dropping, third down scrambling, sideline stomping Tom Brady, or version #5 Tom Brady, is my favorite Tom Brady.
And last night that Tom Brady delivered. The way that game played out was the only way it could’ve for this year’s Patriots, and for this year’s Tom Brady. Down 10 points in the 4th quarter, Tom brought the team back in front with 2 masterful drives; drives that were extended by big 3rd down conversions and gutsy plays, both of which were standard with this year’s team. And to top it off in the most 2014-2015 Patriots way possible, the game was ended on a goal line interception by a cornerback that most Patriots fans didn’t know of prior to that moment.
There was something special about watching Tom Brady this season. You could tell he wanted it, more than ever before. And the fans wanted it for him too, at least one last time. You could feel it during the Cincinnati game, when Gillette Stadium erupted in a “Brady” chant. And you felt it again when he left to a standing ovation in the AFC title game, Patriots fans unsure of when we might see Tom Brady, our guy, again, playing in another conference championship on our own turf. And you felt it a million times in between. Maybe it was that uncertainty that made this season so special. As a fan base, we felt our dynasty slipping away from us after the loss in Kansas City, and once we got it back, we weren’t going to let go, not yet. That’s why the corny 80’s song Your Love by the Outfield became our playoff anthem. Let’s ignore the fact that the song is actually about cheating (Oy!), and look at the chorus…
I don't wanna lose your love tonight
I just wanna use your love tonight
I don't wanna lose your love tonight
I just wanna use your love tonight
I don't wanna lose your love tonight
After the Pats had finally taken the lead in the 4th quarter of the divisional round against Baltimore, right before a pivotal 4th down on defense, you could here everyone in Gillette Stadium, all 69,000 strong, belting the chorus at the top of their lungs on the NBC broadcast.
And they really didn’t want to lose the love that night, or last night for that matter. This season was so special, to the organization, to the players, and to us, the fans, there was only one way we wanted it to end. And fortunately for us, and for Tom Brady, it ended just as we had hoped.
PS: Have we heard any sort of report that Tom Brady hit on Chris Collinsworth’s wife at some point prior to the game? Collinsworth could not have bashed Tom Brady more relentlessly throughout the entirety of the game. Even my Mom, a Collinsworth fan who attended his alma mater, the University of Florida, was sick of him by the end of it. It all balanced out in the end when a Super Bowl ring-less Collinsworth embarrassed himself by telling Tom Brady he knows what it takes to succeed, with Brady proceeding to give him the same condescending nod that you receive when someone is just trying to get out of the conversation by agreeing with you. But seriously, I was pretty sure the announcing crew was supposed to remain objective during the game. Collinsworth sounded devastated at the end of the game.
PS: Have we heard any sort of report that Tom Brady hit on Chris Collinsworth’s wife at some point prior to the game? Collinsworth could not have bashed Tom Brady more relentlessly throughout the entirety of the game. Even my Mom, a Collinsworth fan who attended his alma mater, the University of Florida, was sick of him by the end of it. It all balanced out in the end when a Super Bowl ring-less Collinsworth embarrassed himself by telling Tom Brady he knows what it takes to succeed, with Brady proceeding to give him the same condescending nod that you receive when someone is just trying to get out of the conversation by agreeing with you. But seriously, I was pretty sure the announcing crew was supposed to remain objective during the game. Collinsworth sounded devastated at the end of the game.
1/21/15
By Eli Lederman
On Sunday night, in the midst of all the Conference Championship craziness, the Denver Broncos sneakily hired a coach who is probably worse than the one they just fired. That’s not to say that Gary Kubiak is replacing a total failure, his predecessor, John Fox, does own a 126-96 career record, but the 38 wins that Peyton Manning delivered over the past 3 years certainly helped him there. Instead of bringing in another coach that Denver czar John Elway wouldn’t get along with, Elway brought in his old backup to run the team on the field. During his time with the Houston Texans, Kubiak turned the franchise around, and brought the team more success than it had seen in its short existence. However, the Kubiak era in Houston was marred at end by the team’s mystifying spiral from atop the AFC South to the league’s worst record and landing the #1 pick. The drop off saw Matt Schaub suddenly forget how to throw, and Kubiak lose his job. Now one year later, after serving as the offensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens, Gary Kubiak is back in as a head coach. And not even a week or so later, he will already have a huge decision to make, what to do about Peyton Manning?
After yet another poor showing in the playoffs, this time with Peyton looking despondent and cooked, Manning’s future is being seriously questioned, admittedly even by himself. And unlike other times in the past, I think there is a very real possibility that Peyton does retire. He is coming off of the first season in which he showed real, visible signs of his game declining, and after 3 surgeries on his neck, he is just one bad hit away from the incurring permanent injury to his neck. If there were ever a time for him to retire, it would be now. He could still go out on top, with grace, unlike some of our other accomplished quarterbacks…Yes, you Brett Favre.
But for arguments sake, let’s assume that he does decide to come back. That puts Kubiak in quite the spot. It’s just as real a possibility that Peyton decides to come back next season. He was a top 10 quarterback this year and he can certainly still help a team win games. The big question is if that team is going to be the Denver Broncos. If Gary Kubiak wants to stick around in Denver long term, he needs to cut Peyton Manning.
The problem with this Denver team as currently constituted is that it was built in a swoon of win-now desperation, and their salary cap situation reflects that. The Broncos roster is riddled with big names with big salaries who were past their primes before they even arrived in Denver. Their championship window closed last year, and now they are forced to deal with the terrors of old players and back-loaded contracts.
If Peyton Manning remains on the Broncos’ roster next season, he will account for $21.5 million against their cap. This wouldn’t really be an issue if the Broncos didn’t have 7 players who have been integral to their success entering free agency this offseason. WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Julius Thomas, DT Terrance Knighton, OL Mitch Unrein, CB Raheem Moore, and LB’s Nate Irving, and Brandon Marshall will all be coming off the books, and the Broncos will have to find some way to bring at least 5 of them back with the $27 million (not including salaries leaving the team) that remains in cap space on the Peyton Manning Broncos. Denver’s main priority should be to retain the Thomas’ Demaryius and Julius. This past season, the Thom-eye (my made up plural for the Thomas’, it’ll catch on), Peyton’s top 2 targets, amassed a combined 176 receptions, 2,407 yards receiving, and 23 receiving TD’s. Suffice it to say, they are vital to this Denver team. The Broncos will probably franchise tag Demaryius Thomas instead of dealing with trying to negotiate with him. That will leave the team with about $18-20 million to spend on the rest of the team, with probably $12-15 million of the remaining money going to Julius Thomas. $5 million dollars to re-sign 3-5 guys who will all be looking for pay increases from their last contracts? That will be tough. And with the team already in decline, the Broncos are also going to want to improve the team. If Gary Kubiak cuts Peyton Manning, that $5 million turns into something closer to $26 million, giving the team far more spending flexibility. It’s hard to cut ties with a legend, but does it makes sense to jeopardize your future with a 38-year old quarterback who may or may not stay healthy?
So in this perfect world where the Broncos cut Manning and the Patriots are playing with well-inflated footballs, the Broncos still have the best receiving core in the league, but no quarterback. So what options do Kubiak and the Peyton-less Broncos have? They could go with current backup Brock Oswieler, entering his 3rd season, but that’s more of a last resort scenario for them. They could try to trade up in the draft to take Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, but they don’t really have the assets or draft picks necessary to do that. The best option for Denver might be signing Brian Hoyer. Through 11 weeks this season, free agent to be Brian Hoyer was playing well, and looked poised to earn a new contract somewhere in the 3-year/$21 million neighborhood. But from that point on, his game plummeted faster than Vanilla Ice’s acting career (Yes, that happened. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the 1990’s. *Cue classic 90’s fake studio audience applause*), and the dreams of that multi-year contract went down the drain. With his future in Cleveland a little less clear than it was just a few months ago, Hoyer and Denver may be the perfect match for each other. Why would Hoyer pass up playing with C.J. Anderson, Emmanuel Sanders, and the Thom-eye (See? It’s starting to catch on), and return to Cleveland? The contract the Broncos would sign him to would probably be for 1-2 years, worth somewhere between $3-6 million. And although Hoyer looked bad towards the end of this season, we have seen the good side of Hoyer, the one that brought the Browns out to a 6-3 start. Best-case scenario, Hoyer becomes a better version of Alex Smith with the weapons the Broncos have, and the team wins 11-12 games. Otherwise, Denver probably stoops to the level of their fellow AFC West members who always end up around 9-7, and roll the dice that they wont be one of the two AFC West teams to inevitably shoot themselves in the foot in December. I don’t see Hoyer going any worse than 8-8 with those weapons.
Here is your other scenario, where Denver keeps Peyton. The team plays okay for the first 7-8 games, Peyton even looks like his normal self, but you can definitely tell they miss the O-lineman and the guys that they lost on defense. Then once the weather to starts to get a little colder, and the team begins to hit the hard spot of its schedule, things begin to unravel a little bit. Peyton starts to show his age and you can tell there is an injury that is starting to bother him, let’s say something on the lower body. The team limps into the playoffs as a wild card team, but doesn’t have it in them to even compete with one of the division winners, how about Peyton’s former team, the Colts. At this point Peyton calls it quits. Now Denver is left without a quarterback, a weak defense, and a roster that is riddled with big contracts. If I’m a Denver fan, I’m taking that first scenario.
The nice thing about this new situation for Gary Kubiak is that there are a lot of different directions that he can go in, and there are a lot of pieces already on his roster that he can build around. This decision is going to be crucial to his future as the coach of the Denver Broncos; if he blows it, he won’t be around long. He isn’t a good enough coach to withstand a full rebuild, and he certainly isn’t a good enough coach to carry a bad team to a few more wins than they really deserve. I think Gary Kubiak’s future in Denver is almost 100% riding on this Peyton decision, and if he botches it, the Kubiak era in Denver may be over before it even starts.
By Eli Lederman
On Sunday night, in the midst of all the Conference Championship craziness, the Denver Broncos sneakily hired a coach who is probably worse than the one they just fired. That’s not to say that Gary Kubiak is replacing a total failure, his predecessor, John Fox, does own a 126-96 career record, but the 38 wins that Peyton Manning delivered over the past 3 years certainly helped him there. Instead of bringing in another coach that Denver czar John Elway wouldn’t get along with, Elway brought in his old backup to run the team on the field. During his time with the Houston Texans, Kubiak turned the franchise around, and brought the team more success than it had seen in its short existence. However, the Kubiak era in Houston was marred at end by the team’s mystifying spiral from atop the AFC South to the league’s worst record and landing the #1 pick. The drop off saw Matt Schaub suddenly forget how to throw, and Kubiak lose his job. Now one year later, after serving as the offensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens, Gary Kubiak is back in as a head coach. And not even a week or so later, he will already have a huge decision to make, what to do about Peyton Manning?
After yet another poor showing in the playoffs, this time with Peyton looking despondent and cooked, Manning’s future is being seriously questioned, admittedly even by himself. And unlike other times in the past, I think there is a very real possibility that Peyton does retire. He is coming off of the first season in which he showed real, visible signs of his game declining, and after 3 surgeries on his neck, he is just one bad hit away from the incurring permanent injury to his neck. If there were ever a time for him to retire, it would be now. He could still go out on top, with grace, unlike some of our other accomplished quarterbacks…Yes, you Brett Favre.
But for arguments sake, let’s assume that he does decide to come back. That puts Kubiak in quite the spot. It’s just as real a possibility that Peyton decides to come back next season. He was a top 10 quarterback this year and he can certainly still help a team win games. The big question is if that team is going to be the Denver Broncos. If Gary Kubiak wants to stick around in Denver long term, he needs to cut Peyton Manning.
The problem with this Denver team as currently constituted is that it was built in a swoon of win-now desperation, and their salary cap situation reflects that. The Broncos roster is riddled with big names with big salaries who were past their primes before they even arrived in Denver. Their championship window closed last year, and now they are forced to deal with the terrors of old players and back-loaded contracts.
If Peyton Manning remains on the Broncos’ roster next season, he will account for $21.5 million against their cap. This wouldn’t really be an issue if the Broncos didn’t have 7 players who have been integral to their success entering free agency this offseason. WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Julius Thomas, DT Terrance Knighton, OL Mitch Unrein, CB Raheem Moore, and LB’s Nate Irving, and Brandon Marshall will all be coming off the books, and the Broncos will have to find some way to bring at least 5 of them back with the $27 million (not including salaries leaving the team) that remains in cap space on the Peyton Manning Broncos. Denver’s main priority should be to retain the Thomas’ Demaryius and Julius. This past season, the Thom-eye (my made up plural for the Thomas’, it’ll catch on), Peyton’s top 2 targets, amassed a combined 176 receptions, 2,407 yards receiving, and 23 receiving TD’s. Suffice it to say, they are vital to this Denver team. The Broncos will probably franchise tag Demaryius Thomas instead of dealing with trying to negotiate with him. That will leave the team with about $18-20 million to spend on the rest of the team, with probably $12-15 million of the remaining money going to Julius Thomas. $5 million dollars to re-sign 3-5 guys who will all be looking for pay increases from their last contracts? That will be tough. And with the team already in decline, the Broncos are also going to want to improve the team. If Gary Kubiak cuts Peyton Manning, that $5 million turns into something closer to $26 million, giving the team far more spending flexibility. It’s hard to cut ties with a legend, but does it makes sense to jeopardize your future with a 38-year old quarterback who may or may not stay healthy?
So in this perfect world where the Broncos cut Manning and the Patriots are playing with well-inflated footballs, the Broncos still have the best receiving core in the league, but no quarterback. So what options do Kubiak and the Peyton-less Broncos have? They could go with current backup Brock Oswieler, entering his 3rd season, but that’s more of a last resort scenario for them. They could try to trade up in the draft to take Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, but they don’t really have the assets or draft picks necessary to do that. The best option for Denver might be signing Brian Hoyer. Through 11 weeks this season, free agent to be Brian Hoyer was playing well, and looked poised to earn a new contract somewhere in the 3-year/$21 million neighborhood. But from that point on, his game plummeted faster than Vanilla Ice’s acting career (Yes, that happened. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the 1990’s. *Cue classic 90’s fake studio audience applause*), and the dreams of that multi-year contract went down the drain. With his future in Cleveland a little less clear than it was just a few months ago, Hoyer and Denver may be the perfect match for each other. Why would Hoyer pass up playing with C.J. Anderson, Emmanuel Sanders, and the Thom-eye (See? It’s starting to catch on), and return to Cleveland? The contract the Broncos would sign him to would probably be for 1-2 years, worth somewhere between $3-6 million. And although Hoyer looked bad towards the end of this season, we have seen the good side of Hoyer, the one that brought the Browns out to a 6-3 start. Best-case scenario, Hoyer becomes a better version of Alex Smith with the weapons the Broncos have, and the team wins 11-12 games. Otherwise, Denver probably stoops to the level of their fellow AFC West members who always end up around 9-7, and roll the dice that they wont be one of the two AFC West teams to inevitably shoot themselves in the foot in December. I don’t see Hoyer going any worse than 8-8 with those weapons.
Here is your other scenario, where Denver keeps Peyton. The team plays okay for the first 7-8 games, Peyton even looks like his normal self, but you can definitely tell they miss the O-lineman and the guys that they lost on defense. Then once the weather to starts to get a little colder, and the team begins to hit the hard spot of its schedule, things begin to unravel a little bit. Peyton starts to show his age and you can tell there is an injury that is starting to bother him, let’s say something on the lower body. The team limps into the playoffs as a wild card team, but doesn’t have it in them to even compete with one of the division winners, how about Peyton’s former team, the Colts. At this point Peyton calls it quits. Now Denver is left without a quarterback, a weak defense, and a roster that is riddled with big contracts. If I’m a Denver fan, I’m taking that first scenario.
The nice thing about this new situation for Gary Kubiak is that there are a lot of different directions that he can go in, and there are a lot of pieces already on his roster that he can build around. This decision is going to be crucial to his future as the coach of the Denver Broncos; if he blows it, he won’t be around long. He isn’t a good enough coach to withstand a full rebuild, and he certainly isn’t a good enough coach to carry a bad team to a few more wins than they really deserve. I think Gary Kubiak’s future in Denver is almost 100% riding on this Peyton decision, and if he botches it, the Kubiak era in Denver may be over before it even starts.
1/18/15
By Eli Lederman
3:30 PM
NFC Championship
Packers at Seahawks (+7.5)
Green Bay's Blueprint:
The Rodgers Plan
If the Packers are going to win this week, it will be on the back of Aaron Rodgers. Therefore the best thing the Packers can do for Rodgers is to avoid putting pressure on his injured calf. That means a new look for Green Bay-the Pistol formation. Rodgers hadn’t thrown a single pass out of the pistol in 2014 before suffering his calf injury against the Buccaneers in Week 16. Green Bay went to the pistol six times against the Bucs before using it 26 times against the Lions, with 16 of those snaps coming in the second half, after Rodgers’ injury worsened. The pistol is great for the Packers because it takes virtually all of the stress off Rodgers. If he wants to hand the ball off to Eddie Lacy, he doesn’t have to move at all, saving him a minimum of one step on every play. Twenty of the 26 pistol snaps the Packers took against the Lions turned out to be running plays, and they were wildly successful. The Packers produced 107 yards on those 20 runs, an average of 5.4 yards per attempt against one of the best run defenses in recent league history. Their 18 other carries against the Lions produced a total of just 45 yards.
The other benefit the pistol affords the Packers is the ability to create more doubt about their intentions before the snap by how they’re lined up. The Packers are normally a very shotgun-intensive team. It’s very difficult to mask your plan to run the football out of the shotgun, and by staying in the pistol, the Packers can leave the terrifying Seahawks defense guessing until the last moment, a dangerous move when you consider just how fast Rodgers can deliver the football.
Establishing the running game will be imperative to any Green Bay success this week. Even if Rodgers’ condition has improved from last week, which isn’t likely, the Packers offense won’t be able to operate efficiently without Eddie Lacy carrying a major load. Aaron Rodgers won’t be able to dissect this Seattle D on one leg like he did to the Cowboys last week. The Seattle secondary is too tight, and their pass rush won’t leave him as much time for his receivers to get open. The weaker…relatively weaker part of the Seahawks defense is its front 4. Opponents this season have had far more success running the ball on the Seahawks than they have throwing the ball, averaging 132 yards per game on the ground, with passer ratings barely above 80.0. Unless the Pack can get Aaron Rodgers on a Jack from Lost level of painkillers, they are going to have to give Eddie Lacy a significant amount of carries.
Contain Marshawn Lynch
Marshawn Lynch is the most physically gifted runner in the NFL. Weighing in at 215 lbs., Lynch has the ability to literally run through defenses. He is also the key to Seattle’s offense. His physical running wears defenses down, sets up the play action pass that Russell Wilson lives off of, and it allows the Seahawks to dominate time of possession, something that could kill the Green Bay offense. The Packers front 4 and its linebacking corps are going to have to come up big in order to contain Marshawn Lynch on Sunday. They are going to have to stick to their 4-3 defense and hope that guys like Clay Matthews and Nick Perry will be able to keep Lynch from breaking off anything big. If they can’t contain Lynch, Aaron Rodgers is going to spend a lot of time on the sidelines, and the Packers are going to struggle to keep up with the Seahawks.
Seattle’s Blueprint:
Remain Two-Dimensional
The Seahawks are the classic defensive/ground and pound NFL team, kind of like the Rex Ryan Jets, but successful. They abuse teams defensively, and then run all over them when they get the ball. Seattle’s game hasn’t really ever been anything to write home about, especially after the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson’s only legitimate target, Percy Harvin, to the Jets for a bag of footballs and a lightly used Subway gift card. (That’s 2 totally uncalled for shots at the Jets in 1 paragraph, bet you I can fit one more in by the end of this article) During the Seahawks turn around that began in week 12, the offense became two-dimensional, with Wilson finally getting on the same page with his receivers. In that time, the Seahawks have gone 7-0, with much of the success being credited to the team’s newfound aptitude for throwing the ball. Seattle’s future success will continue to depend on the passing game as well. While this team is certainly capable of going far, maybe even winning the Super Bowl for the second straight year, with its defense and running game, they will need their passing game to, at the very least, offset their running game and to keep defenses on their toes. This week, the Packers first priority will be to stop the run, something they’ve had success doing in the past. This game will likely fall into the hands of Russell Wilson to lead this team past Green Bay, and as long as he doesn’t “Geno Smith” it up too badly, I think the Seahawks should be good.
(See! Told you I could do it. That last one was pretty tasteless too, wasn’t it? On a totally unrelated note, I just lost 20% of my readership)
Pressure Aaron Rodgers
Last week, we saw Aaron Rodgers carve up the Dallas Cowboys on one leg. As bad as this calf injury of his sounded, it really didn’t stop him from making his throws and hitting his receivers. The Cowboys gave Rodgers all the time in the world, and it was eventually what did them in. The problem for Green Bay this week is that they aren’t going up against the Dallas pass rush again. Averaging 2.4 sacks per game and 3.6 hurries per game, the Seattle defense has been all over opposing quarterbacks this season. They are going to have to bring the pressure regularly this Sunday in order to disrupt this Green Bay offense. The running aspect of Rodgers’ game that we talked about before has been eliminated by this injury, which will make it even harder for him to evade the Seahawks pass rush. If the Seahawks can come at Aaron Rodgers hard and often, it will be a long day for the Packers.
Prediction: Seahawks (+7.5) over Packers
First of all, that’s a disrespectful line. Green Bay can run and throw with the best of them. That’s too many points for an elite offense on the road. Vegas might as well fly “NOBODY BELIEVES IN YOU, GREEN BAY!” banners over CenturyLink Field. Second, Seattle’s admittedly splendid defense hasn’t played a good-to-great quarterback SINCE WEEK SIX. Seems relevant. Third, there’s a decent chance that we’re witnessing Rodgers’ “By the time this season is over, you’ll be wondering if I’m the best ever” season. It’s in play. If anyone can beat Seattle in Seattle, it’s him … but I think he falls juuuuuuuuuuuuuuust short. With the weather forecast in Seattle looking like light rain with some wind, I don’t really expect either team to pull away until late in the game. The weather will also force the teams to run the ball more than they may have planned to, something that will definitely benefit the Seahawks. In the end, this game comes down to Aaron Rodgers’ health; if his calf doesn’t hold him back and the Packers can keep him clean, he has the opportunity to avenge his week 1 blow out loss in Seattle with a great performance. But if the calf is keeping him from making big plays, and the Seattle D can get in on him, the Packers will have a tough time winning. I see the Packers having the ball at the end of the game with a chance to score for the win, but Aaron Rodgers just not quite having it in him to get his team down the field to win it.
Seahawks 24, Packers 23 (Packers cover the spread)
6:30 PM
AFC Championship
Colts at Patriots (+7)
Indianapolis' Blueprint:
Figure Out How To Run The Football
Indianapolis hasn’t been able run the football all year long. After losing Ahmad Bradshaw in their last meeting with the Patriots in week 11, the Colts were left with the lifeless Trent Richardson, the constantly hurt Vick Ballard, and the fumble machine himself, Boom Herron. That remaining trio of running backs did very little to help out their star quarterback Andrew Luck, finishing in the bottom 3rd of the NFL in rushing yards and yards per carry. Somehow, this lack of running ability hasn’t hampered the Colts too much, as they have made their way to the AFC Championship. I guess that’s a testament to how good Andrew Luck really is. But if the Colts want to advance past the AFC Championship they are going to have to run the ball, even if it’s just to keep the New England defense on its toes. The Colts don’t have to run all over the Patriots, Andrew Luck is talented enough to carry the offense, but he needs some support. If Andrew Luck is forced to throw the ball 50+ times on Sunday, the Colts will be in trouble. The New England secondary is good enough as it is, but if they also know you’re going to throw, you’re toast. The Colts are going to have to go 65%-35% Pass/Run if they are going to stand a chance in this game. The running really doesn’t need to be all that effective; if Boom Herron can average a few yards per carry, and hold onto the football, that will be enough to keep the Patriots on their toes, and it will set Andrew Luck up to pass the ball.
Limit Gronk!
Aside from the additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the biggest difference between this year’s Patriots team, and last year’s, is Rob Gronkowski. After tearing his ACL last year, Gronk has comeback and become the difference maker for the Patriots. The man is a matchup nightmare with his rare combo of size and speed, and historically, he has terrorized the Colts. In his 4 career games against Indy, Gronk has had 297 receiving yards and 5 TD’s on 17 receptions. Just like every other team in the league, the Colts can’t stop Gronk. And there is nothing that the Colts could have figured out during their preparation this week that will help them stop Gronk, but that’s not necessarily what they have to do. If the Colts can limit Gronk, something that is far easier said than done, they will be taking away New England’s best offensive threat. How to limit Gronk? It’s not an easy task. He’s a 6’7 beast whose 40-yard dash time is just a hair slower than most wide receivers. The Colts will likely jam him at the line, and then double team him, probably with a 3rd man shadowing him just in case. And even that might not do it. It’s going to take a lot to contain Rob Gronkowski, but if the Colts can, it will certainly take a major burden off the rest of their defense.
New England's Blueprint
Get to Luck
Andrew Luck can dissect a defense if you give him the time to do it. We saw him do it in the first two rounds against teams that brought zero pressure. You just can’t give him the time to hit his receivers; he’ll burn you if you do. The key for the Patriots this week will be getting in on Luck, and forcing him into making some poor decisions. The problem is that the Pats haven’t really been doing that recently. Since losing Chandler Jones around the midway point of the season, the Patriots pass rush has been non-existent. Last week against the Ravens, New England mustered just one sack, which was eventually called back on a defensive holding penalty. That is going to have to change this week for the Patriots to be able to hold off Andrew Luck. I would expect to see some extra middle linebacker blitzes from Jamie Collins and Akeem Ayers, and the usual pressure the team gets from Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Added pressure will force Luck into making the ill-advised throws he tends to make when he doesn’t have time in the pocket. The Patriots are going to come out and look to rattle the young quarterback on the road, and the best way to do that is by pressuring him early.
Run The Ball
When the 2 teams met back in week 11, the Patriots ran all over the Colts. Jonas Gray, who was probably a good alarm clock away from remaining a starter, broke out for 246 yards and 4 TD’s. This was part of a continuing trend of teams running through the Colts, resulting in Indianapolis finishing in the bottom half of the league in stopping the run. For whatever reason, the Bengals and the Broncos, Indy’s last 2 opponents, did exploit this weakness with their breakout running backs. With the weather looking bad in Foxboro on Sunday, it’s essential for the Patriots to once again establish a running game that they can rely on. Though Tom Brady has never really seemed to get fazed throwing the ball in bad weather, it certainly would take the burden off of him and the Patriots receivers if the team could get the running game going. Look for the Patriots to run the ball early and often.
Prediction: Patriots (+7) over Colts
This spread is a little unfair as well. Let me remind you, I’ve picked against the Colts in each of their playoff matchups, and they have proven me wrong twice. In both games they have come out strong and beaten 2 good teams. But once again, I’m picking against them. I’m really worried about Andrew Luck, who plays his home games in a dome, playing in the rain in Foxboro. He has little experience in bad conditions, and I don’t think he will be able to carry his team the way they’ll need him to in that type of weather. The Patriots on the other hand have Tom Brady whose stats in fact spike when there is precipitation. Couple that with the fact that New England has a running game to turn to, and New England seems pretty set, especially in the unpredictable weather.
Patriots 38, Colts 27
By Eli Lederman
3:30 PM
NFC Championship
Packers at Seahawks (+7.5)
Green Bay's Blueprint:
The Rodgers Plan
If the Packers are going to win this week, it will be on the back of Aaron Rodgers. Therefore the best thing the Packers can do for Rodgers is to avoid putting pressure on his injured calf. That means a new look for Green Bay-the Pistol formation. Rodgers hadn’t thrown a single pass out of the pistol in 2014 before suffering his calf injury against the Buccaneers in Week 16. Green Bay went to the pistol six times against the Bucs before using it 26 times against the Lions, with 16 of those snaps coming in the second half, after Rodgers’ injury worsened. The pistol is great for the Packers because it takes virtually all of the stress off Rodgers. If he wants to hand the ball off to Eddie Lacy, he doesn’t have to move at all, saving him a minimum of one step on every play. Twenty of the 26 pistol snaps the Packers took against the Lions turned out to be running plays, and they were wildly successful. The Packers produced 107 yards on those 20 runs, an average of 5.4 yards per attempt against one of the best run defenses in recent league history. Their 18 other carries against the Lions produced a total of just 45 yards.
The other benefit the pistol affords the Packers is the ability to create more doubt about their intentions before the snap by how they’re lined up. The Packers are normally a very shotgun-intensive team. It’s very difficult to mask your plan to run the football out of the shotgun, and by staying in the pistol, the Packers can leave the terrifying Seahawks defense guessing until the last moment, a dangerous move when you consider just how fast Rodgers can deliver the football.
Establishing the running game will be imperative to any Green Bay success this week. Even if Rodgers’ condition has improved from last week, which isn’t likely, the Packers offense won’t be able to operate efficiently without Eddie Lacy carrying a major load. Aaron Rodgers won’t be able to dissect this Seattle D on one leg like he did to the Cowboys last week. The Seattle secondary is too tight, and their pass rush won’t leave him as much time for his receivers to get open. The weaker…relatively weaker part of the Seahawks defense is its front 4. Opponents this season have had far more success running the ball on the Seahawks than they have throwing the ball, averaging 132 yards per game on the ground, with passer ratings barely above 80.0. Unless the Pack can get Aaron Rodgers on a Jack from Lost level of painkillers, they are going to have to give Eddie Lacy a significant amount of carries.
Contain Marshawn Lynch
Marshawn Lynch is the most physically gifted runner in the NFL. Weighing in at 215 lbs., Lynch has the ability to literally run through defenses. He is also the key to Seattle’s offense. His physical running wears defenses down, sets up the play action pass that Russell Wilson lives off of, and it allows the Seahawks to dominate time of possession, something that could kill the Green Bay offense. The Packers front 4 and its linebacking corps are going to have to come up big in order to contain Marshawn Lynch on Sunday. They are going to have to stick to their 4-3 defense and hope that guys like Clay Matthews and Nick Perry will be able to keep Lynch from breaking off anything big. If they can’t contain Lynch, Aaron Rodgers is going to spend a lot of time on the sidelines, and the Packers are going to struggle to keep up with the Seahawks.
Seattle’s Blueprint:
Remain Two-Dimensional
The Seahawks are the classic defensive/ground and pound NFL team, kind of like the Rex Ryan Jets, but successful. They abuse teams defensively, and then run all over them when they get the ball. Seattle’s game hasn’t really ever been anything to write home about, especially after the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson’s only legitimate target, Percy Harvin, to the Jets for a bag of footballs and a lightly used Subway gift card. (That’s 2 totally uncalled for shots at the Jets in 1 paragraph, bet you I can fit one more in by the end of this article) During the Seahawks turn around that began in week 12, the offense became two-dimensional, with Wilson finally getting on the same page with his receivers. In that time, the Seahawks have gone 7-0, with much of the success being credited to the team’s newfound aptitude for throwing the ball. Seattle’s future success will continue to depend on the passing game as well. While this team is certainly capable of going far, maybe even winning the Super Bowl for the second straight year, with its defense and running game, they will need their passing game to, at the very least, offset their running game and to keep defenses on their toes. This week, the Packers first priority will be to stop the run, something they’ve had success doing in the past. This game will likely fall into the hands of Russell Wilson to lead this team past Green Bay, and as long as he doesn’t “Geno Smith” it up too badly, I think the Seahawks should be good.
(See! Told you I could do it. That last one was pretty tasteless too, wasn’t it? On a totally unrelated note, I just lost 20% of my readership)
Pressure Aaron Rodgers
Last week, we saw Aaron Rodgers carve up the Dallas Cowboys on one leg. As bad as this calf injury of his sounded, it really didn’t stop him from making his throws and hitting his receivers. The Cowboys gave Rodgers all the time in the world, and it was eventually what did them in. The problem for Green Bay this week is that they aren’t going up against the Dallas pass rush again. Averaging 2.4 sacks per game and 3.6 hurries per game, the Seattle defense has been all over opposing quarterbacks this season. They are going to have to bring the pressure regularly this Sunday in order to disrupt this Green Bay offense. The running aspect of Rodgers’ game that we talked about before has been eliminated by this injury, which will make it even harder for him to evade the Seahawks pass rush. If the Seahawks can come at Aaron Rodgers hard and often, it will be a long day for the Packers.
Prediction: Seahawks (+7.5) over Packers
First of all, that’s a disrespectful line. Green Bay can run and throw with the best of them. That’s too many points for an elite offense on the road. Vegas might as well fly “NOBODY BELIEVES IN YOU, GREEN BAY!” banners over CenturyLink Field. Second, Seattle’s admittedly splendid defense hasn’t played a good-to-great quarterback SINCE WEEK SIX. Seems relevant. Third, there’s a decent chance that we’re witnessing Rodgers’ “By the time this season is over, you’ll be wondering if I’m the best ever” season. It’s in play. If anyone can beat Seattle in Seattle, it’s him … but I think he falls juuuuuuuuuuuuuuust short. With the weather forecast in Seattle looking like light rain with some wind, I don’t really expect either team to pull away until late in the game. The weather will also force the teams to run the ball more than they may have planned to, something that will definitely benefit the Seahawks. In the end, this game comes down to Aaron Rodgers’ health; if his calf doesn’t hold him back and the Packers can keep him clean, he has the opportunity to avenge his week 1 blow out loss in Seattle with a great performance. But if the calf is keeping him from making big plays, and the Seattle D can get in on him, the Packers will have a tough time winning. I see the Packers having the ball at the end of the game with a chance to score for the win, but Aaron Rodgers just not quite having it in him to get his team down the field to win it.
Seahawks 24, Packers 23 (Packers cover the spread)
6:30 PM
AFC Championship
Colts at Patriots (+7)
Indianapolis' Blueprint:
Figure Out How To Run The Football
Indianapolis hasn’t been able run the football all year long. After losing Ahmad Bradshaw in their last meeting with the Patriots in week 11, the Colts were left with the lifeless Trent Richardson, the constantly hurt Vick Ballard, and the fumble machine himself, Boom Herron. That remaining trio of running backs did very little to help out their star quarterback Andrew Luck, finishing in the bottom 3rd of the NFL in rushing yards and yards per carry. Somehow, this lack of running ability hasn’t hampered the Colts too much, as they have made their way to the AFC Championship. I guess that’s a testament to how good Andrew Luck really is. But if the Colts want to advance past the AFC Championship they are going to have to run the ball, even if it’s just to keep the New England defense on its toes. The Colts don’t have to run all over the Patriots, Andrew Luck is talented enough to carry the offense, but he needs some support. If Andrew Luck is forced to throw the ball 50+ times on Sunday, the Colts will be in trouble. The New England secondary is good enough as it is, but if they also know you’re going to throw, you’re toast. The Colts are going to have to go 65%-35% Pass/Run if they are going to stand a chance in this game. The running really doesn’t need to be all that effective; if Boom Herron can average a few yards per carry, and hold onto the football, that will be enough to keep the Patriots on their toes, and it will set Andrew Luck up to pass the ball.
Limit Gronk!
Aside from the additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the biggest difference between this year’s Patriots team, and last year’s, is Rob Gronkowski. After tearing his ACL last year, Gronk has comeback and become the difference maker for the Patriots. The man is a matchup nightmare with his rare combo of size and speed, and historically, he has terrorized the Colts. In his 4 career games against Indy, Gronk has had 297 receiving yards and 5 TD’s on 17 receptions. Just like every other team in the league, the Colts can’t stop Gronk. And there is nothing that the Colts could have figured out during their preparation this week that will help them stop Gronk, but that’s not necessarily what they have to do. If the Colts can limit Gronk, something that is far easier said than done, they will be taking away New England’s best offensive threat. How to limit Gronk? It’s not an easy task. He’s a 6’7 beast whose 40-yard dash time is just a hair slower than most wide receivers. The Colts will likely jam him at the line, and then double team him, probably with a 3rd man shadowing him just in case. And even that might not do it. It’s going to take a lot to contain Rob Gronkowski, but if the Colts can, it will certainly take a major burden off the rest of their defense.
New England's Blueprint
Get to Luck
Andrew Luck can dissect a defense if you give him the time to do it. We saw him do it in the first two rounds against teams that brought zero pressure. You just can’t give him the time to hit his receivers; he’ll burn you if you do. The key for the Patriots this week will be getting in on Luck, and forcing him into making some poor decisions. The problem is that the Pats haven’t really been doing that recently. Since losing Chandler Jones around the midway point of the season, the Patriots pass rush has been non-existent. Last week against the Ravens, New England mustered just one sack, which was eventually called back on a defensive holding penalty. That is going to have to change this week for the Patriots to be able to hold off Andrew Luck. I would expect to see some extra middle linebacker blitzes from Jamie Collins and Akeem Ayers, and the usual pressure the team gets from Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Added pressure will force Luck into making the ill-advised throws he tends to make when he doesn’t have time in the pocket. The Patriots are going to come out and look to rattle the young quarterback on the road, and the best way to do that is by pressuring him early.
Run The Ball
When the 2 teams met back in week 11, the Patriots ran all over the Colts. Jonas Gray, who was probably a good alarm clock away from remaining a starter, broke out for 246 yards and 4 TD’s. This was part of a continuing trend of teams running through the Colts, resulting in Indianapolis finishing in the bottom half of the league in stopping the run. For whatever reason, the Bengals and the Broncos, Indy’s last 2 opponents, did exploit this weakness with their breakout running backs. With the weather looking bad in Foxboro on Sunday, it’s essential for the Patriots to once again establish a running game that they can rely on. Though Tom Brady has never really seemed to get fazed throwing the ball in bad weather, it certainly would take the burden off of him and the Patriots receivers if the team could get the running game going. Look for the Patriots to run the ball early and often.
Prediction: Patriots (+7) over Colts
This spread is a little unfair as well. Let me remind you, I’ve picked against the Colts in each of their playoff matchups, and they have proven me wrong twice. In both games they have come out strong and beaten 2 good teams. But once again, I’m picking against them. I’m really worried about Andrew Luck, who plays his home games in a dome, playing in the rain in Foxboro. He has little experience in bad conditions, and I don’t think he will be able to carry his team the way they’ll need him to in that type of weather. The Patriots on the other hand have Tom Brady whose stats in fact spike when there is precipitation. Couple that with the fact that New England has a running game to turn to, and New England seems pretty set, especially in the unpredictable weather.
Patriots 38, Colts 27
1/10/14
By Eli Lederman
Last weekend was a really ugly weekend of NFL playoff football. Starting with the Arizona/Carolina game on Saturday afternoon, where neither team really seemed to want to win, so much so that went so far as to kick just one punt over 32 yards. It was equally as painful watching the Steelers flounder without running back Le’Veon Bell as they gave away every single chance the Ravens gave them to get back into the game. The wretched weekend was concluded with an entertaining, but overall horrid game between the Cowboys and Lions, which was highlighted by 3 or 4 blatantly awful officiating decisions that absolutely swung the game. So with weekend’s horrible football in our rearview mirror, here’s to another weekend of playoff football.
Full disclosure: I was a halfway decent performance from Ryan Lindley, and a well officiated game in Dallas away from going 0-4 with my picks last week, so take the following 1,629 words with a grain of salt. Or a thousand…
Saturday
4:30 PM
Patriots (+7) Over Ravens
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Ravens: Joe Flacco. The man is a playoff machine. During the regular season, Flacco is a slightly above average quarterback, but every year come January, he seems to have something extra in the tank. In the playoffs, his winning percentage jumps .99, his touchdown to turnover ratio is greatly improved, and he wins games. Flacco’s record of 10-4, highlighted by his 4-0 Super Bowl run just 2 years ago, has earned him the label of playoff quarterback. Flacco has also beaten the Patriots in the playoffs twice since joining the league. The Ravens also have John Harbaugh, one of the few coaches who actually seems to have the Patriots figured out. He’s always known how to disrupt Tom Brady and the Pats offense by dominating possession and bringing a heavy pass rush. Dominating time of possession may be tough for the Ravens to pull of as they are still without running back Ray Rice, and are forced to start back up Justin Forsett, who unlike all of the league’s good running backs has not committed a crime. What the Ravens do have is a strong pass rush, something that can give the Pats big problems. With Haloti Ngata returning last week from being grounded for taking Adderall the night before his SAT’s, the fierce Ravens front four, which includes Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs, have a combined 15 Pro Bowl appearances. If the Ravens can bring pressure up the middle, they will be able to disrupt Tom Brady and the potent Patriots offense.
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Patriots: This is not the same Patriots team that the Ravens have given fits to in the past. For the two Patriots VS Ravens playoff games played since Pats star tight end Rob Gronkowski entered in the league, Gronk has only played a total of one half. In the 2012 AFC Championship game, Gronk was injured early on by Bernard eff-ing Pollard-yes the same guy who tore Tom Brady’s ACL and has single handedly cost the Patriots at least one Super Bowl-Gronk was already hurt for the 2013 championship game. This year, for the first time since the 2011 season, Gronk has played all 16 games and looks poised to give the weak Ravens secondary problems. This also isn’t the same Patriots secondary that Joe Flacco has been able to pick apart in the past. Long gone are the days of Julian Edelman, Tom Brady’s current #1 target, listlessly playing cornerback. The Patriots have revamped their secondary since their last meeting with the Ravens with the additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. With that powerhouse overseeing the secondary, the Ravens top receivers-Torrey and Steve Smith-may struggle to rack up the big plays that they usually rely on, leaving it to other receivers like Jacoby Jones and Kamar Aiken to step up and make big plays. This game is also in Foxboro, a place the Patriots absolutely own. Prior to week 17, when the Patriots laid down and let the Bills first stringers play a relatively competitive game with the Pats backups, the Patriots had won 34 consecutive home games against AFC opponents. Their last loss at home prior to that had been in week two of the 2012 season against the Arizona Cardinals. The Patriots are the better team in this matchup, and as long as they execute, they should be able to pull it out.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Ravens, 23
8:15 PM
Seahawks (+11) Over Panthers
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Panthers: There’s no use in me wasting my time, or yours, pulling out some BS sabermetric to try and convince you that the Panthers are going to win this game. The Panthers don’t really have a lot going for them. They are a 7-win team who are in the Divisional Round only because they got to play the C̶a̶r̶s̶o̶n̶ P̶a̶l̶m̶e̶r̶ D̶r̶e̶w̶ S̶t̶a̶n̶t̶o̶n̶ Ryan Lindley led Arizona Cardinals. Now they have to travel to the Pacific Northwest to play in the toughest road stadium in the league, against the defending champs, who have won 6 straight games. The one thing the Panthers sort of have going for them is their relative success against the Seahawks as of late. The two teams have played each other in each of the last 3 seasons, and though the Panthers have not beaten Seattle in any of the 3 matchups, they have shown incredible fight and ability to stay in games against the defending champs, most notably this past November when the Seahawks had to rally to beat Carolina 13-9. The Panthers strong defense is what really gives them a chance in this game. In those 3 recent matchups, the Panthers D has held the Seahawks to 16 points or fewer, not allowing a passing touchdown in any of the games. If the Panthers defense can contain Marshawn Lynch and get to Russell Wilson, they will be able to stay in this game. It would also help them if Cam Newton could stop throwing off his back foot and figure out how to hit an open receiver.
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Seahawks: Alright, alright, take a 5 minute break to laugh out that last paragraph…you good? Look, if the Panthers can pull all of that off, fine, maybe they’ll still be in the game early in the 4th quarter. But realistically, it won’t be that close. Last week, the Panthers struggled to put away an overwhelmingly weak Cardinals team who would have been better off being quarterbacked by an injured, current day Troy Aikman, annoying voice, and obvious analysis and all. If the Panthers give the Seahawks that many opportunities this week, it’s going to be a quick and easy win for Seattle. Seattle is too good of a team to be given opportunity after opportunity, at some point, they will capitalize on the great field position they will inevitably get after a Cam Newton turnover or another brutal Brad Nortman punt. With Seattle’s dominant D firing on all cylinders, and the offense seemingly worked out for now, the Seahawks shouldn’t have any trouble dispatching this anemic Panthers squad.
Prediction: Seahawks 30, Panthers 9
Sunday
1:05 PM
Cowboys (-5.5) Over Packers
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Packers: Aaron Rodgers has been historically good at Lambeau field over the last two seasons. Going to back to last season, Rodgers has thrown over 400 passes without throwing an interception at home, throwing 38 touchdowns in the process. This run has cemented him as an elite quarterback, and has given his team the #2 seed in this years playoffs. Rodgers’ dominance at Lambeau has also resulted in the Packers becoming one of the leagues best home teams, going 8-0 in Green Bay this season. And with this game being played at Lambeau, on the frozen natural grass that very few teams are used to, the Pack will have an advantage over the Cowboys. Throw in Dallas’ weak secondary that will surely be picked apart by Rodgers if he’s given the chance, and it seems like this is the Packers dream matchup. If they can establish their running game with Eddie Lacy, and bring a heavy pass rush in through the middle on Tony Romo, the Packers can defend their home field.
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Cowboys: Going right up against Green Bay’s 8-0 home record, is the 8-0 road record of the Dallas Cowboys. Romo and the Cowboys have been just as dominant on the road as the Packers have been at home, earning wins in Seattle and Philadelphia. The X-factor for Dallas will be its offensive line, and its running game. If the O-line can play at an all-pro level like it has all season, the Cowboys have a real shot. The last thing the Packers want is for DeMarco Murray to get large holes to run through, and for Tony Romo to have plenty of time to find his receivers. The big question that will swing this game one way or the other is Aaron Rodgers’ torn calf muscle. As the week has progressed, his calf has gone from good, to fine, to definitely a little injured, to now being slightly torn. The Packers team doctor came out on Thursday and told us that he would definitely not be at 100% for the game. So will we see a limited Aaron Rodgers, or the Aaron Rodgers who came out from the locker room a few weeks ago, a la Willis Reed, and brought his team back to win? I have a hard time trusting anyone playing in the brutal cold of Green Bay with a muscle injury, even if it is Aaron Rodgers. He will likely be extremely limited, even if he doesn’t tear the muscle further, which will be a challenge against the pesky Dallas pass rush. As classic Cowboys as it would be for them to lose this game after the destiny gods handed them that game last week, I have a lot of faith in the Dallas offense, and some serious doubts about Aaron Rodgers playing injured in the cold.
Prediction Cowboys 27, Packers, 24
4:40 PM
Broncos (+7) Over Colts
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Colts: Once again, it’s all about quarterback play. After I predicted another subpar playoff performance from Andrew Luck last week, he came out a put on and show against the Bengals. He absolutely dominated the Cincinnati defense and put his team back into the conversation after they had fallen out of it with a few bad performances. It’s going to take a big performance from Luck this week to beat Denver without any semblance of a running game, but with the way he has looked, he just might be able to do it. It’s also going to take a strong showing from the Indianapolis defense. In the second half of the season, Peyton Manning has ceased to look like Peyton Manning when he doesn’t have time in the pocket. He has been throwing up ducks left and right that have left DB’s around the league salivating. If Indy wants to win this game, they will have to get to Peyton, and disrupt his rhythm.
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Broncos: This week, things are going to be different for Andrew Luck. Against the Bengals, Luck was able to sit back in the pocket and wait for his speedy receivers to get open as the insignificant Cincy pass rush gave him all the time in the world. Luck won’t have that luxury this week against the Broncos. Denver’s defense is just better than Cincinnati’s is, and Andrew Luck will learn that pretty quickly, if he doesn’t know it already. The Broncos pass rush will be all over him from the start, and if there has been one bad aspect of Luck’s unbelievable first 3 NFL seasons, it has been his struggles against defenses that get to him. When he gets pressured, he tends to blindly throw passes into tight spots, which often gets him into trouble. Making things even tougher on Luck will be the continued lack of production he will get from his running backs. This will allow Denver to leave their linebackers back in coverage, taking passing lanes away from Luck. The Broncos can also run the ball, which is something that we’ve seen teams use to terrorize the Indy defense. If Denver can contain Andrew Luck, and can keep Peyton upright, they should be able to pull this one out.
Prediction: Broncos 31, Colts 24
By Eli Lederman
Last weekend was a really ugly weekend of NFL playoff football. Starting with the Arizona/Carolina game on Saturday afternoon, where neither team really seemed to want to win, so much so that went so far as to kick just one punt over 32 yards. It was equally as painful watching the Steelers flounder without running back Le’Veon Bell as they gave away every single chance the Ravens gave them to get back into the game. The wretched weekend was concluded with an entertaining, but overall horrid game between the Cowboys and Lions, which was highlighted by 3 or 4 blatantly awful officiating decisions that absolutely swung the game. So with weekend’s horrible football in our rearview mirror, here’s to another weekend of playoff football.
Full disclosure: I was a halfway decent performance from Ryan Lindley, and a well officiated game in Dallas away from going 0-4 with my picks last week, so take the following 1,629 words with a grain of salt. Or a thousand…
Saturday
4:30 PM
Patriots (+7) Over Ravens
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Ravens: Joe Flacco. The man is a playoff machine. During the regular season, Flacco is a slightly above average quarterback, but every year come January, he seems to have something extra in the tank. In the playoffs, his winning percentage jumps .99, his touchdown to turnover ratio is greatly improved, and he wins games. Flacco’s record of 10-4, highlighted by his 4-0 Super Bowl run just 2 years ago, has earned him the label of playoff quarterback. Flacco has also beaten the Patriots in the playoffs twice since joining the league. The Ravens also have John Harbaugh, one of the few coaches who actually seems to have the Patriots figured out. He’s always known how to disrupt Tom Brady and the Pats offense by dominating possession and bringing a heavy pass rush. Dominating time of possession may be tough for the Ravens to pull of as they are still without running back Ray Rice, and are forced to start back up Justin Forsett, who unlike all of the league’s good running backs has not committed a crime. What the Ravens do have is a strong pass rush, something that can give the Pats big problems. With Haloti Ngata returning last week from being grounded for taking Adderall the night before his SAT’s, the fierce Ravens front four, which includes Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs, have a combined 15 Pro Bowl appearances. If the Ravens can bring pressure up the middle, they will be able to disrupt Tom Brady and the potent Patriots offense.
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Patriots: This is not the same Patriots team that the Ravens have given fits to in the past. For the two Patriots VS Ravens playoff games played since Pats star tight end Rob Gronkowski entered in the league, Gronk has only played a total of one half. In the 2012 AFC Championship game, Gronk was injured early on by Bernard eff-ing Pollard-yes the same guy who tore Tom Brady’s ACL and has single handedly cost the Patriots at least one Super Bowl-Gronk was already hurt for the 2013 championship game. This year, for the first time since the 2011 season, Gronk has played all 16 games and looks poised to give the weak Ravens secondary problems. This also isn’t the same Patriots secondary that Joe Flacco has been able to pick apart in the past. Long gone are the days of Julian Edelman, Tom Brady’s current #1 target, listlessly playing cornerback. The Patriots have revamped their secondary since their last meeting with the Ravens with the additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. With that powerhouse overseeing the secondary, the Ravens top receivers-Torrey and Steve Smith-may struggle to rack up the big plays that they usually rely on, leaving it to other receivers like Jacoby Jones and Kamar Aiken to step up and make big plays. This game is also in Foxboro, a place the Patriots absolutely own. Prior to week 17, when the Patriots laid down and let the Bills first stringers play a relatively competitive game with the Pats backups, the Patriots had won 34 consecutive home games against AFC opponents. Their last loss at home prior to that had been in week two of the 2012 season against the Arizona Cardinals. The Patriots are the better team in this matchup, and as long as they execute, they should be able to pull it out.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Ravens, 23
8:15 PM
Seahawks (+11) Over Panthers
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Panthers: There’s no use in me wasting my time, or yours, pulling out some BS sabermetric to try and convince you that the Panthers are going to win this game. The Panthers don’t really have a lot going for them. They are a 7-win team who are in the Divisional Round only because they got to play the C̶a̶r̶s̶o̶n̶ P̶a̶l̶m̶e̶r̶ D̶r̶e̶w̶ S̶t̶a̶n̶t̶o̶n̶ Ryan Lindley led Arizona Cardinals. Now they have to travel to the Pacific Northwest to play in the toughest road stadium in the league, against the defending champs, who have won 6 straight games. The one thing the Panthers sort of have going for them is their relative success against the Seahawks as of late. The two teams have played each other in each of the last 3 seasons, and though the Panthers have not beaten Seattle in any of the 3 matchups, they have shown incredible fight and ability to stay in games against the defending champs, most notably this past November when the Seahawks had to rally to beat Carolina 13-9. The Panthers strong defense is what really gives them a chance in this game. In those 3 recent matchups, the Panthers D has held the Seahawks to 16 points or fewer, not allowing a passing touchdown in any of the games. If the Panthers defense can contain Marshawn Lynch and get to Russell Wilson, they will be able to stay in this game. It would also help them if Cam Newton could stop throwing off his back foot and figure out how to hit an open receiver.
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Seahawks: Alright, alright, take a 5 minute break to laugh out that last paragraph…you good? Look, if the Panthers can pull all of that off, fine, maybe they’ll still be in the game early in the 4th quarter. But realistically, it won’t be that close. Last week, the Panthers struggled to put away an overwhelmingly weak Cardinals team who would have been better off being quarterbacked by an injured, current day Troy Aikman, annoying voice, and obvious analysis and all. If the Panthers give the Seahawks that many opportunities this week, it’s going to be a quick and easy win for Seattle. Seattle is too good of a team to be given opportunity after opportunity, at some point, they will capitalize on the great field position they will inevitably get after a Cam Newton turnover or another brutal Brad Nortman punt. With Seattle’s dominant D firing on all cylinders, and the offense seemingly worked out for now, the Seahawks shouldn’t have any trouble dispatching this anemic Panthers squad.
Prediction: Seahawks 30, Panthers 9
Sunday
1:05 PM
Cowboys (-5.5) Over Packers
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Packers: Aaron Rodgers has been historically good at Lambeau field over the last two seasons. Going to back to last season, Rodgers has thrown over 400 passes without throwing an interception at home, throwing 38 touchdowns in the process. This run has cemented him as an elite quarterback, and has given his team the #2 seed in this years playoffs. Rodgers’ dominance at Lambeau has also resulted in the Packers becoming one of the leagues best home teams, going 8-0 in Green Bay this season. And with this game being played at Lambeau, on the frozen natural grass that very few teams are used to, the Pack will have an advantage over the Cowboys. Throw in Dallas’ weak secondary that will surely be picked apart by Rodgers if he’s given the chance, and it seems like this is the Packers dream matchup. If they can establish their running game with Eddie Lacy, and bring a heavy pass rush in through the middle on Tony Romo, the Packers can defend their home field.
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Cowboys: Going right up against Green Bay’s 8-0 home record, is the 8-0 road record of the Dallas Cowboys. Romo and the Cowboys have been just as dominant on the road as the Packers have been at home, earning wins in Seattle and Philadelphia. The X-factor for Dallas will be its offensive line, and its running game. If the O-line can play at an all-pro level like it has all season, the Cowboys have a real shot. The last thing the Packers want is for DeMarco Murray to get large holes to run through, and for Tony Romo to have plenty of time to find his receivers. The big question that will swing this game one way or the other is Aaron Rodgers’ torn calf muscle. As the week has progressed, his calf has gone from good, to fine, to definitely a little injured, to now being slightly torn. The Packers team doctor came out on Thursday and told us that he would definitely not be at 100% for the game. So will we see a limited Aaron Rodgers, or the Aaron Rodgers who came out from the locker room a few weeks ago, a la Willis Reed, and brought his team back to win? I have a hard time trusting anyone playing in the brutal cold of Green Bay with a muscle injury, even if it is Aaron Rodgers. He will likely be extremely limited, even if he doesn’t tear the muscle further, which will be a challenge against the pesky Dallas pass rush. As classic Cowboys as it would be for them to lose this game after the destiny gods handed them that game last week, I have a lot of faith in the Dallas offense, and some serious doubts about Aaron Rodgers playing injured in the cold.
Prediction Cowboys 27, Packers, 24
4:40 PM
Broncos (+7) Over Colts
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Colts: Once again, it’s all about quarterback play. After I predicted another subpar playoff performance from Andrew Luck last week, he came out a put on and show against the Bengals. He absolutely dominated the Cincinnati defense and put his team back into the conversation after they had fallen out of it with a few bad performances. It’s going to take a big performance from Luck this week to beat Denver without any semblance of a running game, but with the way he has looked, he just might be able to do it. It’s also going to take a strong showing from the Indianapolis defense. In the second half of the season, Peyton Manning has ceased to look like Peyton Manning when he doesn’t have time in the pocket. He has been throwing up ducks left and right that have left DB’s around the league salivating. If Indy wants to win this game, they will have to get to Peyton, and disrupt his rhythm.
Why You’ll Regret Picking Against the Broncos: This week, things are going to be different for Andrew Luck. Against the Bengals, Luck was able to sit back in the pocket and wait for his speedy receivers to get open as the insignificant Cincy pass rush gave him all the time in the world. Luck won’t have that luxury this week against the Broncos. Denver’s defense is just better than Cincinnati’s is, and Andrew Luck will learn that pretty quickly, if he doesn’t know it already. The Broncos pass rush will be all over him from the start, and if there has been one bad aspect of Luck’s unbelievable first 3 NFL seasons, it has been his struggles against defenses that get to him. When he gets pressured, he tends to blindly throw passes into tight spots, which often gets him into trouble. Making things even tougher on Luck will be the continued lack of production he will get from his running backs. This will allow Denver to leave their linebackers back in coverage, taking passing lanes away from Luck. The Broncos can also run the ball, which is something that we’ve seen teams use to terrorize the Indy defense. If Denver can contain Andrew Luck, and can keep Peyton upright, they should be able to pull this one out.
Prediction: Broncos 31, Colts 24
1/3/14
By Eli Lederman
How did we end up here? It was a long, wild, rollercoaster ride of an NFL season in 2014. One marred by off the field issues and lots of weird things on the field. There are countless NFL New Year’s resolutions for 2015 spanning from Ndamukong Suh learning to watch where he walks, to Roger Goodell finally learning right from wrong. But it's 2015 now, and with all of the stink from 2014 gone, it's finally playoff time. So in honor of that, here is my Wild Card Weekend preview:
Saturday
4:35 PM
Arizona at Carolina
Panthers (-6.5) Over Cardinals
The Case for the Cardinals: The Panthers won the NFC South at 7-8-1, going 64 days between wins at one point. And you shouldn’t be too encouraged by their current 4-game win streak either; they did it going up against teams with a combined record of 22-42. The Panthers are always prone to offensive struggles as well. Cam Newton really only has 1.5 viable passing options in Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen, and if Cards star CB Patrick Peterson can take Benjamin out of the game, Cam will be significantly limited. Also, if the Arizona D can keep the game close, the Cards are only an inevitable Cam Newton mistake away from pulling this game out.
The Case for Panthers: Since losing starting quarterback Carson Palmer in week 10, and then second stringer Drew Stanton 5 weeks later, the Arizona Cardinals have been in a tailspin. Their early season success still allowed them to limp into the playoffs as the 5-seed, but so long as they are quarterbacked by Ryan Lindley, they won’t get any further. The Cards have scored just 87 points in their last 7 games. The one thing Arizona does have going for them, their defense, will create problems for them as well. What has made the Cardinal defense so powerful has been their ability to disrupt offenses and create chaos. The problem is that this week, they are going up against Cam Newton, a running quarterback who thrives in chaos. If that doesn’t worry you, how about making the Cards play on the road? This is a team that only finished .500 on the road because they beat Brandon Weeden, Shaun Hill, Derek Carr and an Odell Beckham-less Eli Manning. If none of that does it for you, there is also the fact that this team is starting Ryan Lindley, Ryan freaking Lindley, at quarterback! What happens when the Panthers go up 10-0 and Lindley is actually forced to start making things happen for the offense?
Prediction: Panthers 20, Cardinals 9
8:15 PM
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Steelers (-3.5) Over Ravens
The Case for the Ravens: It was sort of an ugly year for the Ravens, but per usual, they made their way into the playoffs. And despite the weak season, you can never count the Ravens out come January. Let’s not forget that John Harbaugh is 9-4 in the playoffs (7 wins on the road), or that the weather forecast is calling for rain and possible snow (perfect conditions for the Ravens), or that that weather will increase the importance of special teams (Baltimore’s specialty). How about the impact of the Steelers not having running back Le’Veon Bell and potentially becoming one dimensional? Or the idea of Ravens QB Joe Flacco attacking the Steelers biggest weakness-their secondary’s inability to prevent the deep ball-over and over? You also can’t ever rule out a few big kickoff returns from Jacoby Jones. The Ravens are definitely underdogs, but they do have the potential makings for a major upset.
The Case for the Steelers: While Joe Flacco attacks Pittsburgh’s secondary, Ben Roethlisberger will most definitely be doing the same, and he’ll be doing so with the most dangerous passing attack in the league. The above average Pittsburgh pass rush should be able to give Joe Flacco some trouble going up against the banged up Baltimore O-line. Let’s also not forget the fact that Baltimore won 4 of its 10 games against the abysmal NFC South, and that they haven’t beaten a team above .500 since week 2. Throw in Big Ben’s big game acumen, and the league’s most explosive offensive player in Antonio Brown, and the Steelers should be able to handle the Ravens.
Prediction: Steelers 38, Ravens 27
Sunday
1:05 PM
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Bengals (+4) over Colts
The Case for the Colts: Andrew Luck is a pretty unbelievable quarterback, and he is even better when he isn’t going up against a decent pass rush. J.J. Watt had more sacks (20.5) this season than the entire Bengals defense combined. So there’s that… Then you have the banged up Bengals receiving corps that includes an injured A.J. Green looking questionable for the Bengals after dealing with Andy Dalton’s brutal passing leading him in DB’s all season long, and a broken down looking Jermaine Gresham who has been hurt all season. Otherwise, it’s Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis in a big game… a big game on the road…oh boy I’m sort of starting to regret this pick…
The Case for the Bengals: But wait, the Colts don’t have a running game. Like none whatsoever. After losing Ahmad Bradshaw to a fractured fibula early in the season, the Colts were reduced to the running back corps of Boom Herron and the lifeless Trent Richardson. Suffice it to say, Indy doesn’t do a lot of running. Contrasting with their inability to run, is the Colts inability to stop the run. We watched the Patriots and the Cowboys run the ball down the Colts throats this season, and Bengals rookie RB Jeremy Hill could do the same. Indy also hasn’t looked all that good for a while now. They’ve been blown out 3 times in the past 9 weeks, and have struggled against teams like the Browns and the Texans. Despite Andrew Luck’s overall excellence, he is very keen on throwing the ball up for grabs a lot; something the interception-hungry Cincy secondary will take advantage of. And Andy Dalton could also destroy Cincinnati’s postseason like we all expect him to, without doing it all this weekend.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Colts 23
4:40 PM
Lions at Cowboys
Cowboys (-7) over Lions
The Case for the Lions: It’s Tony Romo…And Jason Garrett…in the playoffs. Dallas’ biggest strength is running the ball, the Lions’ biggest strength stopping the run, and with DeMarco Murray having already carried the ball 392 times this season, I’ll give the nod to Detroit there. How about the Lions big play weapons going up against the weak Dallas secondary? Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate burning Brandon Carr and Orlando Scandrick as the Lions offense moves up and down the field. And really, you do have to keep the playoff shortcomings of the Cowboys in mind. They have gone from coincidence, to scientific anomaly, and any Cowboy fan under the age of 25 is, and should be expecting the worst during the biggest moments of a game.
The Case for the Cowboys: Matt Stafford has never won a road game against a team with a winning record. So theoretically, he has played two seasons worth of road games against winning teams, and hasn’t won once. Throw in Jim Caldwell, who is bound to make at least 1-3 bad challenges/clock management decisions/coaching moves throughout the game, and the Cowboys should be able to stay out of their own way and pull this one out. To go along with Stafford’s record against teams with winning records on the road, the Lions are also 0-3 against teams with winning records since week 2. Dallas’ strong O-line should be able to contain Detroit’s front 4 long enough to give Tony Romo some time in the pocket to hit his receivers. You also need to assume at least one Dez Bryant touchdown, and most likely a DeMarco Murray score as well, (even if it is a goal line vulture TD type situation) and probably a defensive touchdown on a Matt Stafford fumble or interception. The Cowboys should be able to advance barring an absolute meltdown from Tony Romo, or any Buffalo Wild Wings commercial type circumstances, which with the Cowboys, in the playoffs, are very much in play.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Lions 17
By Eli Lederman
How did we end up here? It was a long, wild, rollercoaster ride of an NFL season in 2014. One marred by off the field issues and lots of weird things on the field. There are countless NFL New Year’s resolutions for 2015 spanning from Ndamukong Suh learning to watch where he walks, to Roger Goodell finally learning right from wrong. But it's 2015 now, and with all of the stink from 2014 gone, it's finally playoff time. So in honor of that, here is my Wild Card Weekend preview:
Saturday
4:35 PM
Arizona at Carolina
Panthers (-6.5) Over Cardinals
The Case for the Cardinals: The Panthers won the NFC South at 7-8-1, going 64 days between wins at one point. And you shouldn’t be too encouraged by their current 4-game win streak either; they did it going up against teams with a combined record of 22-42. The Panthers are always prone to offensive struggles as well. Cam Newton really only has 1.5 viable passing options in Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen, and if Cards star CB Patrick Peterson can take Benjamin out of the game, Cam will be significantly limited. Also, if the Arizona D can keep the game close, the Cards are only an inevitable Cam Newton mistake away from pulling this game out.
The Case for Panthers: Since losing starting quarterback Carson Palmer in week 10, and then second stringer Drew Stanton 5 weeks later, the Arizona Cardinals have been in a tailspin. Their early season success still allowed them to limp into the playoffs as the 5-seed, but so long as they are quarterbacked by Ryan Lindley, they won’t get any further. The Cards have scored just 87 points in their last 7 games. The one thing Arizona does have going for them, their defense, will create problems for them as well. What has made the Cardinal defense so powerful has been their ability to disrupt offenses and create chaos. The problem is that this week, they are going up against Cam Newton, a running quarterback who thrives in chaos. If that doesn’t worry you, how about making the Cards play on the road? This is a team that only finished .500 on the road because they beat Brandon Weeden, Shaun Hill, Derek Carr and an Odell Beckham-less Eli Manning. If none of that does it for you, there is also the fact that this team is starting Ryan Lindley, Ryan freaking Lindley, at quarterback! What happens when the Panthers go up 10-0 and Lindley is actually forced to start making things happen for the offense?
Prediction: Panthers 20, Cardinals 9
8:15 PM
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Steelers (-3.5) Over Ravens
The Case for the Ravens: It was sort of an ugly year for the Ravens, but per usual, they made their way into the playoffs. And despite the weak season, you can never count the Ravens out come January. Let’s not forget that John Harbaugh is 9-4 in the playoffs (7 wins on the road), or that the weather forecast is calling for rain and possible snow (perfect conditions for the Ravens), or that that weather will increase the importance of special teams (Baltimore’s specialty). How about the impact of the Steelers not having running back Le’Veon Bell and potentially becoming one dimensional? Or the idea of Ravens QB Joe Flacco attacking the Steelers biggest weakness-their secondary’s inability to prevent the deep ball-over and over? You also can’t ever rule out a few big kickoff returns from Jacoby Jones. The Ravens are definitely underdogs, but they do have the potential makings for a major upset.
The Case for the Steelers: While Joe Flacco attacks Pittsburgh’s secondary, Ben Roethlisberger will most definitely be doing the same, and he’ll be doing so with the most dangerous passing attack in the league. The above average Pittsburgh pass rush should be able to give Joe Flacco some trouble going up against the banged up Baltimore O-line. Let’s also not forget the fact that Baltimore won 4 of its 10 games against the abysmal NFC South, and that they haven’t beaten a team above .500 since week 2. Throw in Big Ben’s big game acumen, and the league’s most explosive offensive player in Antonio Brown, and the Steelers should be able to handle the Ravens.
Prediction: Steelers 38, Ravens 27
Sunday
1:05 PM
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Bengals (+4) over Colts
The Case for the Colts: Andrew Luck is a pretty unbelievable quarterback, and he is even better when he isn’t going up against a decent pass rush. J.J. Watt had more sacks (20.5) this season than the entire Bengals defense combined. So there’s that… Then you have the banged up Bengals receiving corps that includes an injured A.J. Green looking questionable for the Bengals after dealing with Andy Dalton’s brutal passing leading him in DB’s all season long, and a broken down looking Jermaine Gresham who has been hurt all season. Otherwise, it’s Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis in a big game… a big game on the road…oh boy I’m sort of starting to regret this pick…
The Case for the Bengals: But wait, the Colts don’t have a running game. Like none whatsoever. After losing Ahmad Bradshaw to a fractured fibula early in the season, the Colts were reduced to the running back corps of Boom Herron and the lifeless Trent Richardson. Suffice it to say, Indy doesn’t do a lot of running. Contrasting with their inability to run, is the Colts inability to stop the run. We watched the Patriots and the Cowboys run the ball down the Colts throats this season, and Bengals rookie RB Jeremy Hill could do the same. Indy also hasn’t looked all that good for a while now. They’ve been blown out 3 times in the past 9 weeks, and have struggled against teams like the Browns and the Texans. Despite Andrew Luck’s overall excellence, he is very keen on throwing the ball up for grabs a lot; something the interception-hungry Cincy secondary will take advantage of. And Andy Dalton could also destroy Cincinnati’s postseason like we all expect him to, without doing it all this weekend.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Colts 23
4:40 PM
Lions at Cowboys
Cowboys (-7) over Lions
The Case for the Lions: It’s Tony Romo…And Jason Garrett…in the playoffs. Dallas’ biggest strength is running the ball, the Lions’ biggest strength stopping the run, and with DeMarco Murray having already carried the ball 392 times this season, I’ll give the nod to Detroit there. How about the Lions big play weapons going up against the weak Dallas secondary? Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate burning Brandon Carr and Orlando Scandrick as the Lions offense moves up and down the field. And really, you do have to keep the playoff shortcomings of the Cowboys in mind. They have gone from coincidence, to scientific anomaly, and any Cowboy fan under the age of 25 is, and should be expecting the worst during the biggest moments of a game.
The Case for the Cowboys: Matt Stafford has never won a road game against a team with a winning record. So theoretically, he has played two seasons worth of road games against winning teams, and hasn’t won once. Throw in Jim Caldwell, who is bound to make at least 1-3 bad challenges/clock management decisions/coaching moves throughout the game, and the Cowboys should be able to stay out of their own way and pull this one out. To go along with Stafford’s record against teams with winning records on the road, the Lions are also 0-3 against teams with winning records since week 2. Dallas’ strong O-line should be able to contain Detroit’s front 4 long enough to give Tony Romo some time in the pocket to hit his receivers. You also need to assume at least one Dez Bryant touchdown, and most likely a DeMarco Murray score as well, (even if it is a goal line vulture TD type situation) and probably a defensive touchdown on a Matt Stafford fumble or interception. The Cowboys should be able to advance barring an absolute meltdown from Tony Romo, or any Buffalo Wild Wings commercial type circumstances, which with the Cowboys, in the playoffs, are very much in play.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Lions 17
12/20/14
By Eli Lederman
Why is Roger Goodell still the commissioner of the National Football League? It’s a question that we’ve been pondering all season long. Fortunately for him, the NFL season has panned out in such a way that the ridicule has been refocused from him, at least somewhat, to the likes of Jay Cutler and John Idzik. Despite a rocky start, this NFL season has turned out to be as entertaining as ever -with the final two weeks set up to provide us with some intriguing matchups with playoff implications. Last Sunday, we saw the world’s most famous back-up quarterback, Johnny Manziel, flounder in his first career start, then the seemingly unbeatable Packers were beaten by the Buffalo Bills, and after all of that, the Dallas Cowboys gave us a peek at what might be another classic Dallas, December collapse, after nearly blowing a 21-0 lead on Sunday Night Football in Philadelphia. Even more importantly, it had been 2.5 weeks since the last NFL off-field blemish was in the news, when Ray Rice won his appeal and was reinstated. At this point, that’s a long time without seeing something negative about Goodell on an ESPN ticker, or a New York Post cover with a bad pun with the shamed commissioner on it. It had been too long, and myself, along with many others, were waiting for the other shoe to drop; and on Monday, it did. That other shoe dropped in the form of an audiotape of NFL VP of Player Operations Troy Vincent making a promise to Adrian Peterson regarding his suspension. The tape, which came out just a week after Vincent told ESPN’s Mike & Mike that he had made no promises to the besieged Vikings running back, featured Vincent telling Peterson that if he went through the appeal process, and cooperated with the league, he would receive a 2-game suspension. The appeal resulted in Peterson being given an indefinite suspension, leaving him with nothing to do but sue the league.
This is another one of the countless situations that the NFL has botched this season. And while this one isn’t exactly on Roger Goodell, at least not yet, it still happened on his watch, and he is still at fault. The way the last four months have gone, Goodell has proven to just about everyone (except the owners apparently) that he is an incompetent commissioner who can’t make consistent decisions, and can’t handle the employees underneath him. Why haven’t the owners done anything about this? The commissioner works for them. His job is to represent their interests and carry things out on their behalf. Hasn’t he embarrassed them enough? I know, he’s made the owners billions of dollars, and has made the league exponentially more popular since he stepped in as commissioner, but couldn’t they find someone else who could do the same things, while also making smart and logical decisions? I don’t know, maybe someone like me? This is the official start of my campaign to become NFL Czar, and here is why it’s not such a crazy idea.
Reason #1- Anyone Can Sell the NFL
One of the things that has kept Roger Goodell somewhat afloat during his time as commissioner has been his ability to make the NFL into money making machine, more so than it had ever been before. Since he proceeded Paul Tagliabue as commissioner in 2006, the NFL has skyrocketed, becoming by far the most popular sports league in America, and Goodell has been an instrumental part of that ascension. But was it really his business savvy that propelled the league? Or was it just a very opportune time to become the commissioner?
The early part of this century has been a golden era for the NFL. The league has been blessed with numerous marketable stars, the overwhelming emergence of Fantasy Football, and the creation of the ultimate, home, fan experience. The new, more marketable stars have led to sponsors for the league. Fantasy Football has led casual fans into becoming diehards. And the home, fan experience, which has become just as good, if not better than actually being at the game, has given the NFL the most lucrative TV deals ever. All of this has combined to thrust the league into hemispheres not ever before seen in sports. And all of it has made Roger Goodell look really really good.
Here’s the thing, the NFL isn’t that hard a sell. Roger Goodell is selling a multi-billion dollar enterprise, not Geno Smith Jerseys. While I do respect the job that he has done from a business perspective, and though I am certainly no where near earning an MBA (Something Goodell hasn’t done either), I feel like I could pull off a majority of the business responsibilities of the commissioner. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think that doing business in the NFL is easier than in any other profession, but I feel like if I was getting paid $44 million per year, I could probably figure it out. I could take a crash course, kind of like Drivers-Ed, where some old guy in a tracksuit, who is missing a few teeth, yells “ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS DRIVE UP THE PRICE AND CREATE A BIDDING WAR BETWEEN THE TV NETWORKS EVERY FEW YEARS WHEN THE CONTRACTS EXPIRE”. Seems like something I could handle. Obviously there is more to the position than that, but for Goodell’s go to “This is why I should remain commissioner” line to be “I’ve made the league a lot of money”, that’s a problem. It’s a problem because anyone could sell the NFL. It sells itself. So long as America loves football, so will networks, and sponsors, and companies, and they will always be willing to pay for their name, or their station, to be associated with the NFL. That’s reason #1 for why I should be the NFL’s next commissioner.
Reason #2- I Have a Moral Compass
At least more of a moral compass than our current commissioner does. Roger Goodell, himself, has never really done anything morally wrong (That we know of…). But his punishments for NFL players who have broken the law during the past 8 months have been questionable and inconsistent. I’m not questioning Goodell’s morals, because I do believe that he knows right from wrong, but there is something about his disciplinary decisions that makes me think he really just doesn’t get it. After watching him fail to deliver a fair and consistent ruling in any of the situations from this fall, it’s beginning to seem like his decisions are being made with the appearance of the league more in mind, than of the people and transgressions involved, and what the right thing actually is. The sad part about that, apart from the fact that that may actually go into his decision making, is that he has completely failed at making the league look good in any of his decisions. Roger Goodell has continually embarrassed himself, and the league, with each of his disciplinary decisions, dating back to Bountygate with the 2012 New Orleans Saints, in which Goodell’s ex-boss, former commissioner Paul Tagliabue, had to come in and clean up the mess that his former apprentice had made.
Essentially, Goodell’s moral compass has been way off for the near entirety of his commissionership. Never was this misguided judgment more evident than this past August, when Goodell suspended Browns WR Josh Gordon 10 games for possession of marijuana, and then several days’ later, suspended Ray Rice 2 games for physically assaulting his fiancée. This is a country where marijuana is legal in certain states! How could he have been that far off and that far apart in his discipline? Though it is true that even if Gordon were to live in a state where marijuana was legal, he still could not possess or use it, in accordance with the NFL code of conduct, it’s still supremely ridiculous that he was reprimanded so harshly for what was a misdemeanor drug possession arrest. Ray Rice hit a woman! Any man who hits a woman is not a man at all, and when Roger Goodell handed out his inconsequential suspension to Ray Rice, he essentially condoned the act, by giving Rice nothing more than a slap on the wrist.
In all likelihood, Roger Goodell is going to lose a portion of his disciplinary power after the disaster that this season has been. There is no way he can’t; he has mishandled far too many disciplinary decisions during his time as commissioner. I know that as commissioner I’m not going to get all of the decisions right, it’s obviously not an easy thing, and no two cases are the same. But that’s the thing, as commissioner, it doesn’t always have to be perfect. That position comes with a lot of power, and not every decision has to be perfect. The decisions just have to be fair and consistent. And when there is a glaringly obvious decision to be made, you need to make the obvious decision. You cant overthink it. Roger Goodell is the Shaquille O’Neal of commissioners; he can make the shot in traffic, with three guys draped on him, but when you ask him to make a free throw, he’s absolutely lost. The Ray Rice situation should have been an easy free throw for Goodell. Instead he airballed the shot, nailed a ref with an inadvertent punch as he turned away in disgust, and lost the game for his team. Or in Goodell’s terms, the easy free throw ended with him botching the Rice decision, becoming a national punch line, and somehow becoming the villain of the case in which he was to discipline a man who had hit his fiancée…
During my inevitable commissionership, I will rule fairly and consistently. That’s all you have to do; I honestly don’t believe that anyone would have been that upset had Goodell’s rulings just been consistent with those in the past. So long as I rule with consistency, I think things will work out just fine. That’s reason #2 for why I should be commissioner of the NFL.
Reason #3- I Am a Fan. And I Get It.
As a fan of the NFL, I have watched in fear the last few years as ideas of a team in London, playoff expansion, and countless others have been floated around the NFL. These efforts by the league to make even more money should scare any fan. While any of these ideas will boost the NFL’s financial gain, they will also destroy certain aspects of the game. When I’m commissioner, none of that will happen. A team in London? No way. It would be a pain for teams to travel there each week, plus we’d have to institute some sort of salary cap exception for them as they would have to overpay players to come overseas. An expanded playoff system? Nope. Do we really want to see teams like the Texans and Browns anywhere near the playoffs? An 18-game schedule? No way. Players’ bodies deteriorate enough during the current 16-game season, and that excludes the playoffs. Adding more teams? Not going to happen. There are already enough bad teams in the league, and adding more would do nothing to help that. Although it would be fun to see what kind of stupid team name an ownership group consisting of Magic Johnson, Oprah and other stars would come up with when we added a team in Los Angeles. Speaking of LA, we probably would see a team in Los Angeles within a few years of me becoming commissioner, but it would be a team like the Raiders or the Rams, the two teams whose stadium contracts expire next, so I don’t think we’ll upset too large of a population with that move.
The other large change that is going to be made is penalties. As I spoke about in my The NFL’s Offense Problem article, the league has become too offense oriented, even adding an emphasis on calling penalties such as defensive holding and defensive pass interference. Both penalties have gotten out of hand. Personally, I am sick of seeing defensive backs being penalized for slight jersey grabs during important situations. So my first course of action would be to de-emphasize defensive holding penalties, leveling the playing field once again.
As a fan, I know what it is that fans want. They don’t want to see another new team in a small market city that routinely goes 2-14, or a big game decided by the refs. Its time for the league to get with what the fans want, and not just what will make their wallets a little bit fatter. When I’m commissioner, the fans, and the fan experience, will be kept in mind. This is the final reason for why I should be the commissioner of the NFL.
In the end, all the commissioner needs to do is be logical. There isn’t a lot more to running the NFL than that; when you have the opportunity to make money, make more of it, when a player commits a crime, discipline him fairly, and when the fans don’t like something, fix it. Obviously, it’s never that simple, but anyone making almost $50 million dollars a year should be able to figure the little things out. So when any of you become commissioner of the National Football League, just go with your gut, you’ll probably make the right call. Unless you’re Roger Goodell of course, then figure out what your gut feeling is, then do the exact opposite.
By Eli Lederman
Why is Roger Goodell still the commissioner of the National Football League? It’s a question that we’ve been pondering all season long. Fortunately for him, the NFL season has panned out in such a way that the ridicule has been refocused from him, at least somewhat, to the likes of Jay Cutler and John Idzik. Despite a rocky start, this NFL season has turned out to be as entertaining as ever -with the final two weeks set up to provide us with some intriguing matchups with playoff implications. Last Sunday, we saw the world’s most famous back-up quarterback, Johnny Manziel, flounder in his first career start, then the seemingly unbeatable Packers were beaten by the Buffalo Bills, and after all of that, the Dallas Cowboys gave us a peek at what might be another classic Dallas, December collapse, after nearly blowing a 21-0 lead on Sunday Night Football in Philadelphia. Even more importantly, it had been 2.5 weeks since the last NFL off-field blemish was in the news, when Ray Rice won his appeal and was reinstated. At this point, that’s a long time without seeing something negative about Goodell on an ESPN ticker, or a New York Post cover with a bad pun with the shamed commissioner on it. It had been too long, and myself, along with many others, were waiting for the other shoe to drop; and on Monday, it did. That other shoe dropped in the form of an audiotape of NFL VP of Player Operations Troy Vincent making a promise to Adrian Peterson regarding his suspension. The tape, which came out just a week after Vincent told ESPN’s Mike & Mike that he had made no promises to the besieged Vikings running back, featured Vincent telling Peterson that if he went through the appeal process, and cooperated with the league, he would receive a 2-game suspension. The appeal resulted in Peterson being given an indefinite suspension, leaving him with nothing to do but sue the league.
This is another one of the countless situations that the NFL has botched this season. And while this one isn’t exactly on Roger Goodell, at least not yet, it still happened on his watch, and he is still at fault. The way the last four months have gone, Goodell has proven to just about everyone (except the owners apparently) that he is an incompetent commissioner who can’t make consistent decisions, and can’t handle the employees underneath him. Why haven’t the owners done anything about this? The commissioner works for them. His job is to represent their interests and carry things out on their behalf. Hasn’t he embarrassed them enough? I know, he’s made the owners billions of dollars, and has made the league exponentially more popular since he stepped in as commissioner, but couldn’t they find someone else who could do the same things, while also making smart and logical decisions? I don’t know, maybe someone like me? This is the official start of my campaign to become NFL Czar, and here is why it’s not such a crazy idea.
Reason #1- Anyone Can Sell the NFL
One of the things that has kept Roger Goodell somewhat afloat during his time as commissioner has been his ability to make the NFL into money making machine, more so than it had ever been before. Since he proceeded Paul Tagliabue as commissioner in 2006, the NFL has skyrocketed, becoming by far the most popular sports league in America, and Goodell has been an instrumental part of that ascension. But was it really his business savvy that propelled the league? Or was it just a very opportune time to become the commissioner?
The early part of this century has been a golden era for the NFL. The league has been blessed with numerous marketable stars, the overwhelming emergence of Fantasy Football, and the creation of the ultimate, home, fan experience. The new, more marketable stars have led to sponsors for the league. Fantasy Football has led casual fans into becoming diehards. And the home, fan experience, which has become just as good, if not better than actually being at the game, has given the NFL the most lucrative TV deals ever. All of this has combined to thrust the league into hemispheres not ever before seen in sports. And all of it has made Roger Goodell look really really good.
Here’s the thing, the NFL isn’t that hard a sell. Roger Goodell is selling a multi-billion dollar enterprise, not Geno Smith Jerseys. While I do respect the job that he has done from a business perspective, and though I am certainly no where near earning an MBA (Something Goodell hasn’t done either), I feel like I could pull off a majority of the business responsibilities of the commissioner. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think that doing business in the NFL is easier than in any other profession, but I feel like if I was getting paid $44 million per year, I could probably figure it out. I could take a crash course, kind of like Drivers-Ed, where some old guy in a tracksuit, who is missing a few teeth, yells “ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS DRIVE UP THE PRICE AND CREATE A BIDDING WAR BETWEEN THE TV NETWORKS EVERY FEW YEARS WHEN THE CONTRACTS EXPIRE”. Seems like something I could handle. Obviously there is more to the position than that, but for Goodell’s go to “This is why I should remain commissioner” line to be “I’ve made the league a lot of money”, that’s a problem. It’s a problem because anyone could sell the NFL. It sells itself. So long as America loves football, so will networks, and sponsors, and companies, and they will always be willing to pay for their name, or their station, to be associated with the NFL. That’s reason #1 for why I should be the NFL’s next commissioner.
Reason #2- I Have a Moral Compass
At least more of a moral compass than our current commissioner does. Roger Goodell, himself, has never really done anything morally wrong (That we know of…). But his punishments for NFL players who have broken the law during the past 8 months have been questionable and inconsistent. I’m not questioning Goodell’s morals, because I do believe that he knows right from wrong, but there is something about his disciplinary decisions that makes me think he really just doesn’t get it. After watching him fail to deliver a fair and consistent ruling in any of the situations from this fall, it’s beginning to seem like his decisions are being made with the appearance of the league more in mind, than of the people and transgressions involved, and what the right thing actually is. The sad part about that, apart from the fact that that may actually go into his decision making, is that he has completely failed at making the league look good in any of his decisions. Roger Goodell has continually embarrassed himself, and the league, with each of his disciplinary decisions, dating back to Bountygate with the 2012 New Orleans Saints, in which Goodell’s ex-boss, former commissioner Paul Tagliabue, had to come in and clean up the mess that his former apprentice had made.
Essentially, Goodell’s moral compass has been way off for the near entirety of his commissionership. Never was this misguided judgment more evident than this past August, when Goodell suspended Browns WR Josh Gordon 10 games for possession of marijuana, and then several days’ later, suspended Ray Rice 2 games for physically assaulting his fiancée. This is a country where marijuana is legal in certain states! How could he have been that far off and that far apart in his discipline? Though it is true that even if Gordon were to live in a state where marijuana was legal, he still could not possess or use it, in accordance with the NFL code of conduct, it’s still supremely ridiculous that he was reprimanded so harshly for what was a misdemeanor drug possession arrest. Ray Rice hit a woman! Any man who hits a woman is not a man at all, and when Roger Goodell handed out his inconsequential suspension to Ray Rice, he essentially condoned the act, by giving Rice nothing more than a slap on the wrist.
In all likelihood, Roger Goodell is going to lose a portion of his disciplinary power after the disaster that this season has been. There is no way he can’t; he has mishandled far too many disciplinary decisions during his time as commissioner. I know that as commissioner I’m not going to get all of the decisions right, it’s obviously not an easy thing, and no two cases are the same. But that’s the thing, as commissioner, it doesn’t always have to be perfect. That position comes with a lot of power, and not every decision has to be perfect. The decisions just have to be fair and consistent. And when there is a glaringly obvious decision to be made, you need to make the obvious decision. You cant overthink it. Roger Goodell is the Shaquille O’Neal of commissioners; he can make the shot in traffic, with three guys draped on him, but when you ask him to make a free throw, he’s absolutely lost. The Ray Rice situation should have been an easy free throw for Goodell. Instead he airballed the shot, nailed a ref with an inadvertent punch as he turned away in disgust, and lost the game for his team. Or in Goodell’s terms, the easy free throw ended with him botching the Rice decision, becoming a national punch line, and somehow becoming the villain of the case in which he was to discipline a man who had hit his fiancée…
During my inevitable commissionership, I will rule fairly and consistently. That’s all you have to do; I honestly don’t believe that anyone would have been that upset had Goodell’s rulings just been consistent with those in the past. So long as I rule with consistency, I think things will work out just fine. That’s reason #2 for why I should be commissioner of the NFL.
Reason #3- I Am a Fan. And I Get It.
As a fan of the NFL, I have watched in fear the last few years as ideas of a team in London, playoff expansion, and countless others have been floated around the NFL. These efforts by the league to make even more money should scare any fan. While any of these ideas will boost the NFL’s financial gain, they will also destroy certain aspects of the game. When I’m commissioner, none of that will happen. A team in London? No way. It would be a pain for teams to travel there each week, plus we’d have to institute some sort of salary cap exception for them as they would have to overpay players to come overseas. An expanded playoff system? Nope. Do we really want to see teams like the Texans and Browns anywhere near the playoffs? An 18-game schedule? No way. Players’ bodies deteriorate enough during the current 16-game season, and that excludes the playoffs. Adding more teams? Not going to happen. There are already enough bad teams in the league, and adding more would do nothing to help that. Although it would be fun to see what kind of stupid team name an ownership group consisting of Magic Johnson, Oprah and other stars would come up with when we added a team in Los Angeles. Speaking of LA, we probably would see a team in Los Angeles within a few years of me becoming commissioner, but it would be a team like the Raiders or the Rams, the two teams whose stadium contracts expire next, so I don’t think we’ll upset too large of a population with that move.
The other large change that is going to be made is penalties. As I spoke about in my The NFL’s Offense Problem article, the league has become too offense oriented, even adding an emphasis on calling penalties such as defensive holding and defensive pass interference. Both penalties have gotten out of hand. Personally, I am sick of seeing defensive backs being penalized for slight jersey grabs during important situations. So my first course of action would be to de-emphasize defensive holding penalties, leveling the playing field once again.
As a fan, I know what it is that fans want. They don’t want to see another new team in a small market city that routinely goes 2-14, or a big game decided by the refs. Its time for the league to get with what the fans want, and not just what will make their wallets a little bit fatter. When I’m commissioner, the fans, and the fan experience, will be kept in mind. This is the final reason for why I should be the commissioner of the NFL.
In the end, all the commissioner needs to do is be logical. There isn’t a lot more to running the NFL than that; when you have the opportunity to make money, make more of it, when a player commits a crime, discipline him fairly, and when the fans don’t like something, fix it. Obviously, it’s never that simple, but anyone making almost $50 million dollars a year should be able to figure the little things out. So when any of you become commissioner of the National Football League, just go with your gut, you’ll probably make the right call. Unless you’re Roger Goodell of course, then figure out what your gut feeling is, then do the exact opposite.
December 3rd 2014
By Eli Lederman
On Thanksgiving afternoon, in what was supposed to be another NFC East slugfest between two teams atop the division, the Philadelphia Eagles dismantled the Dallas Cowboys to take sole possession of first place in the division. Cowboys Quarterback Tony Romo put on one of his best Choke-star performances yet, handing the game to the Eagles with 2 interceptions and just 18 completions. In the midst of a post-Thanksgiving food coma, I sat and watched another pseudo-NFL MVP candidate shoot himself in the foot.
That’s what this NFL season has been all about. Tony Romo is by the no means the first MVP candidate to blow the opportunity to win the MVP, nor is he the best. Just about every candidate has something going against him; Ben Roethlisberger can’t stay consistent or win away from Heinz Field, Andrew Luck has yet to beat a good team all year, Peyton Manning just isn’t quite as good as he was last year, and you can’t give the MVP to a guy whose team is already talking about letting him go at the end of the year (Cowboys Running Back DeMarco Murray).
So this is where we’re at with the NFL MVP race right now. We have absolutely no idea who is going to step up over the final 4 weeks of the season to earn the award. Part of the dilemma in trying to assess who should get the award, may be in our definition of the award. The problem is that there isn’t one. Most. Valuable. Player. What does it mean?
I know, you’ve heard this conversation a million times. Every single year toward the end of the season, really in all 4 of America’s major sports, people begin wondering about who should win the MVP. Then the conversation spirals into what the MVP award really means; is it the best player, or is it player who means the most to his team? Somewhere in between? A half-baked formula some guy came up with in his basement? There is no concrete definition for the award. We are a country of sports fans without a real criterion for our most prestigious individual award.
Europe? Well they have it figured out. As the world’s most popular sport, soccer’s MVP award, FIFA’s Ballon d'Or, is the most prominent and celebrated sports award in the world. While the award is voted upon by players, coaches, and journalists from around the world, FIFA’s president, who is supposed to take the voting into consideration, makes the final decision. Despite that, it is a well-known fact that the president’s decision on the award tends to be driven more by politics off the field, than play on it. In other words, it matters more which player had the president over for a barbeque this past summer than it does that another player led his team to a champions league title while leading his league in scoring.
The sentiment that the award is one more of politics than of performance was once again the topic of conversation in the soccer world last week as Bayern Munich star Franck Ribéry raised the issue in an interview with Bild, a German newspaper. Ribéry told Bild,
“I learned a lot during last year's Ballon d'Or gala. As soon as I got there, I told my wife that I would lose. I saw how Sepp Blatter was hugging Ronaldo and how his entire family was there. I'm not stupid. It was clear that he had to win it. He wouldn't have brought his entire family with him otherwise… But I fear it will be about politics again. The Ballon d'Or is no longer for the best player. It's all about politics. Fabio Cannavaro won it in 2006 because he won the World Cup, that's all. I don't miss the Ballon d'Or. I am not jealous because this award doesn't mean anything to me any more. I am happy with what I have in Munich.”
I never told you that Europe had it down perfectly; I just told you that they had their MVP award figured out. If any of you want to win Ballon d’Or 2015, just invite FIFA president Sepp Blatter over for a few drinks, laugh at a few of his jokes, tell him he’s totally competent and qualified for the position he holds, and there you go, you should be in.
All right, so back to America and our own MVP challenges. First let’s go to the MLB. Baseball actually seems to have the most sense making MVP deciding factors, a result of the way the sport, unlike most, can be pretty well assessed just by looking at statistics. But of course, just like with every other MVP award in the other major sports, it could never be that easy.
This year, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw won both the NL Cy Young award, (given to the league’s best pitcher) and the NL MVP, an award typically reserved for everyday players. There was an immediate negative reaction to the decision to award the MVP to a pitcher, as many people believe that the Most Valuable Player has to play every day, not just every fifth. As a fan, I tend to agree with that, for the most part. An outfielder who goes out everyday, plays average defense, hits above .280, drives in 100+ runs and hits 25+ home runs, trumps just about any pitching performance in any given year. But this past year, with just one player, Giancarlo Stanton, fitting that description, it became a little more shaky. Throw in a truly historic pitching performance from Clayton Kershaw in which he went 21-3 with an ERA of 1.77, 198.1 innings pitched and 239 strikeouts, and it was pretty much 50/50. Like I told you, I am usually opposed to giving the MVP to a pitcher, a player who only has an effect on his team every fifth day. The difference this year was that Clayton Kershaw, with his almost freak like consistency and brilliance on the mound, in fact affected his team on 3 of the 5 days.
Here’s how it worked: the day before a Kershaw start, Dodgers manager Don Matingly was able to fully utilize his bullpen, knowing that he could rely on Kershaw for at least 7 innings the next day. The next day, Kershaw had his obvious effect on the team, throwing out great performance after great performance, making it easy on his team to win games. The day after a Kershaw start, Matingly once again had his full bullpen at his disposal, having been able to rest a majority of the bullpen the day before.
Very rarely is a pitcher deserving of the MVP award, but this time, I think the Baseball Writers of America got it right. Typically the pitcher who comes closest to winning the MVP, usually at best 8th or 9th in voting behind everyday position players, wins the Cy Young award, the award reserved just for pitchers. But when a pitcher is able to put together a seriously historic season statistically, and dominate his opponents the way that Clayton Kershaw was able to, that player is deserving of the MVP award, even over players who play everyday.
Unlike the MLB-where the way the MVP is determined is somewhat reasonable-the NFL’s MVP determination makes zero sense. Well… fine, that’s not quite fair. It does make sense, in that there is the consistent theme of the best quarterback getting the award. That goes along with the rest of the national MVP landscape, and would be a totally fair thing if not for the fact that the NFL actually has two very similar, yet very different awards. Along with the MVP award, the NFL also hands out the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award. This idea is great, right? It allows for there to be recognition of the leagues best player, with the OPOY award, while the player who is most valuable to his team gets recognized for the great effect he has on his team. That would make too much sense. While the system is set up for that to be the case, the execution from the league is not there.
More often than not, at the end of the season during the NFL’s over-hyped, totally unnecessary awards show, the MVP and OPOY go to the same player. While there are definitely cases in which the OPOY is also the MVP, the player who wins the OPOY should not automatically be anointed MVP as he so often is. Is the running back who rushes for 1,500+ yards on a 4-12 team really more valuable to his team than the quarterback who wills his team to an 11-5 record and a playoff appearance?
The NFL really isn’t very far off from perfecting its end of season honors, especially with separate awards recognizing two different things already in place. The NFL needs to set forth definitive criteria for both awards, defining what each one entails; the OPOY being given the most outstanding offensive player in the league, and the MVP going to the player who is most valuable to his team. Unfortunately, right now, this is the least of the NFL’s worries as they continue to deal with one PR nightmare after another. Maybe the league’s management should just leave the award alone, they’d figure out some way to mess it up, right?
All right, we’re 1,500 words in, I need to get to the point. For me, the MVP award should go to the most valuable player, not necessarily the player who puts up the best stats-that’s what the OPOY award is for. There are plenty of players who can put on impeccable performances every season, but very few who truly transcend the game and have innumerable, intangible effects on their team. So who do I think should win the MVP? How about Marshawn Lynch in Seattle? With Russell Wilson and the rest of the defending champs struggling to defend their title, Lynch has accounted for 30% of his teams’ touchdowns and has carried their offense to 8 wins to this point. Others? How about Calvin Johnson or Rob Gronkowski? Neither one is putting up the historic statistics they have in the past, but that doesn’t mean they are no longer having a serious impact on their teams. Along with being the two surest receptions in football-these guys are nearly impossible to defend-they also demand more attention than any other player in the NFL. When these guys are on the field, they almost automatically require a double team at the very least, opening up the field for the other receivers on the team, making it easier for their quarterbacks to make plays. So even when Megatron and Gronk aren’t putting up big numbers in a game, they are still having a substantial effect on the game and their teams. What about the Dallas Cowboys offensive-line? Can we please just give it to an entire unit, just this once? Probably the most deserving of the award of anyone, the Dallas Cowboys offense line has completely transformed the Cowboys from an average team, to a team that could actually compete in the NFC. The Cowboys offense has always had the tools, a competent quarterback, well…okay sure… in Tony Romo, an all-pro running back in DeMarco, and a top 3 receiver in Dez Bryant, but it has never quite clicked for them. This season, with the addition of rookie lineman Zack Martin, the Dallas O-line has become the league’s best and has propelled them to new heights.
So who will be the player that actually receives the award on Super Bowl weekend in Glendale 2 months from now? As much as I'd like it to be, it won't be the Cowboys O-line, or Gronk, or any other player who has had an immense, yet maybe understated, effect on his team. It's going to go the leagues best player. At this point, it's pretty much a two horse race between Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Texans defensive end J.J. Watt. And in the end, the Associated Press will have no other choice but to give the award to Rodgers. Although Watt has had one of the greatest defensive seasons of all-time, he won’t win the MVP. He’ll walk away from this season with another Defensive Player of the Year award, but this year is not going to be his MVP year. J.J. Watt has been good this year, freakishly good, his teams defense? Not so much. Despite Watt’s unbelievable play, his defense ranks 27th in the NFL, giving up the 3rd most points per game in the league and allowing the 4th most yards. There are 10 other guys on that defense who are likely the ones pulling the Houston defense down, but even the Associated Press will see this one, Watt just isn’t deserving of the award. So Aaron Rodgers will walk away from this season with his 2nd MVP award. Please don’t misinterpret my tone for me thinking that Rodgers hasn’t been great this season. He has been nothing short of unbelievable all season long, and is more than deserving of the OPOY award, I’m just not sure he really is the league’s most valuable player. But that’s just how it is in American sports, the Most Valuable Player, in actuality, is the best player. At least it’s better than Europe’s way of figuring it out…Right?
By Eli Lederman
On Thanksgiving afternoon, in what was supposed to be another NFC East slugfest between two teams atop the division, the Philadelphia Eagles dismantled the Dallas Cowboys to take sole possession of first place in the division. Cowboys Quarterback Tony Romo put on one of his best Choke-star performances yet, handing the game to the Eagles with 2 interceptions and just 18 completions. In the midst of a post-Thanksgiving food coma, I sat and watched another pseudo-NFL MVP candidate shoot himself in the foot.
That’s what this NFL season has been all about. Tony Romo is by the no means the first MVP candidate to blow the opportunity to win the MVP, nor is he the best. Just about every candidate has something going against him; Ben Roethlisberger can’t stay consistent or win away from Heinz Field, Andrew Luck has yet to beat a good team all year, Peyton Manning just isn’t quite as good as he was last year, and you can’t give the MVP to a guy whose team is already talking about letting him go at the end of the year (Cowboys Running Back DeMarco Murray).
So this is where we’re at with the NFL MVP race right now. We have absolutely no idea who is going to step up over the final 4 weeks of the season to earn the award. Part of the dilemma in trying to assess who should get the award, may be in our definition of the award. The problem is that there isn’t one. Most. Valuable. Player. What does it mean?
I know, you’ve heard this conversation a million times. Every single year toward the end of the season, really in all 4 of America’s major sports, people begin wondering about who should win the MVP. Then the conversation spirals into what the MVP award really means; is it the best player, or is it player who means the most to his team? Somewhere in between? A half-baked formula some guy came up with in his basement? There is no concrete definition for the award. We are a country of sports fans without a real criterion for our most prestigious individual award.
Europe? Well they have it figured out. As the world’s most popular sport, soccer’s MVP award, FIFA’s Ballon d'Or, is the most prominent and celebrated sports award in the world. While the award is voted upon by players, coaches, and journalists from around the world, FIFA’s president, who is supposed to take the voting into consideration, makes the final decision. Despite that, it is a well-known fact that the president’s decision on the award tends to be driven more by politics off the field, than play on it. In other words, it matters more which player had the president over for a barbeque this past summer than it does that another player led his team to a champions league title while leading his league in scoring.
The sentiment that the award is one more of politics than of performance was once again the topic of conversation in the soccer world last week as Bayern Munich star Franck Ribéry raised the issue in an interview with Bild, a German newspaper. Ribéry told Bild,
“I learned a lot during last year's Ballon d'Or gala. As soon as I got there, I told my wife that I would lose. I saw how Sepp Blatter was hugging Ronaldo and how his entire family was there. I'm not stupid. It was clear that he had to win it. He wouldn't have brought his entire family with him otherwise… But I fear it will be about politics again. The Ballon d'Or is no longer for the best player. It's all about politics. Fabio Cannavaro won it in 2006 because he won the World Cup, that's all. I don't miss the Ballon d'Or. I am not jealous because this award doesn't mean anything to me any more. I am happy with what I have in Munich.”
I never told you that Europe had it down perfectly; I just told you that they had their MVP award figured out. If any of you want to win Ballon d’Or 2015, just invite FIFA president Sepp Blatter over for a few drinks, laugh at a few of his jokes, tell him he’s totally competent and qualified for the position he holds, and there you go, you should be in.
All right, so back to America and our own MVP challenges. First let’s go to the MLB. Baseball actually seems to have the most sense making MVP deciding factors, a result of the way the sport, unlike most, can be pretty well assessed just by looking at statistics. But of course, just like with every other MVP award in the other major sports, it could never be that easy.
This year, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw won both the NL Cy Young award, (given to the league’s best pitcher) and the NL MVP, an award typically reserved for everyday players. There was an immediate negative reaction to the decision to award the MVP to a pitcher, as many people believe that the Most Valuable Player has to play every day, not just every fifth. As a fan, I tend to agree with that, for the most part. An outfielder who goes out everyday, plays average defense, hits above .280, drives in 100+ runs and hits 25+ home runs, trumps just about any pitching performance in any given year. But this past year, with just one player, Giancarlo Stanton, fitting that description, it became a little more shaky. Throw in a truly historic pitching performance from Clayton Kershaw in which he went 21-3 with an ERA of 1.77, 198.1 innings pitched and 239 strikeouts, and it was pretty much 50/50. Like I told you, I am usually opposed to giving the MVP to a pitcher, a player who only has an effect on his team every fifth day. The difference this year was that Clayton Kershaw, with his almost freak like consistency and brilliance on the mound, in fact affected his team on 3 of the 5 days.
Here’s how it worked: the day before a Kershaw start, Dodgers manager Don Matingly was able to fully utilize his bullpen, knowing that he could rely on Kershaw for at least 7 innings the next day. The next day, Kershaw had his obvious effect on the team, throwing out great performance after great performance, making it easy on his team to win games. The day after a Kershaw start, Matingly once again had his full bullpen at his disposal, having been able to rest a majority of the bullpen the day before.
Very rarely is a pitcher deserving of the MVP award, but this time, I think the Baseball Writers of America got it right. Typically the pitcher who comes closest to winning the MVP, usually at best 8th or 9th in voting behind everyday position players, wins the Cy Young award, the award reserved just for pitchers. But when a pitcher is able to put together a seriously historic season statistically, and dominate his opponents the way that Clayton Kershaw was able to, that player is deserving of the MVP award, even over players who play everyday.
Unlike the MLB-where the way the MVP is determined is somewhat reasonable-the NFL’s MVP determination makes zero sense. Well… fine, that’s not quite fair. It does make sense, in that there is the consistent theme of the best quarterback getting the award. That goes along with the rest of the national MVP landscape, and would be a totally fair thing if not for the fact that the NFL actually has two very similar, yet very different awards. Along with the MVP award, the NFL also hands out the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award. This idea is great, right? It allows for there to be recognition of the leagues best player, with the OPOY award, while the player who is most valuable to his team gets recognized for the great effect he has on his team. That would make too much sense. While the system is set up for that to be the case, the execution from the league is not there.
More often than not, at the end of the season during the NFL’s over-hyped, totally unnecessary awards show, the MVP and OPOY go to the same player. While there are definitely cases in which the OPOY is also the MVP, the player who wins the OPOY should not automatically be anointed MVP as he so often is. Is the running back who rushes for 1,500+ yards on a 4-12 team really more valuable to his team than the quarterback who wills his team to an 11-5 record and a playoff appearance?
The NFL really isn’t very far off from perfecting its end of season honors, especially with separate awards recognizing two different things already in place. The NFL needs to set forth definitive criteria for both awards, defining what each one entails; the OPOY being given the most outstanding offensive player in the league, and the MVP going to the player who is most valuable to his team. Unfortunately, right now, this is the least of the NFL’s worries as they continue to deal with one PR nightmare after another. Maybe the league’s management should just leave the award alone, they’d figure out some way to mess it up, right?
All right, we’re 1,500 words in, I need to get to the point. For me, the MVP award should go to the most valuable player, not necessarily the player who puts up the best stats-that’s what the OPOY award is for. There are plenty of players who can put on impeccable performances every season, but very few who truly transcend the game and have innumerable, intangible effects on their team. So who do I think should win the MVP? How about Marshawn Lynch in Seattle? With Russell Wilson and the rest of the defending champs struggling to defend their title, Lynch has accounted for 30% of his teams’ touchdowns and has carried their offense to 8 wins to this point. Others? How about Calvin Johnson or Rob Gronkowski? Neither one is putting up the historic statistics they have in the past, but that doesn’t mean they are no longer having a serious impact on their teams. Along with being the two surest receptions in football-these guys are nearly impossible to defend-they also demand more attention than any other player in the NFL. When these guys are on the field, they almost automatically require a double team at the very least, opening up the field for the other receivers on the team, making it easier for their quarterbacks to make plays. So even when Megatron and Gronk aren’t putting up big numbers in a game, they are still having a substantial effect on the game and their teams. What about the Dallas Cowboys offensive-line? Can we please just give it to an entire unit, just this once? Probably the most deserving of the award of anyone, the Dallas Cowboys offense line has completely transformed the Cowboys from an average team, to a team that could actually compete in the NFC. The Cowboys offense has always had the tools, a competent quarterback, well…okay sure… in Tony Romo, an all-pro running back in DeMarco, and a top 3 receiver in Dez Bryant, but it has never quite clicked for them. This season, with the addition of rookie lineman Zack Martin, the Dallas O-line has become the league’s best and has propelled them to new heights.
So who will be the player that actually receives the award on Super Bowl weekend in Glendale 2 months from now? As much as I'd like it to be, it won't be the Cowboys O-line, or Gronk, or any other player who has had an immense, yet maybe understated, effect on his team. It's going to go the leagues best player. At this point, it's pretty much a two horse race between Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Texans defensive end J.J. Watt. And in the end, the Associated Press will have no other choice but to give the award to Rodgers. Although Watt has had one of the greatest defensive seasons of all-time, he won’t win the MVP. He’ll walk away from this season with another Defensive Player of the Year award, but this year is not going to be his MVP year. J.J. Watt has been good this year, freakishly good, his teams defense? Not so much. Despite Watt’s unbelievable play, his defense ranks 27th in the NFL, giving up the 3rd most points per game in the league and allowing the 4th most yards. There are 10 other guys on that defense who are likely the ones pulling the Houston defense down, but even the Associated Press will see this one, Watt just isn’t deserving of the award. So Aaron Rodgers will walk away from this season with his 2nd MVP award. Please don’t misinterpret my tone for me thinking that Rodgers hasn’t been great this season. He has been nothing short of unbelievable all season long, and is more than deserving of the OPOY award, I’m just not sure he really is the league’s most valuable player. But that’s just how it is in American sports, the Most Valuable Player, in actuality, is the best player. At least it’s better than Europe’s way of figuring it out…Right?
November 23rd 2014
By Eli Lederman
*Dramatic ESPN 30 for 30 narrator voice*
“What if I told you that there was a professional sports league where the people who ran it, slanted the game? That the players on defense, weren’t getting any. That Darrelle Revis was called for pass interference, just for breathing on a receiver. That one of the hardest things to do in the sport, had suddenly become easy. What if I told you that the NFL had an offense problem?”
A little bit melodramatic? Yeah probably. Please, bear with me.
The NFL has provided us with a lot this season. Not only has it taught us more about our country’s legal system than anyone without a J.D. had previously known, it has also revealed to us qualities like tone-deafness (NFL executives who shall nameless), mediocrity (Oakland Raiders) and Robert Griffin III’s innate ability to alienate himself from the rest of his team while ruining his teams harmony in the process. Of course, there is that other big thing… oh right, the actual play on the field, which per usual, has been wildly entertaining, mindboggling and excruciating, all at the same time. But above all, the aspect of this season that has stood out the most has been scoring.
In the past 5 years, there has been a rapid increase in scoring, and offensive production. Since 2010, the NFL has set a new average points per game (PPG) record in all five seasons, eclipsing 22.0 PPG in each and increasing from 22.0 PPG in 2010 to 23.4 PPG in 2014, the highest PPG in the Super Bowl Era. To put it even more into perspective, if you exclude the NFL’s bottom half, the league’s top 16 teams put up an average of 26.7 PPG in 2013, up from 21.9 PPG from the top half teams in 2003. In that same 10-year span, offenses have gone from averaging 318.3 offensive yards per game (YPG) to averaging 352.7 YPG. Beginning with Kurt Warner’s “Greatest Show on Turf” Ram’s teams around the turn of the century, and continuing into the early 2000’s with quarterbacks like Brett Favre, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, this offensive boom has provided the NFL with a golden era of exciting offensive football that shows no sign of stopping anytime soon.
So what happened? What turned the NFL from the run oriented, defense driven, league it once was, into the pass heavy, high scoring, league of today? Ultimately, the transformation comes down to two things.
The first piece of the transformation was the influx of good, to great, quarterbacks who entered the NFL over the same 15-year span in which offensive coordinators finally began to create creative passing schemes. This fantastic stroke of luck has allowed average quarterbacks to amass historically impressive stats, as well as look far more talented than they actually are, and has been the savior for otherwise mediocre quarterbacks. In 1979, NFL offensive play calling was predominantly run oriented, with 52% of all offensive plays being running plays. 35 years and 3 Manning’s later, over 57% of plays run so far in 2014 have been passing plays. This increase in passing has led to both better stats, and higher scores. In 2013, the average NFL quarterback threw for 4,206.25 yards and 29.7 touchdowns, In 1979, the average quarterback threw for 3,207.30 yards and 22.2 touchdowns, with no quarterback throwing more than 30 TD’s. This offensive explosion has allowed for middling quarterbacks to put up great offensive numbers, and has allowed them to earn absurd contracts that pay them for their stats, and not their real value, yes, we’re looking at you Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers.
The outburst of offense has also led to an increase in points scored. Through 11 games this season, there have been 21 games where teams have scored 40+ points, and 4 games in which offenses were able to drop 50+ points on their opponents. Back when the league was dominated by the run, teams would put together long drives of four or five first downs as they burnt clock on their way to the end zone, in today’s NFL, teams who pass the ball can put together four play, 80-yard scoring drives, leaving more time on the clock, and more opportunity to do just the same on the next drive.
So, the blind eye would likely look at all of this information and tell you that defenses had gotten worse over the past 35 years right? Not quite, today’s game still includes plenty of dominant defenses and defensive players who are fully capable of shutting down NFL offenses…well sort of.
NFL defenses do still possess the ability to stop opposing offenses; the rules just don’t allow them to.
In 2010, the NFL introduced a new set of rules that were meant to protect offensive players from concussions by penalizing hits to defenseless receivers. During the next few years, new rules were added, and existing ones were tweaked, all for the sake of concussion prevention. These rules offended no one, as all they did was penalize 220+pound men who drilled defenseless receivers at full speed. As long as it was for the sake of concussion prevention, people could deal with it.
This season, NFL Dictato… Commissioner Roger Goodell presented the league with a new set of penalties that included illegal contact, defensive holding and illegal use of the hands. The 3 new penalties have left defenders with very few options in defending a receiver, allowing those receivers to take advantage of the less physical coverage and other extra luxuries that the new regulations have granted them. Through the first 11 weeks of this season, defensive holding, followed by illegal contact, rank numbers 1 and 2 as the most frequently called penalties in the NFL. And how could they not be? They only penalize defenders for doing what every defender ever has done in order to cover a receiver.
Prior to the introduction of these new game parameters, most penalties were put in place to maintain player safety and to keep gameplay fair. These new rules are different; they don’t protect anyone from concussions, or take away any sort of unfair advantage that the defense had, they were put in strictly for offense. This is the second reason for the league’s offensive explosion, and it is certainly the more troubling reason.
The NFL, and everyone else for that matter, knows that the best aspect of the sport of football is offense. Everyone loves to watch high speed, fast paced, air-it-out football, and fortunately that’s the direction football has gone in. The transformation from a running league to a passing league, as we saw before, has been natural, with different offensive schemes and better quarterbacks coming through the league. But now the NFL is trying to artificially aid this transformation even further. The addition of these new rules by the league has done nothing but allow receivers to get separation from defenders and/or (usually both) draw a penalty for nothing more than a jersey tug. The issue here is not that rules were changed, as the sport evolves, so must the rules, there is no problem with that. The issue is that the league made rule changes, not out of any sort of desperation to maintain player safety or anything, but for the inflation of offensive numbers and scores.
This offensive explosion will have some major ramifications for the NFL down the road, not like it hasn’t already. One of the NFL’s biggest issues is that in regard to history, it just doesn’t stack up when compared to the histories of the MLB and the NBA. The one thing, history wise, that the league has had going for it, is their quarterbacks.
The fables of Unitas and Starr in the 60’s, Bradshaw and Staubach in the 70’s, Marino and Montana in the 80’s, Young and Elway in the 90’s, and now Brady and Manning in the 2000’s, are the cornerstones of NFL history. Unfortunately, these hallowed legends have their reputations diminished almost every week during the NFL season. Each time a quarterback effortlessly throws for 5 touchdowns in one game because the league’s new rules allow them to, the NFL is essentially fertilizing the reputations of its most storied legends. By the end of their careers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will be two of the most celebrated NFL players of all-time. But not long after their exit from the league, their records will be broken by a middling quarterback whose name we don’t even know yet. That’s the problem, the quarterbacks of tomorrow, who will most definitely break the records of the quarterbacks of today and yesterday, won’t necessarily be better. I have watched Brady and Manning perform at the highest level for my entire life. I can tell you that there have been, and will be, few others who are better than those two. But we can already see that history, at least statistically, won’t tell us that for long
We’ve already seen good quarterbacks like Matt Stafford reach statistical heights that great quarterbacks from 20 years before never even came close to. And that occurred before the new rules. There is no reason not to believe that Andrew Luck may some day throw for 6,000 yards in a season, or throw 60+ touchdowns in that same season. The way the league is moving, and the way the league’s management so obviously wants more and more offense, there is nothing that will stop future quarterbacks, even as many of them likely will not be as skilled or talented as forbearers, from shattering the records of today, and dwarfing the greatest quarterbacks in history, in the process.
Statistics courtesy of:
Pro-Football-Reference.com
Footballoutsiders.com
NFLfootballstats.com
By Eli Lederman
*Dramatic ESPN 30 for 30 narrator voice*
“What if I told you that there was a professional sports league where the people who ran it, slanted the game? That the players on defense, weren’t getting any. That Darrelle Revis was called for pass interference, just for breathing on a receiver. That one of the hardest things to do in the sport, had suddenly become easy. What if I told you that the NFL had an offense problem?”
A little bit melodramatic? Yeah probably. Please, bear with me.
The NFL has provided us with a lot this season. Not only has it taught us more about our country’s legal system than anyone without a J.D. had previously known, it has also revealed to us qualities like tone-deafness (NFL executives who shall nameless), mediocrity (Oakland Raiders) and Robert Griffin III’s innate ability to alienate himself from the rest of his team while ruining his teams harmony in the process. Of course, there is that other big thing… oh right, the actual play on the field, which per usual, has been wildly entertaining, mindboggling and excruciating, all at the same time. But above all, the aspect of this season that has stood out the most has been scoring.
In the past 5 years, there has been a rapid increase in scoring, and offensive production. Since 2010, the NFL has set a new average points per game (PPG) record in all five seasons, eclipsing 22.0 PPG in each and increasing from 22.0 PPG in 2010 to 23.4 PPG in 2014, the highest PPG in the Super Bowl Era. To put it even more into perspective, if you exclude the NFL’s bottom half, the league’s top 16 teams put up an average of 26.7 PPG in 2013, up from 21.9 PPG from the top half teams in 2003. In that same 10-year span, offenses have gone from averaging 318.3 offensive yards per game (YPG) to averaging 352.7 YPG. Beginning with Kurt Warner’s “Greatest Show on Turf” Ram’s teams around the turn of the century, and continuing into the early 2000’s with quarterbacks like Brett Favre, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, this offensive boom has provided the NFL with a golden era of exciting offensive football that shows no sign of stopping anytime soon.
So what happened? What turned the NFL from the run oriented, defense driven, league it once was, into the pass heavy, high scoring, league of today? Ultimately, the transformation comes down to two things.
The first piece of the transformation was the influx of good, to great, quarterbacks who entered the NFL over the same 15-year span in which offensive coordinators finally began to create creative passing schemes. This fantastic stroke of luck has allowed average quarterbacks to amass historically impressive stats, as well as look far more talented than they actually are, and has been the savior for otherwise mediocre quarterbacks. In 1979, NFL offensive play calling was predominantly run oriented, with 52% of all offensive plays being running plays. 35 years and 3 Manning’s later, over 57% of plays run so far in 2014 have been passing plays. This increase in passing has led to both better stats, and higher scores. In 2013, the average NFL quarterback threw for 4,206.25 yards and 29.7 touchdowns, In 1979, the average quarterback threw for 3,207.30 yards and 22.2 touchdowns, with no quarterback throwing more than 30 TD’s. This offensive explosion has allowed for middling quarterbacks to put up great offensive numbers, and has allowed them to earn absurd contracts that pay them for their stats, and not their real value, yes, we’re looking at you Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers.
The outburst of offense has also led to an increase in points scored. Through 11 games this season, there have been 21 games where teams have scored 40+ points, and 4 games in which offenses were able to drop 50+ points on their opponents. Back when the league was dominated by the run, teams would put together long drives of four or five first downs as they burnt clock on their way to the end zone, in today’s NFL, teams who pass the ball can put together four play, 80-yard scoring drives, leaving more time on the clock, and more opportunity to do just the same on the next drive.
So, the blind eye would likely look at all of this information and tell you that defenses had gotten worse over the past 35 years right? Not quite, today’s game still includes plenty of dominant defenses and defensive players who are fully capable of shutting down NFL offenses…well sort of.
NFL defenses do still possess the ability to stop opposing offenses; the rules just don’t allow them to.
In 2010, the NFL introduced a new set of rules that were meant to protect offensive players from concussions by penalizing hits to defenseless receivers. During the next few years, new rules were added, and existing ones were tweaked, all for the sake of concussion prevention. These rules offended no one, as all they did was penalize 220+pound men who drilled defenseless receivers at full speed. As long as it was for the sake of concussion prevention, people could deal with it.
This season, NFL Dictato… Commissioner Roger Goodell presented the league with a new set of penalties that included illegal contact, defensive holding and illegal use of the hands. The 3 new penalties have left defenders with very few options in defending a receiver, allowing those receivers to take advantage of the less physical coverage and other extra luxuries that the new regulations have granted them. Through the first 11 weeks of this season, defensive holding, followed by illegal contact, rank numbers 1 and 2 as the most frequently called penalties in the NFL. And how could they not be? They only penalize defenders for doing what every defender ever has done in order to cover a receiver.
Prior to the introduction of these new game parameters, most penalties were put in place to maintain player safety and to keep gameplay fair. These new rules are different; they don’t protect anyone from concussions, or take away any sort of unfair advantage that the defense had, they were put in strictly for offense. This is the second reason for the league’s offensive explosion, and it is certainly the more troubling reason.
The NFL, and everyone else for that matter, knows that the best aspect of the sport of football is offense. Everyone loves to watch high speed, fast paced, air-it-out football, and fortunately that’s the direction football has gone in. The transformation from a running league to a passing league, as we saw before, has been natural, with different offensive schemes and better quarterbacks coming through the league. But now the NFL is trying to artificially aid this transformation even further. The addition of these new rules by the league has done nothing but allow receivers to get separation from defenders and/or (usually both) draw a penalty for nothing more than a jersey tug. The issue here is not that rules were changed, as the sport evolves, so must the rules, there is no problem with that. The issue is that the league made rule changes, not out of any sort of desperation to maintain player safety or anything, but for the inflation of offensive numbers and scores.
This offensive explosion will have some major ramifications for the NFL down the road, not like it hasn’t already. One of the NFL’s biggest issues is that in regard to history, it just doesn’t stack up when compared to the histories of the MLB and the NBA. The one thing, history wise, that the league has had going for it, is their quarterbacks.
The fables of Unitas and Starr in the 60’s, Bradshaw and Staubach in the 70’s, Marino and Montana in the 80’s, Young and Elway in the 90’s, and now Brady and Manning in the 2000’s, are the cornerstones of NFL history. Unfortunately, these hallowed legends have their reputations diminished almost every week during the NFL season. Each time a quarterback effortlessly throws for 5 touchdowns in one game because the league’s new rules allow them to, the NFL is essentially fertilizing the reputations of its most storied legends. By the end of their careers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will be two of the most celebrated NFL players of all-time. But not long after their exit from the league, their records will be broken by a middling quarterback whose name we don’t even know yet. That’s the problem, the quarterbacks of tomorrow, who will most definitely break the records of the quarterbacks of today and yesterday, won’t necessarily be better. I have watched Brady and Manning perform at the highest level for my entire life. I can tell you that there have been, and will be, few others who are better than those two. But we can already see that history, at least statistically, won’t tell us that for long
We’ve already seen good quarterbacks like Matt Stafford reach statistical heights that great quarterbacks from 20 years before never even came close to. And that occurred before the new rules. There is no reason not to believe that Andrew Luck may some day throw for 6,000 yards in a season, or throw 60+ touchdowns in that same season. The way the league is moving, and the way the league’s management so obviously wants more and more offense, there is nothing that will stop future quarterbacks, even as many of them likely will not be as skilled or talented as forbearers, from shattering the records of today, and dwarfing the greatest quarterbacks in history, in the process.
Statistics courtesy of:
Pro-Football-Reference.com
Footballoutsiders.com
NFLfootballstats.com
November 9th 2014
By Eli Lederman
So remember five years ago when LeBron James was a free agent for the first time? He had just led his team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, to the best record in the NBA and the top seed in the playoffs. Basketball was huge in Cleveland again and LeBron fever was running as high as ever. At age 25, LeBron had just put up his best statistical season to that point, averaging 29.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 8.6 APG en route to his 2nd MVP award. Then in the second round of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, the eventual Eastern Conference Champs, the Boston Celtics, eliminated the top-seeded Cavs, adding fuel to the LeBron free agency fire. I remember watching LeBron walk off the court that night after the Cavs game 6 loss. I recall thinking in my mind that there was no way that this guy was staying in Cleveland. LeBron was done carrying a team on his own for 82-100 games a season. He had had enough of having to be the guy night in and night out with nothing more than some spare parts around him. LeBron was done with Cleveland, and LeBron was a free agent.
So naturally, just like every other time that the player of the century was a free agent-you know, all zero times- just about every team in the league was interested in acquiring LeBron. Not only did everyone want him, everyone thought they were going to get him. Cleveland fans were still of the deranged belief that LeBron would never leave his home town team, and that he was destined to deliver the city of Cleveland the championship that had eluded them for the past 50 years. Knicks fans were hoping, as they always are, that New York City and Madison Garden would finally attract a star to their team. Chicago fans believed they were destined to have the second coming of Jordan in Chicago to deliver another series of championships. Every single team and fan base that was in pursuit of LeBron had a reason for why their team was the only logical place for him. Then LeBron made his infamous decision on an ESPN special with Jim Gray, a man who is the antithesis of infamous, and as a result, LeBron became the most polarizing athlete in America.
LeBron ditched Cleveland for the warm weather of South Beach to team up with two of the NBA’s other biggest stars, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, on the Miami Heat (no, that’s not a typo, Wade’s name is spelled with the “Y” coming before the “A”). The move itself, at least in the eyes of someone who saw it as a basketball decision, was not the crime that made LeBron the most loved/hated athlete in America. It was the appearance of collusion, with James and Wade having dined together just a few days before the Decision was made and the subsequent pep rally where LeBron made his ill-famed “Not one, not two, not three, not four…” comments in regards to how many championships the Heat would win, that made us all hiss at LeBron’s ego and take shots at his maturity. The Miami era of LeBron’s career went almost exactly as he had planned-he finally got to play with some real talent, won a couple more MVP’s, and finally got that ring-two in fact-that he had been craving.
Now, 5 years, two MVP awards, four Finals appearances, and 6 different hairlines later, LeBron is back in Cleveland.
Let’s go back to the year 1988. Larry Bird was coming off the greatest statistical season of his career, and despite his team missing the NBA Finals for the first time in 5 years; he looked as good as ever. This was before the debilitating back injuries hit Larry Legend like a brick wall, bringing a sudden end to his career. In 1988, Larry Bird was still Larry Bird. But even so, during the summer of 1988, Celtics President, basketball legend Red Auerbach, known for his shrewd moves, entertained the idea of, and nearly executed, a trade of his star player, Larry Bird.
This was a different time. Back then; Larry Bird was making a shade under two million dollars per year, and that salary was on the high end of the spectrum for NBA players. You see, this was still the era where coaches and general managers were still in control. Nowadays, NBA teams, especially those who are reliant on their stars (which teams aren’t?), would do almost anything to keep them around. The fact that one of the five best players in NBA history ever had any fear about job security with his team seems ridiculous, but it is indicative of how things were back then. Stars were not in control. They couldn’t swing big trades to bolster the line-up around them, or hold out for more money. Money was actually a big part of it. With relatively small amounts of money going to star players, the teams didn’t have to worry about how the stars felt. In 1988, unhappy star X, who wanted more money, might cost his team a few games and more than likely some team chemistry, but without a lot of money tied into one player, teams didn’t really have to concern themselves with what these guys felt.
That was then. Today, the NBA is a league of stars, run by the stars. Don’t be deceived by the facades that are GM’s and team presidents, if a team has a star, and trust me, the teams that don’t have one wish they did, that star rules the front office to whatever extent he desires. In 2014, K̶o̶b̶e̶ B̶r̶y̶a̶n̶t̶ J̶o̶s̶h̶ S̶m̶i̶t̶h̶ D̶w̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ H̶o̶w̶a̶r̶d̶ Star X who is making absurd amounts of money, has a lot of sway with his front office, even if he isn’t performing at the level to which his salary says he should. In a league where you seemingly cannot win without a star, teams have a lot more at risk when dealing with their most coveted and highly paid players than they did 25 years ago.
Since the mid-1990’s, players have been gaining more and more control in the NBA. It began in the mid 1990’s with a group of players right out of college and high school, deemed the Too Much, Too Soon generation by Grantland’s Bill Simmons, who were paid way to much during the overexpansion and general terribleness of the NBA during that time period. Since that time, player salaries have sky rocketed, and as their salaries have risen, so has the power they wield.
The current peak of this meteoric surge in player influence can now be seen each summer during NBA free agency. And for that, we only have one man to thank.
LeBron James.
When LeBron signed in Miami five years ago, teaming up with other two other stars in order to form a big three, he revolutionized NBA free agency. We had seen big 3’s in the NBA before; from the Lakers with Wilt Chamberlain-Jerry West-Elgin in the early 70’s, to the Celtics with Larry Bird-Kevin McHale-Robert Parrish in the 80’s, and most recently Miami’s trio of LeBron-Wade-Bosh, big 3’s are nothing new. It’s the way that LeBron’s big 3 was formed that is. In the past, all of the big 3’s were put together either through the draft or via trade. The two most recent examples being the Spurs and the Celtics, the Spurs building their organization around the triumvirate of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, all three of whom were drafted by the organization. The Celtics built their big 3 by trading for two stars, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, to compliment with their existing star, Paul Pierce. What LeBron did in 2010 changed everything. Never before had three players colluded in order to play on the same team. Wade, who was already a member of the Heat, but was also a free agent, re-signed with the team. Bosh, who had previously played for the Toronto Raptors, agreed to sign with Miami the morning of July 8th 2010. The night of July 8th 2010 was the night in which LeBron sat in that Greenwich, Connecticut Boys & Girls Club with Jim Gray and declared that he was taking his talents to South Beach.
What made that decision so significant, past the immediate effect it had on the NBA and the teams and players involved, was that it signified the full transference of power from management to the players. On that night it was over. LeBron and the Heat set a precedent that night that told us that personnel moves would be dominated not by those whose job it was to make them, but by the personnel themselves. This sentiment was only reaffirmed this past July when LeBron not only returned to the Cavaliers-you know the team and fanbase that cursed his name and burned his jersey-but in the process swung a mega-deal that landed his team with all-star Power Forward Kevin Love. Once again, a big name free agent, albeit the same big name free agent, was able to manipulate another league swaying deal in order to form a big 3.
The interesting thing about this now is going to be watching the next big name free agent, whether it’s Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis or some star we don’t know yet, and how he is able to continue this trend, and maybe even advance it further to points we not yet even considered. What we do know is that the precedent has been set for every NBA star who is entering free agency that they have the ability to take control of their situation and shape it to their liking.
Regardless of how star dominated the NBA does become, Basketball will always be a team game, won by teams, not single players, the Spurs taught us that last spring when they took down LeBron and the Heat in the NBA Finals. But just because basketball is a team game, doesn’t mean that we will ever stop stargazing and wishing and hoping for stars. And until stars are no longer a commodity in the NBA, which won’t be anytime soon, we will continue to see more and more of these ridiculous joining’s of forces. And if the past 25 years have been any indication, the revolution won’t stop here. Who knows, maybe 15 years from now we will see a free agent convince James Dolan to sell the Knicks so he’ll sign there… No, it won’t get that bad. Sorry Knicks fans, in the words of Michael ‘Squints’ Palledorous, you’ll be stuck with James Dolan, FOR-EV-ER…
What we can definitively say at this point is that NBA free agency will never be the same. LeBron James has singlehandedly turned free agency into a star run process in which these stars have GM’s and owners running all over the place trying to cater to player demands in order to sign them. Now, don’t expect this to happen the next time a quasi-star like Lance Stephenson or Eric Bledsoe becomes a free agent. But the way things are going, that doesn’t seem too far off. It’s going to be extremely interesting to watch in a few years when superstars like Kevin Durant and Blake Griffin get their first taste of free agency. When they go through that process, they will understand just how easy it has become to be an NBA free agent. And for that, they will have LeBron James, the man who revolutionized NBA free agency, to thank.
By Eli Lederman
So remember five years ago when LeBron James was a free agent for the first time? He had just led his team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, to the best record in the NBA and the top seed in the playoffs. Basketball was huge in Cleveland again and LeBron fever was running as high as ever. At age 25, LeBron had just put up his best statistical season to that point, averaging 29.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 8.6 APG en route to his 2nd MVP award. Then in the second round of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, the eventual Eastern Conference Champs, the Boston Celtics, eliminated the top-seeded Cavs, adding fuel to the LeBron free agency fire. I remember watching LeBron walk off the court that night after the Cavs game 6 loss. I recall thinking in my mind that there was no way that this guy was staying in Cleveland. LeBron was done carrying a team on his own for 82-100 games a season. He had had enough of having to be the guy night in and night out with nothing more than some spare parts around him. LeBron was done with Cleveland, and LeBron was a free agent.
So naturally, just like every other time that the player of the century was a free agent-you know, all zero times- just about every team in the league was interested in acquiring LeBron. Not only did everyone want him, everyone thought they were going to get him. Cleveland fans were still of the deranged belief that LeBron would never leave his home town team, and that he was destined to deliver the city of Cleveland the championship that had eluded them for the past 50 years. Knicks fans were hoping, as they always are, that New York City and Madison Garden would finally attract a star to their team. Chicago fans believed they were destined to have the second coming of Jordan in Chicago to deliver another series of championships. Every single team and fan base that was in pursuit of LeBron had a reason for why their team was the only logical place for him. Then LeBron made his infamous decision on an ESPN special with Jim Gray, a man who is the antithesis of infamous, and as a result, LeBron became the most polarizing athlete in America.
LeBron ditched Cleveland for the warm weather of South Beach to team up with two of the NBA’s other biggest stars, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, on the Miami Heat (no, that’s not a typo, Wade’s name is spelled with the “Y” coming before the “A”). The move itself, at least in the eyes of someone who saw it as a basketball decision, was not the crime that made LeBron the most loved/hated athlete in America. It was the appearance of collusion, with James and Wade having dined together just a few days before the Decision was made and the subsequent pep rally where LeBron made his ill-famed “Not one, not two, not three, not four…” comments in regards to how many championships the Heat would win, that made us all hiss at LeBron’s ego and take shots at his maturity. The Miami era of LeBron’s career went almost exactly as he had planned-he finally got to play with some real talent, won a couple more MVP’s, and finally got that ring-two in fact-that he had been craving.
Now, 5 years, two MVP awards, four Finals appearances, and 6 different hairlines later, LeBron is back in Cleveland.
Let’s go back to the year 1988. Larry Bird was coming off the greatest statistical season of his career, and despite his team missing the NBA Finals for the first time in 5 years; he looked as good as ever. This was before the debilitating back injuries hit Larry Legend like a brick wall, bringing a sudden end to his career. In 1988, Larry Bird was still Larry Bird. But even so, during the summer of 1988, Celtics President, basketball legend Red Auerbach, known for his shrewd moves, entertained the idea of, and nearly executed, a trade of his star player, Larry Bird.
This was a different time. Back then; Larry Bird was making a shade under two million dollars per year, and that salary was on the high end of the spectrum for NBA players. You see, this was still the era where coaches and general managers were still in control. Nowadays, NBA teams, especially those who are reliant on their stars (which teams aren’t?), would do almost anything to keep them around. The fact that one of the five best players in NBA history ever had any fear about job security with his team seems ridiculous, but it is indicative of how things were back then. Stars were not in control. They couldn’t swing big trades to bolster the line-up around them, or hold out for more money. Money was actually a big part of it. With relatively small amounts of money going to star players, the teams didn’t have to worry about how the stars felt. In 1988, unhappy star X, who wanted more money, might cost his team a few games and more than likely some team chemistry, but without a lot of money tied into one player, teams didn’t really have to concern themselves with what these guys felt.
That was then. Today, the NBA is a league of stars, run by the stars. Don’t be deceived by the facades that are GM’s and team presidents, if a team has a star, and trust me, the teams that don’t have one wish they did, that star rules the front office to whatever extent he desires. In 2014, K̶o̶b̶e̶ B̶r̶y̶a̶n̶t̶ J̶o̶s̶h̶ S̶m̶i̶t̶h̶ D̶w̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ H̶o̶w̶a̶r̶d̶ Star X who is making absurd amounts of money, has a lot of sway with his front office, even if he isn’t performing at the level to which his salary says he should. In a league where you seemingly cannot win without a star, teams have a lot more at risk when dealing with their most coveted and highly paid players than they did 25 years ago.
Since the mid-1990’s, players have been gaining more and more control in the NBA. It began in the mid 1990’s with a group of players right out of college and high school, deemed the Too Much, Too Soon generation by Grantland’s Bill Simmons, who were paid way to much during the overexpansion and general terribleness of the NBA during that time period. Since that time, player salaries have sky rocketed, and as their salaries have risen, so has the power they wield.
The current peak of this meteoric surge in player influence can now be seen each summer during NBA free agency. And for that, we only have one man to thank.
LeBron James.
When LeBron signed in Miami five years ago, teaming up with other two other stars in order to form a big three, he revolutionized NBA free agency. We had seen big 3’s in the NBA before; from the Lakers with Wilt Chamberlain-Jerry West-Elgin in the early 70’s, to the Celtics with Larry Bird-Kevin McHale-Robert Parrish in the 80’s, and most recently Miami’s trio of LeBron-Wade-Bosh, big 3’s are nothing new. It’s the way that LeBron’s big 3 was formed that is. In the past, all of the big 3’s were put together either through the draft or via trade. The two most recent examples being the Spurs and the Celtics, the Spurs building their organization around the triumvirate of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, all three of whom were drafted by the organization. The Celtics built their big 3 by trading for two stars, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, to compliment with their existing star, Paul Pierce. What LeBron did in 2010 changed everything. Never before had three players colluded in order to play on the same team. Wade, who was already a member of the Heat, but was also a free agent, re-signed with the team. Bosh, who had previously played for the Toronto Raptors, agreed to sign with Miami the morning of July 8th 2010. The night of July 8th 2010 was the night in which LeBron sat in that Greenwich, Connecticut Boys & Girls Club with Jim Gray and declared that he was taking his talents to South Beach.
What made that decision so significant, past the immediate effect it had on the NBA and the teams and players involved, was that it signified the full transference of power from management to the players. On that night it was over. LeBron and the Heat set a precedent that night that told us that personnel moves would be dominated not by those whose job it was to make them, but by the personnel themselves. This sentiment was only reaffirmed this past July when LeBron not only returned to the Cavaliers-you know the team and fanbase that cursed his name and burned his jersey-but in the process swung a mega-deal that landed his team with all-star Power Forward Kevin Love. Once again, a big name free agent, albeit the same big name free agent, was able to manipulate another league swaying deal in order to form a big 3.
The interesting thing about this now is going to be watching the next big name free agent, whether it’s Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis or some star we don’t know yet, and how he is able to continue this trend, and maybe even advance it further to points we not yet even considered. What we do know is that the precedent has been set for every NBA star who is entering free agency that they have the ability to take control of their situation and shape it to their liking.
Regardless of how star dominated the NBA does become, Basketball will always be a team game, won by teams, not single players, the Spurs taught us that last spring when they took down LeBron and the Heat in the NBA Finals. But just because basketball is a team game, doesn’t mean that we will ever stop stargazing and wishing and hoping for stars. And until stars are no longer a commodity in the NBA, which won’t be anytime soon, we will continue to see more and more of these ridiculous joining’s of forces. And if the past 25 years have been any indication, the revolution won’t stop here. Who knows, maybe 15 years from now we will see a free agent convince James Dolan to sell the Knicks so he’ll sign there… No, it won’t get that bad. Sorry Knicks fans, in the words of Michael ‘Squints’ Palledorous, you’ll be stuck with James Dolan, FOR-EV-ER…
What we can definitively say at this point is that NBA free agency will never be the same. LeBron James has singlehandedly turned free agency into a star run process in which these stars have GM’s and owners running all over the place trying to cater to player demands in order to sign them. Now, don’t expect this to happen the next time a quasi-star like Lance Stephenson or Eric Bledsoe becomes a free agent. But the way things are going, that doesn’t seem too far off. It’s going to be extremely interesting to watch in a few years when superstars like Kevin Durant and Blake Griffin get their first taste of free agency. When they go through that process, they will understand just how easy it has become to be an NBA free agent. And for that, they will have LeBron James, the man who revolutionized NBA free agency, to thank.
October 29th 2014
By Eli Lederman
Four weeks ago, the NFL forced me to write an absurdly negative ¼ mark report. The play had been stale, with just about every team sleep walking through the first few games, and the league was dealing with one of the worst PR situations in its history. I got no joy out of ripping on the league that we all love so much. Fortunately, in the time since, the league has recovered quite nicely. The play has gotten much better, the games are more exciting and intriguing, and we are actually once again able to enjoy the NFL. The league’s rebound has given us a lot of excitement, but it has also left us with a lot to wonder about. Below are some of the most intriguing questions that will be answered over the next eight weeks, and my takes on each of them.
Are The Dallas Cowboys For Real?
In the 1/4 mark NFL article, I embarrassed myself by forecasting that the Cowboys would fall off after a hot start and end up back as just the average team that they always are. The Cowboys have not only continued their success, but have emerged as one of the leagues best teams, and appear poised to make a run at the NFC East title. Dallas has thrived on the legs of the finally healthy DeMarco Murray and its rejuvenated offensive line, all the way to top of the division. This time around, I’m not going to make the mistake of doubting the Cowboys. They have proven to me these past few weeks that they are a team with serious capabilities and that they should not be dismissed because of their past inability to finish a season. Despite losing on Monday Night Football this past week, in overtime to Washington[1], we saw that the Dallas defense is continuing to improve, watched Tony Romo look good up until he was forced out of the game after taking a knee to his surgically repaired back, and witnessed the greatness of DeMarco Murray as he continued his unreal statistical performance, with yet another 100+ yard showing.
[1] In accord with the decisions of many other journalists, I am not using the nickname of Washington DC’s football team out of respect for America’s Native American community.
This Dallas team is for real. With the offensive weapons of Murray and Dez Bryant for Romo to utilize, and a developing defense that has begun to shine as of late, the Cowboys should be able to stick around late into this season, hopefully with more success than they have in the past. It will be really interesting to see how the relatively inexperienced team will fair down the stretch against some of its tougher opponents; The Cardinals next week, two meetings against the Eagles in a three week span, and a late season test against the Colts, will give us a strong idea of what this Cowboys team is really capable of.
At 6-2, the Cowboys still have the opportunity to finish at their patented 8-8 if they just go 2-6 the rest of the way! Sorry, that’s the Cowboy hater in me coming out. So long as Tony Romo and Demarco Murray remain healthy, this team will be successful and will definitely be fighting for a playoff spot come December.
Can the Bills continue to succeed without their top 2 Running Backs?
The Bills came out this season and surprised just about everyone with their play. The immediate emergence of rookie receiver Sammy Watkins and the frightening midseason switch at the Quarterback position from E.J. Manuel to Kyle Orton, which somehow worked out, has propelled the Bills to a 5-3 record in the AFC East. But the loss of Running Backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson should have fans in Buffalo concerned about the future success of the team. While the Bills have opened the season strongly, it’s not like they have been dominating teams or anything. In three of their five wins, the Bills have won by three points or less, all coming on last second touchdowns and field goals. The loss of two of their biggest offensive producers certainly won’t aid them in the remainder of the season as they attempt to remain relevant deep into the season, a point not seen by Buffalo fans since the 1990’s. With Jackson out for at least the next five weeks, and Spiller likely done for the season, the Bills will have to rely heavily on their passing game to sustain their success. They did so, successfully I might add, this past week against the New York Jets, who literally handed the Bills the game, with six turnovers between their two quarterbacks. The heavy reliance on the passing game will certainly work against teams like the Jets, but I am interested to see how the Bills handle that challenge against the tougher teams on their schedule, especially during a stretch in December in which the Bills face the Patriots, Packers and Broncos in a span of 21 days. The Bills have surprised us thus far with their success, but I’m afraid that their magic may run out in the coming weeks as their schedule gets tougher and they begin to realize just how important it is to have a balanced offense.
Are the Seattle Seahawks in real trouble?
I was one of the few people who going into the season believed that the Seahawks would regress. They had lost valuable pieces on both sides of the ball, and I just couldn’t see them replicating what they did last season, knowing that even the best teams can suffer traces of a Super Bowl hangover. Then they came out on Thursday Night Football for the first game of the season, and decimated the Green Bay Packers, looking just as dominant as they had the season before. Seven weeks later, their record stands at 4-3 and their locker room may or may not, depending on who you ask, be on the verge of ruin. The last few weeks for the team have been very un-Seahawk like. We have seen them struggle to contain teams with what we thought was an unstoppable defense, observed as their offense has become wholly one-dimensional on the back of Russell Wilson, and have watched what seemed like such a uniquely tight and together team, appear otherwise. We’ve seen Russell Wilson’s number one target, Wide Receiver Percy Harvin, dealt to the New York Jets after he refused to play at the end of an eventual 30-23 Seattle defeat to the Dallas Cowboys, and have heard rumors that the team is “tiring” of star Running Back Marshawn Lynch’s antics, both situations adding to the locker room discord. Most importantly, we have witnessed the reigning Super Bowl champions appear weak and despondent. Even in their win last Sunday, which was preceded by two bad losses, the Seahawks could only muster 13 points.
So are the Seahawks screwed? Is this locker room tumult going to derail their entire season? The answer to both of those questions, is no. The Seahawks are going to be fine. This team is just too talented not to rebound from their current woes. With a soft spot in their schedule coming up, the Seahawks should be able to rattle off a few wins and get back on track. As for the locker room issues, I think winning should be a good remedy to that. It seems that most locker room problems appear right around the time when teams start losing games, and once teams begin winning again, those problems magically disappear. This is not to say that these troubles won’t return and force changes during the offseason, but I don’t see them causing such a problem that it ruins the entire season for the Seahawks. Although I could see Richard Sherman making a joke at the overly sensitive Marshawn Lynch right before a game, then Lynch throwing a hissy fit, forcing Head Coach Pete Carroll to awkwardly coax him into playing the game as the ball was kicked off… But overall, this team is too talented and too disciplined not to get out of this rut. So long as they start winning again, and Richard Sherman keeps his mouth shut around Marshawn Lynch, the Seattle Seahawks are going to be just fine.
Does anyone actually want to win the NFC South?
The NFC South is a complete mess. At a total of nine wins between the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the South is the only division in the NFL with a combined win count under double digits. And it’s not even just that none of the four teams are particularly good, but that these teams seem to lose (or tie) in such strange fashion. During their week five match-up in Cincinnati going up against the Bengals, the Panthers blew three red-zone opportunities and missed a close range field goal as the game went on to end in a tie, yes a tie. This past week, while playing in London, the Falcons came out firing and entered halftime with a 21-0 lead over the Detroit Lions. The Falcons then proceeded to get shutout in the second half, blowing their lead, losing 22-21 on a last second Matt Prater field goal. The teams in the NFC South don’t just lose; they lose in the saddest and most dramatic ways possible.
As it stands right now, the Panthers at 3-4-1 would represent the NFC South in the playoffs. But the way things are going; the standings in the South will shift about four, five, six or seventy-eight more times before the end of the season. So which team will be on top when all is said and done? It really does feel as though there is something toxic about that first place spot as each team is seemingly doing everything in their power not to end up at the top of the division. But someone has to end up in first place at the end of the season. We can count the Buccaneers out; at 1-6, they appear to have already packed it in for next season, evident as they shopped just about everyone on their team as the trade deadline approached on Tuesday. Last year’s breakout team, the Panthers, don’t seem to have the same fire that they possessed last season. With the defense looking shaky and Cam Newton looking lost without anyone to throw to, I don’t see the Panthers being able to put up much more of a fight than they already have. That leaves us with the Saints and Falcons. Both teams have tough schedules down the stretch, each facing several first place teams and then facing each other in week 16. The different teams that they face aren’t going to be enough to really separate the teams, but where they play them will. Both the Saints and the Falcons look like completely different teams outside of their respective domes; at home, they can beat anybody, but once they get outside, they struggle mightily. It’s a ridiculous idea, seeing as how divisions are supposed to be won by superior teams and all, but the NFC South is going to be decided by the team who has more home games down the stretch. Hence, I predict that the New Orleans Saints, playing one more home game than the Atlanta Falcons, will win the NFC South. If you’re a Saints fan, don’t get too excited reading this, I also predict the winner of the division ending up with about 8- or 9 wins, and foresee that team getting blown out in the first round of the playoffs by a Wild Card team.
Who will be the odd team out in the NFC West?
Speaking of Wild Card teams, let’s take a look at the NFC West. To me, the NFC West essentially possesses two guaranteed playoff berths; it’s teams are just that good. The West features three teams, The Seattle Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals, who are all potential playoff, and even Super Bowl contenders. Unfortunately, the way that the NFC playoff picture is shaping up, one of those teams is likely going to be on the outside looking in at the end of the season. The NFL playoffs are made up of the division winners from each of the four divisions, and two other Wild Card teams, so it’s hard for me to picture three teams from the same division each making it. The way the NFC East is developing, with the Cowboys and Eagles both looking strong, and the same occurring in the NFC North between the Packers and the Lions, one of those teams in the NFC West is going to have a tough time sneaking into the playoffs. But who is going to be the odd team out? As I spoke about before, I see the Seahawks rebounding and getting back on track. With the way Russell Wilson is playing, and the talent on their defense, there is no way that Seattle will stay quiet for long. The Seahawks will be a playoff team, whether it is through winning the division or securing a Wild Card spot. That leaves the Niners or the Cardinals to either win the division, or if Seattle wins it, to get one of the two Wild Cards. It’s a tough breakdown; both the 49ers and the Cardinals are such talented teams. Both teams face several tough match-ups late in the season, including a week seventeen meeting between the two teams that could very well decide which of the two ends up as a playoff team. The debate really comes down to experience vs. youth. The Niners possess a lot of experience, playing in all of the last three NFC Championship games. As for the Cardinals, they are the young break out team similar to last years Carolina Panthers. Although I usually go with the more experienced team, I absolutely love the Cardinals defense and I think that they will be able to outlast the Niners for that claim to the other NFC West playoff spot. It will be a shame to see the odd team out in the West not get a chance in the playoffs when a team from the NFC South, who may have two or three fewer wins, will have that opportunity. Either way, the NFC West is an intriguing race to watch as the second half of the season gets underway.
What can/will the Jets do at Quarterback the rest of the way?
Two weeks ago, after the New York Jets narrowly lost in a well played, 27-25 defeat to the New England Patriots, I told a friend that I thought the Jets were the best 1-6 team I had ever seen. Now after the Jets most recent performance, against the Bills, I can say with certainty that the Jets are right up there as one of the worst 1-7 teams I’ve ever seen. How could so much go so wrong in just one game? The Jets actually came in favored at home, looking to turn things around with their new addition at Wide Receiver in Percy Harvin. Then Quarterback Geno Smith came out and completed just two passes, while throwing three interceptions before being benched. Michael Vick, who came in in relief for Geno Smith, did a little better. Vick threw for 153 yards and ran for another 69, but fumbled twice and threw an interception as well. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s six turnovers between two different quarterbacks for the Jets. The question going forward is what do the Jets do now? To put into context just how bad the Jets quarterback situation is, Ben Roethlisberger threw one fewer touchdown (6) on Sunday, than the Jets have thrown all season long. I won’t try to get into the mind of a Jet fan, sounds like a scary thing, but I think that most of them feel queasier than usual over next week’s contest against the Kansas City Chiefs with Michael Vick officially being named the starter. But is there a better alternative? Geno Smith has proven to us that he isn’t an NFL quarterback, at least not yet. Matt Simms would be up next, but he would need at least a week to transition from the practice squad into the Jets offense. You know things are bad when your fan base is actually hoping for Matt Simms to get into the game. To be fair, I think we need to see Michael Vick get a start or two under his belt before we can really judge him, and until then, he will be the starting quarterback for the New York Jets. If Vick doesn’t work out, the rest of the season will likely be a carousel of the three quarterbacks each proving to us their ineptitude. Whichever way it works out, it’s going to be a tough second half for the Jets and their fans.
How do the Detroit Lions have the same number of wins as the Broncos, Cowboys and Patriots?
The Detroit Lions have always made me upset. They could have the most potent offense in the NFL if they could ever put it all together. Running Backs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, along with Receivers Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, make up one of the most dangerous offensive combinations in the league. With that offense coupled with one of the NFL’s best defenses, the Lions should be one of the best teams in the league. But the last few seasons, there has always seemed to be something with this team, a fumble, a late interception, a bad call, which holds them back from winning the games they should win. It has been hard to watch a team with so much talent do so little. It feels like Quarterback Matt Stafford has essentially been handed the keys to a brand-new $300,000 Lamborghini, but instead of respecting it, and using it for all that it offers, he has treated it like a 2001 Pontiac Aztek, nailing potholes, backing into other cars, and overall destroying the car.
This season has been different… sort of. The Lions have quietly, and it’s probably better that way, come into week eight with a 6-2 record and a spot atop the NFC North. The Lions haven’t exactly dominated their way to that record. Their last two wins in particular have both been come from behind roller coaster in which they really only played about 15-20 minutes of good football. Two weeks ago they trailed the New Orleans Saints by 13 points late in the fourth quarter, but were saved by a late touchdown drive and an interception thrown by Drew Brees. This past week, the Lions played two different games. In the first half, they were shut down by a weak Falcons defense, entering halftime down 21-0. The second half of the game was the complete opposite of the first. The Lions slowly fought their way back into the game, shutting the Falcons out in the second half, and ultimately won on a last second field goal. Not exactly what you would expect from a member of the NFL’s elite.
I’m not trying to diminish the accomplishments of the Lions. They are 6-2, and as Bill Parcells once said, “you are only as good as your record says you are.” I am just confused as to how they have gotten off to a 6-2 start without playing particularly well, and without any consistency. The Lions have overachieved thus far relative to their performance, and if they want that success to continue, they will have to improve on their game to truly achieve what they ultimately would like to do: reach the playoffs. The Lions will face the Patriots, Cardinals and Packers at points during the next eight weeks, each game being played away from Ford Field, and it will be in those games that the Lions will have to step up and prove themselves if they want to really convince anyone that they are a serious playoff contender.
Who will be the League’s MVP?
In a sport like football, where so much of the success comes from the team as a whole, and not just the individual player, it can be hard to analyze who really deserves to be the leagues Most Valuable Player. There are always the MVP pretenders; your breakout guys, your players who got hot but will fade away by week 9, your defensive players… (No disrespect to defensive players who are putting up MVP-like performances, but in such an offense driven league, where the commissioner is constantly making new rules to make it easier and easier on offenses, a defensive player just isn’t going to win the MVP) the list goes on and on. In reality, the race for MVP after eight weeks comes down to three players, Indianapolis Colts Quarterback Andrew Luck, Dallas Running Back DeMarco Murray, and reigning MVP and Denver Broncos Quarterback Peyton Manning. Luck has brought the Colts out to a 6-2 start, airing the ball out for 2,731 yards and 22 touchdowns over the first eight games. He has been good, great even, but the other two MVP candidates have a step on him at this point. Luck will win himself an MVP award at some point, but not quite yet. The man who Luck replaced in Indy, Peyton Manning, is somehow still doing it better than just about anyone else at the position at the ripe age of 38. Manning has come out this season, and just like every season in the past sixteen, save for the 2011 season which he missed with a neck injury, and has put himself and his team in the conversation for the leagues best team. Although he has been virtually unstoppable this season, throwing 22 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions in his teams first seven games, Peyton Manning will not be able to defend his MVP title this year. The man who will earn himself the Most Valuable Player award in the NFL this year will be DeMarco Murray. Through eight games, Murray has averaged about 132 yards per game on the ground while helping to carry his Cowboys team to a 6-2 record. At the pace he is running, Murray will break Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record of 2,105 yards. Murray has already broken and set a record of his own this season. In week seven, he tied Terrell Davis’ record of consecutive games with 100+ rushing yards open a season, a record which he broke on Monday Night Football this past week. If DeMarco Murray can stay healthy, and sustain his current success, he will be the league MVP.
Of course, there are still eight weeks to be played, and a lot can happen in that time. We will likely see another player or two emerge as an MVP candidate, and maybe even see someone we see as a candidate right now fade away. Regardless, the MVP race will definitely be an intriguing storyline to watch as the season wraps itself up in December.
So there you go, eight questions, after eight weeks of NFL Football. It has been an eventful season so far, and it can only get better from here. And I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait to see how it will all unfold.
By Eli Lederman
Four weeks ago, the NFL forced me to write an absurdly negative ¼ mark report. The play had been stale, with just about every team sleep walking through the first few games, and the league was dealing with one of the worst PR situations in its history. I got no joy out of ripping on the league that we all love so much. Fortunately, in the time since, the league has recovered quite nicely. The play has gotten much better, the games are more exciting and intriguing, and we are actually once again able to enjoy the NFL. The league’s rebound has given us a lot of excitement, but it has also left us with a lot to wonder about. Below are some of the most intriguing questions that will be answered over the next eight weeks, and my takes on each of them.
Are The Dallas Cowboys For Real?
In the 1/4 mark NFL article, I embarrassed myself by forecasting that the Cowboys would fall off after a hot start and end up back as just the average team that they always are. The Cowboys have not only continued their success, but have emerged as one of the leagues best teams, and appear poised to make a run at the NFC East title. Dallas has thrived on the legs of the finally healthy DeMarco Murray and its rejuvenated offensive line, all the way to top of the division. This time around, I’m not going to make the mistake of doubting the Cowboys. They have proven to me these past few weeks that they are a team with serious capabilities and that they should not be dismissed because of their past inability to finish a season. Despite losing on Monday Night Football this past week, in overtime to Washington[1], we saw that the Dallas defense is continuing to improve, watched Tony Romo look good up until he was forced out of the game after taking a knee to his surgically repaired back, and witnessed the greatness of DeMarco Murray as he continued his unreal statistical performance, with yet another 100+ yard showing.
[1] In accord with the decisions of many other journalists, I am not using the nickname of Washington DC’s football team out of respect for America’s Native American community.
This Dallas team is for real. With the offensive weapons of Murray and Dez Bryant for Romo to utilize, and a developing defense that has begun to shine as of late, the Cowboys should be able to stick around late into this season, hopefully with more success than they have in the past. It will be really interesting to see how the relatively inexperienced team will fair down the stretch against some of its tougher opponents; The Cardinals next week, two meetings against the Eagles in a three week span, and a late season test against the Colts, will give us a strong idea of what this Cowboys team is really capable of.
At 6-2, the Cowboys still have the opportunity to finish at their patented 8-8 if they just go 2-6 the rest of the way! Sorry, that’s the Cowboy hater in me coming out. So long as Tony Romo and Demarco Murray remain healthy, this team will be successful and will definitely be fighting for a playoff spot come December.
Can the Bills continue to succeed without their top 2 Running Backs?
The Bills came out this season and surprised just about everyone with their play. The immediate emergence of rookie receiver Sammy Watkins and the frightening midseason switch at the Quarterback position from E.J. Manuel to Kyle Orton, which somehow worked out, has propelled the Bills to a 5-3 record in the AFC East. But the loss of Running Backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson should have fans in Buffalo concerned about the future success of the team. While the Bills have opened the season strongly, it’s not like they have been dominating teams or anything. In three of their five wins, the Bills have won by three points or less, all coming on last second touchdowns and field goals. The loss of two of their biggest offensive producers certainly won’t aid them in the remainder of the season as they attempt to remain relevant deep into the season, a point not seen by Buffalo fans since the 1990’s. With Jackson out for at least the next five weeks, and Spiller likely done for the season, the Bills will have to rely heavily on their passing game to sustain their success. They did so, successfully I might add, this past week against the New York Jets, who literally handed the Bills the game, with six turnovers between their two quarterbacks. The heavy reliance on the passing game will certainly work against teams like the Jets, but I am interested to see how the Bills handle that challenge against the tougher teams on their schedule, especially during a stretch in December in which the Bills face the Patriots, Packers and Broncos in a span of 21 days. The Bills have surprised us thus far with their success, but I’m afraid that their magic may run out in the coming weeks as their schedule gets tougher and they begin to realize just how important it is to have a balanced offense.
Are the Seattle Seahawks in real trouble?
I was one of the few people who going into the season believed that the Seahawks would regress. They had lost valuable pieces on both sides of the ball, and I just couldn’t see them replicating what they did last season, knowing that even the best teams can suffer traces of a Super Bowl hangover. Then they came out on Thursday Night Football for the first game of the season, and decimated the Green Bay Packers, looking just as dominant as they had the season before. Seven weeks later, their record stands at 4-3 and their locker room may or may not, depending on who you ask, be on the verge of ruin. The last few weeks for the team have been very un-Seahawk like. We have seen them struggle to contain teams with what we thought was an unstoppable defense, observed as their offense has become wholly one-dimensional on the back of Russell Wilson, and have watched what seemed like such a uniquely tight and together team, appear otherwise. We’ve seen Russell Wilson’s number one target, Wide Receiver Percy Harvin, dealt to the New York Jets after he refused to play at the end of an eventual 30-23 Seattle defeat to the Dallas Cowboys, and have heard rumors that the team is “tiring” of star Running Back Marshawn Lynch’s antics, both situations adding to the locker room discord. Most importantly, we have witnessed the reigning Super Bowl champions appear weak and despondent. Even in their win last Sunday, which was preceded by two bad losses, the Seahawks could only muster 13 points.
So are the Seahawks screwed? Is this locker room tumult going to derail their entire season? The answer to both of those questions, is no. The Seahawks are going to be fine. This team is just too talented not to rebound from their current woes. With a soft spot in their schedule coming up, the Seahawks should be able to rattle off a few wins and get back on track. As for the locker room issues, I think winning should be a good remedy to that. It seems that most locker room problems appear right around the time when teams start losing games, and once teams begin winning again, those problems magically disappear. This is not to say that these troubles won’t return and force changes during the offseason, but I don’t see them causing such a problem that it ruins the entire season for the Seahawks. Although I could see Richard Sherman making a joke at the overly sensitive Marshawn Lynch right before a game, then Lynch throwing a hissy fit, forcing Head Coach Pete Carroll to awkwardly coax him into playing the game as the ball was kicked off… But overall, this team is too talented and too disciplined not to get out of this rut. So long as they start winning again, and Richard Sherman keeps his mouth shut around Marshawn Lynch, the Seattle Seahawks are going to be just fine.
Does anyone actually want to win the NFC South?
The NFC South is a complete mess. At a total of nine wins between the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the South is the only division in the NFL with a combined win count under double digits. And it’s not even just that none of the four teams are particularly good, but that these teams seem to lose (or tie) in such strange fashion. During their week five match-up in Cincinnati going up against the Bengals, the Panthers blew three red-zone opportunities and missed a close range field goal as the game went on to end in a tie, yes a tie. This past week, while playing in London, the Falcons came out firing and entered halftime with a 21-0 lead over the Detroit Lions. The Falcons then proceeded to get shutout in the second half, blowing their lead, losing 22-21 on a last second Matt Prater field goal. The teams in the NFC South don’t just lose; they lose in the saddest and most dramatic ways possible.
As it stands right now, the Panthers at 3-4-1 would represent the NFC South in the playoffs. But the way things are going; the standings in the South will shift about four, five, six or seventy-eight more times before the end of the season. So which team will be on top when all is said and done? It really does feel as though there is something toxic about that first place spot as each team is seemingly doing everything in their power not to end up at the top of the division. But someone has to end up in first place at the end of the season. We can count the Buccaneers out; at 1-6, they appear to have already packed it in for next season, evident as they shopped just about everyone on their team as the trade deadline approached on Tuesday. Last year’s breakout team, the Panthers, don’t seem to have the same fire that they possessed last season. With the defense looking shaky and Cam Newton looking lost without anyone to throw to, I don’t see the Panthers being able to put up much more of a fight than they already have. That leaves us with the Saints and Falcons. Both teams have tough schedules down the stretch, each facing several first place teams and then facing each other in week 16. The different teams that they face aren’t going to be enough to really separate the teams, but where they play them will. Both the Saints and the Falcons look like completely different teams outside of their respective domes; at home, they can beat anybody, but once they get outside, they struggle mightily. It’s a ridiculous idea, seeing as how divisions are supposed to be won by superior teams and all, but the NFC South is going to be decided by the team who has more home games down the stretch. Hence, I predict that the New Orleans Saints, playing one more home game than the Atlanta Falcons, will win the NFC South. If you’re a Saints fan, don’t get too excited reading this, I also predict the winner of the division ending up with about 8- or 9 wins, and foresee that team getting blown out in the first round of the playoffs by a Wild Card team.
Who will be the odd team out in the NFC West?
Speaking of Wild Card teams, let’s take a look at the NFC West. To me, the NFC West essentially possesses two guaranteed playoff berths; it’s teams are just that good. The West features three teams, The Seattle Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals, who are all potential playoff, and even Super Bowl contenders. Unfortunately, the way that the NFC playoff picture is shaping up, one of those teams is likely going to be on the outside looking in at the end of the season. The NFL playoffs are made up of the division winners from each of the four divisions, and two other Wild Card teams, so it’s hard for me to picture three teams from the same division each making it. The way the NFC East is developing, with the Cowboys and Eagles both looking strong, and the same occurring in the NFC North between the Packers and the Lions, one of those teams in the NFC West is going to have a tough time sneaking into the playoffs. But who is going to be the odd team out? As I spoke about before, I see the Seahawks rebounding and getting back on track. With the way Russell Wilson is playing, and the talent on their defense, there is no way that Seattle will stay quiet for long. The Seahawks will be a playoff team, whether it is through winning the division or securing a Wild Card spot. That leaves the Niners or the Cardinals to either win the division, or if Seattle wins it, to get one of the two Wild Cards. It’s a tough breakdown; both the 49ers and the Cardinals are such talented teams. Both teams face several tough match-ups late in the season, including a week seventeen meeting between the two teams that could very well decide which of the two ends up as a playoff team. The debate really comes down to experience vs. youth. The Niners possess a lot of experience, playing in all of the last three NFC Championship games. As for the Cardinals, they are the young break out team similar to last years Carolina Panthers. Although I usually go with the more experienced team, I absolutely love the Cardinals defense and I think that they will be able to outlast the Niners for that claim to the other NFC West playoff spot. It will be a shame to see the odd team out in the West not get a chance in the playoffs when a team from the NFC South, who may have two or three fewer wins, will have that opportunity. Either way, the NFC West is an intriguing race to watch as the second half of the season gets underway.
What can/will the Jets do at Quarterback the rest of the way?
Two weeks ago, after the New York Jets narrowly lost in a well played, 27-25 defeat to the New England Patriots, I told a friend that I thought the Jets were the best 1-6 team I had ever seen. Now after the Jets most recent performance, against the Bills, I can say with certainty that the Jets are right up there as one of the worst 1-7 teams I’ve ever seen. How could so much go so wrong in just one game? The Jets actually came in favored at home, looking to turn things around with their new addition at Wide Receiver in Percy Harvin. Then Quarterback Geno Smith came out and completed just two passes, while throwing three interceptions before being benched. Michael Vick, who came in in relief for Geno Smith, did a little better. Vick threw for 153 yards and ran for another 69, but fumbled twice and threw an interception as well. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s six turnovers between two different quarterbacks for the Jets. The question going forward is what do the Jets do now? To put into context just how bad the Jets quarterback situation is, Ben Roethlisberger threw one fewer touchdown (6) on Sunday, than the Jets have thrown all season long. I won’t try to get into the mind of a Jet fan, sounds like a scary thing, but I think that most of them feel queasier than usual over next week’s contest against the Kansas City Chiefs with Michael Vick officially being named the starter. But is there a better alternative? Geno Smith has proven to us that he isn’t an NFL quarterback, at least not yet. Matt Simms would be up next, but he would need at least a week to transition from the practice squad into the Jets offense. You know things are bad when your fan base is actually hoping for Matt Simms to get into the game. To be fair, I think we need to see Michael Vick get a start or two under his belt before we can really judge him, and until then, he will be the starting quarterback for the New York Jets. If Vick doesn’t work out, the rest of the season will likely be a carousel of the three quarterbacks each proving to us their ineptitude. Whichever way it works out, it’s going to be a tough second half for the Jets and their fans.
How do the Detroit Lions have the same number of wins as the Broncos, Cowboys and Patriots?
The Detroit Lions have always made me upset. They could have the most potent offense in the NFL if they could ever put it all together. Running Backs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, along with Receivers Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, make up one of the most dangerous offensive combinations in the league. With that offense coupled with one of the NFL’s best defenses, the Lions should be one of the best teams in the league. But the last few seasons, there has always seemed to be something with this team, a fumble, a late interception, a bad call, which holds them back from winning the games they should win. It has been hard to watch a team with so much talent do so little. It feels like Quarterback Matt Stafford has essentially been handed the keys to a brand-new $300,000 Lamborghini, but instead of respecting it, and using it for all that it offers, he has treated it like a 2001 Pontiac Aztek, nailing potholes, backing into other cars, and overall destroying the car.
This season has been different… sort of. The Lions have quietly, and it’s probably better that way, come into week eight with a 6-2 record and a spot atop the NFC North. The Lions haven’t exactly dominated their way to that record. Their last two wins in particular have both been come from behind roller coaster in which they really only played about 15-20 minutes of good football. Two weeks ago they trailed the New Orleans Saints by 13 points late in the fourth quarter, but were saved by a late touchdown drive and an interception thrown by Drew Brees. This past week, the Lions played two different games. In the first half, they were shut down by a weak Falcons defense, entering halftime down 21-0. The second half of the game was the complete opposite of the first. The Lions slowly fought their way back into the game, shutting the Falcons out in the second half, and ultimately won on a last second field goal. Not exactly what you would expect from a member of the NFL’s elite.
I’m not trying to diminish the accomplishments of the Lions. They are 6-2, and as Bill Parcells once said, “you are only as good as your record says you are.” I am just confused as to how they have gotten off to a 6-2 start without playing particularly well, and without any consistency. The Lions have overachieved thus far relative to their performance, and if they want that success to continue, they will have to improve on their game to truly achieve what they ultimately would like to do: reach the playoffs. The Lions will face the Patriots, Cardinals and Packers at points during the next eight weeks, each game being played away from Ford Field, and it will be in those games that the Lions will have to step up and prove themselves if they want to really convince anyone that they are a serious playoff contender.
Who will be the League’s MVP?
In a sport like football, where so much of the success comes from the team as a whole, and not just the individual player, it can be hard to analyze who really deserves to be the leagues Most Valuable Player. There are always the MVP pretenders; your breakout guys, your players who got hot but will fade away by week 9, your defensive players… (No disrespect to defensive players who are putting up MVP-like performances, but in such an offense driven league, where the commissioner is constantly making new rules to make it easier and easier on offenses, a defensive player just isn’t going to win the MVP) the list goes on and on. In reality, the race for MVP after eight weeks comes down to three players, Indianapolis Colts Quarterback Andrew Luck, Dallas Running Back DeMarco Murray, and reigning MVP and Denver Broncos Quarterback Peyton Manning. Luck has brought the Colts out to a 6-2 start, airing the ball out for 2,731 yards and 22 touchdowns over the first eight games. He has been good, great even, but the other two MVP candidates have a step on him at this point. Luck will win himself an MVP award at some point, but not quite yet. The man who Luck replaced in Indy, Peyton Manning, is somehow still doing it better than just about anyone else at the position at the ripe age of 38. Manning has come out this season, and just like every season in the past sixteen, save for the 2011 season which he missed with a neck injury, and has put himself and his team in the conversation for the leagues best team. Although he has been virtually unstoppable this season, throwing 22 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions in his teams first seven games, Peyton Manning will not be able to defend his MVP title this year. The man who will earn himself the Most Valuable Player award in the NFL this year will be DeMarco Murray. Through eight games, Murray has averaged about 132 yards per game on the ground while helping to carry his Cowboys team to a 6-2 record. At the pace he is running, Murray will break Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record of 2,105 yards. Murray has already broken and set a record of his own this season. In week seven, he tied Terrell Davis’ record of consecutive games with 100+ rushing yards open a season, a record which he broke on Monday Night Football this past week. If DeMarco Murray can stay healthy, and sustain his current success, he will be the league MVP.
Of course, there are still eight weeks to be played, and a lot can happen in that time. We will likely see another player or two emerge as an MVP candidate, and maybe even see someone we see as a candidate right now fade away. Regardless, the MVP race will definitely be an intriguing storyline to watch as the season wraps itself up in December.
So there you go, eight questions, after eight weeks of NFL Football. It has been an eventful season so far, and it can only get better from here. And I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait to see how it will all unfold.
October 16th 2014
By Eli Lederman
The past five seasons have been immense successes for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Winning 55+ games in four of those five seasons, each has included an exciting playoff run. The Thunder also possess two of the NBA's most exciting players in point guard Russell Westbrook, and reigning MVP and 4-time scoring champion, Kevin Durant. However the Thunder have fallen short in each of those years-Losing to LeBron and the Heat in the 2012 Finals, losing in the Western Conference finals in 2011 to the Mavericks and last spring to the Spurs, and their earliest exit came in 2013 as the Thunder lost to the Memphis Grizzlies in the Conference Semi-Finals, sans Russell Westbrook-underwhelming and ultimately underachieving in the playoffs.
The Thunder have flourished during the regular season these past few years: becoming title favorites in the eyes of many each season (including myself) and prompting Skip Bayless to call "this year, Kevin Durant's year" more times than Stephen A. Smith gave him eye rolls during the Tebow era, yet each one has ended in a disappointing blur of injuries and confused looks from Kendrick Perkins.
Don’t misunderstand me, a Finals appearance and few deep playoff runs is nothing to scoff at, most fan bases would kill for a run like that. What troubles me is that this team isn't falling short each spring because they don't have star power, or that they don't halfway decent coaching, -which nowadays in such a star driven league, is less important than ever.
The Thunder haven’t seen total success in the playoffs over the last five seasons because of GM Sam Presti and OKC's penny-pinching front office.
A small-market team at heart, ranging back to it’s days as the Seattle Supersonics, Oklahoma City has never been a big free agent destination where new free agents come to receive max contracts, or even above average role players for deals to come off of the bench for that matter. That’s not a product of Oklahoma City not having the appeal of bigger cities like New York, Los Angeles and Miami, or a result of OKC’s roster not being attractive enough to entice potential free agents, it is the failure from Oklahoma City’s front office to spend money to improve it’s team. Since 2009, frugal-to-a-fault Thunder General Manager Sam Presti has done virtually nothing in free agency. This past summers signing of Anthony Morrow was one of the first semi-significant free agency moves made by the Thunder in it’s short history, and the first sign of life from Presti basically since the James Harden trade. So gear up Thunder fans, if this great upward trend continues, you’ll be looking at Chase Budinger or a past, past his prime Amar’e Stoudemire in OKC this time next year.
And once again, going into this season, after another deep playoff run where the Thunder just didn’t quite have enough, they haven’t done anything to enhance their team. Comparing last years Thunder roster, with the roster entering this season, the team has lost Derek Fisher, Caron Butler, and maybe fortunately, Hasheem Thabeet, while adding just Morrow and Mitch McGary through the draft. This lack of initiative to put the team over the top is due in part to the Oklahoma City front offices miser, but there is something else, something deeper, that is holding them back from making moves to become among the NBA’s nobility, and not just one of it’s top teams
In order to determine that something else, I had to grab my white coat and my stethoscope to conduct a deep examination to diagnose the Thunder’s problem. It isn’t just the sports equivalent of the common cold, a cheap front office unwilling to spend money, or bad contract-initis, a syndrome which handcuffs teams to bad contracts and restricts them from being able to pursue other, more effective free agents i.e. the New York Knicks and Amar’e Stoudemire. The disorder inflicting the Thunder is far more pervasive than either of these ailments.
Thus, after some in-depth analysis, I can, in my expert opinion, diagnose the Oklahoma City Thunder with Runner-up Disease.
Afflicting those who have lost in either the finals or semi-finals, Runner-up Disease can devastate a team. Symptoms often include complacency, a sense of entitlement, and a belief that improvement or progress is not necessary. The Thunder have been exhibiting signs of the disease for a few years now, not adding role players or valuable leaders, and even getting rid of the strong talents like James Harden. This lack of advancement is a problem for OKC, especially in today’s NBA. In the era of max contracts and super teams, where you can no longer keep together the same group of players together for more than three years, it’s imperative for teams to keep adapting with the league.
As an organization nowadays, you must either commit to building a strong core and continuing to add depth through the draft and free agency (think San Antonio Spurs), or to taking a collective crap on the history, and the game of basketball, by forming a super team through free agency and trades (Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers). The Thunder have made half-baked attempts at both paths over the last five years, making questionable draft choices in order to fill their bench, and attempting to win on the star power of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook alone. As both the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs taught us last spring, you need to have a well-rounded team in order to win a championship in the NBA. The Heat showing us that attempting to win on star power alone, without a bench of any sort, is a near futile endeavor, and the Spurs displaying the art that is team basketball, playing 10-men deep, with each player serving a specific purpose or role that contributed to the teams success.
The Thunder have held onto their young stars in Durant and Westbrook, but have halted the organization’s progress there. Instead of adding another piece to their core, which you could say has been filled by Serge Ibaka, or creating a strong bench to compliment their stars, the Thunder have gotten rid of a potential third piece in their starting line-up, James Harden, and have done virtually nothing to assemble a strong bench.
This strategy isn’t going to get the Thunder any further than they have already been. They can probably return to their past points- the Conference Finals, or even The Finals maybe- on the star power they currently possess alone. But they will never reach the ultimate honor, hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy, at the current rate with which they are moving. If the Oklahoma City front office continues it’s habit of tightfistedness in free agency and effective disregard for the direction in which the league is moving, they will never fully succeed, and even worse, it will cost them their biggest star.
The last few years, Kevin Durant has been a backseat witness as NBA free agency has turned into a mess of players conspiring with each other, figuring which team makes the most sense for them to play together on. Free agency is no longer controlled by owners and GM’s, but by the players themselves who are now able to manipulate three team trades in order to return to in their hometowns, but this time doing so along side other stars. Was that too specific?
In the summer of 2016, Durant will enter that crazy jungle of NBA free agency and he will certainly command the interest of nearly every team in the league. Though Durant has pledged his loyalty to Oklahoma City in the past, if things don’t change in OKC, there is no reason to not believe that he might ditch the Thunder for a new team who can pay him more and give him a better shot at a championship. Watching Durant be all-to-cute with Wizards Point Guard John Wall this past summer-the two of them lighting up Instagram and Twitter with photos and tweets showing them palling around Washington DC- along with the fact that Wall plays in Durant’s home city of Washington DC, the Wizards would seem to be a prime candidate to swipe Durant away from the Thunder in 2016. Big market teams like the Knicks, Nets and Lakers will all get in on the Durant chase as well, and per usual with these teams, they will likely be rather fruitless attempts. This will give the Thunder the option of letting KD walk, or caving and giving him a huge payday; something the organization has hesitated to do for others in the past. And that may not even be enough, as I stated before, control of free agency has changed in recent years, falling completely into the hands of players. Durant may decide that he is sick of the way the Thunder have failed to construct a strong enough team to support his talents, that he no longer wants to carry a team for 82 games, and pick up and leave for a cushier situation in Washington or somewhere else.
The loss of major a star is one of the consequences of Runner-up Disease and is one of the main reasons why it is so feared in the world of sports disease that I just made up. While runner-up disease is one of the more severe sports afflictions out there, it is also one of the most treatable. All of the symptoms that the Thunder face now, and in the future as a result of the disease, can be treated with one simple remedy: spending money in free agency. While it is far easier said, than done, the only way for the Oklahoma City Thunder to become a championship team, and to retain their main attraction, is by spending money on talented players.
Keep in mind, this was a 59-win team last season, it’s not like they need to go on a wild spending spree to become a champion or anything. The Thunder could vastly improve themselves as soon as next offseason through free agency if they make shrewd, but influential, signings. Were the Thunder to sign Lou Williams, Draymond Green, Miles Plumlee, or a set of other players of a similar caliber, which is not an outlandish prediction, the Thunder would solidify the team and bench, adding security for their starters in the process. This is not a huge overhaul or transition, and it is certainly a doable way for the Thunder to vastly improve themselves, and put themselves into real championship contention.
Don’t get me wrong, the Thunder are still one of the leagues premier teams and I fully expect them to win 55+ games this coming season, even with Kevin Durant looking like he’ll miss the first 6-8 weeks of the season. There is too much star power and talent for them not to put up the same numbers they have in the past. But star power with depth, not just star power, is the way championships are won in the NBA, and without it the Thunder will run into trouble again next spring. They enter the season without a formidable bench, which will certainly come back to bite them as they go up against the deep and talented teams of the Western Conference.
This lack of commitment towards developing a strong, deep team around stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook may trip up the Thunder, not just in the near future in their efforts to win a title, but later on in their hopes of holding onto Kevin Durant in two seasons when he is thrust into free agency.
By Eli Lederman
The past five seasons have been immense successes for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Winning 55+ games in four of those five seasons, each has included an exciting playoff run. The Thunder also possess two of the NBA's most exciting players in point guard Russell Westbrook, and reigning MVP and 4-time scoring champion, Kevin Durant. However the Thunder have fallen short in each of those years-Losing to LeBron and the Heat in the 2012 Finals, losing in the Western Conference finals in 2011 to the Mavericks and last spring to the Spurs, and their earliest exit came in 2013 as the Thunder lost to the Memphis Grizzlies in the Conference Semi-Finals, sans Russell Westbrook-underwhelming and ultimately underachieving in the playoffs.
The Thunder have flourished during the regular season these past few years: becoming title favorites in the eyes of many each season (including myself) and prompting Skip Bayless to call "this year, Kevin Durant's year" more times than Stephen A. Smith gave him eye rolls during the Tebow era, yet each one has ended in a disappointing blur of injuries and confused looks from Kendrick Perkins.
Don’t misunderstand me, a Finals appearance and few deep playoff runs is nothing to scoff at, most fan bases would kill for a run like that. What troubles me is that this team isn't falling short each spring because they don't have star power, or that they don't halfway decent coaching, -which nowadays in such a star driven league, is less important than ever.
The Thunder haven’t seen total success in the playoffs over the last five seasons because of GM Sam Presti and OKC's penny-pinching front office.
A small-market team at heart, ranging back to it’s days as the Seattle Supersonics, Oklahoma City has never been a big free agent destination where new free agents come to receive max contracts, or even above average role players for deals to come off of the bench for that matter. That’s not a product of Oklahoma City not having the appeal of bigger cities like New York, Los Angeles and Miami, or a result of OKC’s roster not being attractive enough to entice potential free agents, it is the failure from Oklahoma City’s front office to spend money to improve it’s team. Since 2009, frugal-to-a-fault Thunder General Manager Sam Presti has done virtually nothing in free agency. This past summers signing of Anthony Morrow was one of the first semi-significant free agency moves made by the Thunder in it’s short history, and the first sign of life from Presti basically since the James Harden trade. So gear up Thunder fans, if this great upward trend continues, you’ll be looking at Chase Budinger or a past, past his prime Amar’e Stoudemire in OKC this time next year.
And once again, going into this season, after another deep playoff run where the Thunder just didn’t quite have enough, they haven’t done anything to enhance their team. Comparing last years Thunder roster, with the roster entering this season, the team has lost Derek Fisher, Caron Butler, and maybe fortunately, Hasheem Thabeet, while adding just Morrow and Mitch McGary through the draft. This lack of initiative to put the team over the top is due in part to the Oklahoma City front offices miser, but there is something else, something deeper, that is holding them back from making moves to become among the NBA’s nobility, and not just one of it’s top teams
In order to determine that something else, I had to grab my white coat and my stethoscope to conduct a deep examination to diagnose the Thunder’s problem. It isn’t just the sports equivalent of the common cold, a cheap front office unwilling to spend money, or bad contract-initis, a syndrome which handcuffs teams to bad contracts and restricts them from being able to pursue other, more effective free agents i.e. the New York Knicks and Amar’e Stoudemire. The disorder inflicting the Thunder is far more pervasive than either of these ailments.
Thus, after some in-depth analysis, I can, in my expert opinion, diagnose the Oklahoma City Thunder with Runner-up Disease.
Afflicting those who have lost in either the finals or semi-finals, Runner-up Disease can devastate a team. Symptoms often include complacency, a sense of entitlement, and a belief that improvement or progress is not necessary. The Thunder have been exhibiting signs of the disease for a few years now, not adding role players or valuable leaders, and even getting rid of the strong talents like James Harden. This lack of advancement is a problem for OKC, especially in today’s NBA. In the era of max contracts and super teams, where you can no longer keep together the same group of players together for more than three years, it’s imperative for teams to keep adapting with the league.
As an organization nowadays, you must either commit to building a strong core and continuing to add depth through the draft and free agency (think San Antonio Spurs), or to taking a collective crap on the history, and the game of basketball, by forming a super team through free agency and trades (Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers). The Thunder have made half-baked attempts at both paths over the last five years, making questionable draft choices in order to fill their bench, and attempting to win on the star power of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook alone. As both the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs taught us last spring, you need to have a well-rounded team in order to win a championship in the NBA. The Heat showing us that attempting to win on star power alone, without a bench of any sort, is a near futile endeavor, and the Spurs displaying the art that is team basketball, playing 10-men deep, with each player serving a specific purpose or role that contributed to the teams success.
The Thunder have held onto their young stars in Durant and Westbrook, but have halted the organization’s progress there. Instead of adding another piece to their core, which you could say has been filled by Serge Ibaka, or creating a strong bench to compliment their stars, the Thunder have gotten rid of a potential third piece in their starting line-up, James Harden, and have done virtually nothing to assemble a strong bench.
This strategy isn’t going to get the Thunder any further than they have already been. They can probably return to their past points- the Conference Finals, or even The Finals maybe- on the star power they currently possess alone. But they will never reach the ultimate honor, hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy, at the current rate with which they are moving. If the Oklahoma City front office continues it’s habit of tightfistedness in free agency and effective disregard for the direction in which the league is moving, they will never fully succeed, and even worse, it will cost them their biggest star.
The last few years, Kevin Durant has been a backseat witness as NBA free agency has turned into a mess of players conspiring with each other, figuring which team makes the most sense for them to play together on. Free agency is no longer controlled by owners and GM’s, but by the players themselves who are now able to manipulate three team trades in order to return to in their hometowns, but this time doing so along side other stars. Was that too specific?
In the summer of 2016, Durant will enter that crazy jungle of NBA free agency and he will certainly command the interest of nearly every team in the league. Though Durant has pledged his loyalty to Oklahoma City in the past, if things don’t change in OKC, there is no reason to not believe that he might ditch the Thunder for a new team who can pay him more and give him a better shot at a championship. Watching Durant be all-to-cute with Wizards Point Guard John Wall this past summer-the two of them lighting up Instagram and Twitter with photos and tweets showing them palling around Washington DC- along with the fact that Wall plays in Durant’s home city of Washington DC, the Wizards would seem to be a prime candidate to swipe Durant away from the Thunder in 2016. Big market teams like the Knicks, Nets and Lakers will all get in on the Durant chase as well, and per usual with these teams, they will likely be rather fruitless attempts. This will give the Thunder the option of letting KD walk, or caving and giving him a huge payday; something the organization has hesitated to do for others in the past. And that may not even be enough, as I stated before, control of free agency has changed in recent years, falling completely into the hands of players. Durant may decide that he is sick of the way the Thunder have failed to construct a strong enough team to support his talents, that he no longer wants to carry a team for 82 games, and pick up and leave for a cushier situation in Washington or somewhere else.
The loss of major a star is one of the consequences of Runner-up Disease and is one of the main reasons why it is so feared in the world of sports disease that I just made up. While runner-up disease is one of the more severe sports afflictions out there, it is also one of the most treatable. All of the symptoms that the Thunder face now, and in the future as a result of the disease, can be treated with one simple remedy: spending money in free agency. While it is far easier said, than done, the only way for the Oklahoma City Thunder to become a championship team, and to retain their main attraction, is by spending money on talented players.
Keep in mind, this was a 59-win team last season, it’s not like they need to go on a wild spending spree to become a champion or anything. The Thunder could vastly improve themselves as soon as next offseason through free agency if they make shrewd, but influential, signings. Were the Thunder to sign Lou Williams, Draymond Green, Miles Plumlee, or a set of other players of a similar caliber, which is not an outlandish prediction, the Thunder would solidify the team and bench, adding security for their starters in the process. This is not a huge overhaul or transition, and it is certainly a doable way for the Thunder to vastly improve themselves, and put themselves into real championship contention.
Don’t get me wrong, the Thunder are still one of the leagues premier teams and I fully expect them to win 55+ games this coming season, even with Kevin Durant looking like he’ll miss the first 6-8 weeks of the season. There is too much star power and talent for them not to put up the same numbers they have in the past. But star power with depth, not just star power, is the way championships are won in the NBA, and without it the Thunder will run into trouble again next spring. They enter the season without a formidable bench, which will certainly come back to bite them as they go up against the deep and talented teams of the Western Conference.
This lack of commitment towards developing a strong, deep team around stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook may trip up the Thunder, not just in the near future in their efforts to win a title, but later on in their hopes of holding onto Kevin Durant in two seasons when he is thrust into free agency.
The first four weeks of the NFL season have been a little odd, and when I say a little, I mean a lot. Week one began with a few upsets, a few near upsets, and too many boring games. Then about twenty hours before Monday Night Football’s season premier, the Ray Rice elevator tape erupted, sending the league into a spiral it has still yet to fully recover from. Next were the Adrian Peterson child-abuse allegations, which further enriched the PR disaster for the league. Peterson’s ordeal, coupled with Rice’s, sent news and sports channels alike into a frenzy over the NFL’s crime issue that was so new-new just like how the Millennium album and acid wash jeans are new.
Through four weeks on the field, we have seen a mess of blowouts and snoozers in prime time, too many teams still looking like they were playing their fourth preseason game, and loads of parity. (I always hear people talking about how they want more parity in the NFL, bear in mind that these people are usually fans of the Jets and the Raiders, and that they think the league would be better if there weren’t dominant forces in it. Well here you go guys, this is parity-the Browns beating the Saints and Buccaneers beating the Steelers-not as much fun as you thought, right?) Talking to my brother Alex the other day, we realized how stale and kind of boring this season has been so far. With all of the off-field drama and uninteresting play, it has been an ugly blur of fantasy football bewilderment, underwhelming performances, and camera pans to a pissed off Bill Belichick on the sideline. At this point in the season, it’s still hard to group teams into specific places like contenders or doormats (well, we have the Buccaneers and Jaguars for that I guess). Even with all of the chaos and uncertainty we have seen thus far, right now every team falls into at least one of four different categories: Teams who are in good shape, bad teams who are overachieving, bad teams and teams that are just plain confusing. So at the one-quarter mark of the season, with those four groups in mind, I will attempt to assign each NFL team to its correct place.
Teams in Good, or At Least Halfway
Decent, Shape
Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, San Diego Chargers, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans
Notice how I changed the title of the category? I realized that at this point, as long as you have looked sort of okay, you’re good. There is a team in here starting a backup quarterback, and another that’s quarterbacked by Ryan Fitzpatrick, let’s just say this isn’t the most exclusive club. These are all teams who have come out ready to play football. Unlike most of the league, who’ve looked like they have been on autopilot, sleepwalking through the first few weeks, these teams have excelled from the start and will look to do so for the rest of the season. One thing that I noticed that each of these teams have in common is domination possession; according to Teamrankings.com, eight of the eleven teams on this list are in the top fifteen in the league in time of possession. This means that they are not only sustaining long drives, but they are also keeping opposing offenses off the field, and in turn, keeping them off the scoreboard. Another stat that sets this particular group apart is points per game; seven of the eleven teams in this group are in the top 15 in the league in PPG. Obviously the team that scores more, wins the game, and that’s exactly what these teams have done.
With the exception of a few teams in here who are still a little iffy and uncertain (Houston, Kansas City, Dallas), this group should still be, at the very least, hanging around towards the end of the season. That is not to say that Houston, Kansas City and Dallas won’t still be around, but their successes are a little more suspect.
The Texans are winning on the arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the shaky hamstrings of Arian Foster; their magic is bound to run out at some point.
In Dallas, there were a lot of questions prior to the season about their precarious defense, their inexperienced offensive line and their quarterback, Tony Romo, who was returning from back surgery. After four weeks they have a 3-1 record and are tied atop the NFC East with the Philadelphia Eagles. And much to the dismay of myself, and the numerous many others who were skeptical of Cowboys, they have answered all of those questions. The offensive line has been one of the best in football, Romo looks as though he hasn’t skipped a beat, the defense hasn’t looked terrible, and an added positive is the reemergence of running back DeMarco Murray, who to this point has been the best running back in the league. But I’m not quite convinced. My concern with them is that their defense will not hold up and that once Dallas begins to play the tougher part of it’s schedule, they will struggle to keep up. DeMarco Murray has carried the offense for them so far, which has kept Tony Romo from having to really throw the ball, and that’s why they have succeeded. Once they start playing more quality opponents, and they fall behind in games, the offense won’t be able to work its way back into games. You can’t run your way back into a game, and Romo just is not skilled enough to lead a big comeback against the leagues stronger teams.
To me, the most curious, but expectable start has been that of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs impressed everyone with their Monday Night Football performance in week four, walloping the Patriots 41-14. My concern with the Chiefs is their inconsistent offensive line, their inability to force turnovers on defense, and a problematic dependence on Jamaal Charles. Last season, Charles accounted for 37% of the Chiefs total offense, the highest percentage in the league. Prior to week four this season, Charles had accounted for just 24 yards of rushing, and despite a breakout on MNF, the team will struggle if they continue to rely so heavily on him and his fragile lower body. Their offensive line has struggled this season to keep quarterback Alex Smith upright and to make their blocks for Charles. Though they showed some improvement in that department during the MNF game, it is still a work in progress. On the defensive side of the ball, they are having trouble forcing turnovers and getting opposing offenses off the field. Prior to their last game, the defense had caused no turnovers and had a forced 3-and-out percentage of just 17.3%, good for 28th in the NFL according to sportingcharts.com. These factors may hinder the Chiefs long-term success, and will be an interesting storyline to follow.
Aside from these three teams, of whom I have faith in, just not total confidence, everyone on this list should remain atop the NFL, barring any deflating injuries or major collapses.
Bad Teams Who Are Overachieving
Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings
The teams in this group have come out, and against all of the negative preseason chatter, and or undesirable situations, they have won games. Each one winning games a little differently; the Bills with their running game, the Dolphins with their pass rush and solid offensive production, and the Vikings winning their games with, well, I’m not sure how they are winning. Other than running back Matt Asiata, who has seized the opportunity of Adrian Peterson’s suspension, and Teddy Bridgewater looking strong in his limited time, the Vikings have no clear strengths. Unfortunately, I don’t really see any of these teams doing much more than they have already done.
The Bills are currently sitting atop the AFC East- a fact I won’t soon forget from my friend Hurwitz- but rumors of tensions between head coach Doug Marrone and the Bills front office, and the benching of second year quarterback E.J. Manuel point at a downward spiral that has already begun with two straight losses. There is too much talent in Buffalo to count them out right now, but I see them as more of a 2-3 years down the road type of team, not a current contender.
The Dolphins are in a similar spot, currently at 2-2. We’ve seen two versions of Miami thus far; the Dolphins who beat up on the Patriots, and the Dolphins who were blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs in week two, the Chiefs playing without Jamaal Charles. While I see the Dolphins with a potential ceiling as a wild card team, I think a more realistic prediction is 7 to 9 wins. Uncertainty at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill, along with a few key injuries and a tough late season schedule lead me to think semi-pessimistically about the ‘Fins and their outlook the rest of the way.
Despite losing their first string quarterback and their star running back, the Vikings are somehow 2-2 and tied for second place in the NFC North. Running back Matt Asiata has taken advantage of the Adrian Peterson suspension, shining in all three of his games. Although I don’t really believe that this team will be hanging around as a real contender come December, playing in a division where no one seems to want to pull away and having a relatively weak schedule should benefit the Vikings and maybe even keep them around .500, a mark they have seen just twice since 2009.
The truth of the matter is that none of these teams are really that good. Whether it is a product of an easy schedule early on, or players outplaying their own ability, they have gotten off to strong starts. However with two of the three teams already playing their second string quarterbacks, and all of the teams being ravaged by injuries, I don’t see any of this sticking. The most likely to do so would be the Dolphins and they very well could do so if they survive the daunting schedule they have in November and December, and if they are able to stay healthy, but I don’t really see it happening. These teams will be average this year, they’ll give their fans some good football to watch, and that will be about it, unfortunately. But they are all certainly moving in the right direction and will hopefully continue to develop these positives towards the future.
Teams That Are Just Bad
Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns
These seven teams are the worst of the worst. From the outset, they have struggled and in more than a few cases, they’ve been embarrassed. The Rams, Redskins, Browns and Bucs all entered the season with small, but optimistic expectations, to at least show some improvement from the year before. The Browns are the closest of any of those four to showing improvement, but overall, these teams have been mediocre. The Jaguars, Raiders and Titans never had very high expectations, and they have not come close to proving anyone wrong thus far. These three teams have lost a combined 10 of 12 games by double digits this season, with the two single digit losses coming from the Raiders. Unfortunately for these seven teams, there isn’t much to look forward to for the rest of the season; no star waiting to come off the IR to save them or anything like that. The first firing of the season came from this group with Raiders Head Coach Dennis Allen being let go earlier this week to be replaced by Tony Sparano. If I were a Raiders fan, this wouldn’t do much for me; getting rid of a failing coach just to bring in a previously failed coach, sorry Oakland, it’s looking pretty bleak for you. The only thing this group of teams has to look forward to is watching a young quarterback getting a chance to play or seeing other young talent perform well. For a few of these teams, it’s not totally their fault. The Rams were supposed to improve substantially until their fragile quarterback Sam Bradford tore his ACL for the second season straight. The Browns were also looking to make strides, but the suspension of wide receiver Josh Gordon and the injury to running back Ben Tate have hurt their start. Some people had the Buccaneers in their playoff predictions, some people being myself. They have been nothing short of a disappointment this season, the lowest dip coming in a game against the Atlanta Falcons in which the Bucs gave up nearly 500 yards and lost 56-14. It’s a shame, for these three teams especially, that in such a weak year of football, they could not take advantage and contend for a playoff spot. These teams are not going to get too much better and I do not expect them to be in a different spot at the end of the season.
Teams That Are Just Plain Confusing
Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets
This group is the most populated and the most complicated. This group is the epitome of what is making this NFL season so hard to read. Most of these teams came into the season with high expectations and for the most part they haven’t met them, but they also haven’t not met them; Its an
awkward middle ground that. These teams have been puzzling in every strange and unpredictable step they’ve taken. The Packers, Bears, Panthers and Steelers have been erratic; playing strong games one week, and the next, dropping an egg against weaker teams. The Niners haven’t been able to play a full game all year. Playing strong first halves, but getting out scored 52-16 in second halves through the first four games of the season, they have scraped together a shaky 2-2 record. The Patriots, Falcons and Giants fluctuate from stellar, to helpless and back up again, forcing me and many other fans to the brink of insanity. The three most confusing situations to me are the Saints, Jets and Eagles.
The Saints entered the season with what many thought to be a revamped defense, an offense that was as potent as ever, and were included in many super bowl predictions. They are now at the bottom of the NFC South with a 1-3 record. We’ve seen their defense that was supposed to be so much better than in previous years give up 396.0 yards and allow 27.5 points per game to opposing offenses, witnessed a lackadaisical running game and seen Drew Brees lookslike an absolutely different quarterback outside of the Superdome. This start is certainly not ideal for the Saints, but being in such a weak division will hopefully allow for an opportunity them to recover from this poor start to the season.
I moved the Jets back and forth between this list and the “Bad Team” list about a 737 times
before settling on leaving them on this one. The forecast for this season for the Jets was very optimistic. Quarterback Geno Smith was entering his second season, their defense would be as strong as ever and the additions of running back Chris Johnson and wide receiver Eric Decker gave reason for Jets fans to feel confident. They started off the season with a win over the Raiders, but then proceeded to blow an 18 point lead in Green Bay, and have now lost consecutive games to the Bears and Lions. At 1-3, this team should be a lock for the “Bad Team” category, and I really wanted to put them there, but I
couldn’t. Unfortunately I think this Jets team is a good team that is plagued by a very tough schedule, and that’s something that could hold them back all season. I also don’t think there is much that Rex Ryan can do to turn things around. One thing that many people have wanted to see for a while is Michael Vick replacing Geno Smith at Quarterback. It’s a sexy idea, Michael Vick was a starting quarterback just last year. But in his time as a starting quarterback, he wasn’t exactly stellar. In his seven games as a starter last year, Vick led the league in turnovers, and seeing as how turnovers are one of the reasons the Jets might bench Geno Smith, it wouldn’t make much sense for Vick to get the nod either. Benching Smith would also crush his confidence and his development for the
future. This Jets team will be no cake walk for any team the rest of the way, but with such a tough schedule and iffy production at the quarterback position, I have trouble seeing them as a real contender for a playoff spot in the AFC, especially with their weak start.
The most enigmatic start to this season has been that of the Eagles. Like many of the teams on this list, they began the season touted as the favorite to win the NFC East and as a potential Super Bowl contender. With Nick Foles entering his first full season at quarterback, LeSean McCoy coming off a big
year, and the addition of Darren Sproles, the Eagles appeared to be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC. Four weeks later, it is not so cut. The Eagles fell behind by double digits in their first two games and made comebacks in each to win those games. They then played a tight game against the divisional rival Washington Redskins that they also won. At this point, it felt like the Eagles had
scraped up a few wins and were ready to hit their stride and start playing good football. Last week, they lost to the 49ers 26-21 with the Eagles offense accounting for none of the 21 points. Although they have lost just one game, the Eagles really are in bad shape. The Chip Kelley offense, which relies on its
running game, is looking shakier and shakier as LeSean McCoy continues to struggle, and we remember why Darren Sproles has never been a number one running back. There is still plenty of time for them to figure things out and get on track, especially with all of the talent on this team, but they need to figure things out, and do it fast if they want to keep up in the NFC East.
While this is the most confusing and odd group of teams in the league, and these teams are all in pretty bad shape, they can all turn things around. Despite all of the bad performances and weak showings, we need to remember that these are some of the leagues best teams and that stretches like this don’t often last. Some of these teams will realize that they just aren’t that good and
that this year is not their year, but by no means are any of these teams done. They all have the talent and the capability to work their quirks out and get back into the thick of the playoff race.
So this is where the NFL is at at the one quarter mark of the season; an
absolute mess of good teams, decent teams, uncertain teams, and doormats. As
bleak and boring as these first few weeks have been, I’m excited for the rest of
the season. One plus in all this chaos is that there fewer teams who are leaps
and bounds better than anyone, and way more teams that will be in it as the
season moves along. Knowing this league, these categories will be completely
different in four weeks for my mid-season report, and that’s what makes the sport
so great. So if your team is on one list, don’t expect them to be there in a few
weeks, unless you’re a Raiders/Jaguars/Buccaneers fan, because they will
definitely still be there at that point.
Through four weeks on the field, we have seen a mess of blowouts and snoozers in prime time, too many teams still looking like they were playing their fourth preseason game, and loads of parity. (I always hear people talking about how they want more parity in the NFL, bear in mind that these people are usually fans of the Jets and the Raiders, and that they think the league would be better if there weren’t dominant forces in it. Well here you go guys, this is parity-the Browns beating the Saints and Buccaneers beating the Steelers-not as much fun as you thought, right?) Talking to my brother Alex the other day, we realized how stale and kind of boring this season has been so far. With all of the off-field drama and uninteresting play, it has been an ugly blur of fantasy football bewilderment, underwhelming performances, and camera pans to a pissed off Bill Belichick on the sideline. At this point in the season, it’s still hard to group teams into specific places like contenders or doormats (well, we have the Buccaneers and Jaguars for that I guess). Even with all of the chaos and uncertainty we have seen thus far, right now every team falls into at least one of four different categories: Teams who are in good shape, bad teams who are overachieving, bad teams and teams that are just plain confusing. So at the one-quarter mark of the season, with those four groups in mind, I will attempt to assign each NFL team to its correct place.
Teams in Good, or At Least Halfway
Decent, Shape
Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, San Diego Chargers, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans
Notice how I changed the title of the category? I realized that at this point, as long as you have looked sort of okay, you’re good. There is a team in here starting a backup quarterback, and another that’s quarterbacked by Ryan Fitzpatrick, let’s just say this isn’t the most exclusive club. These are all teams who have come out ready to play football. Unlike most of the league, who’ve looked like they have been on autopilot, sleepwalking through the first few weeks, these teams have excelled from the start and will look to do so for the rest of the season. One thing that I noticed that each of these teams have in common is domination possession; according to Teamrankings.com, eight of the eleven teams on this list are in the top fifteen in the league in time of possession. This means that they are not only sustaining long drives, but they are also keeping opposing offenses off the field, and in turn, keeping them off the scoreboard. Another stat that sets this particular group apart is points per game; seven of the eleven teams in this group are in the top 15 in the league in PPG. Obviously the team that scores more, wins the game, and that’s exactly what these teams have done.
With the exception of a few teams in here who are still a little iffy and uncertain (Houston, Kansas City, Dallas), this group should still be, at the very least, hanging around towards the end of the season. That is not to say that Houston, Kansas City and Dallas won’t still be around, but their successes are a little more suspect.
The Texans are winning on the arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the shaky hamstrings of Arian Foster; their magic is bound to run out at some point.
In Dallas, there were a lot of questions prior to the season about their precarious defense, their inexperienced offensive line and their quarterback, Tony Romo, who was returning from back surgery. After four weeks they have a 3-1 record and are tied atop the NFC East with the Philadelphia Eagles. And much to the dismay of myself, and the numerous many others who were skeptical of Cowboys, they have answered all of those questions. The offensive line has been one of the best in football, Romo looks as though he hasn’t skipped a beat, the defense hasn’t looked terrible, and an added positive is the reemergence of running back DeMarco Murray, who to this point has been the best running back in the league. But I’m not quite convinced. My concern with them is that their defense will not hold up and that once Dallas begins to play the tougher part of it’s schedule, they will struggle to keep up. DeMarco Murray has carried the offense for them so far, which has kept Tony Romo from having to really throw the ball, and that’s why they have succeeded. Once they start playing more quality opponents, and they fall behind in games, the offense won’t be able to work its way back into games. You can’t run your way back into a game, and Romo just is not skilled enough to lead a big comeback against the leagues stronger teams.
To me, the most curious, but expectable start has been that of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs impressed everyone with their Monday Night Football performance in week four, walloping the Patriots 41-14. My concern with the Chiefs is their inconsistent offensive line, their inability to force turnovers on defense, and a problematic dependence on Jamaal Charles. Last season, Charles accounted for 37% of the Chiefs total offense, the highest percentage in the league. Prior to week four this season, Charles had accounted for just 24 yards of rushing, and despite a breakout on MNF, the team will struggle if they continue to rely so heavily on him and his fragile lower body. Their offensive line has struggled this season to keep quarterback Alex Smith upright and to make their blocks for Charles. Though they showed some improvement in that department during the MNF game, it is still a work in progress. On the defensive side of the ball, they are having trouble forcing turnovers and getting opposing offenses off the field. Prior to their last game, the defense had caused no turnovers and had a forced 3-and-out percentage of just 17.3%, good for 28th in the NFL according to sportingcharts.com. These factors may hinder the Chiefs long-term success, and will be an interesting storyline to follow.
Aside from these three teams, of whom I have faith in, just not total confidence, everyone on this list should remain atop the NFL, barring any deflating injuries or major collapses.
Bad Teams Who Are Overachieving
Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings
The teams in this group have come out, and against all of the negative preseason chatter, and or undesirable situations, they have won games. Each one winning games a little differently; the Bills with their running game, the Dolphins with their pass rush and solid offensive production, and the Vikings winning their games with, well, I’m not sure how they are winning. Other than running back Matt Asiata, who has seized the opportunity of Adrian Peterson’s suspension, and Teddy Bridgewater looking strong in his limited time, the Vikings have no clear strengths. Unfortunately, I don’t really see any of these teams doing much more than they have already done.
The Bills are currently sitting atop the AFC East- a fact I won’t soon forget from my friend Hurwitz- but rumors of tensions between head coach Doug Marrone and the Bills front office, and the benching of second year quarterback E.J. Manuel point at a downward spiral that has already begun with two straight losses. There is too much talent in Buffalo to count them out right now, but I see them as more of a 2-3 years down the road type of team, not a current contender.
The Dolphins are in a similar spot, currently at 2-2. We’ve seen two versions of Miami thus far; the Dolphins who beat up on the Patriots, and the Dolphins who were blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs in week two, the Chiefs playing without Jamaal Charles. While I see the Dolphins with a potential ceiling as a wild card team, I think a more realistic prediction is 7 to 9 wins. Uncertainty at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill, along with a few key injuries and a tough late season schedule lead me to think semi-pessimistically about the ‘Fins and their outlook the rest of the way.
Despite losing their first string quarterback and their star running back, the Vikings are somehow 2-2 and tied for second place in the NFC North. Running back Matt Asiata has taken advantage of the Adrian Peterson suspension, shining in all three of his games. Although I don’t really believe that this team will be hanging around as a real contender come December, playing in a division where no one seems to want to pull away and having a relatively weak schedule should benefit the Vikings and maybe even keep them around .500, a mark they have seen just twice since 2009.
The truth of the matter is that none of these teams are really that good. Whether it is a product of an easy schedule early on, or players outplaying their own ability, they have gotten off to strong starts. However with two of the three teams already playing their second string quarterbacks, and all of the teams being ravaged by injuries, I don’t see any of this sticking. The most likely to do so would be the Dolphins and they very well could do so if they survive the daunting schedule they have in November and December, and if they are able to stay healthy, but I don’t really see it happening. These teams will be average this year, they’ll give their fans some good football to watch, and that will be about it, unfortunately. But they are all certainly moving in the right direction and will hopefully continue to develop these positives towards the future.
Teams That Are Just Bad
Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns
These seven teams are the worst of the worst. From the outset, they have struggled and in more than a few cases, they’ve been embarrassed. The Rams, Redskins, Browns and Bucs all entered the season with small, but optimistic expectations, to at least show some improvement from the year before. The Browns are the closest of any of those four to showing improvement, but overall, these teams have been mediocre. The Jaguars, Raiders and Titans never had very high expectations, and they have not come close to proving anyone wrong thus far. These three teams have lost a combined 10 of 12 games by double digits this season, with the two single digit losses coming from the Raiders. Unfortunately for these seven teams, there isn’t much to look forward to for the rest of the season; no star waiting to come off the IR to save them or anything like that. The first firing of the season came from this group with Raiders Head Coach Dennis Allen being let go earlier this week to be replaced by Tony Sparano. If I were a Raiders fan, this wouldn’t do much for me; getting rid of a failing coach just to bring in a previously failed coach, sorry Oakland, it’s looking pretty bleak for you. The only thing this group of teams has to look forward to is watching a young quarterback getting a chance to play or seeing other young talent perform well. For a few of these teams, it’s not totally their fault. The Rams were supposed to improve substantially until their fragile quarterback Sam Bradford tore his ACL for the second season straight. The Browns were also looking to make strides, but the suspension of wide receiver Josh Gordon and the injury to running back Ben Tate have hurt their start. Some people had the Buccaneers in their playoff predictions, some people being myself. They have been nothing short of a disappointment this season, the lowest dip coming in a game against the Atlanta Falcons in which the Bucs gave up nearly 500 yards and lost 56-14. It’s a shame, for these three teams especially, that in such a weak year of football, they could not take advantage and contend for a playoff spot. These teams are not going to get too much better and I do not expect them to be in a different spot at the end of the season.
Teams That Are Just Plain Confusing
Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets
This group is the most populated and the most complicated. This group is the epitome of what is making this NFL season so hard to read. Most of these teams came into the season with high expectations and for the most part they haven’t met them, but they also haven’t not met them; Its an
awkward middle ground that. These teams have been puzzling in every strange and unpredictable step they’ve taken. The Packers, Bears, Panthers and Steelers have been erratic; playing strong games one week, and the next, dropping an egg against weaker teams. The Niners haven’t been able to play a full game all year. Playing strong first halves, but getting out scored 52-16 in second halves through the first four games of the season, they have scraped together a shaky 2-2 record. The Patriots, Falcons and Giants fluctuate from stellar, to helpless and back up again, forcing me and many other fans to the brink of insanity. The three most confusing situations to me are the Saints, Jets and Eagles.
The Saints entered the season with what many thought to be a revamped defense, an offense that was as potent as ever, and were included in many super bowl predictions. They are now at the bottom of the NFC South with a 1-3 record. We’ve seen their defense that was supposed to be so much better than in previous years give up 396.0 yards and allow 27.5 points per game to opposing offenses, witnessed a lackadaisical running game and seen Drew Brees lookslike an absolutely different quarterback outside of the Superdome. This start is certainly not ideal for the Saints, but being in such a weak division will hopefully allow for an opportunity them to recover from this poor start to the season.
I moved the Jets back and forth between this list and the “Bad Team” list about a 737 times
before settling on leaving them on this one. The forecast for this season for the Jets was very optimistic. Quarterback Geno Smith was entering his second season, their defense would be as strong as ever and the additions of running back Chris Johnson and wide receiver Eric Decker gave reason for Jets fans to feel confident. They started off the season with a win over the Raiders, but then proceeded to blow an 18 point lead in Green Bay, and have now lost consecutive games to the Bears and Lions. At 1-3, this team should be a lock for the “Bad Team” category, and I really wanted to put them there, but I
couldn’t. Unfortunately I think this Jets team is a good team that is plagued by a very tough schedule, and that’s something that could hold them back all season. I also don’t think there is much that Rex Ryan can do to turn things around. One thing that many people have wanted to see for a while is Michael Vick replacing Geno Smith at Quarterback. It’s a sexy idea, Michael Vick was a starting quarterback just last year. But in his time as a starting quarterback, he wasn’t exactly stellar. In his seven games as a starter last year, Vick led the league in turnovers, and seeing as how turnovers are one of the reasons the Jets might bench Geno Smith, it wouldn’t make much sense for Vick to get the nod either. Benching Smith would also crush his confidence and his development for the
future. This Jets team will be no cake walk for any team the rest of the way, but with such a tough schedule and iffy production at the quarterback position, I have trouble seeing them as a real contender for a playoff spot in the AFC, especially with their weak start.
The most enigmatic start to this season has been that of the Eagles. Like many of the teams on this list, they began the season touted as the favorite to win the NFC East and as a potential Super Bowl contender. With Nick Foles entering his first full season at quarterback, LeSean McCoy coming off a big
year, and the addition of Darren Sproles, the Eagles appeared to be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC. Four weeks later, it is not so cut. The Eagles fell behind by double digits in their first two games and made comebacks in each to win those games. They then played a tight game against the divisional rival Washington Redskins that they also won. At this point, it felt like the Eagles had
scraped up a few wins and were ready to hit their stride and start playing good football. Last week, they lost to the 49ers 26-21 with the Eagles offense accounting for none of the 21 points. Although they have lost just one game, the Eagles really are in bad shape. The Chip Kelley offense, which relies on its
running game, is looking shakier and shakier as LeSean McCoy continues to struggle, and we remember why Darren Sproles has never been a number one running back. There is still plenty of time for them to figure things out and get on track, especially with all of the talent on this team, but they need to figure things out, and do it fast if they want to keep up in the NFC East.
While this is the most confusing and odd group of teams in the league, and these teams are all in pretty bad shape, they can all turn things around. Despite all of the bad performances and weak showings, we need to remember that these are some of the leagues best teams and that stretches like this don’t often last. Some of these teams will realize that they just aren’t that good and
that this year is not their year, but by no means are any of these teams done. They all have the talent and the capability to work their quirks out and get back into the thick of the playoff race.
So this is where the NFL is at at the one quarter mark of the season; an
absolute mess of good teams, decent teams, uncertain teams, and doormats. As
bleak and boring as these first few weeks have been, I’m excited for the rest of
the season. One plus in all this chaos is that there fewer teams who are leaps
and bounds better than anyone, and way more teams that will be in it as the
season moves along. Knowing this league, these categories will be completely
different in four weeks for my mid-season report, and that’s what makes the sport
so great. So if your team is on one list, don’t expect them to be there in a few
weeks, unless you’re a Raiders/Jaguars/Buccaneers fan, because they will
definitely still be there at that point.
By Eli Lederman
On September 7th, the National Football league was celebrating a successful offseason in which they had seemingly dominated the news cycle for 28 straight weeks without a down of football being played. And they were able to do so while staying in a relatively good light publicly.[1] The league was also celebrating a strong opening day that included a few upsets and plenty of close games. The day was capped off by an entertaining Sunday Night Football game between the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts.
[1] Very, very relatively
On September 7th, all was well in the NFL.
By September 8th, the league was in the midst of its worst scandal since the 2012 New Orleans Saints bounty scandal. Just six hours after the conclusion of the Sunday night game in Indianapolis, TMZ released the now infamous video of Ray Rice striking his then-fiancée, now wife, Janay Rice, in a casino elevator. The disturbing video showed the 225-pound running back knocking his wife out cold with just one, ruthless punch. Rice, who had previously been suspended just two games for the incident, was suspended from football indefinitely that afternoon.
By Friday of that week, people were kind of, sort of, not really beginning to get over it. The night before we had seen Rice’s former team, the Baltimore Ravens, earn a hard fought win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and finally, it was feeling like we (the fans) and the NFL were about to return back to normal. Then around 4:00 PM Friday another NFL bombshell was dropped on us. We found out that Minnesota Vikings star Adrian Peterson had been indicted for abusing his four year-old son. The star running back was immediately deactivated for that Sunday and he watched from home as his team was blown out 30-7, by the New England Patriots.
On Monday morning, much to the dismay of the American public, Peterson was reactivated and was told he would be playing the next Sunday. 24-hours later, in the middle of the night,[2] the Vikings issued a laughable statement telling us that they had mishandled the situation and that Peterson would immediately be placed on the NFL’s exempt/commissioners permission list.[3]
[2]Talk about a squeamish way to admit that you were wrong. I imagine the conversation between Vikings owner Zygi Wilf and Commissioner Roger Goodell went something like this:
ZW- Hey Roger, so it turns out that the fans really seem to think that we messed up with this whole Peterson situation, how beating your child is wrong or something like that, who knows? So we are going to release a statement admitting that we are wrong and that we are going to deactivate Adrian.
RG- Hmmmmmm, that’s weird. Well I guess you have to do it if the fans think its wrong. But instead of releasing the statement during the day when everyone will see it, why don’t you wait until two in the morning, that’ll be better.
ZW- Okay, thanks Roger. You see? This is why we keep you around and pay you that $44 million salary, for your smart ideas like this.
Alright, I made up that last part, but I like to assume that the rest was spot on
[3] The last time were heard of this list was in 2007 after Michael Vick was imprisoned on dog fighting charges. According to the NFL and SB Nation’s Louis Bien, the exempt/commissioners permission list “is a special player status available to clubs only in unusual circumstances. The List includes those players who have been declared by the Commissioner to be temporarily exempt from counting within the Active List limit. Only the Commissioner has the authority to place a player on the Exempt List; clubs have no such authority, and no exemption, regardless of circumstances, is automatic. (Cont. next page)
The Commissioner also has the authority to determine in advance whether a player's time on the Exempt List will be finite or will continue until the Commissioner deems the exemption should be lifted and the player returned to the Active List" So it’s basically a voluntary leave of absence in which a player still receives his full salary. So Peterson will receive all $11.75 million of his salary this season for not playing. (Ed Werder, ESPN) Ah, to be an NFL football player…
The problem here is not the players, but the league itself. [4] In the past 6 months the league has publicly botched, mishandled and mismanaged every major disciplinary decision it has had to make. From the Josh Gordon-substance abuse fiasco, to Colts owner Jim Irsay’s relatively light punishment [5] to the Rice/Peterson debacles, the league has struggled each time to dole out an appropriate punishment, at least on their first try. For Gordon and Irsay, the processes just to decide their punishments were drawn out months longer than they should have been, and even after all of their deliberation, the punishments were inconsistent. In both the Rice and Peterson ordeals, the initial punishments given out by the league were quickly changed, mostly based on public reaction. This kind of reactionary form of discipline, coupled with a very inconsistent punishment system that seems to work on a case-to-case basis, is a problem for the league. The center of this problem is the league’s commissioner, Roger Goodell.
[4] They most certainly are a problem, just not the problem. Please, bear with me.
[5] So basically a team owner was pulled over going 100+ MPH, with a briefcase full of cash and a laundry bag filled with bottles of prescription drugs. (Gray) You’ve got to love a league where a player gets suspended a full season for smoking weed but a repeat offending owner is suspended six games and fined $500,000 (which to him is nothing) for felony drug possession.
In his 7 years as commissioner, Goodell has done a lot of good. He has turned the NFL into a moneymaking machine (not that it wasn’t one before him), dealt somewhat successfully with concussions and turned the league into a year-round experience, with headlines and coverage still leading Sportscenter and newspapers all over the country, even during the offseason. Goodell has brought the league to new heights that had never been reached by any other league previously. But despite all of that, his NFL tombstone will not read “Succeeded in bringing the league to an all-time high” or “Saved the league from concussions”.
It will read “Worst commissioner in NFL history” [6]
[6] This is no easy feat by the way. This is a league where in 1963, the commissioner allowed games to be played just two days after the JFK assassination
By the end of his tenure as league commissioner, whether it end in 10 years, or ten days, he won’t be remembered for any of his aforementioned accomplishments, but for his historically awful handling of many of the disciplinary decisions he has attempted to make.
You see, Roger Goodell tends to make his decisions, not with the right thing, or the best way to fix the problem, in mind, but with the best interests of the league and its image. Or at least that's our view of how he does it. That's a pretty terrible way to wield authority; and when he does attempt to gauge what the public’s response to a decision will be, his compass is usually way off. This is an ironic thing because over the last few weeks, he has done everything short of defecating on the NFL’s logo to disgrace the league. I get that he has been dealt a pretty bad hand, especially timing wise, with two of the league’s biggest stars being caught up in an off the field legal issues in the same week, but the way the Goodell has dealt with this is nearly as criminal as the crimes themselves. The past two weeks have been an absolute PR disaster for the league, and Goodell is the one to blame for that.
As a life long sports fanatic, I’ve gained a sixth sense for just about every little nuance and facet of the sporting world, both on and off the field. In my 16 years, I’ve lived through numerous sports scandals and issues. From Major League Baseball’s Mitchell Report [7], to the NCAA’s Penn State/Jerry Sandusky child sex abuse scandal in 2011, to the NBA and Donald Sterling’s racist comments last spring, I was there, watching Sportscenter or listening to sports radio, following the situation. I can usually tell pretty early whether or not an issue is going to become a big deal or not. One thing I have noticed with each of these wrongdoings is that the leagues/organizations that squash these issues firmly and consistently tend to be the one’s who come out of them looking at the very least okay. After the Mitchell Report, Major League Baseball did, well… um… nothing. They did absolutely nothing to get out in front of the problem or to discipline the guilty players who were still active. Other than a new performance enhancing drug policy, there was nothing but an ugly sequence in which certain accused players testified before congress, pleading their innocence to avail [8], and lots of booing at stadiums.
Nothing else. The MLB is still just getting over it, 7 years later. But in the case of the NCAA/Penn State and the NBA, they squashed their scandals immediately by showing little tolerance for things like that and at the same time setting an example for others. In both situations, the organizations involved came out smelling like a rose.
[7] Released in December of 2007, the Mitchell Report outed 89 former and then-current players as steroid users and blew up baseball for a few years.
[8] This was like watching a little kid trying to tell their parents that they had no clue what happened to the broken window as the parents give each other looks of “I can’t believe he is trying to pull this”. Except the kid was a number of grown men and the parents were congress. I guess one plus from these hearings was Roger Clemens giving us the grammar gem of the decade, using the word “misrembering”, to say that another player was not remembering the past correctly.
Right now, the NFL is on the wrong side of their situation. Roger Goodell had the opportunity to show the teams, players, owners and the fans where he stood on two major issues, domestic violence and child abuse, by making strong rulings in both the Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson cases. Instead he came across looking like he really didn’t care, but knew we, the fans, would, so he did something. But that something came just a little too late. Some argue that all that matters is that the players were disciplined, whether it have been on the first, second or third tries, and to some extent, that’s fair. But in dishing out two very lax punishments, Goodell has shown us just how tone-deaf and uncompassionate he truly is. Goodell sent a permanent (at least for me) message with his dealings of these two controversial situations; his actions flat-out telling us that the league really doesn’t care about anything their players do off the field until fans and the media do. In a situation that is crying for leadership, Goodell has done nothing to assert himself, which in the process sunk him and the league to the level of the players in question.
While Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson indefinitely sit on the exempt/commissioners permission list for their mistakes, I wonder if the commissioner himself should be right on there on the list with them for his?
On September 7th, the National Football league was celebrating a successful offseason in which they had seemingly dominated the news cycle for 28 straight weeks without a down of football being played. And they were able to do so while staying in a relatively good light publicly.[1] The league was also celebrating a strong opening day that included a few upsets and plenty of close games. The day was capped off by an entertaining Sunday Night Football game between the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts.
[1] Very, very relatively
On September 7th, all was well in the NFL.
By September 8th, the league was in the midst of its worst scandal since the 2012 New Orleans Saints bounty scandal. Just six hours after the conclusion of the Sunday night game in Indianapolis, TMZ released the now infamous video of Ray Rice striking his then-fiancée, now wife, Janay Rice, in a casino elevator. The disturbing video showed the 225-pound running back knocking his wife out cold with just one, ruthless punch. Rice, who had previously been suspended just two games for the incident, was suspended from football indefinitely that afternoon.
By Friday of that week, people were kind of, sort of, not really beginning to get over it. The night before we had seen Rice’s former team, the Baltimore Ravens, earn a hard fought win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and finally, it was feeling like we (the fans) and the NFL were about to return back to normal. Then around 4:00 PM Friday another NFL bombshell was dropped on us. We found out that Minnesota Vikings star Adrian Peterson had been indicted for abusing his four year-old son. The star running back was immediately deactivated for that Sunday and he watched from home as his team was blown out 30-7, by the New England Patriots.
On Monday morning, much to the dismay of the American public, Peterson was reactivated and was told he would be playing the next Sunday. 24-hours later, in the middle of the night,[2] the Vikings issued a laughable statement telling us that they had mishandled the situation and that Peterson would immediately be placed on the NFL’s exempt/commissioners permission list.[3]
[2]Talk about a squeamish way to admit that you were wrong. I imagine the conversation between Vikings owner Zygi Wilf and Commissioner Roger Goodell went something like this:
ZW- Hey Roger, so it turns out that the fans really seem to think that we messed up with this whole Peterson situation, how beating your child is wrong or something like that, who knows? So we are going to release a statement admitting that we are wrong and that we are going to deactivate Adrian.
RG- Hmmmmmm, that’s weird. Well I guess you have to do it if the fans think its wrong. But instead of releasing the statement during the day when everyone will see it, why don’t you wait until two in the morning, that’ll be better.
ZW- Okay, thanks Roger. You see? This is why we keep you around and pay you that $44 million salary, for your smart ideas like this.
Alright, I made up that last part, but I like to assume that the rest was spot on
[3] The last time were heard of this list was in 2007 after Michael Vick was imprisoned on dog fighting charges. According to the NFL and SB Nation’s Louis Bien, the exempt/commissioners permission list “is a special player status available to clubs only in unusual circumstances. The List includes those players who have been declared by the Commissioner to be temporarily exempt from counting within the Active List limit. Only the Commissioner has the authority to place a player on the Exempt List; clubs have no such authority, and no exemption, regardless of circumstances, is automatic. (Cont. next page)
The Commissioner also has the authority to determine in advance whether a player's time on the Exempt List will be finite or will continue until the Commissioner deems the exemption should be lifted and the player returned to the Active List" So it’s basically a voluntary leave of absence in which a player still receives his full salary. So Peterson will receive all $11.75 million of his salary this season for not playing. (Ed Werder, ESPN) Ah, to be an NFL football player…
The problem here is not the players, but the league itself. [4] In the past 6 months the league has publicly botched, mishandled and mismanaged every major disciplinary decision it has had to make. From the Josh Gordon-substance abuse fiasco, to Colts owner Jim Irsay’s relatively light punishment [5] to the Rice/Peterson debacles, the league has struggled each time to dole out an appropriate punishment, at least on their first try. For Gordon and Irsay, the processes just to decide their punishments were drawn out months longer than they should have been, and even after all of their deliberation, the punishments were inconsistent. In both the Rice and Peterson ordeals, the initial punishments given out by the league were quickly changed, mostly based on public reaction. This kind of reactionary form of discipline, coupled with a very inconsistent punishment system that seems to work on a case-to-case basis, is a problem for the league. The center of this problem is the league’s commissioner, Roger Goodell.
[4] They most certainly are a problem, just not the problem. Please, bear with me.
[5] So basically a team owner was pulled over going 100+ MPH, with a briefcase full of cash and a laundry bag filled with bottles of prescription drugs. (Gray) You’ve got to love a league where a player gets suspended a full season for smoking weed but a repeat offending owner is suspended six games and fined $500,000 (which to him is nothing) for felony drug possession.
In his 7 years as commissioner, Goodell has done a lot of good. He has turned the NFL into a moneymaking machine (not that it wasn’t one before him), dealt somewhat successfully with concussions and turned the league into a year-round experience, with headlines and coverage still leading Sportscenter and newspapers all over the country, even during the offseason. Goodell has brought the league to new heights that had never been reached by any other league previously. But despite all of that, his NFL tombstone will not read “Succeeded in bringing the league to an all-time high” or “Saved the league from concussions”.
It will read “Worst commissioner in NFL history” [6]
[6] This is no easy feat by the way. This is a league where in 1963, the commissioner allowed games to be played just two days after the JFK assassination
By the end of his tenure as league commissioner, whether it end in 10 years, or ten days, he won’t be remembered for any of his aforementioned accomplishments, but for his historically awful handling of many of the disciplinary decisions he has attempted to make.
You see, Roger Goodell tends to make his decisions, not with the right thing, or the best way to fix the problem, in mind, but with the best interests of the league and its image. Or at least that's our view of how he does it. That's a pretty terrible way to wield authority; and when he does attempt to gauge what the public’s response to a decision will be, his compass is usually way off. This is an ironic thing because over the last few weeks, he has done everything short of defecating on the NFL’s logo to disgrace the league. I get that he has been dealt a pretty bad hand, especially timing wise, with two of the league’s biggest stars being caught up in an off the field legal issues in the same week, but the way the Goodell has dealt with this is nearly as criminal as the crimes themselves. The past two weeks have been an absolute PR disaster for the league, and Goodell is the one to blame for that.
As a life long sports fanatic, I’ve gained a sixth sense for just about every little nuance and facet of the sporting world, both on and off the field. In my 16 years, I’ve lived through numerous sports scandals and issues. From Major League Baseball’s Mitchell Report [7], to the NCAA’s Penn State/Jerry Sandusky child sex abuse scandal in 2011, to the NBA and Donald Sterling’s racist comments last spring, I was there, watching Sportscenter or listening to sports radio, following the situation. I can usually tell pretty early whether or not an issue is going to become a big deal or not. One thing I have noticed with each of these wrongdoings is that the leagues/organizations that squash these issues firmly and consistently tend to be the one’s who come out of them looking at the very least okay. After the Mitchell Report, Major League Baseball did, well… um… nothing. They did absolutely nothing to get out in front of the problem or to discipline the guilty players who were still active. Other than a new performance enhancing drug policy, there was nothing but an ugly sequence in which certain accused players testified before congress, pleading their innocence to avail [8], and lots of booing at stadiums.
Nothing else. The MLB is still just getting over it, 7 years later. But in the case of the NCAA/Penn State and the NBA, they squashed their scandals immediately by showing little tolerance for things like that and at the same time setting an example for others. In both situations, the organizations involved came out smelling like a rose.
[7] Released in December of 2007, the Mitchell Report outed 89 former and then-current players as steroid users and blew up baseball for a few years.
[8] This was like watching a little kid trying to tell their parents that they had no clue what happened to the broken window as the parents give each other looks of “I can’t believe he is trying to pull this”. Except the kid was a number of grown men and the parents were congress. I guess one plus from these hearings was Roger Clemens giving us the grammar gem of the decade, using the word “misrembering”, to say that another player was not remembering the past correctly.
Right now, the NFL is on the wrong side of their situation. Roger Goodell had the opportunity to show the teams, players, owners and the fans where he stood on two major issues, domestic violence and child abuse, by making strong rulings in both the Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson cases. Instead he came across looking like he really didn’t care, but knew we, the fans, would, so he did something. But that something came just a little too late. Some argue that all that matters is that the players were disciplined, whether it have been on the first, second or third tries, and to some extent, that’s fair. But in dishing out two very lax punishments, Goodell has shown us just how tone-deaf and uncompassionate he truly is. Goodell sent a permanent (at least for me) message with his dealings of these two controversial situations; his actions flat-out telling us that the league really doesn’t care about anything their players do off the field until fans and the media do. In a situation that is crying for leadership, Goodell has done nothing to assert himself, which in the process sunk him and the league to the level of the players in question.
While Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson indefinitely sit on the exempt/commissioners permission list for their mistakes, I wonder if the commissioner himself should be right on there on the list with them for his?
By Eli Lederman
No one looks as bad as Ray Rice right now, I get that, I truly don’t believe that a man can stoop lower than physically abusing a woman, but his former employers are certainly giving him a run for his money.
In the aftermath of a situation in which the 225-pound running back punched out his then-fiancée, the league and the team that employed him succeeded in coming across as his near equal in the pathetic art of cowardice. Seven months after a video that showed Rice dragging Janay Palmer -- then his unconscious victim, now his wife -- out of an elevator in Atlantic City, and two months after woeful commissioner Roger Goodell suspending him an insignificant two games for his actions, he finally faced some real consequences today. The Ravens announced via its team Twitter account this afternoon that Rice had been released. The NFL proceeded to jump on the pile, with it's chance to make an honest, enduring stand against domestic violence long since past, confirming that the player had been suspended indefinitely.
And to think all it took to get Rice out of the league, most likely for good, was approximately 30 weeks of collective outrage at the two-game ban among men and women from every demographic save for those with a blind rooting interest for a certain despicable football franchise, and, oh yes, yesterday’s release of a previously unseen and horrifyingly graphic video of Rice's two-punch knockout via the website TMZ.
Yep, that's all.
Anyone who wants to give the league and the Ravens credit for doing the right thing has not been paying attention. The video was so incriminatory, with Rice seeming almost casual in his violence, that they had no other choice.
The Ravens' choice to announce Rice's release on Twitter is pretty amusing considering that this particular social media format has been the outlet for the franchise's special brand of insular insensitivity and stupidity over the last seven months. Twitter is where their public relations buffoon Kevin Byrne made us aware of his "I Like Ray Rice" column on the Ravens' website, which includes this gem of a lead: (You'll notice if you click on the link, the column is now gone)
“If you had asked me on Feb. 1 to name five Ravens players I would never expect to receive a call at 3:00 in the morning about doing something illegal, Ray Rice would be on the list – EASILY.”
I'm not sure if we should take that as Byrne defending Rice or an indictment of 48 other Ravens. But I do know this: I have stared at this nugget from the Ravens twitter for the last five minutes:
"Janay Rice says she deeply regrets the role that she played the night of the incident"
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) May 23, 2014
I can’t decide whether its more tone-deaf or insensitive?
How about both?
To suggest that his fiancée-turned-knockout-victim-turned-wife had anything do with winding up unconscious on an elevator floor is inexcusable. If you hit a woman, it's never "out of character." It is your character, no matter what else you have done in your life.
The only question I want answered in the coming days and weeks is this: Did Roger Goodell see the video that came to light today before he doled out Rice's two-game ban in July?
Because if he did see it before then, he's finished. Not that it would be any sort of loss for anybody. I'm pretty sure the NFL could find some other smug suit to accept his $44 million salary. Perhaps even one with a trace of a conscience.
Among his flaws, this is among the most damaging: Goodell has a habit for making decisions and dishing out punishment based on what he believes the public perception might be. Or at least that's our perception of how he does it. That's a pretty lousy way to wield authority; and when he does attempt to gauge what the public’s response to a decision will be, his compass is usually way off.
Every action of Goodell's has one purpose; ultimately: Guarding the NFL's best interests, or, as he likes to put it, "protecting the shield."
Well this time around, the league, and the Ravens, took a collective crap on “the shield” in their attempt at handling the Ray Rice situation. From the initially lenient punishment of Rice, to what now could be another scandal as we try to find out whether or not the league had seen the video prior to today, the management of this ordeal has been a mess from the start. The behavior of the two organizations today, both the Baltimore Ravens and the NFL, were reactionary. But not reactions to what Ray Rice did, but reactions to the negative response that those actions brought.
Given a choice, the Ravens and the NFL defended Ray Rice. Given no other choice, they released him.
By Eli Lederman
This generation of football players is in a position to be the first to handle head injuries the correct way, to comprehend the risks, and to act appropriately to protect themselves, their careers and their futures. And Wes Welker has the opportunity to become the face of that movement-by saying enough is enough.
If Wes doesn’t play another down of football ever again, and makes the decision to retire right now at the age of 33, it would be a shame for the league, the fans and the dark side and their super bowl hopes…whoops sorry, I meant the Denver Broncos. But if retiring now preserves Wes Welker’s life years from now - or at least gives him a chance at a happy one - then we should all prepare to deal with it.
We can only hope that it isn’t already too late. In the second quarter of the Broncos preseason game last week, Wes Welker took a brutal shot to the head courtesy of Texans safety D.J. Swearinger; leaving him with his third official concussion since last November. This hit may very well be the one that forces Welker out of football for good. Or at least it should be.
At this point, there is no possible way to know exactly how much permanent damage the first two concussions have already had on his brain, and how those concussions may have affected his current one. Assuming that the Broncos have followed all league protocols and current medical knowledge to treat him and keep him off the field until he is fully recovered, while also assuming that the oversized helmet, which makes Welker look more like Rick Moranis’ Dark Helmet character in Spaceballs than a football player, has protected him as much as it can, Welker may have already suffered enough damage for his future to be tragically impaired.
Whatever Wes knows about concussions, however, is far superior to what those in generations past knew, before all of the studies that showed us CTE in deceased players, and the tests that reveal symptoms in living retired players. Before all the lawsuits and settlements being argued across the country and the documentaries exposing the truth. And everyone knows how players in the very recent past-Dave Duerson and an all-time favorite of mine, Junior Seau, among them- who took their own lives when the after-effects of their brain injuries overtook them. There is no excuse for Wes Welker, he knows.
Whether you really believe that the players of the past really didn’t know what they were getting into and had realities withheld from them, or that they are full of crap and are just trying to make some money through a class action suit, players of today absolutely know. That knowledge, then, can lead to a break in the cycle that has controlled football forever: that remaining on the field is all that matters, and that sacrificing their later years for a lengthier career is a worthwhile trade-off. He wouldn’t be the first of this group to say that he’s had enough with concussions; not even the first this year, as Sidney Rice, a former Seahawks wide receiver, walked away from the sport last month. In all, eight players have retired this offseason before their thirtieth birthdays.
Welker has beaten the odds and then some, particularly for an undrafted player, playing in five Pro Bowls and making three Super Bowl trips throughout his eleven years of pro football. At this point, everything I’m reading and hearing points to Wes trying to continue playing, and that’s his own prerogative, we live in America, do what you want. But what I don’t want to see, is a class action suit against the NFL ten years down the road with Wes Welker as the face of it when he had the opportunity, in 2014, to become the face of a different movement, the movement of those who knew when to hang it up for the sake of their long-term mental health. I know how I feel about the situation; and we’ll see what Wes decides to do. If he decides to continue playing, he will be jeopardizing his future health and a chance at a normal life.
Right now, Wes Welker can retire as the best player of his era to know when to stop for his own good.
By Eli Lederman
Last August, when myself and every other Mets fan learned about the partial tear in Matt Harvey’s Ulnar collateral ligament, it was an emotional kick to the groin that took us all by surprise. It was very “Classic Mets”; Young pitcher emerges as a star, fans fall in love with him, he becomes a beaming light for the future… and on queue as always, something goes wrong. Since then, there has been a hell storm of criticism thrown at Harvey, mostly over his personal time and how he spends it. The height of this criticism came from none other than Mike Lupica, the notorious Daily News curmudgeon and the president of the unofficial anti-Harvey fan club, who wrote this about Harvey in his August 17th article about the recovering star:
“One of these days, Matt Harvey needs to remember — and that probably means before he hurts his arm again — that his job is to be a star young baseball pitcher, not some sort of needy celebrity who acts as if he gets the bends when he is out of the spotlight for very long…he really needs to stop acting like a spoiled child, even if he believes — because he absolutely has that right — to think he knows more about his arm than anybody else except his doctors; and that it is his arm, not theirs. Or, just going off what we have seen from Harvey over the last 12 months, maybe the kid thinks he knows more than the doctors, too”
Hold on one second while I go get some water for Lupica’s high horse. Alright, I’m back. Throughout the article, Lupica trashes Harvey for his eagerness to get back onto the field (Harvey pushed to not have Tommy John surgery in order to attempt to play this season, and even after he did have that surgery, he has taken a very aggressive approach to his rehab) and his personal life (Since he broke out last spring, Harvey has appeared in the ESPN Magazine: The Body issue, dated a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model, has had a minor misstep on Twitter, he’s been spotted at numerous Rangers and Knicks games and other places around New York City). These two objections are the ammunition that has been used over and over again by Harvey’s nitpickers and it needs to stop right now for three reasons:
Reason #1- God forbid a guy wants to get back on the field
From the day Matt Harvey learned of his injury, to the day he decided to get Tommy John, he was adamant about getting back on the field as soon as he could. And I’ll admit that this strong desire to get back onto the mound has posed a minor problem for Matt and the Mets this winter. Between vacillating reports coming from both camps about how he would rehab and the timetable for his return, Harvey and his team haven’t quite been on the same page at all times. As a fan, this troubles me, but this is more of the team’s problem than it is Matt Harvey’s. In the end, the Met’s dictate when Harvey throws off a mound, when he makes his first rehab start and when he does everything else involved with his recovery. Who are these critics to grumble about a 25 year-old who wants to get back on the field?
Let’s take a look at the Texas Rangers right now. Their ace, Yu Darvish is currently dealing minor elbow inflammation, minor. His 15-day stint on the DL should have had him back on the field on Friday. But with the Rangers at the cellar of the MLB, and his team in a tailspin with or without him, Darvish has milked his injury all the way to not pitching again this season. While I totally agree with being careful with pitchers, especially when the injury has anything to do with an elbow, I struggle with the fact Darvish has effectively quite on his team while guys like Adrian Beltre and Shin-Soo Choo are going out there everyday and playing with shin splints and bone spurs.
So you know what? I love the fact that my ace wants to get back out there and start pitching again. Who would you rather have competing for your team every five days as your frontline starter? The guy who quits on his team over minor inflammation in his elbow, or the guy whose competitive drive is so strong that he is dying just to get back out on the mound? That’s what I thought. So for all of the pundits out there who will pick Matt Harvey apart this winter, pick him apart for his personal life, but not his yearning to get back on the field as soon as he can.
Reason # 2- Major League Baseball needs more personalities
Scratch that last sentence; I only meant 50% of it. Right now the MLB has a problem, and that problem is youth interest. Baseball is competing with the other, more exciting leagues that have faster paced games, significantly shorter seasons and far more action. This is like drag racing in a 1960’s Chevy and trying to beat two brand new 2014 sports cars, you just won’t win. The MLB has their title as America’s past time and the immense history of the game as their main points of attraction, and those things are great for people who love the game, but you can’t pull in youth interest with that alone when you are competing with the more exciting NBA and NFL. But there is one other thing that really separates those two leagues from the MLB, and it’s actually the piece that could save the MLB: Personalities.
You see, Major League Baseball is boring right now. For those casual fans, or just non-diehards, who don’t appreciate the little nuances of baseball like I do, there isn’t much else to grab on to. There are no slam-dunks, no touchdowns, no big tackles, just pitching, fielding, batting and a whole lot of wasted time in between. And there are also no relatable personalities for fans to watch and latch on to. Or so it seems.
When you have such a history rich sport, where things have been done the same way for almost an entire century, it hard to embrace change. But that’s exactly what needs to be done. Recently players like David Ortiz and Yasiel Puig have been chastised for their unorthodox style of play; Ortiz with his home-run bat flips and Puig with his flashy plays in the field and his own bat flips. These guys are constantly upbraided for the things they do on the field because their actions tend to be so anti-baseball. But that’s the problem, the MLB needs these guys to become the face of their leagues, and let their personalities shine, yet every time Puig does something flashy on the field, he ends up riding the pine as an “old” baseball guy in Don Mattingly just doesn’t get it. The MLB needs to let all of their big personalities shine in order to get back on the levels of the NFL and the NBA. (Well that and faster games, a pitch clock and a shortened season, but personalities would be a start)
So Matt Harvey falls into this how? Well, like I mentioned before, Matt Harvey’s persona has skyrocketed since April of 2013. From magazine profiles that outlined how he spends time with his friends, to the numerous times we’ve seen him at Rangers games, to his on again and off again relationship with SI swimsuit model Anne Vyalitsyna, Harvey has become one of New York City’s biggest celebrities in a span of about a year and half. The MLB should take advantage of that; they need more guys like him. All of the writers can continue to rag on Matt Harvey for his off the field endeavors, but that’s exactly what the MLB needs. Until the league can embrace it’s big personalities, and utilize that, they’ll continue to fall further and further into the abyss. And Matt Harvey is part of the answer.
Reason #3- It could be so, so much worse
For all of the “terrible” things Matt Harvey has done in the past year, from minor disagreements with the Mets over his rehab, to his personal life that we all wish we were living, it could be so much worse. Given the crimes we hear about on a daily basis in this country, is what Harvey is doing so terrible? Fine, I’ll admit that that’s a little distant, so I’ll make it more relative. Take a look at Cleveland Brown’s wide receiver Josh Gordon; the man has been arrested twice in the past year for driving under the influence of, and the possession of, marijuana. He has put his own life, and the lives of many more people, in danger without any regard for his, or anyone else’s, safety. Then you have Ray Rice, Greg Hardy and Ray McDonald, all three either dealing with or having dealt with domestic violence incidents. These guys physically hurt a partner, which to me is an indefensible crime. This is why I feel that it is so unbelievably unfair to penalize Matt Harvey for anything he’s done when you have other athletes out there committing real crimes. If the worst thing Matt Harvey has done off the field is disagree with his organization or spent a little too much time in the public eye, I can live with that. The faultfinders like Lupica need to really reassess the things that are truly objectionable in life before they continue disparaging the tiniest little facets of Matt Harvey’s life. Isn’t Matt Harvey just doing exactly what we’d expect any 25 year-old who is making six figures and living in New York City to do? Before we start ripping on Matt Harvey for every little thing he does, think about the things other athletes are doing, and how harmless his actions really are.
Look, I get that Matt Harvey hasn’t been the smoothest while working with the Mets in his recovery, and for his own sake, he could probably work a little bit harder to stay out of the public eye, but in the scheme of things, he’s doing just fine. The critics can write whatever they want and criticize him for every little thing, but that isn’t going to, and shouldn’t, change the way he is living his life. All he has done is have a little fun as New York City’s newest celebrity; no DUI’s, no arrests, nothing worse than being at a bar or a Rangers game. So listen Matt, ignore the writers and all the garbage that will come out of their mouths, get your arm ready, pitch when we tell you to and it’ll all be fine.
The defense rests.
Last August, when myself and every other Mets fan learned about the partial tear in Matt Harvey’s Ulnar collateral ligament, it was an emotional kick to the groin that took us all by surprise. It was very “Classic Mets”; Young pitcher emerges as a star, fans fall in love with him, he becomes a beaming light for the future… and on queue as always, something goes wrong. Since then, there has been a hell storm of criticism thrown at Harvey, mostly over his personal time and how he spends it. The height of this criticism came from none other than Mike Lupica, the notorious Daily News curmudgeon and the president of the unofficial anti-Harvey fan club, who wrote this about Harvey in his August 17th article about the recovering star:
“One of these days, Matt Harvey needs to remember — and that probably means before he hurts his arm again — that his job is to be a star young baseball pitcher, not some sort of needy celebrity who acts as if he gets the bends when he is out of the spotlight for very long…he really needs to stop acting like a spoiled child, even if he believes — because he absolutely has that right — to think he knows more about his arm than anybody else except his doctors; and that it is his arm, not theirs. Or, just going off what we have seen from Harvey over the last 12 months, maybe the kid thinks he knows more than the doctors, too”
Hold on one second while I go get some water for Lupica’s high horse. Alright, I’m back. Throughout the article, Lupica trashes Harvey for his eagerness to get back onto the field (Harvey pushed to not have Tommy John surgery in order to attempt to play this season, and even after he did have that surgery, he has taken a very aggressive approach to his rehab) and his personal life (Since he broke out last spring, Harvey has appeared in the ESPN Magazine: The Body issue, dated a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model, has had a minor misstep on Twitter, he’s been spotted at numerous Rangers and Knicks games and other places around New York City). These two objections are the ammunition that has been used over and over again by Harvey’s nitpickers and it needs to stop right now for three reasons:
Reason #1- God forbid a guy wants to get back on the field
From the day Matt Harvey learned of his injury, to the day he decided to get Tommy John, he was adamant about getting back on the field as soon as he could. And I’ll admit that this strong desire to get back onto the mound has posed a minor problem for Matt and the Mets this winter. Between vacillating reports coming from both camps about how he would rehab and the timetable for his return, Harvey and his team haven’t quite been on the same page at all times. As a fan, this troubles me, but this is more of the team’s problem than it is Matt Harvey’s. In the end, the Met’s dictate when Harvey throws off a mound, when he makes his first rehab start and when he does everything else involved with his recovery. Who are these critics to grumble about a 25 year-old who wants to get back on the field?
Let’s take a look at the Texas Rangers right now. Their ace, Yu Darvish is currently dealing minor elbow inflammation, minor. His 15-day stint on the DL should have had him back on the field on Friday. But with the Rangers at the cellar of the MLB, and his team in a tailspin with or without him, Darvish has milked his injury all the way to not pitching again this season. While I totally agree with being careful with pitchers, especially when the injury has anything to do with an elbow, I struggle with the fact Darvish has effectively quite on his team while guys like Adrian Beltre and Shin-Soo Choo are going out there everyday and playing with shin splints and bone spurs.
So you know what? I love the fact that my ace wants to get back out there and start pitching again. Who would you rather have competing for your team every five days as your frontline starter? The guy who quits on his team over minor inflammation in his elbow, or the guy whose competitive drive is so strong that he is dying just to get back out on the mound? That’s what I thought. So for all of the pundits out there who will pick Matt Harvey apart this winter, pick him apart for his personal life, but not his yearning to get back on the field as soon as he can.
Reason # 2- Major League Baseball needs more personalities
Scratch that last sentence; I only meant 50% of it. Right now the MLB has a problem, and that problem is youth interest. Baseball is competing with the other, more exciting leagues that have faster paced games, significantly shorter seasons and far more action. This is like drag racing in a 1960’s Chevy and trying to beat two brand new 2014 sports cars, you just won’t win. The MLB has their title as America’s past time and the immense history of the game as their main points of attraction, and those things are great for people who love the game, but you can’t pull in youth interest with that alone when you are competing with the more exciting NBA and NFL. But there is one other thing that really separates those two leagues from the MLB, and it’s actually the piece that could save the MLB: Personalities.
You see, Major League Baseball is boring right now. For those casual fans, or just non-diehards, who don’t appreciate the little nuances of baseball like I do, there isn’t much else to grab on to. There are no slam-dunks, no touchdowns, no big tackles, just pitching, fielding, batting and a whole lot of wasted time in between. And there are also no relatable personalities for fans to watch and latch on to. Or so it seems.
When you have such a history rich sport, where things have been done the same way for almost an entire century, it hard to embrace change. But that’s exactly what needs to be done. Recently players like David Ortiz and Yasiel Puig have been chastised for their unorthodox style of play; Ortiz with his home-run bat flips and Puig with his flashy plays in the field and his own bat flips. These guys are constantly upbraided for the things they do on the field because their actions tend to be so anti-baseball. But that’s the problem, the MLB needs these guys to become the face of their leagues, and let their personalities shine, yet every time Puig does something flashy on the field, he ends up riding the pine as an “old” baseball guy in Don Mattingly just doesn’t get it. The MLB needs to let all of their big personalities shine in order to get back on the levels of the NFL and the NBA. (Well that and faster games, a pitch clock and a shortened season, but personalities would be a start)
So Matt Harvey falls into this how? Well, like I mentioned before, Matt Harvey’s persona has skyrocketed since April of 2013. From magazine profiles that outlined how he spends time with his friends, to the numerous times we’ve seen him at Rangers games, to his on again and off again relationship with SI swimsuit model Anne Vyalitsyna, Harvey has become one of New York City’s biggest celebrities in a span of about a year and half. The MLB should take advantage of that; they need more guys like him. All of the writers can continue to rag on Matt Harvey for his off the field endeavors, but that’s exactly what the MLB needs. Until the league can embrace it’s big personalities, and utilize that, they’ll continue to fall further and further into the abyss. And Matt Harvey is part of the answer.
Reason #3- It could be so, so much worse
For all of the “terrible” things Matt Harvey has done in the past year, from minor disagreements with the Mets over his rehab, to his personal life that we all wish we were living, it could be so much worse. Given the crimes we hear about on a daily basis in this country, is what Harvey is doing so terrible? Fine, I’ll admit that that’s a little distant, so I’ll make it more relative. Take a look at Cleveland Brown’s wide receiver Josh Gordon; the man has been arrested twice in the past year for driving under the influence of, and the possession of, marijuana. He has put his own life, and the lives of many more people, in danger without any regard for his, or anyone else’s, safety. Then you have Ray Rice, Greg Hardy and Ray McDonald, all three either dealing with or having dealt with domestic violence incidents. These guys physically hurt a partner, which to me is an indefensible crime. This is why I feel that it is so unbelievably unfair to penalize Matt Harvey for anything he’s done when you have other athletes out there committing real crimes. If the worst thing Matt Harvey has done off the field is disagree with his organization or spent a little too much time in the public eye, I can live with that. The faultfinders like Lupica need to really reassess the things that are truly objectionable in life before they continue disparaging the tiniest little facets of Matt Harvey’s life. Isn’t Matt Harvey just doing exactly what we’d expect any 25 year-old who is making six figures and living in New York City to do? Before we start ripping on Matt Harvey for every little thing he does, think about the things other athletes are doing, and how harmless his actions really are.
Look, I get that Matt Harvey hasn’t been the smoothest while working with the Mets in his recovery, and for his own sake, he could probably work a little bit harder to stay out of the public eye, but in the scheme of things, he’s doing just fine. The critics can write whatever they want and criticize him for every little thing, but that isn’t going to, and shouldn’t, change the way he is living his life. All he has done is have a little fun as New York City’s newest celebrity; no DUI’s, no arrests, nothing worse than being at a bar or a Rangers game. So listen Matt, ignore the writers and all the garbage that will come out of their mouths, get your arm ready, pitch when we tell you to and it’ll all be fine.
The defense rests.
By Eli Lederman
When I first heard about a Kevin Love to Cleveland trade, which included Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett, it was a bittersweet moment for me. A smile ran across my face at the image of LeBron James actually getting to the play the wing again, while Kyrie Irving handled the ball and Love played in the post But at the same time, my heart sank at the idea of a LeBron/Wiggins defensive tandem wreaking havoc on the NBA being stripped away from me and every other NBA fan who appreciates good defense. Those two would have arguably been the most athletic defensive duo that the NBA has ever seen. [1] Now with the trade finalized and the Cleveland Cavaliers receiving Kevin Love, the Minnesota Timberwolves receiving Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett and Thaddeus Young, and the Philadelphia 76ers Receiving Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Alexy Shved and a 2015 first-round draft pick , the inevitable talk now is concerning who won the trade.
[1] With Knicks era Zach Randolph and any era Eddie Curry being the least athletic defensive duo the NBA has ever seen. Not even arguable.
If I were talk to someone who has never seen a single game of basketball in their entire life, and I explained the trade to them this way: one team got a 25 year-old star [2] who immediately makes them more of a title favorite than they already are, while the other team got two unproven talents and an average 26 year-old, who would they say won the trade? They would almost definitely say the team who got the star player did. As would many other NBA fans. I mean, when a team can set themselves up as a major contender for the next five-eight years with one trade, they have to be the winner right? I’m not so sure.
[2] Notice how I don’t say superstar?
While Minnesota may have just given up their franchise player, for the second time in the past seven years I might add, I think that most Timberwolves fans would say that they are pretty pleased with what they got in return. Whenever a team loses its franchise player, they almost always regress. You can look just about anywhere and I guarantee that it has happened there. Going all the way back to when Magic left the Lakers, or the Bulls post MJ or to just a few years ago when LeBron ditched Cleveland, all three franchises took a nose dive after losing their signature stars. This time it’s different. I firmly believe that the Minnesota Timberwolves are better off now than they were during any point throughout Kevin Love’s tenure there.
First off, this organization was really going nowhere with Kevin Love as their star. Love’s career winning percentage is a startling .324% and his team has not once, in his six seasons, made the playoffs or even finished at or above .500%. While it is easy to point at Love’s supporting cast over that period of time and blame that, I’m not going to let him off that easily. So to prove that theory wrong, lets compare him to another, it hurts to say it, failed, former Timberwolves star, Kevin Garnett. Despite being one of the top five power forwards of all time, KG could never quite put it together during his time in Minneapolis. That is where the similarities end; I cringe every time I hear the Garnett example being used as means to bail Love out for his lack of winning throughout his tenure in Minnesota. Along with having a career .541% winning percentage as a T-Wolf, KG led the franchise to all eight of its playoff appearances, once reaching the Western Conference Finals. For me that’s the kicker. That Western Conference Finals squad did include former all-stars Sam Cassell and Wally Szczerbiak and was probably the best that KG played with in Minnesota. But on that team, he was also saddled with sharing the frontcourt with centers Mark Madsen, Michael Olowokandi, Ervin “No Magic”[3] Johnson, Oliver Miller and Gary Trent. Not exactly Murder’s Row. While I will concede that this line-up was better than any of the line-ups that Kevin Love was forced the play with over these last six years, Love’s teams tend to be better than a majority of Garnett’s, yet KG made eight more playoff appearances. Fishy no?
[3] By far one of my favorite NBA nicknames of all time along with the Rolls-Royce duo (Walt “Clyde” Frazier and Earl “The Pearl” Monroe), which was solely based on the fact that they both drove Rolls-Royces. These guys were so good they had two nicknames.
I honestly never had faith in Kevin Love on his own giving Minnesota more than big numbers and a great player to root for. Not a bad package, but not what I want from a superstar[4]. I am not here to bash Kevin Love, because I love his game; his rebounding skills and his unique shooting abilities are one of my favorite combos in the NBA. And I also understand that you can’t win titles in the NBA on your own, even LeBron couldn’t do it, but if you are a superstar, you should be able to at least once will a team to the playoffs, and if not that, a .500% record. So I’m happy for Kevin Love finally getting to play with a few all-stars[5] and that he now has a chance to win, but I’m even happier for Minnesota being able to get rid of him.
[4] Which, like I said before, I’m not totally convinced Kevin Love is.
[5] He has never played with one.
Now let’s talk about what the T-Wolves are getting out of all of this. The additions of Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett are breaths of fresh air into a franchise who aside from drafting Garnett, Szczerbiak and Love have used their sixteen other lottery picks either drafting busts or trading away players (Ray Allen, Brandon Roy, O.J. Mayo, Mario Chalmers and Ty Lawson) who would later, at the very least, become NBA starters. Adding Wiggins give the T-Wolves another young player with star potential similar to their previous situations with Garnett and Love, but this time it’s a little different. When Kevin Garnett was drafted in 1995, Minnesota was saddled with multiple iffy long-term contracts with guys like Christian Laettner and Michael Williams. Not bad players, just not guys you can win with as you’re supporting cast. The same was true when they drafted Kevin Love in 2008; guys like Jason Collins and Brian Cardinal were taking up large chunks of cap space leaving little money for the team to use to surround Kevin Love with a halfway decent supporting cast.
Now just a few months after the 2014 draft, one of the most loaded drafts in years, the Wolves have that drafts first overall pick. While Andrew Wiggins didn’t put up outrageously gaudy numbers in his one season at Kansas, 17.1 PPG and 5.9 RPG, he showed all of us his strong defensive talents, his basketball IQ and his knack for making big plays. When he was drafted earlier this summer by the Cleveland Cavaliers, the thought of him developing along side Kyrie Irving, and the two of them forming one of the NBA’s most talented backcourts had most NBA fans salivating. Then when LeBron made his decision to return home to Cleveland, the idea of those three terrorizing the Eastern Conference together kept me and all of my fellow Eastern Conference fans up at night. But now that the trade is complete, and Wiggins is on the Timberwolves, I think this is the best possible situation for him. Andrew Wiggins is now on a team where he will have the full opportunity to blossom into whatever player he is going become, without the pressure of having to win right away[6].
[6] The Timberwolves haven’t sniffed the playoffs since 2004; I think they can wait another few years.
But this time around, it feels a little different than the other two times the Timberwolves have had franchise players, at least to me. And the reasoning for that is two-fold.
First off, the T-Wolves are actually in a position now to make moves to surround a young star with other talent because for the first time in the past 15 years they aren’t encumbered by big, long-term contracts. Going into the 2014-2015 season, they have just two contracts that last over two years from now, and those same two contracts are the only ones that will demand higher than seven million dollars. Those contracts belong to Center Nikola Pekovic and Guard Kevin Martin. Past that, their longest deals are confined to rookies and players still playing on their rookie deals. Ricky Rubio has one year left on his contract, and depending on how this season goes for both him and rookie guard Zach LaVine, it may be his last in Minnesota. Otherwise, forwards Chase Budinger and Corey Brewer will both be free agents after the 2015-2016 season. This gives the Timberwolves a golden opportunity to not only get rid of older, less effective players, but to add significant pieces to their team toward building a potential contender. Obviously, Minneapolis doesn’t have the same attraction that Los Angeles, New York, South Beach and other NBA cities that pull major free agents possess, but if the organization can build a strong enough team through the draft, and guys like Wiggins and Bennett can develop into frontline players, the Timberwolves may be able to attract some solid free agents there way.
The other thing that sets this Timberwolves team apart from those in the past is the youth that they possess. Going into this season, the team has six players playing either their rookie or sophomore season, and a total of ten players who are twenty-six or younger. With a young core of Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad and Glenn Robinson III, who are all under twenty-one, and Gorgui Dieng who is twenty-four going into his second season, the Timberwolves have loads of young talent that is capable of becoming a strong team in the future. Throw in the option to get rid of some of their contracts over the next two years and a solid 2016 free agent class that as of right now includes Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, Lance Stephenson and Chandler Parsons, and this team has a chance to be a contender. At that point, you’ll have Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine entering their third seasons[7], and if all goes right, they’ll be forming one of the most menacing backcourts in the league. Their combined wingspan of thirteen feet eight inches (yes, basically fourteen feet, Jay Bilas is being treated for excited delirium right now) will give offenses trouble, while they also can dominate offensively with their athleticism. This, grouped with the chance to sign a top flight free agent, what we hope is a developed Anthony Bennett, a front court of Thaddeus Young and Nikola Pekovic, and a formidable bench of say Shabazz, Gorgui Dieng, Glen Robinson III and some other bargain bin role players, will leave the T-Wolves in a spot where they can contend going into the 2016-2017 season, which really isn’t as far away as it seems. Finally the Timberwolves have young talent that isn’t a power forward, and the ability to actually surround this young talent with other talented players.
[7] The third year is often the season when star players truly breakout.
The most underrated facet of this deal is addition Thaddeus Young. The twenty-six year-old power forward broke out last season in Philadelphia, reaching new career highs in PPG, APG and steals per game. He brings with him to Minnesota toughness and strength that the Timberwolves never really got out of Kevin Love. While not often uttered in the same conversation as some of the other above average power forwards in the today’s NBA, Thaddeus Young stacks up pretty well with them. As seen here, Young puts up similar numbers as two other guys, Paul Millsap and Serge Ibaka, who are often regarded as some of the better power forwards in the league. Trust me, I see those rebounding and block numbers too, but at 6’8, Thaddeus is an undersized power forward. But what he lacks statistically on the defensive end, he more than makes up for with his athleticism, which is something that separates him from many power forwards in the league.
While he isn’t quite on the level of guys like Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge, or even the man he is replacing, Kevin Love, Thaddeus Young put up very respectable numbers in his breakout season of 2014. Now playing on a more talented team, he should be able to perform at a similar level and allow the young players around him to develop.
Don’t worry, I haven’t totally discounted the Cleveland Cavaliers. I’m not debating the legitimacy of the Cavaliers potential to be great. I really think they will be. There is just too much talent there for them not to succeed. Unless the Cavs don’t go full The Birdcage on us,[8] they should contend for a title for, at the very, the next four years. But the T-Wolves didn’t end up in too bad a situation either. They will go into the season with a projected line-up that looks pretty solid. With that starting line-up and any of those seven players off the bench, the Timberwolves likely won’t really contend in the loaded Western Conference, but will certainly remain competitive throughout the season while their younger guys are able to develop around a nucleus of good veteran players.
[8] The Birdcage had so much promise! The late Robin Williams and Nathan Lane play a gay couple in Miami trying to trick a conservative senator played by Gene Hackman that they are straight as the camp counselor from Heavyweights plays a tabloid reporter who follows the Senator down to Miami! It turned out to be two hours of so-so jokes, a weakly developed plot and a moody Nathan Lane throwing tantrums. Definitely a wasted opportunity.
So if you’re a Timberwolves fan, don’t fret next spring when you see your former franchise star, running pick and rolls with Kyrie in Cleveland as they steam roll through the Eastern Conference, just wait, because a few years down the road, you’ll be looking at your very own contender right there in Minneapolis.
When I first heard about a Kevin Love to Cleveland trade, which included Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett, it was a bittersweet moment for me. A smile ran across my face at the image of LeBron James actually getting to the play the wing again, while Kyrie Irving handled the ball and Love played in the post But at the same time, my heart sank at the idea of a LeBron/Wiggins defensive tandem wreaking havoc on the NBA being stripped away from me and every other NBA fan who appreciates good defense. Those two would have arguably been the most athletic defensive duo that the NBA has ever seen. [1] Now with the trade finalized and the Cleveland Cavaliers receiving Kevin Love, the Minnesota Timberwolves receiving Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett and Thaddeus Young, and the Philadelphia 76ers Receiving Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Alexy Shved and a 2015 first-round draft pick , the inevitable talk now is concerning who won the trade.
[1] With Knicks era Zach Randolph and any era Eddie Curry being the least athletic defensive duo the NBA has ever seen. Not even arguable.
If I were talk to someone who has never seen a single game of basketball in their entire life, and I explained the trade to them this way: one team got a 25 year-old star [2] who immediately makes them more of a title favorite than they already are, while the other team got two unproven talents and an average 26 year-old, who would they say won the trade? They would almost definitely say the team who got the star player did. As would many other NBA fans. I mean, when a team can set themselves up as a major contender for the next five-eight years with one trade, they have to be the winner right? I’m not so sure.
[2] Notice how I don’t say superstar?
While Minnesota may have just given up their franchise player, for the second time in the past seven years I might add, I think that most Timberwolves fans would say that they are pretty pleased with what they got in return. Whenever a team loses its franchise player, they almost always regress. You can look just about anywhere and I guarantee that it has happened there. Going all the way back to when Magic left the Lakers, or the Bulls post MJ or to just a few years ago when LeBron ditched Cleveland, all three franchises took a nose dive after losing their signature stars. This time it’s different. I firmly believe that the Minnesota Timberwolves are better off now than they were during any point throughout Kevin Love’s tenure there.
First off, this organization was really going nowhere with Kevin Love as their star. Love’s career winning percentage is a startling .324% and his team has not once, in his six seasons, made the playoffs or even finished at or above .500%. While it is easy to point at Love’s supporting cast over that period of time and blame that, I’m not going to let him off that easily. So to prove that theory wrong, lets compare him to another, it hurts to say it, failed, former Timberwolves star, Kevin Garnett. Despite being one of the top five power forwards of all time, KG could never quite put it together during his time in Minneapolis. That is where the similarities end; I cringe every time I hear the Garnett example being used as means to bail Love out for his lack of winning throughout his tenure in Minnesota. Along with having a career .541% winning percentage as a T-Wolf, KG led the franchise to all eight of its playoff appearances, once reaching the Western Conference Finals. For me that’s the kicker. That Western Conference Finals squad did include former all-stars Sam Cassell and Wally Szczerbiak and was probably the best that KG played with in Minnesota. But on that team, he was also saddled with sharing the frontcourt with centers Mark Madsen, Michael Olowokandi, Ervin “No Magic”[3] Johnson, Oliver Miller and Gary Trent. Not exactly Murder’s Row. While I will concede that this line-up was better than any of the line-ups that Kevin Love was forced the play with over these last six years, Love’s teams tend to be better than a majority of Garnett’s, yet KG made eight more playoff appearances. Fishy no?
[3] By far one of my favorite NBA nicknames of all time along with the Rolls-Royce duo (Walt “Clyde” Frazier and Earl “The Pearl” Monroe), which was solely based on the fact that they both drove Rolls-Royces. These guys were so good they had two nicknames.
I honestly never had faith in Kevin Love on his own giving Minnesota more than big numbers and a great player to root for. Not a bad package, but not what I want from a superstar[4]. I am not here to bash Kevin Love, because I love his game; his rebounding skills and his unique shooting abilities are one of my favorite combos in the NBA. And I also understand that you can’t win titles in the NBA on your own, even LeBron couldn’t do it, but if you are a superstar, you should be able to at least once will a team to the playoffs, and if not that, a .500% record. So I’m happy for Kevin Love finally getting to play with a few all-stars[5] and that he now has a chance to win, but I’m even happier for Minnesota being able to get rid of him.
[4] Which, like I said before, I’m not totally convinced Kevin Love is.
[5] He has never played with one.
Now let’s talk about what the T-Wolves are getting out of all of this. The additions of Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett are breaths of fresh air into a franchise who aside from drafting Garnett, Szczerbiak and Love have used their sixteen other lottery picks either drafting busts or trading away players (Ray Allen, Brandon Roy, O.J. Mayo, Mario Chalmers and Ty Lawson) who would later, at the very least, become NBA starters. Adding Wiggins give the T-Wolves another young player with star potential similar to their previous situations with Garnett and Love, but this time it’s a little different. When Kevin Garnett was drafted in 1995, Minnesota was saddled with multiple iffy long-term contracts with guys like Christian Laettner and Michael Williams. Not bad players, just not guys you can win with as you’re supporting cast. The same was true when they drafted Kevin Love in 2008; guys like Jason Collins and Brian Cardinal were taking up large chunks of cap space leaving little money for the team to use to surround Kevin Love with a halfway decent supporting cast.
Now just a few months after the 2014 draft, one of the most loaded drafts in years, the Wolves have that drafts first overall pick. While Andrew Wiggins didn’t put up outrageously gaudy numbers in his one season at Kansas, 17.1 PPG and 5.9 RPG, he showed all of us his strong defensive talents, his basketball IQ and his knack for making big plays. When he was drafted earlier this summer by the Cleveland Cavaliers, the thought of him developing along side Kyrie Irving, and the two of them forming one of the NBA’s most talented backcourts had most NBA fans salivating. Then when LeBron made his decision to return home to Cleveland, the idea of those three terrorizing the Eastern Conference together kept me and all of my fellow Eastern Conference fans up at night. But now that the trade is complete, and Wiggins is on the Timberwolves, I think this is the best possible situation for him. Andrew Wiggins is now on a team where he will have the full opportunity to blossom into whatever player he is going become, without the pressure of having to win right away[6].
[6] The Timberwolves haven’t sniffed the playoffs since 2004; I think they can wait another few years.
But this time around, it feels a little different than the other two times the Timberwolves have had franchise players, at least to me. And the reasoning for that is two-fold.
First off, the T-Wolves are actually in a position now to make moves to surround a young star with other talent because for the first time in the past 15 years they aren’t encumbered by big, long-term contracts. Going into the 2014-2015 season, they have just two contracts that last over two years from now, and those same two contracts are the only ones that will demand higher than seven million dollars. Those contracts belong to Center Nikola Pekovic and Guard Kevin Martin. Past that, their longest deals are confined to rookies and players still playing on their rookie deals. Ricky Rubio has one year left on his contract, and depending on how this season goes for both him and rookie guard Zach LaVine, it may be his last in Minnesota. Otherwise, forwards Chase Budinger and Corey Brewer will both be free agents after the 2015-2016 season. This gives the Timberwolves a golden opportunity to not only get rid of older, less effective players, but to add significant pieces to their team toward building a potential contender. Obviously, Minneapolis doesn’t have the same attraction that Los Angeles, New York, South Beach and other NBA cities that pull major free agents possess, but if the organization can build a strong enough team through the draft, and guys like Wiggins and Bennett can develop into frontline players, the Timberwolves may be able to attract some solid free agents there way.
The other thing that sets this Timberwolves team apart from those in the past is the youth that they possess. Going into this season, the team has six players playing either their rookie or sophomore season, and a total of ten players who are twenty-six or younger. With a young core of Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad and Glenn Robinson III, who are all under twenty-one, and Gorgui Dieng who is twenty-four going into his second season, the Timberwolves have loads of young talent that is capable of becoming a strong team in the future. Throw in the option to get rid of some of their contracts over the next two years and a solid 2016 free agent class that as of right now includes Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, Lance Stephenson and Chandler Parsons, and this team has a chance to be a contender. At that point, you’ll have Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine entering their third seasons[7], and if all goes right, they’ll be forming one of the most menacing backcourts in the league. Their combined wingspan of thirteen feet eight inches (yes, basically fourteen feet, Jay Bilas is being treated for excited delirium right now) will give offenses trouble, while they also can dominate offensively with their athleticism. This, grouped with the chance to sign a top flight free agent, what we hope is a developed Anthony Bennett, a front court of Thaddeus Young and Nikola Pekovic, and a formidable bench of say Shabazz, Gorgui Dieng, Glen Robinson III and some other bargain bin role players, will leave the T-Wolves in a spot where they can contend going into the 2016-2017 season, which really isn’t as far away as it seems. Finally the Timberwolves have young talent that isn’t a power forward, and the ability to actually surround this young talent with other talented players.
[7] The third year is often the season when star players truly breakout.
The most underrated facet of this deal is addition Thaddeus Young. The twenty-six year-old power forward broke out last season in Philadelphia, reaching new career highs in PPG, APG and steals per game. He brings with him to Minnesota toughness and strength that the Timberwolves never really got out of Kevin Love. While not often uttered in the same conversation as some of the other above average power forwards in the today’s NBA, Thaddeus Young stacks up pretty well with them. As seen here, Young puts up similar numbers as two other guys, Paul Millsap and Serge Ibaka, who are often regarded as some of the better power forwards in the league. Trust me, I see those rebounding and block numbers too, but at 6’8, Thaddeus is an undersized power forward. But what he lacks statistically on the defensive end, he more than makes up for with his athleticism, which is something that separates him from many power forwards in the league.
While he isn’t quite on the level of guys like Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge, or even the man he is replacing, Kevin Love, Thaddeus Young put up very respectable numbers in his breakout season of 2014. Now playing on a more talented team, he should be able to perform at a similar level and allow the young players around him to develop.
Don’t worry, I haven’t totally discounted the Cleveland Cavaliers. I’m not debating the legitimacy of the Cavaliers potential to be great. I really think they will be. There is just too much talent there for them not to succeed. Unless the Cavs don’t go full The Birdcage on us,[8] they should contend for a title for, at the very, the next four years. But the T-Wolves didn’t end up in too bad a situation either. They will go into the season with a projected line-up that looks pretty solid. With that starting line-up and any of those seven players off the bench, the Timberwolves likely won’t really contend in the loaded Western Conference, but will certainly remain competitive throughout the season while their younger guys are able to develop around a nucleus of good veteran players.
[8] The Birdcage had so much promise! The late Robin Williams and Nathan Lane play a gay couple in Miami trying to trick a conservative senator played by Gene Hackman that they are straight as the camp counselor from Heavyweights plays a tabloid reporter who follows the Senator down to Miami! It turned out to be two hours of so-so jokes, a weakly developed plot and a moody Nathan Lane throwing tantrums. Definitely a wasted opportunity.
So if you’re a Timberwolves fan, don’t fret next spring when you see your former franchise star, running pick and rolls with Kyrie in Cleveland as they steam roll through the Eastern Conference, just wait, because a few years down the road, you’ll be looking at your very own contender right there in Minneapolis.
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